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[Dorfdad]

I just want someone else to step in and force Sony to push harder for better tech than rest on their ass because they got no competition!

 

[rm082e]

I just want someone else to step in and force Sony to push harder for better tech than rest on their ass because they got no competition!

Sony has consistently pushed the envelope every generation relative to their previous console. If they make the PS6 a weak machine, their audience won't be excited to buy it, which means slower sales. That's not in their best interests.

And if you really want max performance, get a PC. All the PlayStation exclusives will come to PC in the coming years. Unlimited powah!

 

[poppabk]

Sony has consistently pushed the envelope every generation relative to their previous console. If they make the PS6 a weak machine, their audience won't be excited to buy it, which means slower sales. That's not in their best interests.

And if you really want max performance, get a PC. All the PlayStation exclusives will come to PC in the coming years. Unlimited powah!

It absolutely is in their best interests. The long cross gen period gave them their best start to a generation ever.

 

[tusharngf]

Buying xbox makes no sense when you get the same games on PC at cheaper price plus no online pay. I think next xbox will be fully digital along with low powered handheld device.

 

[SimTourist]

Time for kinect 3.0

 

[Pop]

Buying xbox makes no sense when you get the same games on PC at cheaper price plus no online pay. I think next xbox will be fully digital along with low powered handheld device.

pC aRe tOo cOmPLiCateD

But ya you are better off just owning a PC if you care about gamepass

 

[Alan Wake]

I think Microsoft are fine with this at this point. They're moving away from hardware and every dip every quarter just confirms that this is the road ahead. Games and services, not hardware.

Shame about Surface, though. I love our Surface devices at home, the laptop is great but a bit pricey.

 

[Luminoth-4545]

With the 42% drop in Hardware year over year i estimate 800K shipped for the quarter for Xbox Series. My Xbox Series estimates are at the bottom of the table.

Hardware Shipments (millions of units).

Note: The PS2 lasted for 13 fiscal Years and was recently confirmed to have reached 160 million.

 

[jm89]

Still not giving out gamepass sub numbers....

We know why they stopped giving out console numbers.

They are probably praying for cod to give a boost.

 

[DenchDeckard]

Buying your way to success!

And all it took was to kill hardware....what a mess.

Series X is still a great console to me in every way. But micorosft have done nothing but fuck up the hardware side, with poor releases and a limping start to the generation.

 

[PeteBull]

Buying your way to success!

And all it took was to kill hardware....what a mess.

Series X is still a great console to me in every way. But micorosft have done nothing but fuck up the hardware side, with poor releases and a limping start to the generation.

Yup, imagine nintendo started doing nintendo-pass with day1 pc releases of all their exclusives, not even higher quality assets but just bumped up to 4k60 or 120fps and some simple rt and better antialiasing put on top- switch would stop selling right away just like xbox series consoles

 

[Snake29]

I think that's it for the traditional Xbox console.

I know Microsoft have said they have a powerhouse console in the works, but I can't see it being released.

They'll probably just take a gamble on a handheld, but no more home consoles.

They’ve never said something about a console. And at this point, i don’t even believe their big talk.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

With the 42% drop in Hardware year over year i estimate 800K shipped for the quarter for Xbox Series. My Xbox Series estimates at the bottom of the table.

Hardware Shipments (millions of Units).

Note: The PS2 lasted for 13 fiscal Years and was recently confirmed to have reached 160 million.

I would be really interested in a breakdown of your methodology on Xbox hardware sales. I think you're overestimating Xbox sales.

For the period ending Q1 2023 we know that the XSX/S were at about 21 million units, your estimates have it at 23.6 million units. Meaning you're at least 1.6 million over but as many as 2.6 million over for that time period.

 

[Panajev2001a]

Darn…

 

[IDKFA]

They’ve never said something about a console. And at this point, i don’t even believe their big talk.

Quite from Sarah Bond this year:

“We’re also invested in the next-generation roadmap. What we’re really focused on there is delivering the largest technical leap you will have ever seen in a hardware generation,”

That sounds like a console to me.

 

[Luminoth-4545]

I would be really interested in a breakdown of your methodology on Xbox hardware sales. I think you're overestimating Xbox sales.

For the period ending Q1 2023 we know that the XSX/S were at about 21 million units, your estimates have it at 23.6 million units. Meaning you're at least 1.6 million over but as many as 2.6 million over for that time period.

Shipped not sold, yes there is usually a 2 to 3 million difference.

 

[BlackTron]

It is almost as if it is being done intentionally to kill hardware sales for some reason, because it doesn't even look like they are trying.

You figured it out. There was no intention for these hardware refreshes to be a success. Just going through the motions.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Shipped not sold, yes there is usually a 2 to 3 million difference.

Where are you gathering estimates on shipments rather than units sold or are you simply creating a buffer? I ask because the historic data that you're using is mixing sales and shipments.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Quite from Sarah Bond this year:

“We’re also invested in the next-generation roadmap. What we’re really focused on there is delivering the largest technical leap you will have ever seen in a hardware generation,”

That sounds like a console to me.

I seriously doubt it would be a console. What they also focused on in their reporting was the focus on high margin premium products, which will probably extend to the xbox brand with the release of a high margin Xbox that is in reality a gaming PC that runs multiple marketplaces. The largest technical leap is made more easily by selling a gaming PC rather than a console, which has always been the case (same with Arcade vs console), but how big the market is for that device is yet to be seen.

Definitely doesn't sound like a traditional console.

 

[Fess]

How are they going to grow something like COD, which has reached market saturation already?

they are screwed big time.

With Gamepass is my guess. I just played my first COD in 2 decades through Gamepass. There are dozens of us!

As for their general situation I think they will try tapping into the Playstation and Switch userbase with more focus. Late ports but also some day 1 releases. Similar scenario as Sony on PC.

Xbox-focused hardware is 100% gone. Can’t see that work, they have nothing ready so their customers will go elsewhere now.
Next thing will be a PC-like device for Gamepass + Steam and other PC stores, one UI for everything. Aimed at console-only gamers who think PC gaming is too complicated.

With the 42% drop in Hardware year over year i estimate 800K shipped for the quarter for Xbox Series. My Xbox Series estimates at the bottom of the table.

Hardware Shipments (millions of Units).

Note: The PS2 lasted for 13 fiscal Years and was recently confirmed to have reached 160 million.

With doing a S and X from the start they literally cut their generation in half. But they don’t have a new generation to start yet. So where do their customers go now? Everywhere except staying on Xbox.
Incredibly bad planning. I said this before. They should’ve had something ready to show this year. Another ”Project Scorpio” unveil, release within a year at most.

 

[Panajev2001a]

Looking at MS Gaming and ABK combined, revenue DROPPED 12%!

MS Gaming Q4 2024 is $5.03 Billion (3.491B x1.44)

As separate companies, MS Gaming and ABK when summed together made $5.7 Billion in the April 2023 to June 2023 period. ABK’s $2.2 Billion was driven off of Diablo 4. MS Gaming was $3.491 Billion ordering to @Welfare ‘s calculations on IB.

At some point the bump will be gone… if you look at the two companies statements combined and then together it is actually a YoY loss. This is MS massaging the numbers heavily.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

With Gamepass is my guess. I just played my first COD in 2 decades through Gamepass. There are dozens of us!

That's not actual growth though. That's cannibalism. The reality is they'll have to continue to raise the price of Gamepass to account for the sales losses associated with CoD, otherwise their overall revenue will see YoY declines continuously.

As for their general situation I think they will try tapping into the Playstation and Switch userbase with more focus. Late ports but also some day 1 releases. Similar scenario as Sony on PC.

After this generation, I doubt we'll even see ports coming late. It'll be PC and PS6.

Xbox-focused hardware is 100% gone. Can’t see that work, they have nothing ready so their customers will go elsewhere now.
Next thing will be a PC-like device for Gamepass + Steam and other PC stores, one UI for everything. Aimed at console-only gamers who think PC gaming is too complicated.

I wouldn't even say the aim will be at people who think PC gaming is too complicated, but rather people who want to maintain the Xbox ecosystem and are willing to pay a premium for it. I could very easily see and 800-1000 dollar Xbox depending on SKU running a higher end video card. The biggest problem is you're not getting 300-500 dollars more in performance, much of that is going to Microsoft's margins, since they're trading away guaranteed digital sales and MTX.

With doing a S and X from the start they literally cut their generation in half. But they don’t have a new generation to start yet. So where do their customers go now? Everywhere except staying on Xbox.
Incredibly bad planning. I said this before. They should’ve had something ready to show this year. Another ”Project Scorpio” unveil, release within a year at most.

Not sure that this is true. I don't think their generation has been cut in half nor do I think it is related to the Series S.

They could come out with new hardware sooner and continue to support the XBS series as they realize sales will continue to dwindle. If I were them I would release the new hardware before the release of GTA6.

 

[Panajev2001a]

If this keeps happening it'll actually be strong evidence by regulators like the FTC to deny future modest/large gaming acquisitions by companies like MS. Beyond just consolidating the market, the numbers dropping with consolidation vs. unconsolidated could be claimed to hurt the overall revenue growth of the gaming market.

Basically, unless these numbers improve by considerable amounts going forward, it's going to be a very bad look for Microsoft going forward WRT future gaming acquisitions. That doesn't even bring up the job cuts they've done since the purchase was completed (or studio closures like with Tango Gameworks).

Good point! To be fair few people outside of nationalistic flag pumping and rabid fans/influencers were cheering the idea of spending over $70 Billions to buy revenue, lie through their teeth, and still destroy value…

 

[Mibu no ookami]

At some point the bump will be gone… if you look at the two companies statements combined and then together it is actually a YoY loss. This is MS massaging the numbers heavily.

That's when I think the board will have had enough of Spencer.

It's why I thought Activision was never a great buy to begin with. All of their franchises were in some level of decline whether it be sales or perception. They were a sinking ship that was becoming more and more focused on CoD rather than the rest of their franchises. It seems like Microsoft has done nothing to change that.

Microsoft has been slow rolling a transition to 3rd party and that transitionary period both helps and hurts Microsoft. Phil has to be more aggressive with it to find increases where he can. Failures like Hellblade and eventually Avowed and Indiana Jones are going to start to pile up.

This is why they increased prices for GamePass, to shore up those numbers in the short term. I don't see anything helping Phil at this point. Their studios are too subpar compared to the rest of the industry and to Sony to drastically improve their numbers within the current roadmap.

I wouldn't be surprised if they discontinued the XBS. They continue to take hardware losses and it would make way more sense to release a high end product with high margins and have people buy GTA6 on that than to keep pushing into the XBS.

 

[SHA]

For 25 years now.

(and it's also time to merge the threads lol)

25 and 32, that's young adult age for each respectfully, that's not the age where people acknowledge what they did, that's not the age to know who they really are.

 

[Fess]

Not sure that this is true. I don't think their generation has been cut in half nor do I think it is related to the Series S.

They could come out with new hardware sooner and continue to support the XBS series as they realize sales will continue to dwindle. If I were them I would release the new hardware before the release of GTA6.

That’s how I see it. They tried to be clever and have a mid generation upgrade from the start, weaker but the power difference between S and X is similar to PS5 and rumoured PS5 Pro, 3x GPU, slightly better CPU, better RT.
And now they have nothing. Phil was asked last year if a Pro would arrive and he said that’s not what he heard the community was asking for. Well, what did the community ask for? Nothing? A dead platform?

It’s so incredibly bad, the planning. They literally have nothing ready, specs rumours would exist otherwise, and they wouldn’t try selling that dumb white Series X. They got caught with their pants down here. And now what? There will very likely not be anything new out for 1-2 years. That’s how you bury a platform.

 

[Vlodril]

Is this the first time they don't report Gamepass numbers? I wonder if it has lost more users instead of growing. Maybe they are waiting for the cod drops next quarter to report better numbers.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

That’s how I see it. They tried to be clever and have a mid generation upgrade from the start, weaker but the power difference between S and X is similar to PS5 and rumoured PS5 Pro, 3x GPU, slightly better CPU, better RT.
And now they have nothing. Phil was asked last year if a Pro would arrive and he said that’s not what he heard the community was asking for. Well, what did the community ask for? Nothing? A dead platform?

It’s so incredibly bad, the planning. They literally have nothing ready, specs rumours would exist otherwise, and they wouldn’t try selling that dumb white Series X. They got caught with their pants down here. And now what? There will very likely not be anything new out for 1-2 years. That’s how you bury a platform.

Having only XSX doesn't change that at all.

They still would not have released a pro model and overall sales would simply have been lower. They would be sub OG Xbox numbers without the Series S.

There's no value in releasing a Pro XBox Series because there is little reason to buy any Xbox at this point. How anyone is still buying an Xbox at this point is a massive surprise to me and I wonder how long they can sustain that. I'm sure there are casual consumers who are buying it based on brand name and history, but they'll fall off a cliff with that at some point.

GTA6 could really help them with just selling to existing Xbox consumers.

 

[LordCBH]

Is this the first time they don't report Gamepass numbers? I wonder if it has lost more users instead of growing. Maybe they are waiting for the cod drops next quarter to report better numbers.

I thought they hadn’t been reporting them for a while now?

Last I remember is they folded like 11 million Gokd subscribers into Gamepass with the rebrand to GP Core and still lost like 2 million subs. But that was what, a year and a half ago?

 

[Mownoc]

Is this the first time they don't report Gamepass numbers? I wonder if it has lost more users instead of growing. Maybe they are waiting for the cod drops next quarter to report better numbers.

We got the 25m number in January 2022 then they stopped reporting it because gamepass stopped growing and it made them look bad.

Phil Spencer confirmed a year later during the Activision FTC stuff that the number had not grown above 25m.

Then with the he rebranding if Xbox Live Gold to Gamepass Core they gave their first update in over two years because they could say gamepass grew from 25m to 34m when really they just found a way to class a bunch of non-gamepass subs as gamepass subs. So how much gamepass grew in those 2 years is highly questionable.

 

[Astray]

One thing that caught my eye was investors actually asking Satya questions about Microsoft's gaming business. And it seems it also caught Tom Warren's eye too:



This newfound investor interest is precisely why Satya immediately started making demands after ABK closed. It's only a matter of time until they ask more questions about the dying brand and why Microsoft even needs it around.

 

[Vlodril]

I thought they hadn’t been reporting them for a while now?

Last I remember is they folded like 11 million Gokd subscribers into Gamepass with the rebrand to GP Core and still lost like 2 million subs. But that was what, a year and a half ago?

We got the 25m number in January 2022 then they stopped reporting it because gamepass stopped growing and it made them look bad.

Phil Spencer confirmed a year later during the Activision FTC stuff that the number had not grown above 25m.

Then with the he rebranding if Xbox Live Gold to Gamepass Core they gave their first update in over two years because they could say gamepass grew from 25m to 34m when really they just found a way to class a bunch of non-gamepass subs as gamepass subs. So how much gamepass grew in those 2 years is highly questionable.

I must be misremembering then that we got something like 30 million and that they had kinda lost some subs. Don't like this not transparency we get (Sony killed the numbers we used to get for NPD back in the PS3 era too).

 

[Topher]

It would have meant I wouldn;t have had access to my PS+ library. Just like if Nintendo had no competition, we'd probably only be able to buy gamers on cartridges and online play probably wouldn't exist.

That's fine, but I'm talking about changes in Sony's market position.

 

[Astray]

I thought they hadn’t been reporting them for a while now?

Last I remember is they folded like 11 million Gokd subscribers into Gamepass with the rebrand to GP Core and still lost like 2 million subs. But that was what, a year and a half ago?

That was in Feb, during the business update podcast saga.

You genuinely could write a LOLXBOX wiki, like the one that exists for the TNA and AEW wrestling promotions and fill it up with all kinds of hilarious shit at this point.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

One thing that caught my eye was investors actually asking Satya questions about Microsoft's gaming business. And it seems it also caught Tom Warren's eye too:



This newfound investor interest is precisely why Satya immediately started making demands after ABK closed. It's only a matter of time until they ask more questions about the dying brand and why Microsoft even needs it around.

Microsoft is already transitioning away from Xbox. They're just doing its slowly as to not rankle the most loyal consumers too much. They'll want them to buy this new Xbox Desktop, which will be priced at a premium.

There won't be any questions to ask once they transition to that new hardware because even if they sell fewer units they'll still be making a profit on it and their focus will have shifted to software and subscriptions anyway.

 

[LordCBH]

That was in Feb

Oh god. That feels like 2 years ago at this point and it’s only been like 5 months.

 

[Fess]

Having only XSX doesn't change that at all.

They still would not have released a pro model and overall sales would simply have been lower. They would be sub OG Xbox numbers without the Series S.

The wording when questioned about a X upgrade was that they have X console already. Dumb of course but that’s how they thought about it. I’ll try finding the interview later, doing some house duties now.
Series S has always sold like crap at my location. Do you know the split? I don’t know anyone who have one.

 

[ShaiKhulud1989]

(ignore this, missed the post above)

 

[Mibu no ookami]

The wording when questioned about a X upgrade was that they have X console already. Dumb of course but that’s how they thought about it. I’ll try finding the interview later, doing some house duties now.
Series S has always sold like crap at my location. Do you know the split? I don’t know anyone who have one.

I continue to try to convince people that they shouldn't take Phil Spencer's comments at face value.

There is nothing stopping them from releasing a more powerful Xbox Series system. GTA6 is going to be on the Series S and the PS5 Pro.

No one knows the split, but at one point the Series S was the predominant system sold. Even if it is 2:1 which would be aggressive, it would still make up a massive number of Xbox sales.

 

[YeulEmeralda]

I just want someone else to step in and force Sony to push harder for better tech than rest on their ass because they got no competition!

The PS3 almost killed PlayStation.

 

[ShaiKhulud1989]

Pretty neat infographics

 

[FunkMiller]

Congrats to Phil Spencer for killing off an extremely good console because he didn't think exclusive games were important.

Let's see if Sony can course correct and not follow the same downward path, in their greed fuelled attempt to corner the PC market as well.

 

[Kabelly]

I remember when Nintendo was for sure going third party even though they had games people wanted to play. Hence, people clamouring for them to go third party.

Microsoft has spent years poaching studios and multiplat games with nothing to show for it and this is the result.

 

[Evil Calvin]

Don't release many great games for years (or even many games at all) and revenue goes down. I guarantee if Xbox released a game like the quality of an Uncharted, Zelda: BOTW, Horizon: Zero Dawn or even a Halo 2, then consoles would have flown off the shelves and Gamepass subs would increase dramatically (and straight up purchases of the games).

 

[GHG]

At least we seem to have moved past the full scale denial that was going on just over a year ago:

Sales-Age - MS Earnings Call - FY23Q3 | 4% decline for MS Gaming, Xbox HW down 30%

Gaming Summary: - Gaming Revenue decline 4% (down 1% CC) - Xbox content and services up 3% (up 5% CC) due to growth in GP - Xbox HW down 30% (down 28% CC) MS Summary: Business Highlights Revenue in Productivity and Business Processes was $17.5 billion and increased 11% (up 15% in constant...

www.neogaf.com

Baby steps.

 

[Astray]

Oh god. That feels like 2 years ago at this point and it’s only been like 5 months.

The darkest timeline is happening fast for Xbox.

Microsoft is already transitioning away from Xbox. They're just doing its slowly as to not rankle the most loyal consumers too much. They'll want them to buy this new Xbox Desktop, which will be priced at a premium.

There won't be any questions to ask once they transition to that new hardware because even if they sell fewer units they'll still be making a profit on it and their focus will have shifted to software and subscriptions anyway.

Yep.

I think the quarter after next is gonna he very interesting because the baseline is going to include ABK revenue in full. No more paper increases in overall revenues like this. It's gonna be apples to apples and I don't think Spencer has it in him to be as good as Kotick was at this kind of game.

 

[HeisenbergFX4]

I seriously doubt it would be a console. What they also focused on in their reporting was the focus on high margin premium products, which will probably extend to the xbox brand with the release of a high margin Xbox that is in reality a gaming PC that runs multiple marketplaces. The largest technical leap is made more easily by selling a gaming PC rather than a console, which has always been the case (same with Arcade vs console), but how big the market is for that device is yet to be seen.

Definitely doesn't sound like a traditional console.

I have said for awhile now the next Xbox approach wont be a traditional console to go head to head against the next Playstation, that method isn't working

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

MS is happy, happy, happy.

 

[Fess]

There is nothing stopping them from releasing a more powerful Xbox Series system. GTA6 is going to be on the Series S and the PS5 Pro.

They could do it but that doesn’t seem to be their plan, we would’ve had some rumours like the Pro specs by now and Mr Talkytalk Spencer would’ve said something. All they say now is that they’re working on the next Xbox and that it’ll be powerful, but their actions say that a Xbox console isn’t needed, don’t worry just use a Firestick and so on.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

The darkest timeline is happening fast for Xbox.


Yep.

I think the quarter after next is gonna he very interesting because the baseline is going to include ABK revenue in full. No more paper increases in overall revenues like this. It's gonna be apples to apples and I don't think Spencer has it in him to be as good as Kotick was at this kind of game.

The only benefit is that it's difficult to do worse than Hellblade.