UK PoliGAF thread of tell me about the rabbits again, Dave.

For comedy reasons I want to see a Lib/Con coalition deal with Europe. Cameron not being able to have a referendum would be a joy to watch.

I'm writing off Labour, there is nothing at the heart of the party, even if there was they couldn't get the message out there. It needs to go away and die.
 
PJV3 said:
For comedy reasons I want to see a Lib/Con coalition deal with Europe. Cameron not being able to have a referendum would be a joy to watch.

I'm writing off Labour, there is nothing at the heart of the party, even if there was they couldn't get the message out there. It needs to go away and die.
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I think this is why there are constant mutterings about the Tories not being willing to go into another coalition with the yellows. Generally speaking I think most of the Lib Dems and Tories are actually pretty happy with what they've been able to pass as a coalition but the referendum issue was a pact with the devil. I think they had to do it, really, and it is giving them good ammo for the election, but they know that it's basically cut the chances of a Lib Dem coalition at the next election down to 0. There's only one thing that I think they could give the Lib Dems in exchange for their support on an EU referendum and that's a PR referendum, but I think the Tories would rather go with a minority government in that situation.
 
CyclopsRock said:
I think this is why there are constant mutterings about the Tories not being willing to go into another coalition with the yellows. Generally speaking I think most of the Lib Dems and Tories are actually pretty happy with what they've been able to pass as a coalition but the referendum issue was a pact with the devil. I think they had to do it, really, and it is giving them good ammo for the election, but they know that it's basically cut the chances of a Lib Dem coalition at the next election down to 0. There's only one thing that I think they could give the Lib Dems in exchange for their support on an EU referendum and that's a PR referendum, but I think the Tories would rather go with a minority government in that situation.
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I would put up with 5 years of naked Thatcherism to end up with PR, the left could start to rebuild, especially if all those EU rules about the state and free markets end up in the bin after a referendum.
 
The poll is really strange, especially the euro polling as it has labour way out front, then Tories, then ukip.

All polls have Cameron way out in from of Milliband, Osbourne in front of Balls, Tories trusted way more with the economy. I cannot work out how that equates to a seven point labour lead.
 
I wouldn't even bother looking at polls until the general election kicks off, labour will lose the lead, it's whether the Tories can get a 6 point advantage that matters.

Until then it's goldfish syndrome, you would need labour to make gaffes every week to change the polls. And it's the people who actually vote who matter, the right have a better track record in that department, probably even more during euros.
 
Nicktendo86 said:
The poll is really strange, especially the euro polling as it has labour way out front, then Tories, then ukip.

All polls have Cameron way out in from of Milliband, Osbourne in front of Balls, Tories trusted way more with the economy. I cannot work out how that equates to a seven point labour lead.
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Because people sometimes vote for more than just the economy. Also most peoples livelyhood has decreased not increased.
 
Dan27 said:
The wage inflation statistic is going to play big going into next May.
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And that's really only one way to look at it. The other, more striking one, is this:

Screen-Shot-2014-03-19-at-22.21.14-544x413.png


(Data from the ONS)

You can ignore the predictions - just the job figures are pretty amazing. If you've been in work constantly since 2010, you may or may not feel much richer right now, but if you went from being unemployed to having a job of any kind, you're likely going to feel richer, and we're talking about over a million people too. The question will be whether these people credit their getting a job with the government or not.
 
PJV3 said:
If you can win an election with only 13% percent of the registered electorate is the position credible. These sort of results make me want compulsory voting.
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The whole thing is a joke, I voted against having a mayor for the borough as you could just tell it would be a corrupt arsehole, and guess what we had someone thrown out of the labour party pandering to the majority Bengali community come out as the frontrunner. Hasn't explained spending in over a year!
 
Nicktendo86 said:
The whole thing is a joke, I voted against having a mayor for the borough as you could just tell it would be a corrupt arsehole, and guess what we had someone thrown out of the labour party pandering to the majority Bengali community come out as the frontrunner. Hasn't explained spending in over a year!
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I'm not keen on elected police commisioners for the same reason, people don't care enough and power is given too easily to people who haven't earnt it.

Scrap the position or make people vote, your mayor simply shouldn't be able to control millions of the people's money when nobody gives a toss.
 
Nicktendo86 said:
The poll is really strange, especially the euro polling as it has labour way out front, then Tories, then ukip.

All polls have Cameron way out in from of Milliband, Osbourne in front of Balls, Tories trusted way more with the economy. I cannot work out how that equates to a seven point labour lead.
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The European polling isn't strange at all? Labour have been leading the polling for Euros since polling on the upcoming Euros election began, the question has always been whether the Conservatives or UKIP would take second place. Recently, the Conservatives have started to establish a narrow lead over UKIP, but head six months back and it was the other way round. The Conservatives aren't really making many inroads into the core Labour vote, they're managing to win back some former UKIP voters; which is reflected both in polling on Europe and the upcoming general election.

Barring a large shift in the political atmosphere akin to the financial crash, I just can't see the Conservatives doing any better than forcing a hung parliament. They haven't converted any of those currently willing to vote Labour in the last 3 years; the best hope they have is winning back a large number of UKIP defectors to win on say, a 36%/35%/14% split, and that just doesn't give them a plurality of seats, so the best they can do is say they won the popular vote.
 
Crab said:
Barring a large shift in the political atmosphere akin to the financial crash, I just can't see the Conservatives doing any better than forcing a hung parliament. They haven't converted any of those currently willing to vote Labour in the last 3 years; the best hope they have is winning back a large number of UKIP defectors to win on say, a 36%/35%/14% split, and that just doesn't give them a plurality of seats, so the best they can do is say they won the popular vote.
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I dunno, I think their best hope is that Labour voters are so disenfranchised by Miliband that they simply stay at home. That'll be all they need in the marginals. That said, I do think it'll be a Tory minority government, but I can see the path to success in basically being Labour losing rather than the Tories winning.
 
Surprised to see more of a fuss wasn't made of the glorious end of ATOS:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26766345

People in this thread that seem baffled by why the Tories aren't leading polls or whatnot might perhaps just not be aware of all the people the savage cuts have affected over the years and the resentment that creates. The whole ATOS piss-shit-pie is just one part of a laundry list of grievances that will come bubbling to the surface when the race begins in earnest.
 
jimbor said:
You should read the trial by jeory website to keep up with the latest, laughable happenings.
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Thanks for the heads up, can feel my blood boiling already and I've only had a quick glance so far.

Edit: Rahman's response is extraordinary, a labour plot against him reported by a biased right wing press? It would be laughable if my council tax money want going towards this cunt.

Double edit: this telegraph article is a pretty good summary of Rahman's tenure. Walking past huge posters of his face, blatent corruption and payments to fake community projects, links to extremists! This borough is looking more and more like a banana republic third world basket case. I feel like I am going insane here, why is no one doing anything about it?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10581958/Borough-of-Tower-Hamlets-a-byword-for-sleaze.html
 
Pie and Beans said:
Surprised to see more of a fuss wasn't made of the glorious end of ATOS:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26766345

People in this thread that seem baffled by why the Tories aren't leading polls or whatnot might perhaps just not be aware of all the people the savage cuts have affected over the years and the resentment that creates. The whole ATOS piss-shit-pie is just one part of a laundry list of grievances that will come bubbling to the surface when the race begins in earnest.
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I dunno how to tell you this, Pie and Beans, but the cuts haven't been even close to "savage" compared to what is going to happen next time, irrespective of who is in power. Our government spending has hardly changed and i still far higher than it was during the middle of the 2000's. The Budgets have repeatedly set back the date at which more cuts will be made - originally our deficit was meant to be gone by the end of this parliament, in reality it's no where close (we borrowed £111bn last year - in 2010 it was forcast we'd be borrowing £60bn). Both main parties have committed to eliminating it by the end of next parliament. There's a storm a-coming!
 
Nicktendo86 said:
Thanks for the heads up, can feel my blood boiling already and I've only had a quick glance so far.

Edit: Rahman's response is extraordinary, a labour plot against him reported by a biased right wing press? It would be laughable if my council tax money want going towards this cunt.

Double edit: this telegraph article is a pretty good summary of Rahman's tenure. Walking past huge posters of his face, blatent corruption and payments to fake community projects, links to extremists! This borough is looking more and more like a banana republic third world basket case. I feel like I am going insane here, why is no one doing anything about it?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10581958/Borough-of-Tower-Hamlets-a-byword-for-sleaze.html
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I live in TH too, and to be honest, it feels so remote to me. I don't care because being a young, professional guy living in a fancy pants tower block, I feel like basically none of the functions of local government affect me. It's not like we're a little town, I wouldn't even notice if my local swimming pool (or whatever) closed down. There are people out there to whom this matters a lot more, but for my part, I just can't find myself to care. I wake up, leave Tower Hamlets, re-enter in the evening, go to the Waitrose in St Kats and go to bed in my gorgeous ivory tower.
 
CyclopsRock said:
I live in TH too, and to be honest, it feels so remote to me. I don't care because being a young, professional guy living in a fancy pants tower block, I feel like basically none of the functions of local government affect me. It's not like we're a little town, I wouldn't even notice if my local swimming pool (or whatever) closed down. There are people out there to whom this matters a lot more, but for my part, I just can't find myself to care. I wake up, leave Tower Hamlets, re-enter in the evening, go to the Waitrose in St Kats and go to bed in my gorgeous ivory tower.
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I have progressed from a council flat in family on benefits to owning (part at least) a flat of my own in a nice block but I still live in the middle of the east end and this really gets to me. It angers me, I wish it angered more people so something could be done :(

As for atos yeah they were shit but as Cyclops has said the cuts have not been that severe at all, relatively speaking.
 
CyclopsRock said:
I dunno, I think their best hope is that Labour voters are so disenfranchised by Miliband that they simply stay at home. That'll be all they need in the marginals. That said, I do think it'll be a Tory minority government, but I can see the path to success in basically being Labour losing rather than the Tories winning.
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They'll need more than that to win the marginals, given the marginals have experienced a greater pro-Labour swing than the country as a whole and generally have higher turnouts in any case. A Tory plurality (not even majority!) requires them to be roughly 2% ahead of Labour; they've not even been ahead of Labour in 3 years.
 
So, the complete collapse of the French socialists today a warning for Milliband? He was a big supporter of them and shares a few policies, although he doesn't mention them very often nowadays.
 
Nicktendo86 said:
So, the complete collapse of the French socialists today a warning for Milliband? He was a big supporter of them and shares a few policies, although he doesn't mention them very often nowadays.
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It is a warning to anyone not to run an inept, poorly-communicating and scandal-ridden government.
 
Pie and Beans said:
Surprised to see more of a fuss wasn't made of the glorious end of ATOS:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26766345

People in this thread that seem baffled by why the Tories aren't leading polls or whatnot might perhaps just not be aware of all the people the savage cuts have affected over the years and the resentment that creates. The whole ATOS piss-shit-pie is just one part of a laundry list of grievances that will come bubbling to the surface when the race begins in earnest.
Click to expand...

If it wasn't Labour who hired ATOS, you would have a point..
 
Crab said:
They'll need more than that to win the marginals, given the marginals have experienced a greater pro-Labour swing than the country as a whole and generally have higher turnouts in any case. A Tory plurality (not even majority!) requires them to be roughly 2% ahead of Labour; they've not even been ahead of Labour in 3 years.
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That's all true, but they never were going to be ahead of Labour during these last three years. For quite a long time the Tories have been expecting the economy to pick up during Summer 2013 and it looks like that was an accurate prediction at least. This will help them in the marginals more than any school reform of railway lines ever could, i think.
 
Dan27 said:
If it wasn't Labour who hired ATOS, you would have a point..
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It is not really relevant to what he was saying though. Rightly or wrongly, Labour will not get blamed for this kind of thing because the Conservatives are currently in power and have not shied away from the punitive measures against the poor/people receiving social security which ATOS is emblematic for.

My predictions:
I really struggle to see the Conservative vote growing. I tend to think the Tory vote has less range but a higher base level than the Labour vote. Given how badly the Tories did at the last election when Labour ran a dogshit campaign, were a mess in no fit shape to govern and were three-times incumbents; I can't see any massive growth there.

The Lib Dems will lose a lot of votes but not so many seats. I've said it before but they tend to be quite resilient on a local level (another reason why polling is not a great measure). They've lost any sympathy voting, that is for sure. But perhaps that never really served them particularly well anyway?

Labour.... it is difficult to see their vote growing on their own merits. I hope they offer something 'radical', if only for differentiation's sake. I think their vote will grow simply because the more social-liberal/student vote will shift towards them (and is being/will be courted by them), while the SDP Liberal Democrats will not shift towards the Tories. Similarly UKIP will siphon more votes from the Tories than from Labour, not in a particularly meaningful sense, but it will help some.

I'd say we probably end up with a coalition again. I lean towards it being a repeat of the current situation, but only around 55-45. It really, really depends what approach Labour take.
 
vcassano1 said:
It is not really relevant to what he was saying though. Rightly or wrongly, Labour will not get blamed for this kind of thing because the Conservatives are currently in power and have not shied away from the punitive measures against the poor/people receiving social security which ATOS is emblematic for.

My predictions:
I really struggle to see the Conservative vote growing. I tend to think the Tory vote has less range but a higher base level than the Labour vote. Given how badly the Tories did at the last election when Labour ran a dogshit campaign, were a mess in no fit shape to govern and were three-times incumbents; I can't see any massive growth there.

The Lib Dems will lose a lot of votes but not so many seats. I've said it before but they tend to be quite resilient on a local level (another reason why polling is not a great measure). They've lost any sympathy voting, that is for sure. But perhaps that never really served them particularly well anyway?

Labour.... it is difficult to see their vote growing on their own merits. I hope they offer something 'radical', if only for differentiation's sake. I think their vote will grow simply because the more social-liberal/student vote will shift towards them (and is being/will be courted by them), while the SDP Liberal Democrats will not shift towards the Tories. Similarly UKIP will siphon more votes from the Tories than from Labour, not in a particularly meaningful sense, but it will help some.

I'd say we probably end up with a coalition again. I lean towards it being a repeat of the current situation, but only around 55-45. It really, really depends what approach Labour take.
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Yup, glad someone gets it. Also its more what ATOS were tasked with doing in this term than their initial hiring, which will fall right at the Tories feet. I did hear some scuttlebutt that their targets dropped so much because employees started not coming in due to the sheer quantity of hate mail and death threats impacting them.

I have no doubt more cuts will come from either winner, but going after some of the most vulnerable first off will definitely come back to bite the blues butt. Bedroom Tax is such an easy chant too, and haha, Murdoch's already picked his winner too.
 
Anyone watch the panorama on our dear leader Luthur Rahman? Programme was actually easier on him than I thought it would be, but hope Pickles sticks to his word and investigates the goings on.
 
Didn't someone say a few days ago Labour has got people who ran Obama's campaign in?
Wouldn't be surprised if it's smaller than Obama's amongst just British people.
 
f0rk said:
Didn't someone say a few days ago Labour has got people who ran Obama's campaign in?
Wouldn't be surprised if it's smaller than Obama's amongst just British people.
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Both parties do, but Labour's (Arnie Graf) has basically been sidelined for being ineffective. I think he wanted more power than Dougie was willing to give him, so he's just disappeared now.
 
CyclopsRock said:
Both parties do, but Labour's (Arnie Graf) has basically been sidelined for being ineffective. I think he wanted more power than Dougie was willing to give him, so he's just disappeared now.
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Was it not found out that he didn't have a work permit so was working here illegally or was that another one?
 
Nicktendo86 said:
Was it not found out that he didn't have a work permit so was working here illegally or was that another one?
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That was the guy, but it wasn't really a big thing. He wasn't breaking the law or anything, there was just some more paperwork he needed to do within the next X time, I think.
 
phisheep said:
I just wish they would get on and do something about harnessing tidal power in the Severn Estuary rather than blather on about windfarms and whether they are onshore or offshore.
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A couple of years ago I wrote a report on the amount of energy that could be extracted from the two large tidal projects. It worked out to peak power output of 18% of UK needs, and with the way the system works, the power is mostly on demand and can be released to the grid as needed unlike wind and solar which don't have adequate storage capacity systems.

The Severn barrage medium project could be built for £13bn, and the Thames barrage medium project for £24bn The more ambitious larger projects would be further out and add around £3-5bn to each, but provide 40-60% more power overall and they would allow for greater storage capacity to ensure peak time capacity.

Heathrow 3, the Thames barrage, Severn barrage and thorium breeder reactors are all necessary infrastructure investments that the government have ducked and delayed in favour of lesser solutions.

They are undoubtedly very costly up front, but in terms of value for money and least environmental impact, they are best in class. As a huge supporter of energy independence the major barrage projects and thorium power along with fracking would see Britain through to the next century with a minimal to zero dependence on importation of energy.
 
phisheep said:
I just wish they would get on and do something about harnessing tidal power in the Severn Estuary rather than blather on about windfarms and whether they are onshore or offshore.
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As a resident of Penarth, 2 miles from the Welsh end of the prospective barrage in Lavernock. It will never happen. Too much Nimbyism.
 
And THAT is the problem with politics today, too much short sightedness. Too scared to make a big decision that will benefit the long term and the government of today will not see the benefit.

All parties are a part of this, and should be ashamed really.
 
Bit of an own goal by Cameron today, saying the RM sale was in Labour's 2010 manifesto. It was implied by 'investment', and we all know they were trying to flog it, but they are now denying it. Shame, he had a good stick to beat them with the selling of gold.
 
JonnyBrad said:
As a resident of Penarth, 2 miles from the Welsh end of the prospective barrage in Lavernock. It will never happen. Too much Nimbyism.
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There was something in the 2010 Tory Manifesto (I think? They were talking about it, at least) wherein local areas could effectively "bid" for large projects like this. Obviously no one wants a nuclear power station on their doorstep however safe it is in reality, but this allowed local councils to say "Ok, we'll host your nuclear reactor, but in return we want a huge upgrade to our local train station, better access to the M1, a new swimming baths and an extra £5m a year for after-school clubs". Another council could then come along and say "We'll do it for the same as them, but without the new road to the M1!"

This way the government get around some of the nimbyism problems for large infrastructure, local councils get a local benefit from infrastructure that benefits the whole nation, and individual residents could potentially see their council tax go down as these things are paid for by national rather than local government.

I don't think it went anywhere though, and obviously it doesn't work quite so well for geographically dependent plans like this, but it offers an idea for how national government can "bargain" with local government to end up with a situation that hopefully benefits everyone, rather than simply paying land owners in the way loads in compensation whilst the rest of the local residents get nothing.
 
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