KoopaTheCasual
Junior Member
Holy shit. The Sony store in my mall is practically a National Treasure, at this point.
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April 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes May 12th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
prag16
Banned
This. Two of the last three months I changed my initial predictions, and both times I was worse off for it.
[PS4] 240K
[XB1] 120K
[3DS] 100K
[360] 75K
[PS3] 45K
[WIU] 55K
Personally don't think the PS4 will sell quite as much as a lot people ITT think, though it'll still be comfortable over 200k. XB1 is a bit of a wildcard, in that I could see it falling off even more than I have it. You'd have to imagine it'll still be over 100k though...
[XB1] 120K
[3DS] 100K
[360] 75K
[PS3] 45K
[WIU] 55K
Personally don't think the PS4 will sell quite as much as a lot people ITT think, though it'll still be comfortable over 200k. XB1 is a bit of a wildcard, in that I could see it falling off even more than I have it. You'd have to imagine it'll still be over 100k though...
SwiftDeath
Member
This. Two of the last three months I changed my initial predictions, and both times I was worse off for it.
Yes. Editing my predictions last minute is something of a tradition for me. Always to my misfortune however
I did ratchet down my last gen and 3DS numbers a little though as historically I've been a bit too optimistic on their performance the past couple months
First week of April most stopped from what I saw
Retail impressions. Ps4 still sells well. It moves units quickly. Definitely much more quickly than xb1 seem to (especially after the price drop went away) if it's moving at the same speed as last month, is hard to tell sometimes. But there's no question that we're selling ps4s at a good clip faster than the xb1
Aquamarine
Member
Thanks as always for the retail channel checks. It's always helpful to have perspective from a major video game retailer.
LicenceToK1ll
Member
Is Sony still selling every PS4 they produce? because the stock situation in the Netherlands and i believe Germany is ridiculous.
Every shop and webshop who get a shipment sell out in a few hours for example the dutch equivalent of Amazon (Bol.com) even has a waiting list of 12 weeks, 12 WEEKS!....
http://www.bol.com/nl/p/sony-playst...hock-4-controller-zwart-ps4/1004004013539792/
The UK and US stocks on the other hand look fine but that's not because a lack of demand looking at the more than decent NPD numbers.
Will Sony struggle to meet demand throughout the holidays at the end of the year? Or are they already stocking up?
Every shop and webshop who get a shipment sell out in a few hours for example the dutch equivalent of Amazon (Bol.com) even has a waiting list of 12 weeks, 12 WEEKS!....
http://www.bol.com/nl/p/sony-playst...hock-4-controller-zwart-ps4/1004004013539792/
The UK and US stocks on the other hand look fine but that's not because a lack of demand looking at the more than decent NPD numbers.
Will Sony struggle to meet demand throughout the holidays at the end of the year? Or are they already stocking up?
Aquamarine
Member
By the way, in terms of NPD retail marketshare, here is approximately where the major retailers lie:
1) GameStop - 30%
2) Wal-Mart - 25%
3) Target - 15%
4) Best Buy - 12%
5) Amazon - 6%
6) Toys R Us - 1%
7) Kmart / Sears - 1%
8) Others - 10%
So any Best Buy retail insights are quite important as a representative sample of NPD. Amazon is important as well, although not as much.
1) GameStop - 30%
2) Wal-Mart - 25%
3) Target - 15%
4) Best Buy - 12%
5) Amazon - 6%
6) Toys R Us - 1%
7) Kmart / Sears - 1%
8) Others - 10%
So any Best Buy retail insights are quite important as a representative sample of NPD. Amazon is important as well, although not as much.
Battle on Amazon.com between PS4 and One
As of 9:15, GMT; May 13th, 2014
PS4 - 4th
WatchDogs
PS4 ($59.99) - 7th
One ($59.99) - 15th
MLB 14: The Show ($59.96) - 17th
FIFA 14
PS4 ($39.99) - 23rd
One ($39.99) - 122nd
Wolfenstein: The New Order
PS4 ($59.99) - 30th
One ($59.99) - 32nd
One + Titanfall - 31st
Destiny
PS4 ($59.96) - 38th
One ($59.96) - 63rd
Battlefield 4
PS4 ($42.80) - 39th
One ($39.45; sold by third party fulfilled by Amazon) - 142nd
inFAMOUS: Second Son ($59.68) - 40th
Call of Duty: Ghosts
PS4 ($41.66) - 44th
One ($32.49; sold by third party fulfilled by Amazon) - 67th
Titanfall ($44.50) - 85th
Diablo III: Ultimate Evil Edition
PS4 ($59.99) - 87th
One ($59.99) - 203rd
Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flaf
PS4 ($48.48; sold by third party fulfilled by Amazon) - 88th
One ($43.12; sold by third party fulfilled by Amazon) - 236th
NBA 2K14
PS4 ($39.99) - 90th
One ($39.99) - 178th
Killzone Shadow Fall ($42.30) - 93rd
Dragon Age Inquisition: Deluxe Edition
PS4 ($69.99) - 100th
One ($69.99) - 116th
The highest next gen game (and game in general) on Amazon.com currently, at 5th?
As of 9:15, GMT; May 13th, 2014
PS4 - 4th
WatchDogs
PS4 ($59.99) - 7th
One ($59.99) - 15th
MLB 14: The Show ($59.96) - 17th
FIFA 14
PS4 ($39.99) - 23rd
One ($39.99) - 122nd
Wolfenstein: The New Order
PS4 ($59.99) - 30th
One ($59.99) - 32nd
One + Titanfall - 31st
Destiny
PS4 ($59.96) - 38th
One ($59.96) - 63rd
Battlefield 4
PS4 ($42.80) - 39th
One ($39.45; sold by third party fulfilled by Amazon) - 142nd
inFAMOUS: Second Son ($59.68) - 40th
Call of Duty: Ghosts
PS4 ($41.66) - 44th
One ($32.49; sold by third party fulfilled by Amazon) - 67th
Titanfall ($44.50) - 85th
Diablo III: Ultimate Evil Edition
PS4 ($59.99) - 87th
One ($59.99) - 203rd
Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flaf
PS4 ($48.48; sold by third party fulfilled by Amazon) - 88th
One ($43.12; sold by third party fulfilled by Amazon) - 236th
NBA 2K14
PS4 ($39.99) - 90th
One ($39.99) - 178th
Killzone Shadow Fall ($42.30) - 93rd
Dragon Age Inquisition: Deluxe Edition
PS4 ($69.99) - 100th
One ($69.99) - 116th
The highest next gen game (and game in general) on Amazon.com currently, at 5th?
i think it all but confirms that XBO sales tanked in april.. Although i was very hopeful that TitanFall might have given it some legs but it look to me that XBO sales are going to be below 150k for April
SwiftDeath
Member
May should probably be worse for XB1 assuming word gets around about the June 9th pricedrop which I'm sure it will
@Aqua Good to see the retail breakdown for NPD
Didn't expect Amazon to be only half of Best Buy
May should probably be worse for XB1 assuming word gets around about the June 9th pricedrop which I'm sure it will
@Aqua Good to see the retail breakdown for NPD
Didn't expect Amazon to be only half of Best Buy
I'm also in the 170K boat.
Could they have dipped below 100K?
I refuse to believe they're below 100k. That would be unthinkable and I'd think they'd have tried to undercut Sony's price rather than just reach parity if that were the case.
They're always the second Thursday of the month.
SwiftDeath
Member
Doubt they dropped below 100K but maybe 110K - 140K is possible
Could be like 120k differential between PS4 and XB1
Maybe April NPD is fine and theres another reason for the price drop but I doubt it
Did not know that. Thanks.
Aquamarine
Member
The reason I ALWAYS say that NPD is 90-95% accurate is because NPD directly tracks point-of-sale information given to them as part of agreements with all of the major retailers:
1) GameStop - 30%
- GameStop / gamestop.com gives NPD their direct POS information for all of their USA-based stores + their website
2) Wal-Mart - 25%
- Wal-Mart / walmart.com + Sam's Club / samsclub.com give NPD their direct POS information for all of their USA-based stores + their websites
3) Target - 15%
- Target / target.com gives NPD their direct POS information for all of their USA-based stores + their website
4) Best Buy - 12%
- Best Buy / bestbuy.com gives NPD their direct POS information for all of their USA-based stores + their website
5) Amazon - 6%
- amazon.com gives NPD their direct POS information for their website
6) Toys R Us - 1%
- Toys R Us / toysrus.com gives NPD their direct POS information for all of their USA-based stores + their website
7) Kmart / Sears - 1%
- Kmart / kmart.com + Sears / sears.com give NPD their direct POS information for all of their USA-based stores + their websites
8) Others - 10%
NPD tracks many other retailers than just the 7 listed ones, but the mere fact that the above seven retailers comprise 90% of the retail market means that, by default, NPD is at least 90% accurate.
The reason I say "90-95%" is because I believe that NPD tracks an extra 5% of the market beyond those 7 retailers, so only 5% of the market is actually estimated.
So whenever websites (like Chartz) claim that NPD is inaccurate or "just an estimate like Chartz," that's based on misinformation. NPD is 90%-95% real data. That's why every major video game company takes NPD data pretty much as fact for the massive sector of the industry it represents (USA physical retail).
PhantomFear
Member
I'm really surprised at Amazon only being ranked 5th. Especially since the electronic departments at Wal-Mart and Target are a joke in terms of selection. Not to mention you practically see tumbleweeds outside Best Buys nowadays.
Edit: Ah, I see from your recent post above that those numbers also include web sales for those stores.
Thanks for this! Had been wondering about this for a while.
You should use the 2014 Best Sellers list, this is pretty worthless.
That is my view as well, but there could have been a huge drop as the reason to buy one disappeared. They would probably also have started selling Kinectless right now had it been sub 100k. May would be brutal otherwise.
In terms of the supply chain, they wouldn't be able to start selling Kinectless right now. They need to create new units (or reprogram all the older ones; unlikely, if they're already in warehouses in the US) with new firmware that don't require the Kinect.
SwiftDeath
Member
Yes I am alwayssurprised that anyone can even question the notion of NPD's general accuracy when the platform holders themselves use them in regards to their shareholders. Obviously NPD isn't going to be perfect but obviously they are close enough to be highly relevant and clearly worth analysts and shareholders paying for access to
Also goes to show how little impact MS's 58 stores or Sony's 11 stores [lol] likely has on overall numbers
As Llama pointed out MS need time to transition and prepare kinectless SKUs. The interesting point however is that MS could've announced kinectless SKU available June 9th on June 8th or June 1st or end of May [much like TF bundle was announced btw]
Instead MS announces today and basically gives up 2 and a half weeks of May sales of XB1
It's odd
And if they sold Wii U numbers they might have had to do it either way
I might be overestimating the impact, but that would leak in no time.
Sectorseven
Member
Won't this be the third Thursday?
Aquamarine
Member
Amazon has grown significantly since the start of the 7th gen in terms of marketshare, but they're still not in a position where they command a large percent of the USA retail market.
SwiftDeath
Member
It's the second thursday after the first Sunday I believe
lightning2k3
Member
MSFT is gonna be in for at least 2 months of hurt. April probably looks horrendous, and the early announcement kills sales for may too. Wouldnt be surprised if the PS4 outsells the xbox one by 300-400k over these two months.
SwiftDeath
Member
Well my prediction that the PS4 will be at least a half a million units head by E3 seems timid now
lightning2k3
Member
What's the current lead in NA?
BeforeU
Oft hope is born when all is forlorn.
lmao what? its not a so much of a price drop then giving people a choice. 400$ you are not getting a Kinect, so people who are still interested in Kinect bundle. Nothing changes for them. 300-400k that's a huge difference. Which I doubt can happen.
Aquamarine
Member
What people sometimes don't understand about NPD accuracy is that their key clients are retailers and video game publishers.
That is, NPD first and foremost makes sure that the needs of their clients (the need for retail sales) are satisfied.
For example, GameStop has >90% marketshare on the $1.83 billion per year used game market. However, major retailers besides GameStop + video game publishers aren't usually very concerned with used game sales because their 15-25% margins come from new game sales.
Therefore, used game sales aren't prioritised in NPD data, even though NPD could very easily gather used game sales from GameStop and show some sales data of the used game market in their reports beyond general market estimates.
So when misinformation like this spreads:
...It creates a false notion of "perceived inaccuracy" due to external factors, but doesn't take into account that NPD produces numbers for a very specific audience.
BlackBuzzard
Banned
I messed up badly.
SwiftDeath
Member
I believe PS4 is leading by ~381k currently, I imagine the lead will increase a fair amount from this Thursday's April NPD results
While I am pretty damn certain that the difference between PS4 and XB1 in April + May will be less than 300k, announcing a $100 cheaper SKU is most certainly going to kill a lot of demand for the XB1 until June 9th when it's available
Yes someone who is dead set on getting a kinect with their XB1 will not be too affected by it but clearly MS believes them not to be the majority of buyers do they?
I've never thought about it like that. Clearly NPD prioritizes certain metrics and focuses their efforts on accurately tracking them. Those Dent tweets are pretty damning but as his reputation is non existent at this point I guess it doesn't matter
You shouldn't even have to keep doing this at this point, Aqua. But I expect the crazies to come out of woodwork again in couple of days...
theprodigy
Member
nice to know
so what happens when a Gamestop rep contradicts Abdiel, do we trust the other guy more cause Gamestop is bigger
May should probably be worse for XB1 assuming word gets around about the June 9th pricedrop which I'm sure it will
@Aqua Good to see the retail breakdown for NPD
Didn't expect Amazon to be only half of Best Buy
ha, good thing I predicted 150k for Xbox One
also last year's March-->April drops were big, so I think everything will underperform to GAF's expectations.....
edit: speaking of which, where's the GAF averages
lightning2k3
Member
You don't announce a new SKU with a lower price 2-3 weeks before its ready for release unless you want to give up sales until the new SKU is out, since people will just wait for the price drop to buy. They've essentially given up on May sales, and that shows that April was terrible and it was more important to get this price drop news out now than salvage what few sales May would have had.
Aquamarine
Member
I guarantee you that a very large majority of people who purchase the Xbox One in June will purchase the $399 version...and will forego a purchase in May to wait for the price drop.
A new, cheaper model always tends to supersede the existing, boring model on a launch month.
DoubleTake
Member
[360] 85K
[3DS] 110k
[PS3] 50k
[PS4] 255K
[WIU] 50k
[XB1] 115k
April must have been a bloodbath for the Xbone, after this price drop announcement no doubt May will be too.
Forget these next two months I want to see how June goes. If the X1 still cant stay near(40-30K) the PS4 that month then they are in big trouble.
[3DS] 110k
[PS3] 50k
[PS4] 255K
[WIU] 50k
[XB1] 115k
April must have been a bloodbath for the Xbone, after this price drop announcement no doubt May will be too.
Forget these next two months I want to see how June goes. If the X1 still cant stay near(40-30K) the PS4 that month then they are in big trouble.
George Claw M.D.
Member
Wow. TRU has had quite the fall from grace. I wonder what their highest percentage contribution ever was. They seemed to be the #1 retail store for video games once upon a time.
SwiftDeath
Member
I'm curious if MS purposefully announced the price drop coming June 9th a couple weeks early to try and move potential May sales into June and possibly go from a real terrible month [may] into possibly winning June against the PS4 and ending what would likely be the 5 month winning streak
A sort of coup to change the XB1 narrative of stagnation and slow growth into a more relevant competitor
A sort of coup to change the XB1 narrative of stagnation and slow growth into a more relevant competitor
Sounds reasonable to me. Didn't make sense to tank almost a month of sales.
This kinect drop is all over my Yahoo homepage already so I think lots of people will know.
lightning2k3
Member
That would actually be a smart strategy.They were gonna lose May regardless, but now they increase their chance of winning June with the price drop and the timeshifted purchases.
Aquamarine
Member
That would definitely be a superior move in terms of manipulating PR and demonstrating Xbox One momentum to shareholders.