• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

April 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes May 12th

The Llama

Member
[PS4] 240K
[XB1] 120K
[3DS] 100K
[360] 75K
[PS3] 45K
[WIU] 55K

Personally don't think the PS4 will sell quite as much as a lot people ITT think, though it'll still be comfortable over 200k. XB1 is a bit of a wildcard, in that I could see it falling off even more than I have it. You'd have to imagine it'll still be over 100k though...
 
Hmm, to change or not to change.
I'm quite certain whenever I second guess myself I end up making my predictions worse.

This. Two of the last three months I changed my initial predictions, and both times I was worse off for it. :(

Yes. Editing my predictions last minute is something of a tradition for me. Always to my misfortune however :(

I did ratchet down my last gen and 3DS numbers a little though as historically I've been a bit too optimistic on their performance the past couple months

Anyone remember when the xbone discounts ended for the most part? Was it late April?

First week of April most stopped from what I saw
 

Abdiel

Member
Your retail impressions or just guesses?

Retail impressions. Ps4 still sells well. It moves units quickly. Definitely much more quickly than xb1 seem to (especially after the price drop went away) if it's moving at the same speed as last month, is hard to tell sometimes. But there's no question that we're selling ps4s at a good clip faster than the xb1
 
Retail impressions. Ps4 still sells well. It moves units quickly. Definitely much more quickly than xb1 seem to (especially after the price drop went away) if it's moving at the same speed as last month, is hard to tell sometimes. But there's no question that we're selling ps4s at a good clip faster than the xb1

Thanks as always for the retail channel checks. It's always helpful to have perspective from a major video game retailer.
 
Is Sony still selling every PS4 they produce? because the stock situation in the Netherlands and i believe Germany is ridiculous.

Every shop and webshop who get a shipment sell out in a few hours for example the dutch equivalent of Amazon (Bol.com) even has a waiting list of 12 weeks, 12 WEEKS!....

http://www.bol.com/nl/p/sony-playst...hock-4-controller-zwart-ps4/1004004013539792/

The UK and US stocks on the other hand look fine but that's not because a lack of demand looking at the more than decent NPD numbers.

Will Sony struggle to meet demand throughout the holidays at the end of the year? Or are they already stocking up?
 
By the way, in terms of NPD retail marketshare, here is approximately where the major retailers lie:


1) GameStop - 30%

2) Wal-Mart - 25%

3) Target - 15%

4) Best Buy - 12%

5) Amazon - 6%

6) Toys R Us - 1%

7) Kmart / Sears - 1%

8) Others - 10%


So any Best Buy retail insights are quite important as a representative sample of NPD. Amazon is important as well, although not as much.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Battle on Amazon.com between PS4 and One

As of 9:15, GMT; May 13th, 2014

PS4 - 4th

WatchDogs
PS4 ($59.99) - 7th
One ($59.99) - 15th

MLB 14: The Show ($59.96) - 17th

FIFA 14
PS4 ($39.99) - 23rd
One ($39.99) - 122nd

Wolfenstein: The New Order
PS4 ($59.99) - 30th
One ($59.99) - 32nd

One + Titanfall - 31st

Destiny
PS4 ($59.96) - 38th
One ($59.96) - 63rd

Battlefield 4
PS4 ($42.80) - 39th
One ($39.45; sold by third party fulfilled by Amazon) - 142nd

inFAMOUS: Second Son ($59.68) - 40th

Call of Duty: Ghosts
PS4 ($41.66) - 44th
One ($32.49; sold by third party fulfilled by Amazon) - 67th

Titanfall ($44.50) - 85th

Diablo III: Ultimate Evil Edition
PS4 ($59.99) - 87th
One ($59.99) - 203rd

Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flaf
PS4 ($48.48; sold by third party fulfilled by Amazon) - 88th
One ($43.12; sold by third party fulfilled by Amazon) - 236th

NBA 2K14
PS4 ($39.99) - 90th
One ($39.99) - 178th

Killzone Shadow Fall ($42.30) - 93rd

Dragon Age Inquisition: Deluxe Edition
PS4 ($69.99) - 100th
One ($69.99) - 116th

The highest next gen game (and game in general) on Amazon.com currently, at 5th?

517MqXtmOIL._SL160_SL150_.jpg
 

noobie

Banned
ok guys how does the $399 announcement affect your prediction and is May pretty much a given for Sony?
i think it all but confirms that XBO sales tanked in april.. Although i was very hopeful that TitanFall might have given it some legs but it look to me that XBO sales are going to be below 150k for April
 

Hoo-doo

Banned
tumblr_lso6d2OLz21r0byljo1_250.gif


May should probably be worse for XB1 assuming word gets around about the June 9th pricedrop which I'm sure it will

@Aqua Good to see the retail breakdown for NPD

Didn't expect Amazon to be only half of Best Buy

I'm also in the 170K boat.

Could they have dipped below 100K?
 
I'm also in the 170K boat.

Could they have dipped below 100K?

Doubt they dropped below 100K but maybe 110K - 140K is possible

Could be like 120k differential between PS4 and XB1

Maybe April NPD is fine and theres another reason for the price drop but I doubt it
 
@Aqua Good to see the retail breakdown for NPD

Didn't expect Amazon to be only half of Best Buy

The reason I ALWAYS say that NPD is 90-95% accurate is because NPD directly tracks point-of-sale information given to them as part of agreements with all of the major retailers:

1) GameStop - 30%
- GameStop / gamestop.com gives NPD their direct POS information for all of their USA-based stores + their website

2) Wal-Mart - 25%
- Wal-Mart / walmart.com + Sam's Club / samsclub.com give NPD their direct POS information for all of their USA-based stores + their websites

3) Target - 15%
- Target / target.com gives NPD their direct POS information for all of their USA-based stores + their website

4) Best Buy - 12%
- Best Buy / bestbuy.com gives NPD their direct POS information for all of their USA-based stores + their website

5) Amazon - 6%
- amazon.com gives NPD their direct POS information for their website

6) Toys R Us - 1%
- Toys R Us / toysrus.com gives NPD their direct POS information for all of their USA-based stores + their website

7) Kmart / Sears - 1%
- Kmart / kmart.com + Sears / sears.com give NPD their direct POS information for all of their USA-based stores + their websites

8) Others - 10%


NPD tracks many other retailers than just the 7 listed ones, but the mere fact that the above seven retailers comprise 90% of the retail market means that, by default, NPD is at least 90% accurate.

The reason I say "90-95%" is because I believe that NPD tracks an extra 5% of the market beyond those 7 retailers, so only 5% of the market is actually estimated.

So whenever websites (like Chartz) claim that NPD is inaccurate or "just an estimate like Chartz," that's based on misinformation. NPD is 90%-95% real data. That's why every major video game company takes NPD data pretty much as fact for the massive sector of the industry it represents (USA physical retail).
 
By the way, in terms of NPD retail marketshare, here is approximately where the major retailers lie:


1) GameStop - 30%

2) Wal-Mart - 25%

3) Target - 15%

4) Best Buy - 12%

5) Amazon - 6%

6) Toys R Us - 1%

7) Kmart / Sears - 1%

8) Others - 10%


So any Best Buy retail insights are quite important as a representative sample of NPD. Amazon is important as well, although not as much.

I'm really surprised at Amazon only being ranked 5th. Especially since the electronic departments at Wal-Mart and Target are a joke in terms of selection. Not to mention you practically see tumbleweeds outside Best Buys nowadays.

Edit: Ah, I see from your recent post above that those numbers also include web sales for those stores.
 

The Llama

Member
By the way, in terms of NPD retail marketshare, here is approximately where the major retailers lie:


1) GameStop - 30%

2) Wal-Mart - 25%

3) Target - 15%

4) Best Buy - 12%

5) Amazon - 6%

6) Toys R Us - 1%

7) Kmart / Sears - 1%

8) Others - 10%


So any Best Buy retail insights are quite important as a representative sample of NPD. Amazon is important as well, although not as much.

Thanks for this! Had been wondering about this for a while.
 

Ty4on

Member
Doubt they dropped below 100K but maybe 110K - 140K is possible

Could be like 120k differential between PS4 and XB1

Maybe April NPD is fine and theres another reason for the price drop but I doubt it

That is my view as well, but there could have been a huge drop as the reason to buy one disappeared. They would probably also have started selling Kinectless right now had it been sub 100k. May would be brutal otherwise.
 

The Llama

Member
That is my view as well, but there could have been a huge drop as the reason to buy one disappeared. They would probably also have started selling Kinectless right now had it been sub 100k. May would be brutal otherwise.

In terms of the supply chain, they wouldn't be able to start selling Kinectless right now. They need to create new units (or reprogram all the older ones; unlikely, if they're already in warehouses in the US) with new firmware that don't require the Kinect.
 
NPD tracks many other retailers than just the 7 more above, but the mere fact that the above seven retailers comprise 90% of the retail market means that, by default, NPD is at least 90% accurate.

The reason I say "90-95%" is because I believe that NPD tracks an extra 5% of the market beyond those 7 retailers, so only 5% of the market is actually estimated.

So whenever websites (like Chartz) claim that NPD is inaccurate or "just an estimate like Chartz," that's based on misinformation. NPD is 90%-95% real data. That's why every major video game company takes NPD data pretty much as fact for the massive sector of the industry it represents (USA physical retail).

Yes I am alwayssurprised that anyone can even question the notion of NPD's general accuracy when the platform holders themselves use them in regards to their shareholders. Obviously NPD isn't going to be perfect but obviously they are close enough to be highly relevant and clearly worth analysts and shareholders paying for access to

Also goes to show how little impact MS's 58 stores or Sony's 11 stores [lol] likely has on overall numbers

That is my view as well, but there could have been a huge drop as the reason to buy one disappeared. They would probably also have started selling Kinectless right now had it been sub 100k. May would be brutal otherwise.

As Llama pointed out MS need time to transition and prepare kinectless SKUs. The interesting point however is that MS could've announced kinectless SKU available June 9th on June 8th or June 1st or end of May [much like TF bundle was announced btw]

Instead MS announces today and basically gives up 2 and a half weeks of May sales of XB1

It's odd
 

Ty4on

Member
In terms of the supply chain, they wouldn't be able to start selling Kinectless right now. They need to create new units (or reprogram all the older ones; unlikely, if they're already in warehouses in the US) with new firmware that don't require the Kinect.

And if they sold Wii U numbers they might have had to do it either way :p
As Llama pointed out MS need time to transition and prepare kinectless SKUs. The interesting point however is that MS could've announced kinectless SKU available June 9th on June 8th or June 1st or end of May [much like TF bundle was announced btw]

Instead MS announces today and basically gives up 2 and a half weeks of May sales of XB1

It's odd
I might be overestimating the impact, but that would leak in no time.
 
I'm really surprised at Amazon only being ranked 5th. Especially since the electronic departments at Wal-Mart and Target are a joke in terms of selection. Not to mention you practically see tumbleweeds outside Best Buys nowadays.

Edit: Ah, I see from your recent post above that those numbers also include web sales for those stores.

Amazon has grown significantly since the start of the 7th gen in terms of marketshare, but they're still not in a position where they command a large percent of the USA retail market.
 
MSFT is gonna be in for at least 2 months of hurt. April probably looks horrendous, and the early announcement kills sales for may too. Wouldnt be surprised if the PS4 outsells the xbox one by 300-400k over these two months.
 
MSFT is gonna be in for at least 2 months of hurt. April probably looks horrendous, and the early announcement kills sales for may too. Wouldnt be surprised if the PS4 outsells the xbox one by 300-400k over these two months.

Well my prediction that the PS4 will be at least a half a million units head by E3 seems timid now
 

BeforeU

Oft hope is born when all is forlorn.
MSFT is gonna be in for at least 2 months of hurt. April probably looks horrendous, and the early announcement kills sales for may too. Wouldnt be surprised if the PS4 outsells the xbox one by 300-400k over these two months.

lmao what? its not a so much of a price drop then giving people a choice. 400$ you are not getting a Kinect, so people who are still interested in Kinect bundle. Nothing changes for them. 300-400k that's a huge difference. Which I doubt can happen.
 
Yes I am alwayssurprised that anyone can even question the notion of NPD's general accuracy when the platform holders themselves use them in regards to their shareholders. Obviously NPD isn't going to be perfect but obviously they are close enough to be highly relevant and clearly worth analysts and shareholders paying for access to

Also goes to show how little impact MS's 58 stores or Sony's 11 stores [lol] likely has on overall numbers

What people sometimes don't understand about NPD accuracy is that their key clients are retailers and video game publishers.

That is, NPD first and foremost makes sure that the needs of their clients (the need for retail sales) are satisfied.

For example, GameStop has >90% marketshare on the $1.83 billion per year used game market. However, major retailers besides GameStop + video game publishers aren't usually very concerned with used game sales because their 15-25% margins come from new game sales.

Therefore, used game sales aren't prioritised in NPD data, even though NPD could very easily gather used game sales from GameStop and show some sales data of the used game market in their reports beyond general market estimates.

So when misinformation like this spreads:

0KOfrTz.jpg


SyCbelQ.png


h0Ad1Xz.png


SYD9Ouo.png


...It creates a false notion of "perceived inaccuracy" due to external factors, but doesn't take into account that NPD produces numbers for a very specific audience.
 
What's the current lead in NA?

I believe PS4 is leading by ~381k currently, I imagine the lead will increase a fair amount from this Thursday's April NPD results

lmao what? its not a so much of a price drop then giving people a choice. 400$ you are not getting a Kinect, so people who are still interested in Kinect bundle. Nothing changes for them. 300-400k that's a huge difference. Which I doubt can happen.

While I am pretty damn certain that the difference between PS4 and XB1 in April + May will be less than 300k, announcing a $100 cheaper SKU is most certainly going to kill a lot of demand for the XB1 until June 9th when it's available

Yes someone who is dead set on getting a kinect with their XB1 will not be too affected by it but clearly MS believes them not to be the majority of buyers do they?

...It creates a false notion of "perceived inaccuracy" due to external factors, but doesn't take into account that NPD produces numbers for a very specific audience.

I've never thought about it like that. Clearly NPD prioritizes certain metrics and focuses their efforts on accurately tracking them. Those Dent tweets are pretty damning but as his reputation is non existent at this point I guess it doesn't matter
 
By the way, in terms of NPD retail marketshare, here is approximately where the major retailers lie:


1) GameStop - 30%

2) Wal-Mart - 25%

3) Target - 15%

4) Best Buy - 12%

5) Amazon - 6%

6) Toys R Us - 1%

7) Kmart / Sears - 1%

8) Others - 10%


So any Best Buy retail insights are quite important as a representative sample of NPD. Amazon is important as well, although not as much.

nice to know
so what happens when a Gamestop rep contradicts Abdiel, do we trust the other guy more cause Gamestop is bigger

tumblr_lso6d2OLz21r0byljo1_250.gif


May should probably be worse for XB1 assuming word gets around about the June 9th pricedrop which I'm sure it will

@Aqua Good to see the retail breakdown for NPD

Didn't expect Amazon to be only half of Best Buy

ha, good thing I predicted 150k for Xbox One
also last year's March-->April drops were big, so I think everything will underperform to GAF's expectations.....

edit: speaking of which, where's the GAF averages
 
lmao what? its not a so much of a price drop then giving people a choice. 400$ you are not getting a Kinect, so people who are still interested in Kinect bundle. Nothing changes for them. 300-400k that's a huge difference. Which I doubt can happen.

You don't announce a new SKU with a lower price 2-3 weeks before its ready for release unless you want to give up sales until the new SKU is out, since people will just wait for the price drop to buy. They've essentially given up on May sales, and that shows that April was terrible and it was more important to get this price drop news out now than salvage what few sales May would have had.
 
lmao what? its not a so much of a price drop then giving people a choice. 400$ you are not getting a Kinect, so people who are still interested in Kinect bundle. Nothing changes for them. 300-400k that's a huge difference. Which I doubt can happen.

I guarantee you that a very large majority of people who purchase the Xbox One in June will purchase the $399 version...and will forego a purchase in May to wait for the price drop.

A new, cheaper model always tends to supersede the existing, boring model on a launch month.
 
[360] 85K
[3DS] 110k
[PS3] 50k
[PS4] 255K
[WIU] 50k
[XB1] 115k

April must have been a bloodbath for the Xbone, after this price drop announcement no doubt May will be too.

Forget these next two months I want to see how June goes. If the X1 still cant stay near(40-30K) the PS4 that month then they are in big trouble.
 
6) Toys R Us - 1%
- Toys R Us / toysrus.com gives NPD their direct POS information for all of their USA-based stores + their website
Wow. TRU has had quite the fall from grace. I wonder what their highest percentage contribution ever was. They seemed to be the #1 retail store for video games once upon a time.
 
I'm curious if MS purposefully announced the price drop coming June 9th a couple weeks early to try and move potential May sales into June and possibly go from a real terrible month [may] into possibly winning June against the PS4 and ending what would likely be the 5 month winning streak

A sort of coup to change the XB1 narrative of stagnation and slow growth into a more relevant competitor
 

Jomjom

Banned
I'm curious if MS purposefully announced the price drop coming June 9th a couple weeks early to try and move potential May sales into June and possibly go from a real terrible month [may] into possibly winning June against the PS4 and ending what would likely be the 5 month winning streak

A sort of coup to change the XB1 narrative of stagnation and slow growth into a more relevant competitor

Sounds reasonable to me. Didn't make sense to tank almost a month of sales.

This kinect drop is all over my Yahoo homepage already so I think lots of people will know.
 
I'm curious if MS purposefully announced the price drop coming June 9th a couple weeks early to try and move potential May sales into June and possibly go from a real terrible month [may] into possibly winning June against the PS4 and ending what would likely be the 5 month winning streak

A sort of coup to change the XB1 narrative of stagnation and slow growth into a more relevant competitor

That would actually be a smart strategy.They were gonna lose May regardless, but now they increase their chance of winning June with the price drop and the timeshifted purchases.
 
I'm curious if MS purposefully announced the price drop coming June 9th a couple weeks early to try and move potential May sales into June and possibly go from a real terrible month [may] into possibly winning June against the PS4 and ending what would likely be the 5 month winning streak

A sort of coup to change the XB1 narrative of stagnation and slow growth into a more relevant competitor

That would definitely be a superior move in terms of manipulating PR and demonstrating Xbox One momentum to shareholders.
 
Top Bottom