It's a two edged sword for sure. While hurting him with the anti establishment movement, it should help with his ground game, if he can use the networks in place.
PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada
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It's a two edged sword for sure. While hurting him with the anti establishment movement, it should help with his ground game, if he can use the networks in place.
aspiegamer
Member
Cruz is risking freefall territory going into ST where the optics are Trump looking like the bandwagon candidate who has mostly similar-ish expressed policies as Cruz (just minus the Bible stuff). Not really sure why the Establishment thinks Cruz voters will all leap to Rubio. Trump will be desperate to get Cruz out after next week, really. He's already serving his purpose to distract and attack Rubio and fracture the "Not Trumps." After ST that's no longer needed.
The debate is going to be sooooooo sooooo so so good. Cruz is a desperate man. He's smart enough to know he's in deep shit. But who does he attack? Going after Rubio doesn't bring in enough new support to ever beat Trump even if he completely humiliates him, and to go after Trump would be suicidal. He's fucked. Rubio really shouldn't be going after Cruz since he needs those votes down the line, but, again, going after Trump would be suicidal. Trump has had 6+ months to prep for attacking Rubio if he ever needed to. The two Senators should both be scared shitless. I smell an accidental co-op murder-suicide incoming. Trump doesn't have to do squat and just watch those two go nuts. He's already got the votes he'll need if he holds position.
The debate is going to be sooooooo sooooo so so good. Cruz is a desperate man. He's smart enough to know he's in deep shit. But who does he attack? Going after Rubio doesn't bring in enough new support to ever beat Trump even if he completely humiliates him, and to go after Trump would be suicidal. He's fucked. Rubio really shouldn't be going after Cruz since he needs those votes down the line, but, again, going after Trump would be suicidal. Trump has had 6+ months to prep for attacking Rubio if he ever needed to. The two Senators should both be scared shitless. I smell an accidental co-op murder-suicide incoming. Trump doesn't have to do squat and just watch those two go nuts. He's already got the votes he'll need if he holds position.
Please proceed governors.
TheLaughingStock
Member
What's Trump's ceiling now in the R primaries? High 30s or low 40s on avg?
Black Republican
Member
There it is!
Officerrob
Banned
Ceiling with the race as is, is mid 40's
Morning Joe playing up Rubio vying to be Trump's VP
Manmademan
Member
Bad move. Neither has any significant political experience. They'd hand that argument to Hillary immediately.
Manmademan
Member
Agree.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I find it funny how Nate has been slightly moving up Trump's ceiling since the beginning while still talking like he can't win the nomination.
Elaugaufein
Member
To be fair to Nate if the RNC had knifed all but one of their own before Iowa they probably could have wrapped things up by now. They'd be running barely ahead of Trump , and they might have ended up having to give Cruz a nice horse (Supreme Court ?) at the convention but they'd clearly have the upper hand.
It was pretty funny listing to their podcast when they all were hold or sell on Trump's betting numbers (when Trump was listed at 50% chance of winning the nomination) and now he's up to 70%. They were basically giving the odds they thought and not reacting to where the market would go after Nevada.
Wiz kid Harry bout to hold this L
Roland_Gunner
Member
I can't find the details, but per Nate Cohn, the people who vote in Nevada's caucuses are very, very religious. Interestingly, Cruz did outperform Rubio in the Mormon areas of the state. Rubio was a member of LDS for a while and generally has good relations there.
Watching CNN and I seriously think Reince Preibus is drunk or something.
See for yourself: https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/702487354880163841
See for yourself: https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/702487354880163841
Elaugaufein
Member
I always through the Fundamentalist / Mormon relationship was pretty much we hate those other guys more, so I'm surprised Cruz beat Rubio there (unless they view Rubio as some kind of traitor ?)
His hold on this dimension is weakening as the RNC is losing power , if Trump is not Stumped, soon all that will be left is an empty(ier) suit.
Officerrob
Banned
Yeah, there is definitely something off about him this morning (more than usual)
Rubio: 70% of republicans will not vote for trump!
Rubio: 65% of republicans will not vote for trump!
Rubio: ...55% of republicans will not vote for trump! *tugs at collar*
What does that say about his numbers?
Also the 3-2-1 strategy is pretty close to working. If not for his firmware failure in that debate, he'd have gone 3-2-2-2-2-2-2-2 which isn't a bad place to be if you think trump will melt down after March 8.
Rubio: 65% of republicans will not vote for trump!
Rubio: ...55% of republicans will not vote for trump! *tugs at collar*
What does that say about his numbers?
Also the 3-2-1 strategy is pretty close to working. If not for his firmware failure in that debate, he'd have gone 3-2-2-2-2-2-2-2 which isn't a bad place to be if you think trump will melt down after March 8.
Agree. Another small boost of a few points, and his national ceiling gets ratcheted up another notch.
Then Super Tuesday comes along, and he gets a decent boost. At this point, the bandwagon effect becomes more pronounced and he's nearing that 45-50% mark. With Rubio needing more than 55% of the remaining delegates, merely splitting the remaining contests won't be enough; he'd need to win a disproportionate number of them.
This could be over on the 15th when he wins Ohio and/or Florida. I wonder how long the denialism can continue. And I really look forward to the freakout that the GOP establishment is about to have in front of the entire world.
aspiegamer
Member
Oh Reince, silly boy, one of the "benefits" of the Super Delegate system is that it's designed to prevent the crap that's happening to your party right now. Now isn't the time for you to be mocking it. You could force Rubio through if you used that exact same system right now.
And yeah, he sounds drunk. And in denial. "Let the delegates decide" is code for "we're going to rig the vote on the floor."
What are you talking about? Saying a minority of a minority group don't likely represent the interests or tastes of the majority of a minority group is just stating facts. It's like saying water is wet. No ethnic group is a monolith but significant chunks of them may and do vote in specific ways for specific, discernible reasons. Even arguing the may be voting against the interests of most people in the same minority group isn't a controversial statement either.
Kasich gonna ride this til the wheels fall off tho
He also had a weird reaction when we discuss the fact the African American vote is not behind Sanders. Despite that being true as well.
He won't stay in after Ohio. That is just liberal wishful thinking there. Just like when we all hoped Jeb would stay in till Florida.
Man, I hear you. A large part of my life involves the internet and digital communications, and this stuff is very scary. But it's just not one of the issues of this election. I'm sorry, but it's just not. People are agitating and will continue to agitate to bring this closer to the fore, but it just doesn't have the traction right now.
Not voting isn't going to make politicians suddenly realize, "shit, we better back off on the spying!" What not voting is going to do is affect the issues that are being contested this election. And I'm damn sure not giving up Roe v. Wade, Obergefell, the PPACA, and the VRA. There's also a lot of potential progress to be made in criminal justice, equal rights, and everything else we discuss here daily. We vote the election we have, not the election we want. That's reality.
Also, to be blunt, this absolutely is the America you grew up in. COINTELPRO was a thing. You might want to stop focusing on the current horrors of privacy violation and read up on some history, and you might discover that we aren't experiencing something fundamentally new here. It's worth fighting against, but it's not some out of nowhere totalitarian tipping point beyond which we are forever doomed. Calm down.
Roland_Gunner
Member
If, and I'm just saying if, Kasich wins Ohio why not stay in for another week or two? Its a winner take all state so he could possibly have more delegates than Rubio by then. If you're Kasich there's a 1% the party rallies around you and you get the nomination at that point. He's never going to be closer to the Presidency than that.
He doesn't want to piss off the party permanently. He is a guy angling for a VP or cabinet spot. He is out after Super Tuesday.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
You need a "1" for that plan to work. Right now, I'm not seeing where that "1" occurs. Plus, not only that, you have to have many "1s." Poll numbers show he isn't even close at this point.
Tomorrow's debate is going to be huge.
Roland_Gunner
Member
Eh, the Republican party doesn't look that scary right now. Kasich is a popular governor, what can they really do to him? You mention the VP spot but I really don't think he would even want to run with Trump. Yeah, he could be Rubio's VP but Marco's stock isn't so high either.
Trump is going to hang himself by saying religious people are retarded or something.
He should stay in through Ohio. Otherwise there's no reason to stay in at all.
Macho Madness
Member
What did Sanders just do? I saw something about poverty.
l would love to know, how much pressure he already got.
brainchild
Banned
The human subjective experience (which is what the rationality behind an individual vote comes down to) should not be distilled down to statistics of probability. It would be extremely egregious and disrespectful to do so, and it carries the implication (unintentional or not) that minority groups are robots of specific kinds of programming that trends in certain directions. Someone voting against their own interests ALREADY REPRESENTS THEIR OWN INTERESTS BY DEFINITION. If that person's interests reflect the majority interest, then they represent the majority of their demographic, even if they don't vote the same way the majority votes.
This has nothing to do with the ability to make an objective prediction that is based on facts. This has to do with tact, and how you handle conversations surrounding people groups. If I'm a Hispanic, and I told you that I voted for Trump, without providing any additional information as to why I voted for him, and then you told me that I likely don't represent the majority of my race because most Hispanics aren't likely to vote for Trump, I would seriously question your racial sensitivity.
To be fair, this is not just a problem on poliGAF, but with pundits and the media in general. I have never liked how they've discussed voting trends when it comes to minorities, but this was just an opportunity to talk about it.
gutter_trash
Banned
We are talking politics. Demographics are a VERY accurate way at grouping people by how they vote.
It isn't racist, its facts.
African Americans support Hillary. White Evangelicals vote Republican. Etc.
brainchild
Banned
Then you don't understand what I'm saying because I'm not disputing the facts of voting trends. Please re-read my post.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
To give him credit, he is a smart politician. If he is going to say it, he won't say it until after the south primaries.
Again, Rubio in third.
benjipwns
Banned
The Republicans do have a similar system, it's just a smaller % of overall delegates. It's why there's "undecideds" they're the state party chairs.
And there won't be a contested floor vote, the nominee will be decided before then. That's what the WTA wave is for.
Plus, Kasich would be 72 in 2024.
That is shockingly high for Rubio.
Officerrob
Banned
Rubio's senior campaign advisor (Jason Roe) was just asked if Rubio can win a state next Tuesday, he dodged the question
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Establishment darling in Texas? That's not shockingly high.
FloydtheFathead
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