PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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So Bernie ended up overperforming his delegate target in Michigan by 2. The problem is that on the same night, he underperformed his delegate target in Mississippi by 9. He's been doing that all over, making his small wins mean next to nothing.

Clinton underperformed in Michigan by 2, and overperformed in Mississippi by by 9. Keep things at least close going forward, there's no way Bernie catches up.
 
Oltsu said:
pls. DWS is doing a great PR job for hillary, no need to worry.
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haha DWS doing a great job? 😂

Macho Madness said:
So Bernie ended up overperforming his delegate target in Michigan by 2. The problem is that on the same night, he underperformed his delegate target in Mississippi by 9. He's been doing that all over, making his small wins mean next to nothing.

Clinton underperformed in Michigan by 2, and overperformed in Mississippi by by 9. Keep things at least close going forward, there's no way Bernie catches up.
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Dude. This isn't about delegates it's about some potentially crippling Clinton flaws.

Btw where the hell is dramatis?
 
NeoXChaos said:
CdHKC7HWwAAKZpu.jpg:large
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This is actually fascinating, if anything this MI primary reminds us to keep an eye on both longer trends and the most recent data.

Also a message to Poligaf in general: I dont post super often but lurk and read all your posts, and I want to let you all know how much I value this as a source of following the election, you guys keep it fun and insightful. Thanks for all the time you all spend posting, and making me a better and more educated voter.
 
Splendor said:
This is actually fascinating, if anything this MI primary reminds us to keep an eye on both longer trends and the most recent data.

Also a massage to Poligaf in general: I dont post super often but lurk and read all your posts, and I want to let you all know how much I value this as a source of following the election, you guys keep it fun and insightful. Thanks for all the time you all spend posting, and making me a better and more educated voter.
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We love you too
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I wonder if Trump dominating Hawaii is a good sign that he can win in California (where there are also no Republicans and the ones that are left are more liberal) even one-on-one against Cruz.
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benjipwns said:
Except for that whole swath of hardcore conservatives running down the center of the state.

EDIT: Some of the most conservative House members come from pretty safe CA districts: Tom McClintock, Ed Royce, Dana Rohrabacher, Darrell Issa, the two Duncan Hunters, Kevin McCarthy,
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To add to what Benji said, do not make the mistake of thinking that by living in California, it has somehow made the republicans here less rightwing. It hasn't. We just have a lot of cities and a lot of people in those cities, hence why we have a democrat governor and both state congresses controlled by democrats. The rural areas are still right wing as fuck, they are just way outnumbered.
 
Aaron Strife said:
Still think Hillary will sweep next Tuesday. I'd rather side with the polls than whether or not I'm shook.
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I concur. Freaking out at any misstep does not a winner make. Hilary should learn to stick to places til the end to ensure her winning, but overall nothing major has happened.
 
Cheebo said:
Republicans dominate our state at the local and state level however sadly. Our state Democratic Party is a complete joke and we seem to be unable to nominate winnable candidates for the big statewide races.
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Having midterm elections for your governor and state senate are a real bitch in these times. But even that doesn't explain it all. You guys desperately need your state Democrats to reboot, lest you end up like Wisconsin.
 
Drakeon said:
To add to what Benji said, do not make the mistake of thinking that by living in California, it has somehow made the republicans here less rightwing. It hasn't. We just have a lot of cities and a lot of people in those cities, hence why we have a democrat governor and both state congresses controlled by democrats. The rural areas are still right wing as fuck, they are just way outnumbered.
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It also helps that you got a load of republican governors that royally fucked things up.

Which also made me see Jerry Brown's official portrait.
Gubernatorial_portrait_of_Jerry_Brown.jpg
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heh

Why did Gray Davis get such a quick boot, tho? Ahnold too stronk?
Ah, electricity crisis.
holy shit what a mess
 
Chichikov said:
As hilarious as I think the panic from Donald "When was the last time you saw a Chevrolet in Tokyo?" Trump is now, at least it's less embarrassing than when people were freaking out about Rubio.
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With hindsight, the freakout over Rubio would make a pretty perfect definition for the phrase "premature consternation".
 
That whole agreement in California between the two parties to minimize the number of competitive districts is why they have so many batshit progressives AND batshit conservatives. Ed Royce's district is surrounded on all sides except one by D+10 or higher districts. He's won eleven consecutive elections.

Though we'll have to see if the districts drawn from the 2012 reform will shuffle things out since some people just won by being incumbents.

Even their moderates are goofy. Senator/Governor Pete Wilson was pro-choice and anti-immigrant and had a variety of weird 90's views. Gray Davis and Arnaalllddd went against their parties on all kinds of stuff. (Yet both were "dream All-Star candidates" for their parties except for that one problem here and there.) Jerry Brown can be an epic fiscal hawk and also have some wacky pie-in-the-sky idea like building a space elevator to Mars in the same thought.

Then you've got Gavin Newsom hanging around still. The "hard-right conservative" who was destroying America by giving out gay marriages in San Francisco.

Coriolanus said:
Why did Gray Davis get such a quick boot, tho? Ahnold too stronk?
Ah, electricity crisis.
holy shit what a mess
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That was like the nail in the coffin for him. The guy went from MODEL DEMOCRAT, FUTURE PRESIDENT to FUCK HE'LL MURDER US ALL basically overnight alienating all sorts of would be allies on almost everything imaginable. While actually not really doing anything different.

Funnily enough the same thing happened to Arnold. Which is why he tried to do those ballot initiatives thinking he still "had the people" behind him.

California is great. Home of Herbert Hoover, Richard Nixon, and Ronald Reagan! (And no other Presidents...though Nixon was the only one born there.)
 
I'm back into the phase where I'm scared of Trump. Maybe Free v. Fair Trade will be an election issue this year. It's one I think he could do well on. Fingers crossed that he still ladies shit because of his poor opinion among the Everyone demographic.
 
benjipwns said:
That whole agreement in California between the two parties to minimize the number of competitive districts is why they have so many batshit progressives AND batshit conservatives. Ed Royce's district is surrounded on all sides except one by D+10 or higher districts. He's won eleven consecutive elections.

Though we'll have to see if the districts drawn from the 2012 reform will shuffle things out since some people just won by being incumbents.

Even their moderates are goofy. Senator/Governor Pete Wilson was pro-choice and anti-immigrant and had a variety of weird 90's views. Gray Davis and Arnaalllddd went against their parties on all kinds of stuff. (Yet both were "dream All-Star candidates" for their parties except for that one problem here and there.) Jerry Brown can be an epic fiscal hawk and also have some wacky pie-in-the-sky idea like building a space elevator to Mars in the same thought.

Then you've got Gavin Newsom hanging around still. The "hard-right conservative" who was destroying America by giving out gay marriages in San Francisco.


That was like the nail in the coffin for him. The guy went from MODEL DEMOCRAT, FUTURE PRESIDENT to FUCK HE'LL MURDER US ALL basically overnight alienating all sorts of would be allies on almost everything imaginable. While actually not really doing anything different.

Funnily enough the same thing happened to Arnold. Which is why he tried to do those ballot initiatives thinking he still "had the people" behind him.

California is great.
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Mostly America just recapitulates California. Donald Trump is just a national-level Governator, with Sanders and Clinton playing the competing Dem candidates that knocked each other out to let Arnold win.



Hey, wait a second.
 
Ted Cruz. "God bless the people of Miami. Y'all know how to make a Cuban feel welcome".

HE ADMIITTED IT. SUE HIM, BRING IT TO THE SCOTUS!!!!
 
The Lamonster said:
So is there a consensus yet on how Bernie won last night?

Should we talk about this Tweet again?

https://twitter.com/BernieSanders/status/705442673788854272
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Amazing how Hillary is dishonest about the auto bailout and that hurts her. Bernie on the other hand acts like Hillary is solely responsible for Detroit bring in such bad shape and that's just fine? He clarified himself during the debate but the tweet is what people remember.

So wrong.
 
The Lamonster said:
So is there a consensus yet on how Bernie won last night?

Should we talk about this Tweet again?

https://twitter.com/BernieSanders/status/705442673788854272
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Biggest consensus I have seen is that the race was always close, polls did not factor independents enough, and so expectations were skewed. Also Hilary was lax in the last week and assumed she had the win, while Bernie focused all his work in MI. Unforced error by Clinton to be frank.

Also that tweet is a non-factor.
 
The Lamonster said:
So is there a consensus yet on how Bernie won last night?

Should we talk about this Tweet again?

https://twitter.com/BernieSanders/status/705442673788854272
Click to expand...

My favored theory is crossover voting.

91,000 Democrats voted in the GOP primary in Michigan. The Democratic primary race was decided by like 30,000 votes. Meanwhile 28% of that vote was "independent."

Hillary took Michigan for granted and underinvested -> Hillary Dems assumed Michigan didn't matter or was wrapped up -> Hillary Dems vote for Kasich or Bernie -> Hillary loses. Toss in a few GOP voters crossing over to vote for Bernie because they think he's the easier candidate.
 
pigeon said:
Mostly America just recapitulates California. Donald Trump is just a national-level Governator, with Sanders and Clinton playing the competing Dem candidates that knocked each other out to let Arnold win.



Hey, wait a second.
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Are you trying to give cartoon_soldier and Diablos an aneurysm?
 
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