PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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The Lamonster said:
^ So was MI a fluke? Will the Clinton campaign (and Dem voters) wise up?

It's going to be a long week, either way.
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Let's hope. She needs to get the word out that this isn't over yet. I wonder if the messaging of her latest emails hurt. She kept saying "help me wrap up the nomination so we can focus on Trump" and some people took that as "well it's over for Berns so I'll vote not-Trump"
 
Macho Madness said:
Let's hope. She needs to get the word out that this isn't over yet. I wonder if the messaging of her latest emails hurt. She kept saying "help me wrap up the nomination so we can focus on Trump" and some people took that as "well it's over for Berns so I'll vote not-Trump"
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Oh come on.
 
Fiorina endorsed Cruz and is on stage speaking at his rally in FL. Looking for VP nod (assuming he gets the nomination, which is obviously an uphill battle to say the least).
 
Gabriel Debenedetti ‏@gdebenedetti 1h1 hour ago
New Univision/Washington Post poll shows Clinton with a 38-point lead among Dems (48 among Latinos) here in Florida
 
Quinnipiac U FL/OH polls posted yet?

1) 2016 Florida Republican Presidential Primary
Asked of 657 likely voters - democrat
Ted Cruz (R) 18%
John Kasich (R) 8%
Marco Rubio (R) 22%
Donald Trump (R) 45%
Other 1%
Undecided 6%

I thiiink that "democrat" is a typo?

1) 2016 Ohio Republican Presidential Primary
Asked of 685 likely voters - republican
Ted Cruz (R) 16%
John Kasich (R) 32%
Marco Rubio (R) 9%
Donald Trump (R) 38%
Undecided 5%
 
The Lamonster said:
^ So was MI a fluke? Will the Clinton campaign (and Dem voters) wise up?

It's going to be a long week, either way.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't call it a fluke. Clinton screwed up, in my view, it's not like an accident happened.

I think we need to see more data before really knowing anything. Obviously everybody needs to postmortem everything, even the pundits are writing "man, I hope somebody postmortems this."

But, you know, even if Bernie gets a 20 point bump in every state yet to vote, Hillary still wins the nomination. He needs to see even larger increases in some of the larger states. That, at least, should be visible in the polls.

If you live in California I would probably get registered.
 
pigeon said:
My favored theory is crossover voting.

91,000 Democrats voted in the GOP primary in Michigan. The Democratic primary race was decided by like 30,000 votes. Meanwhile 28% of that vote was "independent."

Hillary took Michigan for granted and underinvested -> Hillary Dems assumed Michigan didn't matter or was wrapped up -> Hillary Dems vote for Kasich or Bernie -> Hillary loses. Toss in a few GOP voters crossing over to vote for Bernie because they think he's the easier candidate.
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91k Dems really voted in the GOP primary? Damn.
 
RustyNails said:
Rubio denied completely last night. LOL

Bye little marco.
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He got one delegate.

KuGsj.gif
 
Frank the Great said:
91k Dems really voted in the GOP primary? Damn.
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Okay, I sourced that from GAF, so it may turn out to be bullshit. Let me double check.

Google says there were 1,253,917 total votes in the GOP primary.

CNN exit polls says 7% were Democrats in party affiliation.

7% of 1,253,917 is 87,774.

So 91k is a little high, but approximately right.
 
Sea Manky said:
Now now, his lie just did better than her lie. He won fair and square.
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One big question I've had about Bernie-as-nominee: How nasty is he willing to get?

Because we know that the GOP will see this November as a fight for its life. If they lose, whole swaths of their agenda - at all levels of government - go out the window for a generation. Social conservatism, corporations as persons with their own interests & rights.. It's an understatement to say that either Democrat winning in November would shift the political landscape in ways we haven't seen in 30+ years.

With these stakes in mind, they're going to dredge-up every possible hinky thing from his past, and they'll relentlessly slime him with it. Even if it's something innocent and benign, it won't stop them from contorting it into something dispicable.

That Detroit tweet from his team was pretty damn nasty. As a Hillary guy, I didn't care for it. But conversely, it's nice to see that his team has the potential to play dirty. That's encouraging.
 
538 adjusted their forecasts going forward to try and save face and have better predictions.

Under the new model, it still would have predicted Hillary winning MI with a 98% chance.
 
CBS This Morning ✔ ‎@CBSThisMorning
Sources tell @CBSNews Rubio’s inner circle is in conversations about campaign’s future. One option: dropping out before Tuesday’s FL primary
 
Cruz's way of delivering speeches, he pauses way too much (for applause lines.?)


i honestly didnt notice this before

PBY said:
CBS This Morning ✔ ‎@CBSThisMorning
Sources tell @CBSNews Rubio’s inner circle is in conversations about campaign’s future. One option: dropping out before Tuesday’s FL primary
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all those absentee votes though, damn what a waste
 
PBY said:
CBS This Morning ✔ ‎@CBSThisMorning
Sources tell @CBSNews Rubio’s inner circle is in conversations about campaign’s future. One option: dropping out before Tuesday’s FL primary
Click to expand...

DELIVER THE PROMISED LAND TO TRUMP!
 
Macho Madness said:
Let's hope. She needs to get the word out that this isn't over yet. I wonder if the messaging of her latest emails hurt. She kept saying "help me wrap up the nomination so we can focus on Trump" and some people took that as "well it's over for Berns so I'll vote not-Trump"
Click to expand...
Yup I'm going to go with this. She needs to stop talking about GOP and Trump and focus on Bernie and issues. Combined with the numbers of 90k moronic democrats crossing over into GOP, she lost. Pivoting to general when big delegate states are at play is a dumb move. I mean, even Trump hasn't pivoted to the general and he's in a similar if not slightly better shape than Hillary.
Black Republican said:
Cruz's way of delivering speeches, he pauses way too much (for applause lines.?)


i honestly didnt notice this before
Click to expand...
Seriously you haven't noticed this? Cruz' dramatic pauses are legendary. It's like a hollywood production.
 
Black Republican said:
Cruz's way of delivering speeches, he pauses way too much (for applause lines.?)


i honestly didnt notice this before
Click to expand...
I think some of this results from only the candidates being mic'd and the networks turning down the crowd noise so you can hear them.

There was a Trump one the other day where they were clearly cheering a lot but you could only hear him.
 
PBY said:
CBS This Morning ✔ ‎@CBSThisMorning
Sources tell @CBSNews Rubio’s inner circle is in conversations about campaign’s future. One option: dropping out before Tuesday’s FL primary
Click to expand...

It is too late Rubio. You are a joke. You have embarrassed yourself on the national stage, and you haven't got a hope of ever making nominee again. Go back to Florida, run for governor, do nothing of note, and then fuck off to somewhere where you can't do any more damage. Good riddance you useless, pathetic fuck.
 
RustyNails said:
Yup I'm going to go with this. She needs to stop talking about GOP and Trump and focus on Bernie and issues. Combined with the numbers of 90k moronic democrats crossing over into GOP, she lost. Pivoting to general when big delegate states are at play is a dumb move. I mean, even Trump hasn't pivoted to the general and he's in a similar if not slightly better shape than Hillary.
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He's in better shape because of the way the primary is setup. Berns probably would be already mathematically eliminated if the Democratic race was run with Republican rules.
 
PBY said:
CBS This Morning ✔ ‎@CBSThisMorning
Sources tell @CBSNews Rubio’s inner circle is in conversations about campaign’s future. One option: dropping out before Tuesday’s FL primary
Click to expand...

That would be a way to save face, I guess.

He is young and hispanic. If he plays his cards right, he can run again and be competitive (specially if Trump nomination ends up in an absolute fiasco during the generals).
 
Damn Gawker, this is savage

Marco Rubio Should Focus His Campaign on One Thing: Winning Dancing With the Stars
http://gawker.com/marco-rubio-should-focus-his-campaign-on-one-thing-win-1763628134
Marco Rubio can’t help the fact that he will exit the current election cycle a loser, one characterized by his bullying opponent as a feeble lightweight unable to shine when it really matters. But he can enter the next cycle—where, once again, there appears to be no clear Republican frontrunner—as a winner. A winner of Dancing With the Stars, sure, but redemption stories gotta start somewhere.

pc8vhrilrjuggcrcvcnl.jpg
 
CCS said:
It is too late Rubio. You are a joke. You have embarrassed yourself on the national stage, and you haven't got a hope of ever making nominee again. Go back to Florida, run for governor, do nothing of note, and then fuck off to somewhere where you can't do any more damage. Good riddance you useless, pathetic fuck.
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Whoa fuck you Florida don't want him

Send him to alaska
 
HylianTom said:
One big question I've had about Bernie-as-nominee: How nasty is he willing to get?

That Detroit tweet from his team was pretty damn nasty. As a Hillary guy, I didn't care for it. But conversely, it's nice to see that his team has the potential to play dirty. That's encouraging.
Click to expand...

The meme that Bernie is some innocent paladin of purity has always been really dumb. He's very leftist, yes, but he's a politician. He plays the same games they all do, and he always has. And that's fine! Ultimately you want someone who'll throw a dickpunch when the chips are down.

If anything, his insistence on no SuperPAC money is counterproductive, although it's clear it's a huge part of his message, so he has little choice but to follow through. I'd hope that if he did somehow get nominated, he'd either back off on that or everyone else in the left-o-sphere would go fuck you Bernie, we're going to help you with SuperPACs anyway. You don't refuse to pick up a gun on principle when someone is shooting at you.
 
Macho Madness said:
So Bernie ended up overperforming his delegate target in Michigan by 2. The problem is that on the same night, he underperformed his delegate target in Mississippi by 9. He's been doing that all over, making his small wins mean next to nothing.

Clinton underperformed in Michigan by 2, and overperformed in Mississippi by by 9. Keep things at least close going forward, there's no way Bernie catches up.
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If Bernie hadn't let Clinton run up delegates all across the South, risk-free, then he'd probably have a good chance at winning the nomination. Oh well.
 
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