"If your last name starts with Tru then you are not eligible to be the 2016 GOP nominee."
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
- Start date
- Status
"If your last name starts with Tru then you are not eligible to be the 2016 GOP nominee."
NihonTiger90
Member
Marco Trubio?
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
CNN polls for Ohio and Florida:
Ohio:
Trump: 41
Kasich: 35
Cruz: 15
Rubio: 7
Florida:
Trump: 40
Rubio: 24
Cruz: 19
Kasich 5
This is going to be close but it could be over in six days...
Scott Walker hit 0% in the polls after the second debate.
http://www.wkow.com/story/30072499/2015/09/20/walker-at-0-in-new-national-poll
Ohio:
Trump: 41
Kasich: 35
Cruz: 15
Rubio: 7
Florida:
Trump: 40
Rubio: 24
Cruz: 19
Kasich 5
This is going to be close but it could be over in six days...
Scott Walker hit 0% in the polls after the second debate.
http://www.wkow.com/story/30072499/2015/09/20/walker-at-0-in-new-national-poll
Macho Madness
Member
He dropped out after getting 0.5% in a national poll after the second debate. That's brutal.
Yeah. You are approaching death of the party status via internal civil war when a plurality if not majority of the base is disenfranchised by the "establishment" though.
Basileus777
Member
Yes. Early voting would cement a Trump victory.
benjipwns
Banned
This would require delegates pledged to Trump to vote to change the rules to thwart Trump.
One poll. And the only place to go was back up. Jim Gilmore proved that. I see Scott Walker as a Jim Gilmore type who is stronger the lower he gets. All the more power behind his burst upwards in the polls.
Well, Bernie put a bunch of money and effort into South Carolina without moving the needle much, so he probably calculated that it wasn't worth the effort.
I'm not sure it really changes the math for Bernie if all the Southern states look like South Carolina. He gets like four more delegates total.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
Lol, as a Bernie supporter that part is so true. I've wanted deblasio to eventually run for president since he first started gaining power in New York. Bernie has been one of my favorite senators since I discovered him in 2008, but he never struck me as a great presidential nominee (although contrary to popular opinion here, I don't think Hillary is either. Democrats really let their bench go to shit by ignoring state elections).
I never really expected him to win, let alone get this far, but my hope has always been that his campaign would pave the way for someone like DeBlasio to actually get the nomination in 8 years. I think he's been a success in that regard, especially considering his numbers with voters under 45.
I genuinely couldn't tell if this was supposed to be a sarcastic Hillary version of a crazed Bernie supporter or if you're serious, but if it's the latter you need to sort your fucking priorities. Especially with that bolded part. That kind of blind loyalty and devotion to a party is pretty goddamn creepy.
Lol, I forgot about JayDubya. Didn't he get banned in an abortion thread our something forever ago? I might have only been a lurker back then. Also yeah, Benji has definitely become one of my favorite posters in any political thread.
There's no reasonable rule set that would prevent a simple majority from winning the nomination.
At that point, the Republican party is toast. Trump runs third party and Hillary says the Republicans are corrupt and anti-democratic.
QuiteWhittle
Member
Here's CNN polls for the Dem side. Looks good for Clinton but after last night...
OH:
63% Clinton
33% Sanders
FL:
61% Clinton
34% Sanders
benjipwns
Banned
Just because delegates are pledged to Trump doesn't necessarily mean they support Trump. If they were to become unbound...
They could also copy the Democrats of 1832-1932 and require a 2/3rds majority.
CNN polls have always been bad for Clinton... I dunno. I believe those Florida numbers but I'll be sceptical of Ohio until it votes. She needs to pump more money in the Rust Belt now. And work to get out the vote in Cleveland and Columbus, because she needs to run up the margins there.
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/432528/donald-trump-michigan-win-shows-general-election-appeal
Is the National Review coming back around to Trump????
Is the National Review coming back around to Trump????
QuiteWhittle
Member
You could say something similar about Ted Cruz but...
SlimySnake
Flashless at the Golden Globes
Given how the 21 point advantage in Michigan for Hillary turned into a 3 point lead for Bernie, it's safe to say the polls actually look like this:
OH:
57% Sanders
43% Clinton
FL:
58% Sanders
42% Clinton
Idontknowwhattobelieveanymore
Macho Madness
Member
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
I can't believe Trump won a super racist state full of ex-union dudes. Really shows his general election appeal.
WSJ general election poll today:
Hillary: 51
Trump: 38
WSJ general election poll today:
Hillary: 51
Trump: 38
Macho Madness
Member
It is a super weak argument. Trump did well in Michigan, they'll say! That means he'll be competitive in the general election!
Both Sanders and Hillary each got more votes than Trump.
benjipwns
Banned
I already did this!
You can invest in my explanatory polling firm, and I'll let you have the unskewed polling firm.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Some polling of California on the Republican side (about Cruz vs. Trump) would be kind of nice... still a long way away, but important.
Basileus777
Member
Or even Missouri, an important race that's a week away that no one wants to poll.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
What do people here say is the most probable way for the Republican establishment to stop Trump? Have Rubio and/or Kasich drop out after they lose their home states to coalesce around Cruz? Tell Rubio and/or Kasich stay in after losing their home states to siphon off enough delegates to prevent Trump from getting enough to set up a contested convention? Is it already too late and they would have to change convention rules?
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-pre...z-would-fare-against-clinton-november-n534191
Kasich and Rubio still wouldn't get that many delegates if they stayed in and open up the possibilities of Trump winning WTA states like Arizona and Wisconsin.
Getting 100% behind Cruz and hoping that Cruz can make up for the historic beatdowns Trump will give him in Pennsylvania and New York by winning the West might be the best bet to stop Trump, but that involves Cruz winning the nomination.
Basileus777
Member
Rubio drops out and Cruz/Kasich attack Trump from both sides, with each taking enough WTA states to prevent Trump from getting a majority. They'd probably have to start with Cruz winning Missouri and Kasich winning Ohio.
GOP turning to Ted Cruz is like that scene in The Dark Knight with Alfred and Bruce discussing the Joker.
Bruce Wayne: Targeting me won't get their money back. I knew the mob wouldn't go down without a fight, but this is different. They crossed the line.
Alfred Pennyworth: You crossed the line first, sir. You squeezed them, you hammered them to the point of desperation. And in their desperation, they turned to a man they didn't fully understand.
Bruce Wayne: Criminals aren't complicated, Alfred. Just have to figure out what he's after.
Alfred Pennyworth: With respect Master Wayne, perhaps this is a man that *you* don't fully understand, either. A long time ago, I was in Burma. My friends and I were working for the local government. They were trying to buy the loyalty of tribal leaders by bribing them with precious stones. But their caravans were being raided in a forest north of Rangoon by a bandit. So, we went looking for the stones. But in six months, we never met anybody who traded with him. One day, I saw a child playing with a ruby the size of a tangerine. The bandit had been throwing them away.
Bruce Wayne: So why steal them?
Alfred Pennyworth: Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.
Bruce Wayne: Targeting me won't get their money back. I knew the mob wouldn't go down without a fight, but this is different. They crossed the line.
Alfred Pennyworth: You crossed the line first, sir. You squeezed them, you hammered them to the point of desperation. And in their desperation, they turned to a man they didn't fully understand.
Bruce Wayne: Criminals aren't complicated, Alfred. Just have to figure out what he's after.
Alfred Pennyworth: With respect Master Wayne, perhaps this is a man that *you* don't fully understand, either. A long time ago, I was in Burma. My friends and I were working for the local government. They were trying to buy the loyalty of tribal leaders by bribing them with precious stones. But their caravans were being raided in a forest north of Rangoon by a bandit. So, we went looking for the stones. But in six months, we never met anybody who traded with him. One day, I saw a child playing with a ruby the size of a tangerine. The bandit had been throwing them away.
Bruce Wayne: So why steal them?
Alfred Pennyworth: Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.
benjipwns
Banned
I wouldn't assume they don't prefer Trump to Cruz.
Trump is a well-known quantity. He's run in these faux-elite circles for decades. He's the muscle.
Rubio is the looks.
Kasich is the brains.
Cruz is the wild card.
Jeb! was the useless chick.
Hired killer?
I think that Rubio and Kasich should drop out BEFORE their states vote and endorse Cruz. That's the best odds of success.
But it has been the best odds of success for the last like three months and it hasn't mattered.
One of the important ongoing narratives here is the collapse of GOP establishment power. If the Republicans had managed to push out most of the establishment candidates earlier, choose one candidate, and focus all the attention and support on them, they probably could've beaten Trump by now.
But they've proven unable to choose one candidate -- hence why there were five, then four. There's no agreement on which guy offers an actual chance to win the general and keep the GOP together. Which itself is evidence that no guy is the right guy to keep the GOP together. Kasich, Rubio, and Cruz are all basically factional candidates just like Trump is. Trump just has, you know, a really big faction.
I think a lot of the establishment sees Trump becoming the face of the party as also being a death of the party style event though. People routinely compare that guy to Hitler. I don't think there's any way they could scrub that back out of their party. Can't put the genie back in the bottle, other metaphors. This is true whether he wins or loses in the General, imo. The damage is going to be lasting no matter what. Insane as it sounds, it might be in the establishment's best interest to sabotage themselves this General just to cut the rot out of their party while they still have some slim chance of salvaging themselves.
Basically, my diagnosis of the Republican party is
At least at the national level and I have no idea what happens downticket if things fall apart at higher levels. Does it just chain-reaction all the way down or do local people just really quickly whip the (R) off the end of their name and everything continues as before? I don't really know...interesting times we live in.
It's soooo damn weird seeing FreeRepublic treating Ted %?#~! Cruz as an "Establishment" candidate now. Never would I have ever guess this; six months ago, he was treated as a living saint there.
Here's the thread that has inspired my post; it's about an article from TheHill.com where Cruz says he's fine with there being a contested convention:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3407082/posts
(LOL at suggestion of a Romney/Cruz ticket)
Here's the thread that has inspired my post; it's about an article from TheHill.com where Cruz says he's fine with there being a contested convention:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3407082/posts
(LOL at suggestion of a Romney/Cruz ticket)
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
I should have prefaced with assuming the GOP would prefer Cruz to Trump. I know there are mixed signals to that, but Lindsey Graham saying people should rally around Cruz is a sign to me who they prefer.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
It really is interesting. After this cycle wiped out their bench, I don't know who makes a run in the next 4 years.
Yep. It's really crazy to see it happening live. The post-mortem in 2 years (removed from a lot of bias) will be interesting to read.
I think they need as many people in as possible. Kasich steals northern votes, Rubio pulls a Christie and suicide bombs Florida for as many as he can get, and Cruz to try to grab rural states. Trump will still dominate the East Coast (which might give him enough votes outright), but it's the RNC's best hope.
No matter what, they're screwed. So what's the game theory for the best strategy long-term? I'd argue they should fully support Trump. Open financing, endorsements, the works. Make it completely clear that you backed him, and then watch him burn. Then in the post-election speeches (after he's blown out), you can stand up there and put the Tea Party on blast. Point out that McCain and Romney did better (because they will), and really hammer in that the fringe base is just really out of touch.
Why care about pissing them off? In a 2 party system, the fringe has to just suck it up and pick the closest ideological party anyway, so don't worry about courting them. You end the obstruction in Congress, roll up your sleeves, get a few things done, and point at the previous Congress as being a shitshow. Make it loud and clear that the Tea Party stuff failed. Who cares how they feel, they're voting R every time anyway.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
If anything, the fact that the polls were already wrong once recently makes it less likely they'll be wrong again.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
ABC: Hillary up 50-41 over Trump in ABC poll, 67% of voters dislike Trump and 56% strongly dislike Trump. He's the most unpopular American politician in ABC's history of polling.
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/chal...avorability-attributes-poll/story?id=37500382
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/chal...avorability-attributes-poll/story?id=37500382
Mitch McConnell might want to rethink his position. Seriously.
I think a lot of the establishment sees Trump becoming the face of the party as also being a death of the party style event though. People routinely compare that guy to Hitler. I don't think there's any way they could scrub that back out of their party. Can't put the genie back in the bottle, other metaphors. This is true whether he wins or loses in the General, imo. The damage is going to be lasting no matter what. Insane as it sounds, it might be in the establishment's best interest to sabotage themselves this General just to cut the rot out of their party while they still have some slim chance of salvaging themselves.
Basically, my diagnosis of the Republican party is
At least at the national level and I have no idea what happens downticket if things fall apart at higher levels. Does it just chain-reaction all the way down or do local people just really quickly whip the (R) off the end of their name and everything continues as before? I don't really know...interesting times we live in.
Well the Republican establishment could test the limits of the authoritarian angle of Trump supporters.
They kill Trump at the convention, declare anyone but Cruz the nominee and their new frontman is a hardass like Trump but believes in everything the establishment does.
It's their only play at hemorrhaging the the damage.
I'm really impressed with the results in MI for Sanders. Now I'm wondering if the funding problems Clinton has will bear some fruit in 2 months. Like Jeb Bush the majority of Clinton's money is held in Superpacs. Unlike Jeb Bush her burn rate is much slower so Sanders ability to keep on getting more and more money directly doesn't have an immediate detriment to Clinton's poor ability to get money directly.
benjipwns
Banned
Republicans aren't like Democrats, they don't take top-down marching orders from the Party like all the Hillary supporters have.
They'll support a candidate for their principles and character no matter how much the Party demands otherwise.
Basileus777
Member
The gender gap in a GE would be amazing. Women hate Trump.
That could work. I guess the only question is: do they have someone who could convincingly play that role?
benjipwns
Banned
Nazgul_Hunter
Member
The more Trump looks to be the nominee, the closer Obama gets to nominate a SC justice IMO
AntraxSuicide
Banned
Right, and at the local level, that can cause hell. But nationally, I think those people will still vote R no matter what. They certainly won't vote for a Democrat, and their base is typically better educated on the process (read: they know 3rd party votes are pointless).
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked