Sony Will Be In For A Shock Next Gen

How will the ps6 do next gen?

  • Total voters
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Azelover said:
I love Playstation, and I've purchased every single one and I was never let down

That said there are three things coming up that will, to say the least, be a problem for Sony due to the way they approach new gens. First thing is the end of Moore's law, second is diminushing returns, and third there's inflation.

These three things will hit Sony very directly because of how they do New consoles. Simply beefing up the specs is not gonna do the trick anymore.

They have to come up with something that will bring value en mass.
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Not sure if you're going to like reading this, but everything you said is why there's going to be a PS5 or PS6 level handheld at or near launch. That's one of Sony's gamechangers to their next-gen console launch, compared to their previous.

They'll need to hit different types of gamers and being able to play your crossgen games that come out between 2027-2030 on the go will be very important. Especially with cloud saves and cloud gaming getting bigger.
 
Doesn't the PS6 have the potential to do really well? PS5 has been starved of big first party games because AAAAA games take a long time to develop. Maybe even a whole console generation. Then they're finally ready to release.. as cross gen titles. Or maybe even quietly moved to the next gen hardware. Who's to say that a ton of big games that were in concept stages didn't just get quietly moved to PS6? Ideas and goals that were simply too big for PS5. Me? Personally? I'd rather have an amazing PS6 launch game than a barely held together PS5 game.

Look at SoTC. Super late gen PS2 game. Is it impressive for the hardware? Yes. Is it a shame that such a big game with such grand design is crippled by the then-aged hardware? Also yes. SoTC could have been a landmark PS3 launch game if development had shifted that way towards the end. Was this a choice of sales? That's a tough one, right? By the end of it's life, the PS2 had nearly 150 million sales. But according to estimated numbers, SoTC only sold around 1.5 million copies by 2009. That's a ONE percent attach rate. Pretty bad.

But what if SoTC was one of the only launch games available for this brand new console, and showed off the huge power improvement versus the predecessor? Big open world, much higher frame rate, better textures, etc. On top of being a huge technical improvement, its now also one of the few available titles for this new system. I think a compelling launch title has a better chance at selling high numbers than a super late gen game when people are already starting to move on, if even by simple virtue of there being a lot less competition on the new system.

More topically, Donkey Kong Bananza is a good example. This game was originally designed for the switch 1. Then at some point they decided to push it as a next gen exclusive. Did they potentially miss out on millions of sales by walking away from a huge install base? Maybe. But now, DKB is one of the ONLY first party switch two games available. You know people are going to buy this new console. What the fuck are they going to play? DKB. Cuz there's nothing else.

To come full circle; I think PS6 actually has pretty good chances of success if a lot of the games that have been in the oven for the last 7 years or whatever finally do come out. PS6 could stand on the shoulders of giants and enter a golden age of great first party software that the teams at Sony have been developing for a long as time. That's not to even mention all of the other big studios making games that have yet been unannounced.

Is it a shame that PS5 got so few first party games or huge, major releases? Yeah. Until publishers and developers stop chasing ultra real huge budget games that take a ton of time to produce, I guess this will just be the norm. Maybe we'll enter a period of leap generations. Maybe that will kill consoles completely. People will eventually wise up and realize that their games are taking entire generations to develop and no one will end up buying on the "down" generation. Maybe this is the beginning of moving away from big budget consoles entirely. It's too early to say. I think PS6 will do fine though. PS7? I'm not sure about that one.
 
Topher said:
Nintendo is delivering a distinctively different gaming experience than that of PlayStation and Xbox.
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Okay? it's a unique experience that has no competition. Just like we're claiming the PS6 will be.


Topher said:
PlayStation is the obvious alternative to Xbox if Xbox were to shut down hardware. Just look at the games that sales on each platform. 90+ percent of PlayStation and Xbox best sellers are exactly the same. 90+ percent of Nintendo best sellers are Nintendo first party.
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Right, which are also almost the same games on Steam.

Sony's competition is any gaming device. Nintendo, PCs, gaming laptops and handheld PCs are all competition to Sony.

Just because Microsoft leaves the hardware market doesn't mean Sony can twirl their moustache and charge whatever they want. People will just reject it and go elsewhere.
 
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OP's point is totally correct. I've said the same thing myself.
As it is, the PS5 is running behind the PS4 with a widening gap despite an Xbox that is a solid 18-20 million units behind the One-One X.

Metnut said:
People need a platform to play AAA third party games and for many reasons the majority of folks prefer a console over a PC. The first party games are just a bonus.
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"Need" assumes too much. You're assuming that this generation hasn't been disappointing enough to disenchant core gamers in general.

Once the GTA6 comes and goes, it's really anyone's guess how much the next gen will interest people.

Tiago Rodrigues said:
If anything it sounds like they learned their lesson and most studios are working on single player games.
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It's not just about "working on SP games".

Are they pushing the technical boundaries? Is it a convincingly and obviously new game as opposed to a rehash? Do they create enthusiasm? Are the stories they tell mostly free of sociopolitical bullshit that misinforms the characters and plotting?

Each first party release thus far has failed on at least one of these fronts in a major way. Ghost of Yotei obviously hasn't flopped, but it's not inspired a mass wave of sales or a significant number of people to rush out and buy a PS5 either.
 
michael_pachter.png
 
Definitely a problem for Sony hence gaas is still a priority unless they plan to buy publishers.

Look at the top 20 list and most played; it's mainly going to be the same just with path tracing if available or just better Fidelity.

The other issue is if you're competition is using other stores to show benefits of price. Next gen expect 80 usd as standard unless stores start offering discounts aka epic vs valve vs publisher stores aka the pre cloud war before zero choices.

None of these will be issues for casuals but only enthusiasts aka ps6 pro audience. Same sales for this gen for Sony or slightly lower. Remember Sony is focused on mau, msft has double due to owning publishers so it is not about just selling ps6/portable/pro. It is about maximizing mau profit extraction while keeping these folks placated.
 
I think the next generation will still be very successful for Sony, but it will also slowly become clear that the younger generation is increasingly playing on smartphones, and consoles will experience a decline.
 
Blah blah blah.

PS5 games have been safe, no doubt, but it's not like Sony haven't made an attempt to bring evolution to the market. PSVR was a big swing and the market just wasn't interested.

Nintendo and Xbox continue to get a pass when it comes to stagnation. On hardware, there nothing special about the Switch 2 that couldn't have been done with Switch 1. Even the concept of a hybrid device had already been established with the PSP slim and even the WiiU. Xbox is the least innovative with their consoles.

On games, Nintendo and Xbox haven't done anything unique in decades. Applying a paint by number open world to your IP is probably the least innovative thing a developer could do, and yet Nintendo and Xbox fans slurped that shit up with Zelda, Mario Kart, and Halo like it was game changing.

The much bigger issue is the cost of production and the lack of industry growth. The industry needs to crash.
 
Sorry op but we can only base our predictions on leaks and guesses, what we need to at least attemt genuine prediction of how well sony does next gen are 3 things:
1) Specs of ps6
2) price of ps6
3) Amount and quality of launch and first year exclusives(dont need to be first party, but gotta be either fully exclusive or at least year of timed).

Without that crucial data we are basically aproaching michael pachter's professionalism and lvl of quality here, and im sure
 
IDKFA said:
Okay? So it's a unique experience that has no competition? Just like we're claiming the PS6 will be.
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Correct.

Right, which are also almost the same games on Steam.

Sony's competition is any gaming device. Nintendo, PCs, gaming laptops and handheld PCs are all competition to Sony.

Just because Microsoft leaves the hardware market doesn't mean Sony can twirl their moustache and charge whatever they want. People will just reject it and go elsewhere.
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I never said Sony can do whatever they want, now did I? There are always limits when it comes to devices that are purely for entertainment, but the lack of competition loosens those limitations greatly. If Sony doesn't have to worry about competeing with Xbox pricing then PS6 pricing will be higher. I think that is just common sense.

If Sony's competition is "any gaming device" then why does the gaming console even exist? Answers: Price. Form factor. Ease of use. These are attributes that Xbox and PlayStation have in common and separate them from "any gaming device". This is why those two are in direct competition.
 
fallingdove said:
Blah blah blah.

PS5 games have been safe, no doubt, but it's not like Sony haven't made an attempt to bring evolution to the market. PSVR was a big swing and the market just wasn't interested.

Nintendo and Xbox continue to get a pass when it comes to stagnation. On hardware, there nothing special about the Switch 2 that couldn't have been done with Switch 1. Even the concept of a hybrid device had already been established with the PSP slim and even the WiiU. Xbox is the least innovative with their consoles.

On games, Nintendo and Xbox haven't done anything unique in decades. Applying a paint by number open world to your IP is probably the least innovative thing a developer could do, and yet Nintendo and Xbox fans slurped that shit up with Zelda, Mario Kart, and Halo like it was game changing.

The much bigger issue is the cost of production and the lack of industry growth. The industry needs to crash.
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Disagree with everything but the last 2 sentences.
 
Literally at any point Sony can just release a Bloodborne remake or BB2, and they'll sell millions of consoles.

They are saving that fire alarm after intergalactic and marathon bomb.
 
mckmas8808 said:
And yet literally every one of those sequals scored very well with reviews and users. You're missing the Spiderman games too. And they've all sold very well two. The Horizon Forbidden West was the only one that we know of that sold less specifically because Sony was testing out putting their 1st party games on PS+ early and that failed! It killed sales fast. Without that hiccup, all the sequals have been successes.
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Knew I was missing one! Yes, add Spiderman to the list for sure.

I'm certainly not saying any of those games were commercial failures. They were resounding successes in fact. What I'm saying is that it doesn't seem to me that the anticipation for the next God of War, Spiderman, Horizon etc game is as high as it was for the most recent games in each of those franchises. I think sales tend to lag behind consumer opinion a bit, in that an established property can afford to falter at least once if not a couple times before it starts to really affect sales. Depending on the strength of the franchise of course.
 
Have to analyze why exactly the PS5 was a let down for so many people.

First party output seems to be the main issue. This was kneecapped after their live service gambit failed. They straight up lost a studio due to Concord, and while they didn't lose Bend or Bluepoint (thank god), the cancellation of those studios' live service games meant their output this gen amounted to a write-off. If Sony put all these studios back to work on the games people actually want, they could easily have something good cooked up for PS6.

Next is the issue of development times, which also affects third parties. They've been getting longer and longer every gen. It's not just a huge business expense, it's also bad for players. Nobody wants to wait 6/7 years for a game. Conceivably, a dev could release a game at the very end of the PS5 gen and then not have their next game ready until PS7 launch.

There's been a lot of moaning about the likes of Ghost of Yotei, but it's an example of Sony finally getting things under control. Sucker Punch made it in less time than Tsushima for a similar budget and it still looks pretty good to most people. Astro Bot took just 3 years to make and ended up winning GOTY. The writing is on the wall that the market doesn't actually need everything to be cutting edge - leave that to Rockstar to burn billions of dollars and over a decade chasing.

There were also real world events which factored into PS5's disappointment. We had a pandemic delaying games left, right and center. There's projects being worked on that even today are feeling the effects. You can't just delay a year and expect to ever make that time up. Then there was the semiconductor crisis which caused massive console shortages. This no doubt drove last minute decisions to port a lot of their PS5 releases to PS4.

That, plus a lot of games going to PC, is going to gimp the perceived value of the PlayStation 5. Yeah, it's nice to have games on PC as a sort of fuzzy "we are all gamers" Phil Spencer kumbaya moment, but it's also going to fuck the attractiveness of the brand. When people say "no games", they mean no exclusives games. Perhaps Sony need to get more protectionist with their releases if they want the console to actually be worth owning.
 
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IDKFA said:
...

Just because Microsoft leaves the hardware market doesn't mean Sony can twirl their moustache and charge whatever they want. People will just reject it and go elsewhere.
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I believe the PS3 was a real eye opener for Sony. Their fans, en masse, rejected the price which led to positive change for the rest of the generation. The idea that they'd repeat the same mistake is just fear mongering or done by people who don't know the history of PS.
 
Im gonna be honest. I'd say sony is perfectly fine rn. They're not the one cannibalizing their community with excessive price hikes or $80 games (yet)

This year feels like a fluke in terms of their release schedule, you can absolutely tell they were BANKING on gta6 to be their headliner this year.

The only real competition they have rn is nintendo and frankly Nintendo is once again just being…Nintendo, so sony is pretty much unopposed.
 
Topher said:
They really don't for the living room dedicated console segment, which is the space PlayStation and Xbox have been fighting over for many years.
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I suspect Nintendo won't leave it to them for long. Sony is already going on the offensive on the handheld and Nintendo will have to react.

I have been on the record about rejecting the idea that competition won't exist without Xbox. Competition will now actually be interesting again because Sony, Valve and Nintendo are all different companies offering vastly different things. None of them is trying to chase the other and just replicate their approach like Xbox did.

I think we might see timed exclusives making a comeback next gen.
 
Killer8 said:
Have to analyze why exactly the PS5 was a let down for so many people.

First party output seems to be the main issue. This was kneecapped after their live service gambit failed. They straight up lost a studio due to Concord, and while they didn't lose Bend or Bluepoint (thank god), the cancellation of those studios' live service games meant their output this gen amounted to a write-off. If Sony put all these studios back to work on the games people actually want, they could easily have something good cooked up for PS6.

Next is the issue of development times, which also affects third parties. They've been getting longer and longer every gen. It's not just a huge business expense, it's also bad for players. Nobody wants to wait 6/7 years for a game. Conceivably, a dev could release a game at the very end of the PS5 gen and then not have their next game ready until PS7 launch.

There's been a lot of moaning about the likes of Ghost of Yotei, but it's an example of Sony finally getting things under control. Sucker Punch made it in less time than Tsushima for a similar budget and it still looks pretty good to most people. Astro Bot took just 3 years to make and ended up winning GOTY. The writing is on the wall that the market doesn't actually need everything to be cutting edge - leave that to Rockstar to burn billions of dollars and over a decade chasing.

There were also real world events which factored into PS5's disappointment. We had a pandemic delaying games left, right and center. There's projects being worked on that even today are feeling the effects. You can't just delay a year and expect to ever make that time up. Then there was the semiconductor crisis which caused massive console shortages. This no doubt drove last minute decisions to port a lot of their PS5 releases to PS4.

That, plus a lot of games going to PC, is going to gimp the perceived value of the PlayStation 5. Yeah, it's nice to have games on PC as a sort of fuzzy "we are all gamers" Phil Spencer kumbaya moment, but it's also going to fuck the attractiveness of the brand. When people say "no games", they mean no exclusives games. Perhaps Sony need to get more protectionist with their releases if they want the console to actually be worth owning.
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The live service BS definitely hurt their output this gen, and it didn't help that multiple games just were downgrades from the PS4 originals. But they're not going to make the same mistake again. I fully expect Fairgame$ to get canceled and at that point the last mess to clean up is Bungie and they can wipe the slate clean when Marathon inevitably flops. I guess there might be one or two more games but the point is clear, they've spent years trying to clean this up and almost there.

I still don't know if we need to wait 5-7 years for a game just because that's how long it takes or because that is how long it took when game development effectively ceased for 2 years. I'm starting to think the latter and you should be able to make a Yotei-tier game in 3 years, 4 at most. They've also said things wrt to protecting the value of their platform but we will see how they decide to move with that going forward.
 
Astray said:
I suspect Nintendo won't leave it to them for long. Sony is already going on the offensive on the handheld and Nintendo will have to react.

I have been on the record about rejecting the idea that competition won't exist without Xbox. Competition will now actually be interesting again because Sony, Valve and Nintendo are all different companies offering vastly different things. None of them is trying to chase the other and just replicate their approach like Xbox did.

I think we might see timed exclusives making a comeback next gen.
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Handhelds are the most interesting segment in the industry these days for me. Very interested to see what that PlayStation handheld actually is.
 
Good question. I'm not a Sony guy, but the anecdotal thought from my friend who is believes that Sony's output will just get continually worse. His PS5 collects dust so he has no interest in the next one. He's been buying them since PS1
 
Depends what they're doing with exclusivity.

I haven't played on PS5 this whole year, last year I only played Astro, all because of the PC ports. Without changes I'll skip their next console.
 
imagine if we get Bloodborne Remake, TLOU3 and Physint during the launch year plus next gen versions of GTA VI and Intergalactic. PS6 would be outsold everywhere.
 
1) They got distracted chasing GaaS and lost several years here where they haven't had as many exclusives. It seems like they learned from those mistakes and are probably moving in the right direction again. We just haven't seen the fruits of that refocus because the games that will come from it won't be out for another couple of years. I expect another couple of years of weak first party support, then it should pick back up around the launch of the PS6.

2) PlayStation is about more than just a console at this point. It's a whole ecosystem, and it carries more weight than the generations of the past or a competitor like Xbox. The Switch & Switch 2 are in the same boat. People who bought into the PS4, and bought a PS5 probably aren't going to jump ship to another ecosystem at this point. If those people are going to keep playing games, they're likely to stick with PlayStation. I think they've got more "locked in" players now than they did during the PS2 generation, even if the PS5 hasn't sold as many units as the PS2 did in its day. So yeah, I expect the PS6 to do about as well as the PS4 and PS5 - probably around 120 million lifetime.
 
diffusionx said:
The live service BS definitely hurt their output this gen, and it didn't help that multiple games just were downgrades from the PS4 originals. But they're not going to make the same mistake again. I fully expect Fairgame$ to get canceled and at that point the last mess to clean up is Bungie and they can wipe the slate clean when Marathon inevitably flops. I guess there might be one or two more games but the point is clear, they've spent years trying to clean this up and almost there.
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Fairgame$ ought to be cancelled. They can't risk another Concord absolutely fucking the brand's credibility. To push ahead with that release would be a Titanic-sized sunk-cost fallacy.

I still don't know if we need to wait 5-7 years for a game just because that's how long it takes or because that is how long it took when game development effectively ceased for 2 years. I'm starting to think the latter and you should be able to make a Yotei-tier game in 3 years, 4 at most. They've also said things wrt to protecting the value of their platform but we will see how they decide to move with that going forward.
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Development times were getting long even before the pandemic. Horizon, Tsushima and The Last of Us 2 all took around 6 years. Uncharted 4 took about 5. We were reaching the limits of acceptable timescales even with PS4 level visuals.
 
Topher said:
Correct.
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Doesn't appear to be an issue with Nintendo, so why would it be with Sony?

Topher said:
There are always limits when it comes to devices that are purely for entertainment, but the lack of competition loosens those limitations greatly
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What has loosened Nintendo's limitations then?

Topher said:
If Sony doesn't have to worry about competeing with Xbox pricing then PS6 pricing will be higher. I think that is just common sense.
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Not at all. People will just refuse to pay for it if it costs too much. They tried that with the PS3. It backfired spectacularly.

Let's look at Nintendo as an example. You've agreed here that Nintendo off a unique experience without any competition. In which case, why isn't the Switch 2 $/£650? Because people wouldn't pay for it.

Topher said:
If Sony's competition is "any gaming device" then why does the gaming console even exist?
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Great question.

The console isn't just about profit from the box. Nowadays it's a gateway into Sony's ecosystem for:

PlayStation Plus (subscriptions)
Digital storefront (commissions)
Accessories and peripherals

But other gaming devices are still competition. Are you really suggesting a gaming PC or Nintendo isn't competition to Sony?
 
mckmas8808 said:
50% of GAF honestly has literally no clue why your post right here will be the game changer in a few years. Once pathtracing or at a minimum raytracing becomes the baseline for all lighting in games, EVERYTHING changes going forward.

Many don't see it yet. They can't even wrap their minds around it, but it's a very big deal! And add to that DLSS 4.0 level A.I. frame rendering (using transformer AI architecture), being the baseline in 2027/2028 with Pathtracing and nothing will be the same.
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I think most people get it, it's just hard to see a path to full time pathtracing when we see how abysmally it runs on current hardware. I'm hopeful that the new secret sauce is pretty saucy though.
 
Felessan said:
Do you have a link?
I only found Xbox FTC leak, it's about next xbox (not Sony) and it's from early 2022. Things happen to change.
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AI Overview

AMD's 2028 roadmap includes the launch of the AM6 socket for desktop CPUs, likely with a new Zen 7 architecture, and a potential next-generation console partnership with Sony, potentially for the PlayStation 6. The AM6 socket is expected to offer more pins for increased power and I/O bandwidth. While 2028 is a target for the desktop launch, the company is already developing Zen 6 for mobile and desktop in 2026-2027.
But I mean 2027 release surprised more or less everyone, so I don't understand why you even ask to a prove.
 
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It's clear to see the console market is shrinking, which is why Nintendo opted to invest in handhelds and Microsoft with their Windows PC platform. Sony has quite the challenge in the coming generation as they are reliant on the console market which grows more volatile by the year, and their games have a limited audience on PC. I can see the nextgen PlayStation taking portability in mind, with a focus on power efficiency.
 
Soodanim said:
Sony aren't in for a shock, consumers are when Sony don't have any competition to keep them in check
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PS1 had N64 which was not getting all the regular third party games like Switch isnt now but cool first party and Saturn was selling like xbox is now. Consumers were OK.
 
Topher said:
Handhelds are the most interesting segment in the industry these days for me. Very interested to see what that PlayStation handheld actually is.
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This next gen is probably the 1st one you can't really predict much about.

Like this one was super predictable in a lot of ways and I think that really bored people.
 
Sony is planning some special software for PS6 launch. I would not be surprised to see BB remake or BB2 at launch. I think MS' next hardware will have some users who come over to Playstation and I don't think they will go exclusively to Nintendo or PC and they will not disappear, so I think just by default it will sell loads unless they fuck it up somehow.
 
Three said:
PS1 had N64 which was not getting all the regular third party games like Switch isnt now but cool first party and Saturn was selling like xbox is now. Consumers were OK.
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Well when you put it like that I guess Sony are a benevolent pro consumer company that isn't known for getting arrogant off the back of success
 
If the trend continues like now we soon arrive at possible development durations of upwards of 8+ years like instead of a studio pumping out 2-3 games per generation we are spiraling toward 0.75 games per generation, madness, why should i buy a console that quite possibly would not even receive sequels of a game i like, like as an example if Guerilla would start right now with Horizon 3 we look at it coming out on a possible ps7 at the earliest.
 
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Kacho said:
Too many unknowns.

-What's the price of the PS6?

-What will make their handheld stand out?

-Will GAAS still be a major focus?

-Will first party be few and far between?

-Will first party be the same old shit?

If the PS6 is like the PS5 then it will be shit.
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Same strategy as now. Do not worry, they are learning from their mistakes.
 
Topher said:
They really don't for the living room dedicated console segment, which is the space PlayStation and Xbox have been fighting over for many years.
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If Xbox bows out, I'm not sure that Nintendo would necessarily stay with their current strategy. Not to say they would give up on a hybrid console, but there's also a possibility they could throw their hat back in the ring in terms of a more straightforward console (in addition to a handheld/hybrid option)- similar to the GameCube back in the day. After all, one less competitor would create a very favourable opportunity - especially considering how many dedicated fans Nintendo has.

As well, there's this idea that console players will turn to Sony as the one left standing in a hypothetical future without Xbox. But that's not necessarily correct. The Switch 2 doesn't get all the third-party games, but it does get a lot of them - and potentially way more if they and Sony are the only console platforms. People may choose them over Sony in that instance, especially if they also appreciate Nintendo's first-party games.
 
Sony has no real competition in the home console space. Despite what some would have you believe, most home console players have little desire to shift to PC as the experiences are still quite different. There is Nintendo, but the two consoles differ enough on their focus as well.

All Sony has to do is to deliver decent hardware at a good price, make sure they don't miss out on any GaaS games that people flock too (GTA, COD, Fortnite), and release two-three exclusives per year and they will do just fine.
 
Not being able to measure against Xbox will at a minimum draw more scrutiny. Instead of just being a little better than Xbox it's gonna be directly compared to all the new PC devices.
 
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