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Monitoring the situation in Iran

SA has no problem with siding with Israel. They caught the rockets coming from Iran last year during the war. Also, SA was part of the abraham accords.
Well to be fair the rockets were also dangerous for them. Make no mistake, the arabs do not want Iran to truly fall as it gives too much unpredictability. Having a predictable "bad guy" is better than an unpredictable result.

What if post collapse some shia nationalism will rise within Gulf Monarchies? Plus the oil price - SA did contact Trump regrading venezuelan oil.

Add to that the fact that SA finished off the UAE ledt yemeni government. Something is going on.
 
I thought it was Russia and "The Jews"

Focus Up Billy Gardell GIF by CBS
 


Trump: "They [Iran] said people were shooting at them with guns and they were shooting back and you know, it's one of those things- but they told me that there'll be no executions and so I hope that's true."

Reporter: "Does this mean military action is now off the table against Iran?"

Trump: "We're going to watch and see what the process is but we were given a very good statement by people that are aware of what's going on."


I hope this clip is just talking points for the press and not representative of anything that will happen (or won't).

If he doesn't take decisive action, then we'll be right back here in a few months, years or decades.

Several thousands of people have been killed and the Iranian government's forces have barely lost a few hundred. It's not remotely comparable.
 
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I hope this clip is just talking points for the press and not representative of anything that will happen (or won't).

If he doesn't take decisive action, then we'll be right back here in a few months, years or decades.

Several thousands of people have been killed and the Iranian government's forces have barely lost a few hundred. It's not remotely comparable.
It's definitely talking points for the media. Military personnel and assets are being moved out of Al Udeid. You don't move assets like that unless you're planning to take real action. I have a hard time believing the Iranian regime can offer anything meaningful to halt military action from Israel or the US. The delaying of the execution is essentially a hostage situation, but the geopolitical significance of the fall of Iran's existing regime is too small to ignore. They've pissed off all their neighbors, doesn't matter if it's Azerbaijan, Jordan, or Turkey. Everyone's sick of Iran's proxy war bullshit. China holds to non-interventionism and will offer no direct support, and Russia can't do anything due to the war in Ukraine. Iran is isolated.

It genuinely saddens me to know that they're going to execute Erfan Soltani, but his fate is sealed. Even if we don't attack, the regime will undoubtedly keep him locked up and will likely execute him later.
 
TACO at it again. Cant attack without SA approval so makes up some bullshit excuse.
This is even retarded coming from a Keyboard warrior. You have to make no decisions on lives and you get to sit there and talk about a government who is actually doing something for people?

Like I've stated prior I did not vote in the last few elections, because morally I want politicians that act in certain manners. I stay away from politics besides economics that have gravity on my children's future.

But, this is pathetically embarrassing. You going to go to Iran? You've been and helped Ukrainians? Ever stopped the killing of innocents? Gave people a chance for hope? Ever worked in diplomacy? Worked in embassies on duty?

No, you just sit there and stroke that keyboard away. While there are at least people out there trying to help those around the world in some manner. What did the last admins do? Placate terrorism, fund them to kill innocent civilians, while you sit silent.

How about we stop the politics and we watch and spread what is happening with Iran and hope their people pull through.
 
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I hope the people of Iran don't get hung out to dry. I feel if there's no assistance and they get quashed by the regime it would foster a lot of resentment after the statements that support was coming.
 
Be me. Know there is an internet blackout in Iran. About to ask, "..Is ThErE a LiVe StReAm Of IrAn"?

👈 Retard



Well, now the clock really is ticking. When the Honest Abe arrives in the Gulf is when we'll know time's up for the Ayatollah


In case anyone isn't aware, that's more concentrated firepower in a handful of ships than many militaries have in total. It also says nothing about any submarines that are almost certainly in the area.

 
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This is even retarded coming from a Keyboard warrior. You have to make no decisions on lives and you get to sit there and talk about a government who is actually doing something for people?

Like I've stated prior I did not vote in the last few elections, because morally I want politicians that act in certain manners. I stay away from politics besides economics that have gravity on my children's future.

But, this is pathetically embarrassing. You going to go to Iran? You've been and helped Ukrainians? Ever stopped the killing of innocents? Gave people a chance for hope? Ever worked in diplomacy? Worked in embassies on duty?

I think this response is the embarrassing one.

This does have bearings on our future..potentially huge ones. And the guys making these decisions are people that should not be in a potion to do so, by all accounts.

Its understandable, if not reasonable to be wary and untrustworthy of what they feed us via the media. I don't think I need to list reasons why.
 


———
President Donald J. Trump has told his national security team that he would want any U.S. military action in Iran to deliver a "swift and decisive blow" to the regime and not spark a sustained war that dragged on for weeks or months, according to a U.S. official who spoke to NBC News.

"If he does something, he wants it to be definitive," one of the people familiar with the discussions said, however so far, Trump's advisers have not been able to guarantee to him that the regime would quickly collapse after a strike and there is concern that the U.S. may not have all the assets in the region it would need to guard against what administration officials expect would be an extremely aggressive response from Iran.
———
 
So, Trum said:"go, go, help is on the way'. People went for their deaths and now is: "fuck you, sorry, there's nothing we can do".
Nice...
I don't think you prepare something so fast. It takes time to bring forces to where they need to be, to think of exit strategies, etc. It's not as if it's a press of a button.

I and seems like the world assume and hope he will do something.
 
So, Trum said:"go, go, help is on the way'. People went for their deaths and now is: "fuck you, sorry, there's nothing we can do".
Nice...
People had no choice really - in protests like this people die. You either win or you lose. IRGC has nothing to lose at this point. If they lose, they lose all their power.

Essentially we need to wait and see. Iran is just too complicated.
 
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They have kind of backed themselves into a corner, claiming to bomb everyone in the middle east if they are attacked. Appeasing dictators doesn't have the best track record.
 
No idea if this tweet is factual or not, but interesting nevertheless.

 
No idea if this tweet is factual or not, but interesting nevertheless.


Would certainly explain why the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group suddenly left the Pacific and is now moving to the Gulf

The decision was we needed more forces before we could ensure an immediate victory

Also gives the Ayatollah another 7 days to get on a plane to fly to Moscow never to return which would end this crisis without any American intervention
 
I've said it before the States doesn't take on Green Peace without a carrier group backing them up. Now something is happening.

Iran will be on constant alarm and will be worn out by the time the Abraham Lincoln group arrives.
 
I've been on board those carriers steaming towards a fight. Intimidating as fuck looking out at all the destroyers surrounding it, basically more power than most countries have with just a dozen ships.

And the crews just act like it's another day at that ranch. Lol
 
I've said it before the States doesn't take on Green Peace without a carrier group backing them up. Now something is happening.

Iran will be on constant alarm and will be worn out by the time the Abraham Lincoln group arrives.
Maybe, but I also think they will try to strike a deal with them where ayatollah will be out of power one way or another. The main thing is that it is a truly endgame now as Qatar and Saudi Arabia are both involved.

Fundamentally with the banks collapsing and Bessent saying they are tracking the money flows, it is pretty clear that the regime folks are royally screwed now.

I've been on board those carriers steaming towards a fight. Intimidating as fuck looking out at all the destroyers surrounding it, basically more power than most countries have with just a dozen ships.

And the crews just act like it's another day at that ranch. Lol
I hope USA will develop more weaponry or more advanced something, because while air carriers are strong - it takes too much time to deploy them and also they are extremely visible and expensive.
 
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This may change in the coming days....if I were Iranian, I wouldn't feel so happy right now. If you promise that "help is on the way" but don't show up, then that's essentially going to be written on people's tombstones.

Talk of Saudi Arabia and others getting involved looks more likely to muddle things rather than to resolve anything.

"Grave blowbacks to the region" could have been used to stop the June attack too, so that argument seems sketchy at best. If you follow that line of thought all the way, then the ultimate outcome is going to be delays and eventually...inaction.

Again, this may or may not change in the next several days or weeks.

Seems like a good assessment because a government in turmoil like Iran right now will probably act in the most extreme ways.


Depending on your point of view, they are already acting in "extreme ways". Just not towards them in particular.
 
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Depending on your point of view, they are already acting in "extreme ways". Just not towards them in particular.

Well you want to contain the extremism as much as possible. But it is hard. Who know what a bunch of extremist trying to maintain power will do to preserve it. I hope for a free Iran, a return to the ideas of the values of free and fair elections, religious freedom, and de-funding terrorism. It would be grace for the people of Iran to breath free of the oppression.
 

As I stated earlier, 100% it was Saudi and Qatar.

Depending on your point of view, they are already acting in "extreme ways". Just not towards them in particular.
Extreme within vs extreme outside. Iran might have decided that "we have nothing to lose, let's all go to hell together" and just go on rampage in the region. I still think that Trump will strike, but SA, Qatar and Oman will have to offer something and I would not be surprised that ayatollah is cooked in any case - just the monarchies will give IRGC and co. a way out. As it is pretty clear that neither Turkey, nor Russia, nor China are offering Iran anything.

This may change in the coming days....if I were Iranian, I wouldn't feel so happy right now. If you promise that "help is on the way" but don't show up, then that's essentially going to be written on people's tombstones.
I mean, considering that what SA, Qatar and Oman are doing, do you really think Iran will continue behave the same as before. Bombing everything is not the only option there.

I hope for a free Iran, a return to the ideas of the values of free and fair elections, religious freedom, and de-funding terrorism
Democracy eh? Even if ayatollah falls, it won't be a democracy. Elites will want to maintain the power + all those regional terrorist groups.
 
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Waiting for the CSG to arrive in the region will give tactical flexibility.

I believe the USAF doesn't operate anything like the Growlers. Plus a bunch of vertical launchers, more fighters and handful of Aegis platforms to intercept any Iranian response ain't that bad either

 
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