PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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AlteredBeast said:
I am not talking about how you or I perceive Romney. I am not sure why this isn't being understood.

I am talking about how the public sees both instances. Romney came off more courteous because he wasn't grinning to himself, shaking his head, laughing and so on while Obama talked. He didn't interrupt Obama when he talked. His demeanor was courteous. Demeanor. Appearance.

Am I being understood now?
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Just two points I want to make. One, the current debate is more fresh in your memory right now, and you might be miss remembering how Romney acted in the first one. He constantly interrupted the President and the moderator to get his word in and be the last word. What would be an accurate assessment would be to go watch the first debate and count how many times Romney interrupted his opponent. Then watch the vice presidential debate again and count how many times Biden interrupted. That is the only accurate way to settle the argument. Your reaction right now is from more of your short term memory than long term. Also, there might be a more memorable moment during this debate were Biden interrupted, and that rubbed you the wrong way. That would be a bias in your assessment.

Two, Biden comes from an era of politics, pre 1980s, where politicians acted differently. They were more verbose and in your face. Ryan is from the modern era and knows more about optics than Biden.
 
quadriplegicjon said:
Of course not, it would only move it if the media in unison declared Biden the overwhelming winner, in an amazingly perfect performance never seen before on the presidential stage!

I still think Romney's momentum was completely created by the media.
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To be fair, most people had him pegged as wooden, unable to adapt or pivot, etc. They also remember what Obama did to the GOP House re: Health Care Debate. They were not prepared for dynamic Romney lying convincingly throughout the debate and shabby, tired Obama snoozing between questions.

Romney looked a lot better than Obama in the debate and i think, in the quest to make this an actual race, the media knew they had something to run with and...they did.
 
thekad said:
Romney is a better debater than Obama. He'll probably "win" both debates. Maybe the foreign policy debate will be a draw since Romney is truly out of his element there, but he'll sell his bullshit more effectively than Ryan.
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So who is winning in November in your view and by how many EVs?
 
thekad said:
Romney is a better debater than Obama. He'll probably "win" both debates. Maybe the foreign policy debate will be a draw since Romney is truly out of his element there, but he'll sell his bullshit more effectively than Ryan.
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Nobody thought this was possible a week ago
 
AlteredBeast said:
To be fair, most people had him pegged as wooden, unable to adapt or pivot, etc. They also remember what Obama did to the GOP House re: Health Care Debate. They were not prepared for dynamic Romney lying convincingly throughout the debate and shabby, tired Obama snoozing between questions.

Romney looked a lot better than Obama in the debate and i think, in the quest to make this an actual race, the media knew they had something to run with and...they did.
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I agree, but re-watching the debate, the 'level of thrashing' was way overblown, and the media did a pisspoor job of dissecting what was actually said and what lies were spewed from Romney. Romney would have definitely had a bounce from the debate, but the media definitely made sure it was a big one.
 
Black Mamba said:
If Obama has a moment like this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ta_SFvgbrlY

game over.
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Clinton actually argued against deficit fetishization? Who knew?

Anyway, I don't think we can expect this out of Obama. Clinton is simply on another level compared to everyone else. Too bad his rehtorical and political skills didn't necessarily translate into governing skills.

Also, Clinton really aged well. Losing weight helped him. He looked a little too doughboyish there.
 
my predictions, before the first debate were:

1. romney
2. ryan
3. obama
4. obama

the first because the economy, but i expected it to be closer and not a blowout. the second i changed my opinion after the first debate, that biden had a shot, and i think he did win the debate, but he may have put people off due to his personality.

the other two are more obama's game. if issues like women's health and immigration come up, i expect romney to lie, but i also think obama might call him out on that bullshit now. i definitely see a town hall style being more his thing.

foreign policy has examples of some recent fuckups, but they've been neutralized partially due to the fuckups of republicans and romney's running-mate. obama can always throw bin laden back in his face, too.

i don't expect romney to fall over and collapse, so the media will probably call the last two a tie as well. however, i think if anyone has a collapse in the next two debates, it won't be obama.
 
metalslimer said:
Maybe not in a debate, but Obama has done had many powerful (if not more powerful than that clip) moments on the stump
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With a teleprompter. I'm not denigrating that or claiming Obama isn't a good speech giver but there's a difference between that and being a natural, master communicator like Clinton, Reagan, JKF, etc. Obama struggles with streamlining his thoughts into the most effective language or arguments. That applies to his debate performances, interviews, and off-the-cuff speaking in general. I'm not saying he can't talk without a teleprompter, he proved he could at the Q&A session a couple years ago. But in general he is not a good natural communicator

For instance, here's an amazing video of JFK going off his written remarks to defend economic liberalism, Medicare, and Social Security
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ILqHSH4X_w

Very similar to a lot of the basic arguments Elizabeth Warren made a few days ago in her debate. Clinton and a few others could effortlessly and eloquently present their points without sounding like a talking point machine, or in Obama's case a professor discussing things abstractly
 
I wouldn't say Clinton did a good job in that video. He just gave the people looking for something to blame a scapegoat in Reagan economics. And Bush never really believed in it himself. He is the one that came up with the term "voodoo economics." He even raised taxes, and that was what really did him in. Not only did it piss off his base, but he kept them raised in a bad economy. Also, Clinton's argument right there did not have any lasting impact. In two years, the Democrats would lose the House. In 8 more, the public went with another Reagan tax cut presidential figure in Bush. In that youtube clip, Clinton is only giving people something to blame.
 
AlteredBeast said:
This is the American public we are talking about. Those lucky few of us on GAF are the most informed of the electorate. The internet itself is pretty liberal, but then you have the millions and millions of adults who vote who don't have time for, nor care to find out about the concrete plans of both candidates. They turned off the TV after the debate or watched their local news.

My proof is Romney's sustained bump. Had everyone run to find out all the bunk Romney was staying truly was bunk, his bump would have been very slight, non-existent or HIGHLY temporary.

Instead, the most trusted pollster and aggregate in the business, Nate Silver, says that Romney is back up to almost a 1 in 3 chance of winning the election without any other thing happening in the last week and a half.
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The problem with invoking the "public" as a generic mass in arguments is that they always turn out to be just enough of something to fulfill confirmation bias. In this case, the public is apparently invested enough to watch an entire 90 minute debate, to have actually planned to watch it in the first place, but not to have done absolutely any other followup in the wake of it. Makes one wonder how they knew there was a debate in the first place...

His post-debate bump still gives him a ~70% of losing and you view that as evidence that the public *overwhelmingly* doesn't care or pay attention to a candidate's honesty? How's that work?
 
I kinda wonder what percentage of the voting population realizes just how steep and narrow Romney's electoral path is. I'd imagine that not a very high percentage of them sit around playing with the interactive map every day..
 
AlteredBeast said:
Biden was kind of being a dick throughout the whole debate. I just don't see the bulk of Americans really enjoying that. I thought that Romney and Obama were mostly courteous, but Biden was being straight up disrespectful.

I am not saying Romney and Ryan's policies don't deserve that oftentimes, but being an attack dog is a fine line to walk in a debate. And Biden went from crazy joe to pit bull.
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I hear ya. But Romney "won" his debate by being a total lying dickbag. So Biden responded in kind. If lying is OK, then laughing should be fine as well.
 
If Biden's view is rejected, then so be it. The people will get what they deserve. He put up a good forceful case. Nitpicks likes security at some consulate are irrelevant. If the the people vote for vouchers, then they deserve what they get.
 
Listened to the debate earlier while working and thought Ryan came off pretty good, just audibly, but I laughed at much of what he said.

Watching the repeat now, so we'll see if that makes any difference, especially with Joe's performance. I know his mannerisms are a lot of what makes Joey B amazing.
 
Aaron Strife said:
I want to see more polling out of Colorado and Iowa myself.
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Last I checked, Iowa's looking quite solid, with especially impressive early voting numbers.
Given that Kerry States + Ohio + New Mexico + Iowa = 275EVs, we could still end-up having a relatively early night.

I predict that, should Obama end-up winning, we're going to see an unprecedented level of Republican attacks on early voting in the following years. It really seems to be hurting them in key states. They usually benefit by short-changing large population centers on the number of voting machines provided, resulting in super-long lines.. but early voting largely counteracts that advantage.
 
speculawyer said:
If Biden's view is rejected, then so be it. The people will get what they deserve. He put up a good forceful case. Nitpicks likes security at some consulate are irrelevant. If the the people vote for vouchers, then they deserve what they get.
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Pretty much I guess. Still sucks though.
 
"We want to prevent war!"

Just watching the debate now. Ryan comes across as a high school debate student pretending at authority. Biden, meanwhile, seems like he's just having a good time.

And man this moderator is so much better.
 
HylianTom said:
Last I checked, Iowa's looking quite solid, with especially impressive early voting numbers.
Given that Kerry States + Ohio + New Mexico + Iowa = 275EVs, we could still end-up having a relatively early night.

I predict that, should Obama end-up winning, we're going to see an unprecedented level of Republican attacks on early voting in the following years. It really seems to be hurting them in key states. They usually benefit by short-changing large population centers on the number of voting machines provided, resulting in super-long lines.. but early voting largely counteracts that advantage.
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Nevada too. 281 is the baseline I'd project for Obama.

Not that I lack confidence in my earlier prediction.
 
Aaron Strife said:
Nevada too. 281 is the baseline I'd project for Obama.

Not that I lack confidence in my earlier prediction.
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Yup. Dat Harry Reid Turnout Machine.

I'm thinking 303EVs right about now, giving Romney the benefit of the doubt in Florida.

I hope that pollsters continue to update us on how the Ohio/Iowa/etc early voting figures are developing. Perhaps seeing that these states are going further and further out of reach will have a small demoralizing effect? :P
 
Aaron Strife said:
Nevada too. 281 is the baseline I'd project for Obama.

Not that I lack confidence in my earlier prediction.
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Yeah. I'd say that's about right...Obama should win WI, OH.

Whoever wins 2 of CO, WI, OH wins. Obama can substitute an OH loss with a win in Virginia. Romney on the other hand can't afford to lose Ohio if Nevada, Iowa, NH are going to Obama.

Messing around with the map it looks like 14 EVs have moved to solid red states or Florida. The map could be similar to 2000 with Nevada, Colorado turning blue and NH staying red. If NH sticks us with Romney and Bush...I'll be furious. Eh...looking at Nevada and Colorado have gained 2, 1 EVs since 2000. And Florida has gained 4. So the red states have gained 7 EVs since 2000.
 
Socreges said:
"We want to prevent war!"

Just watching the debate now. Ryan comes across as a high school debate student pretending at authority. Biden, meanwhile, seems like he's just having a good time.

And man this moderator is so much better.
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just wait until it gets going
 
laughing_joe_uni.jpg


go joe
 
Props to Martha Radditz for doing such a great job. She had a spine, asked questions, had superior control over the clock, wasn't afraid to end a topic. This is the way moderation should be in a debate at this level.

As I predicted, Biden put Ryan in his place like the smug little twit he is. This was quite nice after last week's disaster. Seriously, Biden is a pro debater. He says stupid things when he's on the stump. When he's engaged in a conversation? Forget it, you'll get eaten alive. Joe has decades of experience with this kind of thing. He'd make an amazing President, sadly he's a bit old now. He's kinda in the pockets of the RIAA/MPAA, and that pisses me off, but I'll save that for another discussion.

Hopefully this curb-stomping boosts Democratic morale and some swing voters were giving a damn. I don't care what the polls say, when you've got everyone from Laura Ingraham to Rove whining about it you know Biden won.

re: polling, I always figured FL and NC would fall into the abyss, but I'm not liking the firewall starting to weaken already. CO is a big part of that so if it's starting to fade, hopefully IA/NV/NM/OH stay afloat. New Hampshire is scaring me a bit. VA is also looking like a big question mark at the moment. Meh. A lot of this could have been avoided, or at least would have ended with far less bleeding.
 
It's wa-he-he-he-heyyy too premature to count out North Carolina or Florida.

Marist's Florida poll shows Obama up 1 - a tie, more or less. But a tie doesn't mean Romney state. Also Medicare is still a big issue there and Biden sorta pantsed Ryan on that tonight.

We still need a decent post-debate poll out of North Carolina as well. Rasmussen went in on the 9th and found Obama actually gained a point from their last poll. Hoping PPP drops by soon.

Obama doesn't need either state to win, especially North Carolina, so there's not much use talking about them. I don't think it'd be wise to concede either of them, though.

Ask and ye shall receive: PPP is doing polls in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, AND Ohio this week. They'll start conducting FL, OH, NC on Friday/Saturday so it'll be all post VP debate, Colorado will be a flash poll after the 2nd presidential debate, Iowa and New Hampshire will be conducted the two days after the debate. Fun times.

speculawyer said:
Swing for the fence, MN brother!
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PD's not reneging in the face of improbability, I won't either.
 
The big problem with Romney/Ryan is that they're saying "Obama's foreign policy is unraveling before our eyes!!!!11" yet when pressed on specifics they can't actually say what they would do differently going forward. It's why Ryan looked so lost on foreign policy at times and why Romney is going to struggle in the foreign policy debate with Obama. Romney can't really say anything more than Ryan did unless he starts flat out making stuff up (which is actually possible).
 
Surprisingly, Obama gained in the RAND poll today. (released 30 mins ago).

Technically, both went down, but Romney went down more. Obama moved from basically up 1.8 to up 2%.

Bit surprising because today's update took out Obama's last 50%+ poll (and a raise from the previous day) and drop by Romney. Took out a nearly pro 2 point swing for Obama out to put in yesterday's polling. To hold nearly steady means Obama polled yesterday at about the same as that day, so nearly 50% based on my guestimation of the data points. Couple more days like that will drive Obama's RAND numbers up back over 49% and Romney down to 45% nationally.

edit: Any state polls today?

edit: by today I mean 10/12 coming out
 
Aaron Strife said:
It's wa-he-he-he-heyyy too premature to count out North Carolina or Florida.

Marist's Florida poll shows Obama up 1 - a tie, more or less. But a tie doesn't mean Romney state. Also Medicare is still a big issue there and Biden sorta pantsed Ryan on that tonight.

We still need a decent post-debate poll out of North Carolina as well. Rasmussen went in on the 9th and found Obama actually gained a point from their last poll. Hoping PPP drops by soon.

Obama doesn't need either state to win, especially North Carolina, so there's not much use talking about them. I don't think it'd be wise to concede either of them, though.

Ask and ye shall receive: PPP is doing polls in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, AND Ohio this week. They'll start conducting FL, OH, NC on Friday/Saturday so it'll be all post VP debate, Colorado will be a flash poll after the 2nd presidential debate, Iowa and New Hampshire will be conducted the two days after the debate. Fun times.


PD's not reneging in the face of improbability, I won't either.
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Do we know how many people tuned in for the VP debate?

NC has kinda been neglected, yeah, probably because they see it as a lost cause for Dems.

What is all the recent polling is available for NH currently, btw
 
The Chosen One said:
The big problem with Romney/Ryan is that they're saying "Obama's foreign policy is unraveling before our eyes!!!!11" yet when pressed on specifics they can't actually say what they would do differently going forward. It's why Ryan looked so lost on foreign policy at times and why Romney is going to struggle in the foreign policy debate with Obama. Romney can't really say anything more than Ryan did unless he starts flat out making stuff up (which is actually possible).
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Romney will just criticize Obama's policy and say that he will do what's best for America like Ryan kept saying for his debate, without specifying what that means.
 
Diablos said:
Do we know how many people tuned in for the VP debate?

NC has kinda been neglected, yeah, probably because they see it as a lost cause for Dems.

What is all the recent polling is available for NH currently, btw
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Something came out recently with Obama up 6 there. It was post-debate.
 
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