metalslimer
Member
Maybe not in a debate, but Obama has done had many powerful (if not more powerful than that clip) moments on the stump
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
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Maybe not in a debate, but Obama has done had many powerful (if not more powerful than that clip) moments on the stump
Dr. Pangloss
Member
Just two points I want to make. One, the current debate is more fresh in your memory right now, and you might be miss remembering how Romney acted in the first one. He constantly interrupted the President and the moderator to get his word in and be the last word. What would be an accurate assessment would be to go watch the first debate and count how many times Romney interrupted his opponent. Then watch the vice presidential debate again and count how many times Biden interrupted. That is the only accurate way to settle the argument. Your reaction right now is from more of your short term memory than long term. Also, there might be a more memorable moment during this debate were Biden interrupted, and that rubbed you the wrong way. That would be a bias in your assessment.
Two, Biden comes from an era of politics, pre 1980s, where politicians acted differently. They were more verbose and in your face. Ryan is from the modern era and knows more about optics than Biden.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
To be fair, most people had him pegged as wooden, unable to adapt or pivot, etc. They also remember what Obama did to the GOP House re: Health Care Debate. They were not prepared for dynamic Romney lying convincingly throughout the debate and shabby, tired Obama snoozing between questions.
Romney looked a lot better than Obama in the debate and i think, in the quest to make this an actual race, the media knew they had something to run with and...they did.
BotoxAgent
Member
wow, Clinton is just in a completely different league
ryutaro's mama
Member
So who is winning in November in your view and by how many EVs?
Officerrob
Banned
Nobody thought this was possible a week ago
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
I agree, but re-watching the debate, the 'level of thrashing' was way overblown, and the media did a pisspoor job of dissecting what was actually said and what lies were spewed from Romney. Romney would have definitely had a bounce from the debate, but the media definitely made sure it was a big one.
Officerrob
Banned
I agree. Out of the four guys on the ticket, Biden is the only one capable of connecting like that
Clinton actually argued against deficit fetishization? Who knew?
Anyway, I don't think we can expect this out of Obama. Clinton is simply on another level compared to everyone else. Too bad his rehtorical and political skills didn't necessarily translate into governing skills.
Also, Clinton really aged well. Losing weight helped him. He looked a little too doughboyish there.
Hobbestetrician
Member
Can't see on iPad, what do you have score at?
my predictions, before the first debate were:
1. romney
2. ryan
3. obama
4. obama
the first because the economy, but i expected it to be closer and not a blowout. the second i changed my opinion after the first debate, that biden had a shot, and i think he did win the debate, but he may have put people off due to his personality.
the other two are more obama's game. if issues like women's health and immigration come up, i expect romney to lie, but i also think obama might call him out on that bullshit now. i definitely see a town hall style being more his thing.
foreign policy has examples of some recent fuckups, but they've been neutralized partially due to the fuckups of republicans and romney's running-mate. obama can always throw bin laden back in his face, too.
i don't expect romney to fall over and collapse, so the media will probably call the last two a tie as well. however, i think if anyone has a collapse in the next two debates, it won't be obama.
1. romney
2. ryan
3. obama
4. obama
the first because the economy, but i expected it to be closer and not a blowout. the second i changed my opinion after the first debate, that biden had a shot, and i think he did win the debate, but he may have put people off due to his personality.
the other two are more obama's game. if issues like women's health and immigration come up, i expect romney to lie, but i also think obama might call him out on that bullshit now. i definitely see a town hall style being more his thing.
foreign policy has examples of some recent fuckups, but they've been neutralized partially due to the fuckups of republicans and romney's running-mate. obama can always throw bin laden back in his face, too.
i don't expect romney to fall over and collapse, so the media will probably call the last two a tie as well. however, i think if anyone has a collapse in the next two debates, it won't be obama.
PhoenixDark
Banned
With a teleprompter. I'm not denigrating that or claiming Obama isn't a good speech giver but there's a difference between that and being a natural, master communicator like Clinton, Reagan, JKF, etc. Obama struggles with streamlining his thoughts into the most effective language or arguments. That applies to his debate performances, interviews, and off-the-cuff speaking in general. I'm not saying he can't talk without a teleprompter, he proved he could at the Q&A session a couple years ago. But in general he is not a good natural communicator
For instance, here's an amazing video of JFK going off his written remarks to defend economic liberalism, Medicare, and Social Security
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ILqHSH4X_w
Very similar to a lot of the basic arguments Elizabeth Warren made a few days ago in her debate. Clinton and a few others could effortlessly and eloquently present their points without sounding like a talking point machine, or in Obama's case a professor discussing things abstractly
303-235 Obama.
Dr. Pangloss
Member
I wouldn't say Clinton did a good job in that video. He just gave the people looking for something to blame a scapegoat in Reagan economics. And Bush never really believed in it himself. He is the one that came up with the term "voodoo economics." He even raised taxes, and that was what really did him in. Not only did it piss off his base, but he kept them raised in a bad economy. Also, Clinton's argument right there did not have any lasting impact. In two years, the Democrats would lose the House. In 8 more, the public went with another Reagan tax cut presidential figure in Bush. In that youtube clip, Clinton is only giving people something to blame.
The problem with invoking the "public" as a generic mass in arguments is that they always turn out to be just enough of something to fulfill confirmation bias. In this case, the public is apparently invested enough to watch an entire 90 minute debate, to have actually planned to watch it in the first place, but not to have done absolutely any other followup in the wake of it. Makes one wonder how they knew there was a debate in the first place...
His post-debate bump still gives him a ~70% of losing and you view that as evidence that the public *overwhelmingly* doesn't care or pay attention to a candidate's honesty? How's that work?
Hobbestetrician
Member
Those have been the numbers I am leaning towards too.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Too bad 70% of them will be in ther mom's basement all day on November 6th playing Halo 3.6
cartoon_soldier
Member
What's with the lack of ABC/WaPo polls this week?
speculawyer
Member
I hear ya. But Romney "won" his debate by being a total lying dickbag. So Biden responded in kind. If lying is OK, then laughing should be fine as well.
speculawyer
Member
Oooh yeah, you showed that xbox360 vote who's boss! Ooooh.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I want to see more polling out of Colorado and Iowa myself.
thezerofire
Banned
I think a couple people have said that if they're blaming Halo for not voting they wouldn't have voted anyway.
Got my absentee ballot so I don't have to choose
Dominican Power
Member
Did you forget what site you post on?
speculawyer
Member
If Biden's view is rejected, then so be it. The people will get what they deserve. He put up a good forceful case. Nitpicks likes security at some consulate are irrelevant. If the the people vote for vouchers, then they deserve what they get.
Listened to the debate earlier while working and thought Ryan came off pretty good, just audibly, but I laughed at much of what he said.
Watching the repeat now, so we'll see if that makes any difference, especially with Joe's performance. I know his mannerisms are a lot of what makes Joey B amazing.
Watching the repeat now, so we'll see if that makes any difference, especially with Joe's performance. I know his mannerisms are a lot of what makes Joey B amazing.
Last I checked, Iowa's looking quite solid, with especially impressive early voting numbers.
Given that Kerry States + Ohio + New Mexico + Iowa = 275EVs, we could still end-up having a relatively early night.
I predict that, should Obama end-up winning, we're going to see an unprecedented level of Republican attacks on early voting in the following years. It really seems to be hurting them in key states. They usually benefit by short-changing large population centers on the number of voting machines provided, resulting in super-long lines.. but early voting largely counteracts that advantage.
Pretty much I guess. Still sucks though.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Nevada too. 281 is the baseline I'd project for Obama.
Not that I lack confidence in my earlier prediction.
eBay Huckster
Member
Man, sticking with 347 is looking hella bold now.
speculawyer
Member
Swing for the fence, MN brother!
Yup. Dat Harry Reid Turnout Machine.
I'm thinking 303EVs right about now, giving Romney the benefit of the doubt in Florida.
I hope that pollsters continue to update us on how the Ohio/Iowa/etc early voting figures are developing. Perhaps seeing that these states are going further and further out of reach will have a small demoralizing effect?
speculawyer
Member
Florida governor gives phone sex number for meningitis hotline
http://news.yahoo.com/whoops-florida-governor-gives-phone-sex-number-meningitis-003025979.html
Normally I'd assume this is just an embarrassing mistake. But with Rick Scott . . . I can't help but wonder if his friend owned the hotline.
http://news.yahoo.com/whoops-florida-governor-gives-phone-sex-number-meningitis-003025979.html
Normally I'd assume this is just an embarrassing mistake. But with Rick Scott . . . I can't help but wonder if his friend owned the hotline.
ErasureAcer
Banned
Yeah. I'd say that's about right...Obama should win WI, OH.
Whoever wins 2 of CO, WI, OH wins. Obama can substitute an OH loss with a win in Virginia. Romney on the other hand can't afford to lose Ohio if Nevada, Iowa, NH are going to Obama.
Messing around with the map it looks like 14 EVs have moved to solid red states or Florida. The map could be similar to 2000 with Nevada, Colorado turning blue and NH staying red. If NH sticks us with Romney and Bush...I'll be furious. Eh...looking at Nevada and Colorado have gained 2, 1 EVs since 2000. And Florida has gained 4. So the red states have gained 7 EVs since 2000.
just wait until it gets going
speculawyer
Member
go joe
Props to Martha Radditz for doing such a great job. She had a spine, asked questions, had superior control over the clock, wasn't afraid to end a topic. This is the way moderation should be in a debate at this level.
As I predicted, Biden put Ryan in his place like the smug little twit he is. This was quite nice after last week's disaster. Seriously, Biden is a pro debater. He says stupid things when he's on the stump. When he's engaged in a conversation? Forget it, you'll get eaten alive. Joe has decades of experience with this kind of thing. He'd make an amazing President, sadly he's a bit old now. He's kinda in the pockets of the RIAA/MPAA, and that pisses me off, but I'll save that for another discussion.
Hopefully this curb-stomping boosts Democratic morale and some swing voters were giving a damn. I don't care what the polls say, when you've got everyone from Laura Ingraham to Rove whining about it you know Biden won.
re: polling, I always figured FL and NC would fall into the abyss, but I'm not liking the firewall starting to weaken already. CO is a big part of that so if it's starting to fade, hopefully IA/NV/NM/OH stay afloat. New Hampshire is scaring me a bit. VA is also looking like a big question mark at the moment. Meh. A lot of this could have been avoided, or at least would have ended with far less bleeding.
As I predicted, Biden put Ryan in his place like the smug little twit he is. This was quite nice after last week's disaster. Seriously, Biden is a pro debater. He says stupid things when he's on the stump. When he's engaged in a conversation? Forget it, you'll get eaten alive. Joe has decades of experience with this kind of thing. He'd make an amazing President, sadly he's a bit old now. He's kinda in the pockets of the RIAA/MPAA, and that pisses me off, but I'll save that for another discussion.
Hopefully this curb-stomping boosts Democratic morale and some swing voters were giving a damn. I don't care what the polls say, when you've got everyone from Laura Ingraham to Rove whining about it you know Biden won.
re: polling, I always figured FL and NC would fall into the abyss, but I'm not liking the firewall starting to weaken already. CO is a big part of that so if it's starting to fade, hopefully IA/NV/NM/OH stay afloat. New Hampshire is scaring me a bit. VA is also looking like a big question mark at the moment. Meh. A lot of this could have been avoided, or at least would have ended with far less bleeding.
Aaron Strife
Banned
It's wa-he-he-he-heyyy too premature to count out North Carolina or Florida.
Marist's Florida poll shows Obama up 1 - a tie, more or less. But a tie doesn't mean Romney state. Also Medicare is still a big issue there and Biden sorta pantsed Ryan on that tonight.
We still need a decent post-debate poll out of North Carolina as well. Rasmussen went in on the 9th and found Obama actually gained a point from their last poll. Hoping PPP drops by soon.
Obama doesn't need either state to win, especially North Carolina, so there's not much use talking about them. I don't think it'd be wise to concede either of them, though.
Ask and ye shall receive: PPP is doing polls in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, AND Ohio this week. They'll start conducting FL, OH, NC on Friday/Saturday so it'll be all post VP debate, Colorado will be a flash poll after the 2nd presidential debate, Iowa and New Hampshire will be conducted the two days after the debate. Fun times.
Marist's Florida poll shows Obama up 1 - a tie, more or less. But a tie doesn't mean Romney state. Also Medicare is still a big issue there and Biden sorta pantsed Ryan on that tonight.
We still need a decent post-debate poll out of North Carolina as well. Rasmussen went in on the 9th and found Obama actually gained a point from their last poll. Hoping PPP drops by soon.
Obama doesn't need either state to win, especially North Carolina, so there's not much use talking about them. I don't think it'd be wise to concede either of them, though.
Ask and ye shall receive: PPP is doing polls in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, AND Ohio this week. They'll start conducting FL, OH, NC on Friday/Saturday so it'll be all post VP debate, Colorado will be a flash poll after the 2nd presidential debate, Iowa and New Hampshire will be conducted the two days after the debate. Fun times.
PD's not reneging in the face of improbability, I won't either.speculawyer said:
The Chosen One
Member
The big problem with Romney/Ryan is that they're saying "Obama's foreign policy is unraveling before our eyes!!!!11" yet when pressed on specifics they can't actually say what they would do differently going forward. It's why Ryan looked so lost on foreign policy at times and why Romney is going to struggle in the foreign policy debate with Obama. Romney can't really say anything more than Ryan did unless he starts flat out making stuff up (which is actually possible).
Black Mamba
Member
Surprisingly, Obama gained in the RAND poll today. (released 30 mins ago).
Technically, both went down, but Romney went down more. Obama moved from basically up 1.8 to up 2%.
Bit surprising because today's update took out Obama's last 50%+ poll (and a raise from the previous day) and drop by Romney. Took out a nearly pro 2 point swing for Obama out to put in yesterday's polling. To hold nearly steady means Obama polled yesterday at about the same as that day, so nearly 50% based on my guestimation of the data points. Couple more days like that will drive Obama's RAND numbers up back over 49% and Romney down to 45% nationally.
edit: Any state polls today?
edit: by today I mean 10/12 coming out
Technically, both went down, but Romney went down more. Obama moved from basically up 1.8 to up 2%.
Bit surprising because today's update took out Obama's last 50%+ poll (and a raise from the previous day) and drop by Romney. Took out a nearly pro 2 point swing for Obama out to put in yesterday's polling. To hold nearly steady means Obama polled yesterday at about the same as that day, so nearly 50% based on my guestimation of the data points. Couple more days like that will drive Obama's RAND numbers up back over 49% and Romney down to 45% nationally.
edit: Any state polls today?
edit: by today I mean 10/12 coming out
Do we know how many people tuned in for the VP debate?
NC has kinda been neglected, yeah, probably because they see it as a lost cause for Dems.
What is all the recent polling is available for NH currently, btw
Romney will just criticize Obama's policy and say that he will do what's best for America like Ryan kept saying for his debate, without specifying what that means.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Something came out recently with Obama up 6 there. It was post-debate.
Black Mamba
Member
http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2012_fall_presrace100912.pdf
?? lot of pre-debate in there too.
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