Support NeoGAF

[worldrunover]

As Nate Silver said, there are 4 out 5 doctors who say too much cholesterol is bad for your health. Gallup is the 5th doctor.

Is Gallup also the 5th dentist that doesn't recommend Crest? Because that guy may be on to something.

 

[Clevinger]

Cheebs, I'm still waiting for your astute analysis. What does the drastic change in approval actually mean, and when do you foresee we'll see the effects of it?

Where's Ja Cheebs so we can make sense of all this?

 

[Puddles]

Not gonna lie, I'm really considering cashing out my intrade account with a $100 gain. That plunge in approval rating coming one day after the Fox News Libya allegations doesn't seem like a coincidence.

 

[Angry Grimace]

Do you think that Gallup is concerned about what their model is showing given that its line with no one but Ras? Ras doesn't care obviously, but it seems like a huge gamble here - they're either going to be massively vindicated on election day or utterly discredited, which doesn't seem like a sound business strategy.

Cheebs, I'm still waiting for your astute analysis. What does the drastic change in approval actually mean, and when do you foresee we'll see the effects of it?

Where's Ja Cheebs so we can make sense of all this?

It's just random statistical noise without some event to precipitate a drop in approval; Cheebs and Diablos are just chickenlittling as usual. I mean, we didn't really discuss it, but the economic figures on Friday were largely positive.

 

[Brinbe]

Bams up to 76% in Ohio. =D

Why are you all worrying again?

 

[Gotchaye]

Not gonna lie, I'm really considering cashing out my intrade account with a $100 gain. That plunge in approval rating coming one day after the Fox News Libya allegations doesn't seem like a coincidence.

No. Maybe, maybe, you could argue that Silver's model is too optimistic. But Obama's still has much better than a 63% shot. I'm letting my $80 gains so far ride.

 

[The Librarian]

Not gonna lie, I'm really considering cashing out my intrade account with a $100 gain. That plunge in approval rating coming one day after the Fox News Libya allegations doesn't seem like a coincidence.

You're not serious.

 

[Aaron Strife]

All it takes is one Ohio surprise and Romney wins.

Your basis for believing Romney will win is predicated on a miracle.

As Nate said, the candidate who's leading Ohio at this stage typically wins it.

 

[HylianTom]

*cough*

http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx

Shocked, I am. Wow. Sooo surprised.

 

[ezekial45]

Bams up to 76% in Ohio. =D

Why are you all worrying again?

but....but...the Gallups!

 

[pigeon]

Not gonna lie, I'm really considering cashing out my intrade account with a $100 gain. That plunge in approval rating coming one day after the Fox News Libya allegations doesn't seem like a coincidence.

Explains why the huge approval rating drop was accompanied by a big loss in the horse race numbers as well.

 

[Gotchaye]

No. Maybe, maybe, you could argue that Silver's model is too optimistic. But Obama's still has much better than a 63% shot. I'm letting my $80 gains so far ride.

Ha, as I say this more than 2000 shares get sold off and the price falls to 6.25. Puddles is already dead.

 

[Link]

*cough*

http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx

Shocked, I am. Wow. Sooo surprised.

Closer than I'd think.

 

[Wilsongt]

*cough*

http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx

Shocked, I am. Wow. Sooo surprised.

One day... Maybe one day... the South will stop being so bass ackwards...

 

[TacticalFox88]

*cough*

http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx

Shocked, I am. Wow. Sooo surprised.

Those who are not sure I REALLY want to know the GENUINE reason. Because it still puzzles me how ANYONE could be conflicted over this election.

 

[eBay Huckster]

*cough*

http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx

Shocked, I am. Wow. Sooo surprised.

jesus christ, southern respondents are making up ~40% of this poll?

 

[Cheebo]

jesus christ, southern respondents are making up ~40% of this poll?

Southern states turnout is generally pretty huge. The religious bible belt types turn out to vote rain or shine. Young liberals and minorities take a lot of prodding to get to the polls sadly.

 

[speculawyer]

Those who are not sure I REALLY want to know the GENUINE reason. Because it still puzzles me how ANYONE could be conflicted over this election.

Well it is usually undecided/decline-to-state

 

[Brinbe]

So rich old Southern White guys overwhelmingly love Romney, big surprise.

 

[HylianTom]

jesus christ, southern respondents are making up ~40% of this poll?

Not too far off, actually. From what I remember when we last discussed this about Gallup, the South (depending on how one draws the regional boundaries) has about 37% of the country's population.

Another day goes by where the South is skewing national polling. Tick-tock.

don't most southern states have turnout 5-15% lower than the national average, though

That.. I don't know.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Not too far off, actually. The South (depending on how one draws the regional boundaries) has about 37% of the country's population.

don't most southern states have turnout 5-15% lower than the national average, though

 

[Mazre]

Just got back from early voting here in Florida (Obama++). In and out the door in < 30 minutes. Based on the supervisor of elections website looks like a good number of people are taking advantage of the early voting (at least initially). 6/8 sites have wait times of 1-3 hours since poll opened (fortunately the most convenient one for me had only 10 minute wait times.)

 

[Gotchaye]

don't most southern states have turnout 5-15% lower than the national average, though

They all look pretty close other than Hawaii and Minnesota: http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2008G.html

Though many southern states may be weird in the polls because they have very large low-turnout black/hispanic populations.

Edit: fixed link

 

[markatisu]

Southern states turnout is generally pretty huge. The religious bible belt types turn out to vote rain or shine. Young liberals and minorities take a lot of prodding to get to the polls sadly.

And yet outside of Florida a Southern state has not mattered in decades for the Presidency....but the South will rise again!

 

[ido]

Who the fuck, exactly, is "not sure" at this point.

I mean, what the fuck.

I'm listening to a radio interview with Silver and Wang about polls. Nothing I haven't already read, but still pretty cool.

http://www.sciencefriday.com/segment/10/19/2012/making-sense-of-presidential-polls.html

 

[eBay Huckster]

They all look pretty close other than Hawaii and Minnesota: http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2008G.htm

Though many southern states may be weird in the polls because they have very large low-turnout black/hispanic populations.

bah, that link doesn't even work

also i was referencing this post, though i should've used 10% as an upper bound instead of 15

 

[VanMardigan]

Who the fuck, exactly, is "not sure" at this point.

I mean, what the fuck.

Low information voters. And this late in the game, its REALLY low information voters who are undecided.

 

[vas_a_morir]

don't most southern states have turnout 5-15% lower than the national average, though

I'd like to know what states are considered part of each region in that data...

 

[reilo]

To be fair, "Not Sure" could also mean "Neither".

 

[cousins]

And yet outside of Florida a Southern state has not mattered in decades for the Presidency....but the South will rise again!

If they were ever up for grabs they'd matter. The only reason no one cares is because they're so solidly republican, trying to sway them is a lost cause and a waste of money.

 

[Tamanon]

To be fair, "Not Sure" could also mean "Neither".

Eh, that seems like it's covered by the other ~4% in the poll that's not stated. Your third-parties and neither.

 

[Angry Grimace]

Low information voters. And this late in the game, its REALLY low information voters who are undecided.

"Not sure" voters are people who don't vote at this stage.

 

[ido]

Low information voters. And this late in the game, its REALLY low information voters who are undecided.

From my bubble, the lower the information a person has, the more likely it is they know who they are voting for, so it's weird to me to see people genuinely undecided at this point.

And if "not sure" means neither, or a third party, that makes more sense to me.

 

[JCizzle]

I may have an odd set of affiliations, but at least they're high-turnout, Dem affiliations!

49ers, Sox, Celtics fan; and the Nats are a very distant second place due to being the local team where I live now.

 

[GameplayWhore]

To be fair, "Not Sure" could also mean "Neither".

Given that Obama + Romney + Not Sure doesn't add up to 100%, I would imagine that "Other" is excluded from the chart.

 

[Black Mamba]

Given the tenor of this thread currently I thought I'd note that if Obama's lead in Ohio is really 2 points we should probably expect to see Romney ahead in at least one poll before the election.

And without one we'd have to assume its three or more. And that makes sense. It is over two on RCP including a ras tie.

Ohio is looking More like 3-4 lately. Hopefully no one shows mitt up again.

 

[Y2Kev]

The next question after, "Are you undecided?" should be, "What is your IQ?"

How could you possibly be undecided? Attention whores.

 

[Amir0x]

i think the undecideds at this point are just waiting for one or the other candidate to unexpectedly die so they don't have to make a choice

it's the only conclusion

 

[ido]

Ohio is looking More like 3-4 lately. Hopefully no one shows mitt up again.

Please be right.

I am actually a bit curious as to where I should watch election coverage. I do not have any cable at my house, so are most of the major news stations going to offer free live streams of coverage? I am especially wanting to switch between something palatable and FOX news for the laughs.

 

[Owzers]

I am officially registered to vote in Virginia, the gottaregister thing went through. On the downside, I have heard troubling things about Obama regarding Libya on Fox news and am now unsure who i am voting for. Obama was whiny when saying he was sorry to a father about his sons death in Libya, and his hand shake was like a dead fish. Firm Handshaker 2012.

 

[Clevinger]

undecideds are planning on playing eeny meeny miny moe at the poll booth

 

[Angry Grimace]

The next question after, "Are you undecided?" should be, "What is your IQ?"

How could you possibly be undecided? Attention whores.

It's people who are dumb enough to respond to a survey without knowing anything about politics. In other words, people who just want to be included despite not being particularly likely voters.

 

[Mgoblue201]

I'd like to know what states are considered part of each region in that data...

The census defines the south as the traditional southeast, plus Texas and Oklahoma to the west, and Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware in the north. You can view the breakdown of the other regions in the map. I assume that's the same breakdown that most polls use, because I don't see how the south could affect the overall results as much without Texas and Virginia.

 

[Link]

The next question after, "Are you undecided?" should be, "What is your IQ?"

How could you possibly be undecided? Attention whores.

Im guessing most "undecideds" at this point just don't want to admit who they're voting for.

 

[Hobbestetrician]

I may have an odd set of affiliations, but at least they're high-turnout, Dem affiliations!

49ers, Sox, Celtics fan; and the Nats are a very distant second place due to being the local team where I live now.

Michigan State football fans better than U of M, Notre Dame, and Ohio State fans confirmed ( since we have no on-the-field accomplishments to brag about this season, and we are still on the wrong side of the vertical line. *green and white tears*).

 

[mckmas8808]

Not sure if you're joking or not, but 75% to win means Obama loses 1 out of 4 times. If Nate's 75% predictions were always right, that would cause him to lose credibility.

Except Nate's 75% doesn't actually work that way.

 

[ido]

Except Nate's 75% doesn't actually work that way.

Could you explain to me how it does work? I think I have an idea, but a good explanation would be helpful.

 

[markatisu]

If they were ever up for grabs they'd matter. The only reason no one cares is because they're so solidly republican, trying to sway them is a lost cause and a waste of money.

For now, give a few more cycles when states like South Carolina begin to flip due to the influx of Hispanics. They don't want to believe but they are blatantly ignoring the Census that is showing the same trends in the South that hit the Midwest 10 years ago.

The Southwest is already dealing with this, a few more cycles and we will see TX move as well

 

[Incognito]

so basically we're reduced to questioning the credibility of the most reputable polling organization the past 50 years in order to hold out hope for an obama victory? eggs..basket.. you know.

 

[Aaron Strife]

so basically we're reduced to questioning the credibility of the most reputable polling organization the past 50 years in order to hold out hope for an obama victory? eggs..basket.. you know.

Gallup 1948

"We're not going to poll the presidential election because it's clear Thomas Dewey will win it going away."

How reputable.