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[ridethepiggy]

It should also be clarified that the Dems are open to the tax delay and income verification if they get something in return for them, according to the article. So if the GOP refuses to budge on that, Dems should be able to say they couldn't get anything in return.

Yep. The GOP feels that they are GIVING the dems a gift to reopen the government and raise the debt ceiling. The fact is that both parties NEED for those two things to happen and therefore the GOP needs to give something in return. Will they? Lord knows.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

I am still waiting for the Democrats to pass a War Tax. Add that to the negotiation.

 

[empty vessel]

Some of you guys are confusing me for MMT. I post my opinions, which are influenced by post-Keynesian understandings of the monetary system and banking operations, but which are not MMT per se.

 

[tanooki141]

Reading this NYT Op-Ed piece: Republican Are Safe

And now that Speaker Boehner has made a reasonable offer to raise the debt ceiling in return for honest negotiations on entitlement reform and modest changes to Obamacare, Democrats will have a harder time placing blame for the impasse solely on Republican shoulders.

This is amazing that anyone would think this way.

Like its okay to hold the global economy hostage because its only a "reasonable offer" the Republicans are asking for.

How about not threaten it at all?

 

[thepotatoman]

It should also be clarified that the Dems are open to the tax delay and income verification if they get something in return for them, according to the article. So if the GOP refuses to budge on that, Dems should be able to say they couldn't get anything in return.

I wonder what that could be, given spending increases and revenue increases are very much off the table.

Small temporary military cuts maybe? Have they passed that SNAP extension yet?

 

[ridethepiggy]

Reading this NYT Op-Ed piece: Republican Are Safe



This is amazing that anyone would think this way.

Like its okay to hold the global economy hostage because its only a "reasonable offer" the Republicans are asking for.

How about not threaten it at all?

Linda Chavez was the director of public liaison in the Reagan White House and the G.O.P. Senate nominee from Maryland in 1986. She is the chairwoman of the Center for Equal Opportunity, a conservative research group focused on race and ethnicity.

lol.

 

[bonercop]

i, for one, will gladly put out there that i fully buy into MMT. i'm a true believer!!!!1

...I'm open to having my mind changed, of course. I simply haven't come across a strong critique of the idea that's forced me to reconsider its validity. If someone could point me towards a good article or book that lays out why they're not fully on board with the idea, I'll gladly dig into it.

 

[SpeedySwaf]

I wonder what that could be, given spending increases and revenue increases are very much off the table.

Small temporary military cuts maybe? Have they passed that SNAP extension yet?

That's the thing, it's possible the Dems don't have anything in mind to trade for them. They could make demands, sure, but if the GOP refuse, then the Dems can just shrug and say, "Oh well, let's just do it clean."

The idea seems to be to put at least some onus on the GOP. If they want those changes so bad, they have to offer a concession or two in return. If they can't, then tough luck.

 

[tanooki141]

lol.

Haha, ik ik.

But that is some serious delusion.

 

[Crisco]

That's the thing, it's possible the Dems don't have anything in mind to trade for them. They could make demands, sure, but if the GOP refuse, then the Dems can just shrug and say, "Oh well, let's just do it clean."

The idea seems to be to put at least some onus on the GOP. If they want those changes so bad, they have to offer a concession or two in return. If they can't, then tough luck.

Yeah, it's a pretty shrewd move by Reid, especially with most of America agreeing that re-opening the government and raising the DL is not a concession.

 

[theprodigy]

lol.

ah yes, conservatives are well known for wanting racial equality! :lol

 

[Riki]

Reading this NYT Op-Ed piece: Republican Are Safe



This is amazing that anyone would think this way.

Like its okay to hold the global economy hostage because its only a "reasonable offer" the Republicans are asking for.

How about not threaten it at all?

This is the media playing the "both sides are at fault" card.
And this is why so many people are unimformed voters.

 

[thepotatoman]

That's the thing, it's possible the Dems don't have anything in mind to trade for them. They could make demands, sure, but if the GOP refuse, then the Dems can just shrug and say, "Oh well, let's just do it clean."

The idea seems to be to put at least some onus on the GOP. If they want those changes so bad, they have to offer a concession or two in return. If they can't, then tough luck.

Well if I were a Republican facing either a clean cr/dl, or a tiny deal, I'd go with the deal if at all possible, only so the public wouldn't be even more pissed off at me for creating this entire shitty situation for absolutely no reason at all.

 

[theprodigy]

Well if I were a Republican facing either a clean cr/dl, or a tiny deal, I'd go with the deal if at all possible, only so the public wouldn't be even more pissed off at me for creating this entire shitty situation for absolutely no reason at all.

I don't think this is the thought process of actual Republicans at all

 

[thepotatoman]

I don't think this is the thought process of actual Republicans at all

So what are they thinking people will think if they pass a clean cr/dl?

 

[ido]

I like the idea of Reid offering to remove the death panels. While he's at it, he can remove the part that says Obama will personally implant a chip into every American.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

I don't think this is the thought process of actual Republicans at all

So what are they thinking people will think if they pass a clean cr/dl?

I stopped at "Republicans" and "thought process."

 

[Crisco]

I like the idea of Reid offering to remove the death panels. While he's at it, he can remove the part that says Obama will personally implant a chip into every American.

Now there's an idea! The GOP could even sell that to their base "Look, we got rid of the death panels and mandatory entry of all your personal medical information!".

 

[Diablos]

If the ACA already has income verification -- let 'em have it.

Don't give away the medical device tax just yet. Save that for December or later.

I fear that Reid will give away all his near-harmless "concessions" and then next time will be left with delaying the individual mandate.

 

[PhoenixDark]

If the ACA already has income verification -- let 'em have it.

Don't give away the medical device tax just yet. Save that for December or later.

I fear that Reid will give away all his near-harmless "concessions" and then next time will be left with delaying the individual mandate.

No. It's more likely that whatever income verification republicans come up with will be purposely meant to delay subsidies, thus rising prices on the exchange. I like Reid's strategy: if they want the medical device tax delay, they need to give a concession. No more of the Obama-esque "negotiating with yourself" strategy.

 

[j_k_redtail]

Here it is.



http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/government-shutdown-debt-ceiling-default-update-98260.html

This is the offer that will end the crisis.

You might notice it's also...Reid's clean CR, tied to Reid's clean debt ceiling increase, tied to going to conference, tied to an offer of a fig leaf, if McConnell can come up with one. In other words, the offer is "nothing, but you can lie about it." Which is exactly where we expected to end up.

We'll see whether McConnell offers the sequestration lift in exchange for the tax delay. Note that Obamacare ALREADY contains income verification, but it was delayed for practical reasons, so that's also an offer of nothing.

Some analysis:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...another-hostage-crisis-during-2014-elections/

[Democrats] would prefer that Republicans simply agree to extend the debt limit cleanly. But by pushing this so deep into the 2014 election season, they are giving themselves a kind of insurance policy that guarantees that if Republicans do stage another debt limit crisis, Republicans will pay a serious political price for it.

...

And so, Dems are hoping that Republican leaders will have even more of an incentive next time to squash any demands from the right for another default hostage crisis. In this scenario, Dems effective neutralize the debt limit over the long term, in exchange for accepting sequester level spending into December (only one month longer than under a “clean CR,” which Dems were already prepared to accept). If that worked, it wouldn’t be a bad outcome. Or, if the debt limit isn’t neutralized and Republicans do stage another hostage crisis, the GOP again would devolve into chaos, again underscoring the party’s addiction to destructive, intransigent, crisis-to-crisis governing with only months before Election Day 2014.

This might backfire disastrously, but hey....

 

[sc0la]

Republicans want pre-subsidy verification. It's just a tactic to make exchanges harder and more frustrating to use and make the cost of coverage under the ACA appear more expensive. It is a non starter IMO, post verification through tax returns is more than enough.

 

[ido]

Pretty sure AM talk radio is pushing for default, or at least pretending that it's no biggie. Huckabee is explaining how defaulting isn't that bad, and that we can still function just fine. Sources Moody's.

They really love playing that '06 clip of Obama on voting to not raise the debt ceiling, too.

Meanwhile, locals are blaming the EBT glitch that enabled people to gut the grocery stores on Obama.

 

[Diablos]

No. It's more likely that whatever income verification republicans come up with will be purposely meant to delay subsidies, thus rising prices on the exchange. I like Reid's strategy: if they want the medical device tax delay, they need to give a concession. No more of the Obama-esque "negotiating with yourself" strategy.

Do we know this? What if it just forces whatever is in the law to kick in now instead of next year?

 

[PhoenixDark]

I think the point of the "default isn't a big deal" movement on the far right is to convince the base that nothing bad will happen. So when the economy explodes, the next stage will obviously become "everything would have been fine if not for Obama." Cue impeachment.

The seeds of this were sown early, with the far right arguing Obama is somehow making the shutdown as painful as possible for people.

 

[ridethepiggy]

Republicans want pre-subsidy verification. It's just a tactic to make exchanges harder and more frustrating to use and make the cost of coverage under the ACA appear more expensive. It is a non starter IMO, post verification through tax returns is more than enough.

Exactly. I don't care if the verification was part of the ACA and it was only delayed. We shouldn't be adding yet ANOTHER hurdle that people have to face to sign up for the first year.

 

[Diablos]

Robert Costa ‏@robertcostaNRO 2m
More Senate GOP aide: WH meeting, talks still being finalized, "nothing solid for several hours, if then."

Robert Costa ‏@robertcostaNRO 2m
Senate GOP aide: "Full conf mtg later this afternoon to share all the details of what McConnell and Reid are discussing, nothing's firm."

Okay I'm thinking tomorrow evening this will end one way or another.

Spoiler

until the Tea Party caucus strikes again

 

[Riki]

I think the point of the "default isn't a big deal" movement on the far right is to convince the base that nothing bad will happen. So when the economy explodes, the next stage will obviously become "everything would have been fine if not for Obama." Cue impeachment.

The seeds of this were sown early, with the far right arguing Obama is somehow making the shutdown as painful as possible for people.

There was a time in this world where people that lied and were caught lying to an entire country or were trying to ruin a country like this were removed from power very violently.
These jackasses are pushing us to go Egypt on their ass.

 

[empty vessel]

I think the point of the "default isn't a big deal" movement on the far right is to convince the base that nothing bad will happen. So when the economy explodes, the next stage will obviously become "everything would have been fine if not for Obama." Cue impeachment.

The seeds of this were sown early, with the far right arguing Obama is somehow making the shutdown as painful as possible for people.

I have to say, I do think talk about the consequences of default are overblown, especially given the options that the US has available to it to deal with it. I would much prefer Democrats talking about those options than about how important it is to our economic well-being to pay rich people money.

 

[Invisible_Insane]

I think the point of the "default isn't a big deal" movement on the far right is to convince the base that nothing bad will happen. So when the economy explodes, the next stage will obviously become "everything would have been fine if not for Obama." Cue impeachment.

The seeds of this were sown early, with the far right arguing Obama is somehow making the shutdown as painful as possible for people.

I'm curious about what would be required to disrupt this cycle. What has to figuratively blow up in order to get these people back to within two standard deviations of reality?

I have to say, I do think talk about the consequences of default are overblown, especially given the options that the US has available to it to deal with it. I would much prefer Democrats talking about those options than about how important it is to our economic well-being to pay rich people money.

bad negotiating strategy aside, I think that's a pretty unreasonable characterization of who holds treasury bonds.

 

[ido]

I picture an algonquin round table of GOP members conjuring up this media-driven propaganda.

Basically every issue ends with, "Well, we will just blame this on Obama."

 

[Riki]

I'm curious about what would be required to disrupt this cycle. What has to figuratively blow up in order to get these people back to within two standard deviations of reality?

Get rid of Fox News and the Tea Party.

 

[Invisible_Insane]

Get rid of Fox News and the Tea Party.

OK, but like, feasible shit.

 

[PhoenixDark]

I'm curious about what would be required to disrupt this cycle. What has to figuratively blow up in order to get these people back to within two standard deviations of reality?
.

A 1964 type election. The far right has argued for 20 years that republicans only lose elections when a "true conservative" isn't the nominee. HW Bush raised taxes, Dole was pure establishment, McCain was next in line establishment, as was Romney; even W Bush gets shit on the far right, despite winning. The best way to end this cycle is thus for a Ted Cruz or Rand Paul to get the nomination. A true believer with an uncompromising vision of conservatism.

When that person loses, the obvious far right goalpost move will be to the "well the media didn't give him a fair shot" or "voter fraud." We're seeing this play out in the Virginia governor race and the NJ senate race. So the far right will have infinite excuses, but I think the establishment GOP would finally stop the party after a huge tea party presidential loss. Goldwater's ilk were marginalized after 1964 and Nixon arrived with an establishment campaign. At the time there were far right folks who believed he was a communist, like Ike.

(this isn't to say Nixon was sensible. But clearly he was more presentable and "normal" than an extremist like Goldwater at the time.)

 

[ivysaur12]

OK, but like, feasible shit.

Pushing the next fiscal fight close to midterms is a great start.

 

[KingGondo]

OK, but like, feasible shit.

The only plausible thing that can end this is devastating, decisive electoral defeat (see above post by PhoenixPause).

Even then, the reality distortion bubble is strong. Many right-wingers can't get over the narrative that the only reason Obama won is because he "gave gifts" to his base, and that Conservative Principles™ will still carry the day if they're expressed eloquently enough.

I really think they're fucked, at least on a presidential election scale. Sure, they'll hold onto power in state legislatures for another decade at least, but the GOP as we know it has reached its apex of power and is slowly but surely waning.

 

[ido]

Real talk, what would be the consequences of a default that lasted, say, a week? Other than panic.

 

[empty vessel]

bad negotiating strategy aside, I think that's a pretty unreasonable characterization of who holds treasury bonds.

First, I'm not a representative. It's not my job to negotiate. Second, how many people in the bottom half of income earners do you imagine own Treasury securities? And do you imagine their aggregate ownership of treasury securities is more or less than, say, the top 1% of income earners?

I think defaulting on bond payments is bad form. What I'm disappointed at is the pretense of importance to our economic well-being as though we were helpless in the face of Republican hooliganism. This only encourages deficit and debt hawks, to our collective detriment. Why aren't we talking about the economic catastrophe that will result from failure to make SNAP payments or the failure to make social security payments? These are far more important in the grand scheme of things than payments to bond holders.

 

[PhoenixDark]

@JohnJHarwood 36m

Dem aide: Prospective Reid-McConnell deal would re-open govt with CR to January, raise debt limit to February. No medical-device tax delay.

ho ho ho

Prediction: the House will pass their own ridiculous bill today, then Boehner will relent/pass the senate bill tomorrow or on Wed.

 

[Diablos]

ho ho ho

Prediction: the House will pass their own ridiculous bill today, then Boehner will relent/pass the senate bill tomorrow or on Wed.

Good to know.

But honestly I'd almost be willing to bet part of the reason the GOP "stands firm" or what have you is that we always see these mini-leaks of info long before we probably should. Nothing is private anymore. In highly sensitive discussions where both interested parties are fuming mad (and one side in particular being in all out sabotage mode) that isn't always a good thing and can unintentionally embolden your opponent to take an even harder line against you.

...not that I use that to excuse the GOP for being absolutely bonkers, but it probably does not always help.

 

[Black Mamba]

Rumblings that the Senate has a deal forming that Dems will win on, eh?

Also, new WaPo/NBC poll today shows Rs getting worse, lolz.

Conor Sen ‏@conorsen 1m
Congressional GOP approval among "somewhat conservative" since 9/29: From -21% to -36%. Among "very conservative": from -7% to -2%. Uptick

Barely one in five Americans (21 percent) approve of the way Republicans in Congress are handling negotiations over the budget, while nearly three quarters disapprove (74 percent). Disapproval is up from 63 percent since the start of the shutdown, after reaching 70 percent last week. Disapproval of congressional Democrats has also risen by a smaller amount — 56 to 61 percent — as the shutdown has continued, owing in large part to greater approval among fellow Democrats.

President Obama and Democrats fare better, but are both clearly negative. After a brief uptick last week, Obama’s ratings for handling budget negotiations are once again clearly negative, with 42 percent now approving and 53 percent disapproving. Obama now stands essentially where he did two weeks ago, when 41 percent approved and 50 percent disapproved of his handling of budget talks.

Republicans are suffering from a continued weakness among fellow partisans, with 49 percent of self-identified Republicans approving and 47 percent disapproving of the job their party’s members of Congress are doing. Democrats are far less mutinous. Over six in 10 Democrats approve of the job their members are doing, and over seven in 10 Democrats approve of Obama.

Greg Sargent ‏@ThePlumLineGS 3m
WaPo/ABC poll: Only 24% of seniors approve of GOP handling of budget; 73% disapprov

bwahahaha!

 

[Armoured Priest]

Good to know.

But honestly I'd almost be willing to bet part of the reason the GOP "stands firm" or what have you is that we always see these mini-leaks of info long before we probably should. Nothing is private anymore. In highly sensitive discussions where both interested parties are fuming mad (and one side in particular being in all out sabotage mode) that isn't always a good thing and can unintentionally embolden your opponent to take an even harder line against you.

...not that I use that to excuse the GOP for being absolutely bonkers, but it probably does not always help.

Maybe, but the in hardcore GOP echo-chamber, much of this is ignored or glossed over. At the end of the day, I don't care how they get where they need to go. If FOX News has to lie about this as well to make it look like a win, well, its not like they weren't already lying/misdirecting their viewership already.

 

[Crisco]

It's hilariously sad that a bill which funds the government at sequester levels for a few weeks and raises the debt ceiling for a few more is considered a "win" for Democrats. Baby steps I guess, at least they've finally drawn a line in the sand.

 

[RustyNails]

I think jan/feb deadline for cr and dl is calculated enough for boehner to pull them back a little, so his party can come out out of this fiasco not wearing pants on their heads. Its a life belt thrown to a drowning boehner.

 

[Black Mamba]

It's hilariously sad that a bill which funds the government at sequester levels for a few weeks and raises the debt ceiling for a few more is considered a "win" for Democrats. Baby steps I guess, at least they've finally drawn a line in the sand.

It's a "win" in this scenario for sure. And if it allows them to negotiate the sequestion over the next couple months without the debt ceiling in the way, that's what really matters.

 

[Fox318]

The rams won.

 

[Armoured Priest]

A little more hopeful, but its not a done deal till Obama's signature is on the bill.

 

[GhaleonEB]

It's a "win" in this scenario for sure. And if it allows them to negotiate the sequestion over the next couple months without the debt ceiling in the way, that's what really matters.

Yes. I think the most important "win" is setting the precedent that Dems will not completely buckle, regardless of the absurdity of GOP demands. Going over this cliff did not help the GOP win policy concessions, in fact it hurt them greatly. If that's the price for not doing it again, great.

(Though I think we do it again anyways.)

A little more hopeful, but its not a done deal till Obama's signature is on the bill.

It's telling that the markets opened today in the red and promptly reversed. Despite Obama saying there's a good chance of default, word is being put out that we won't.

 

[Dram]

So what politicians up for election next year will be hurt the most by the fallout from the shutdown?

 

[Black Mamba]

Robert Costa ‏@robertcostaNRO 7m
MT @J_Strong Growing sense of resignation among House Rs that whatever McConnell agrees to will be the deal. Doesn't mean it will be pretty

Poor House GOP


haha, some conservatives think the income verification thing would delay Obamacare. Yeah, like Dems are going to be fooled into that. These guys are so dumb.

Robert Costa ‏@robertcostaNRO 1m
RT @jbendery Top Sen aide confirms outlines of latest deal: Debt lim hike thru early Feb, govt funding thru early Jan, budget conf by Dec 15

So basically small CR/DL hikes and promise to talk by Dec 15th. lolz.