Yesterday Reid said things were moving, but he wasn't sure in what direction. Doesn't seem to be much real movement.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
PoliGAF 2013 |OT3| 1,000 Years of Darkness and Nuclear Fallout
- Thread starter bananas
- Start date
- Status
Yesterday Reid said things were moving, but he wasn't sure in what direction. Doesn't seem to be much real movement.
Yeah, that sounds almost as pathetic as "we've got to get something out of this, and even we don't know what that is" or whatever.
You seem to be here.
On topic: Since this is unprecedented territory, what would happen if we defaulted and public opinion of the GOP plummeted even more, and they decide to raise the debt ceiling and pass a budget? What is the consequences, other than market panic, of defaulting for a couple of days? I ask this because I'm generally concerned that it will be taken this far, and I hate to think of the consequences of a default, even if it's temporary.
ClassyPenguin
Banned
I think a lot of people are saying similar things by using different language hence the confusion. Or, so it seems to me but I haven't slept in a day.
Joe Molotov
Member
Protect the stars and bars, boys!
StopMakingSense
Member
Woo let's burn this motherfucker down!
theprodigy
Member
ClassyPenguin
Banned
2012 just hurt them so much.
What would a dissenting opinion on politics look like right now, exactly? "We should definitely default on our debt, it's gonna be awesome?" There aren't a bunch of those around, no.
The thing about the MMT topic is that, while I don't think most of PoliGAF agrees with it completely (for example, I think most of us would probably not want to stop issuing bonds just now), most of PoliGAF does seem to be Krugman-style Keynesians, which means that we generally agree at the moment that we need to vastly expand government spending, and all the people who don't want to do that seem to basically be goldbugs and inflation hawks, who keep advancing arguments that have very little to do with reality. So if that's your standard, again, there aren't a lot of people arguing it, no. But in fairness there really aren't a lot of professional economists arguing against expanding government spending right now either.
RustyNails
Member
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
I think we need to expand spending, but I wouldn't say "vastly." Hell, getting back to pre-2010 levels, or even pre-stimulus levels would be fine. I'm a "status quo" kinda guy, although we haven't been there in a while.
It is Cruz though.
But why is Costa still quoting him? He tends to put emphasis on the things that really matter, not the trolls.
I should mention that I'm pretty sure there are a bunch of socialists in PolIGAF, and they don't post much about how we should be aggressively restricting and distorting the free market with government-controlled monopolies on all forms of infrastructure coupled with a guaranteed wage for all citizens, even though we obviously should. So it's not like there aren't dissenting opinions! Maybe just not in the direction some might prefer.
Well, Cruz attempting to stir up the House right and make it that much more difficult for Boehner probably does matter, since the House is still struggling to find a debt ceiling bill that they can pass.
Well, Cruz attempting to stir up the House right and make it that much more difficult for Boehner probably does matter, since the House is still struggling to find a debt ceiling bill that they can pass.
...yeah, and we've only got three days.
This may not end well. Reid really needs to act first, especially if Costa was correct in indicating that Ryan's plan was only a backup should the Senate fail to act.
I think they're pretty low at this point. That was really an out for the GOP House -- if they just couldn't make a clean CR happen, they could at least prevent default. But since they obviously can't move a debt ceiling hike, it doesn't matter. The Senate has ALREADY passed a clean continuing resolution, so the yoking of the CR and the debt ceiling together is really only for the House's benefit -- by tying the issues together, it allows Boehner to throw the bill on the floor as one package instead of having to hold two votes the Tea Party will be against. But given that they passed a clean CR already, if they can manage to come up with a debt ceiling deal, they can always drop the clean CR on it. The arguing in the Senate right now is basically entirely about specific end dates for the CR and the debt ceiling. (And some minor argument about the fig leaf (probably med device tax) that Republicans want, because Reid thinks they need to give up something in exchange for them, but since it's a fig leaf, the GOP doesn't actually want it that much and so can't figure out what they can trade for it.)
I said this on Twitter a while back, by the way, but the only real reform we need to prevent this shit from happening is to change the way bills reach the floor of the House. Give the Minority Leader the right to bring up a bill every so often, and this problem could have been resolved like two weeks ago.
Yes. They live in a bubble where whatever they say is truth and law.
Forget poll numbers and the lives that are effected. We have to kill Obamacare and stick it to those Democrats!
Default ahoy!
I'd rather legislatively remove the debt ceiling all together. If the conservative wing of this country wants to hang themselves every couple of decades thinking they can get the upper hand using a government shutdown then be my guest, they'll shutdown themselves into complete obscurity even faster than they're already doing.
Here it is.
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/government-shutdown-debt-ceiling-default-update-98260.html
This is the offer that will end the crisis.
You might notice it's also...Reid's clean CR, tied to Reid's clean debt ceiling increase, tied to going to conference, tied to an offer of a fig leaf, if McConnell can come up with one. In other words, the offer is "nothing, but you can lie about it." Which is exactly where we expected to end up.
We'll see whether McConnell offers the sequestration lift in exchange for the tax delay. Note that Obamacare ALREADY contains income verification, but it was delayed for practical reasons, so that's also an offer of nothing.
politico said:
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/government-shutdown-debt-ceiling-default-update-98260.html
This is the offer that will end the crisis.
You might notice it's also...Reid's clean CR, tied to Reid's clean debt ceiling increase, tied to going to conference, tied to an offer of a fig leaf, if McConnell can come up with one. In other words, the offer is "nothing, but you can lie about it." Which is exactly where we expected to end up.
We'll see whether McConnell offers the sequestration lift in exchange for the tax delay. Note that Obamacare ALREADY contains income verification, but it was delayed for practical reasons, so that's also an offer of nothing.
That's actually a longer CR than the one already passed right? Some agencies can operate just fine with these months-long CRs. Mine, however, cannot do project planning properly under such conditions.
Thanks for such a concise recap. So it really does seem like this will end up coming from the Senate and dropping it in the House.
Perhaps you need some type of forums affirmative action.
A little longer, yeah, you're right. The previous one was til Nov 15, which seemed a lot longer when they originally passed it.
TheHeretic
Banned
Sure, make me a mod and I can start laying some smackdown on liberals!
Will you try to turn GAF Gold accounts against us by telling them that we are the reason we lost animated avatars?
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
I don't even understand the point of offering them anything, even a fig leaf. At the end of the day, nothing has changed since the beginning of this mess. No bill that passes the Senate will get majority GOP support in the House. Which means that to end this crisis, Boehner will need to bring a bill to the floor that will pass with Dems + a few Republicans. That's the only way this ends.
Vestal
Junior Member
if this passes the senate with republican support the pressure on Bohner to act would be ridiculous. Will Bohner ignore it, ignore the Self imposed Haster rule and pass it with democrats? It will be all on him.
ridethepiggy
Banned
WTF? This is bullshit if it happens. And income verification isn't needed as they already have to verify their income with subsidy amount when they pay their taxes. This is ridiculous and will slow up the enrollment process even more.
PhoenixDark
Banned
There's no way Obama agrees to the income verification thing later today. I hate giving up the medical device tax but take joy knowing it's not enough for house republicans.
Did you read that post? Guys, Obamacare already has income verification! It was delayed a year! This is an offer of putting something into Obamacare that's already in Obamacare. We should definitely take any offer of doing something we're already doing. To steal a joke from Beutler, we should also offer to remove the death panels.
jamesinclair
Banned
it's not a removal of the medical device tax, but a delay of it, right?
RustyNails
Member
The govt is open only until mid dec? The fuck is reid doing
Pretty much. Right now most of the non-austerity-first frameworks advocate similar things, but overall I'm not big on MMT as it's elaborated on by MMT advocates.
Also, I could dissent more, but I don't wanna. Not my idea of a good time!
Income verification for Obamacare seems like a voter fraud redux. Lying about your income to get subsidies on the exchange is tantamount to tax fraud. People pay exorbitant fines and go to jail for that shit. No one is going to risk that for, at most, a year's worth of partially subsidized health insurance premiums. It's beyond illogical.
Reid specifically doesn't want a longer CR because he wants to fight for sequester reduction.
eBay Huckster
Member
Trying to tie the next CR showdown to sequester renegotiation.
Similarly, I've got quite a few problems with MMT but posters like TheHeretic have actually expounded upon most of them already, and I really don't feel like posting exactly the same thing as someone else well after they've done so, so the end result is me not appearing to dissent.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Actually you're right, just re-read the article.
Reid and Obama should make it clear that this is the best republicans will get. Time is running out, the people have spoken.
Will Cruz reject unanimous consent? I tend to doubt it but it's an interesting dynamic.
RustyNails
Member
My brother has immigration hearing on Dec 13th because his old attorney snafu'd the dates and the case dragged on. He has been waiting for 2 years for this date and we hear the hearings during the shutdown were pushed back 12 months. The govt better not shutdown during that time. I am very concerned we might get another shutdown.
eBay Huckster
Member
I'd expect (but am not entirely sure - and if I was I'd be in Congress) that if there's going to be another shutdown, it's going to start a bit later in the month (if not just before January 1) such that it's near-simultaneous with the start of the next round of sequester cuts.
RustyNails
Member
I really hope so. Just plain tired of this nonsense. This is people's lives we are playing with.
SpeedySwaf
Member
It should also be clarified that the Dems are open to the tax delay and income verification if they get something in return for them, according to the article. So if the GOP refuses to budge on that, Dems should be able to say they couldn't get anything in return.
- Status