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PoliGAF 2013 |OT3| 1,000 Years of Darkness and Nuclear Fallout

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Thankfully I have no professional accreditation to lose, or industry ethics guidelines to follow.

On a related note, this might be the first time in American history where people fall over themselves to pay more in taxes.
I think rich people would be wise to pay more in taxes. They'd make more money with higher taxes in a growing economy than low taxes in a stagnant economy because people have no money to spend.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I think rich people would be wise to pay more in taxes. They'd make more money with higher taxes in a growing economy than low taxes in a stagnant economy because people have no money to spend.

Yes but that would require thinking ahead and as we've seen most companies are incapable of this. Why would the people who run them be any better?
 

Jooney

Member
On another note, I was around and my brother and dad were talking on the phone (on speaker) and they brought up the idea of making it so that only land owners could vote. And they were all for it. My brother was all for it, and he fucking rents an apartment for crying out loud. I. Don't. Get. It. I cannot fathom this bubble conservatives live in anymore. I honestly can't. Where do they get that this is a good idea?!

This whole shutdown has brought a carnival of stupid.

You should have asked them to see if they think that it is a good idea if only land owners could own guns. When they are done raging at you, ask them calmly why they think it is tyranny to take a man's gun away but not his vote.
 
I'm getting more and more concerned that the Republicans are going to let us run right over that limit.

seems familiar!

12033677-large.jpg
 

pigeon

Banned
So, I take it we (meaning the world) are probably hosed, right?

Eh.

Here's what I see happening:

* Senate passes a combined CR/debt ceiling. Maybe some spending lift in exchange for something dumb like med device tax.
* On Wednesday, Boehner brings it to a vote and it goes through. Maybe tacks on the budget negotiation between Ryan and Murray.
* Ryan and Murray trade sequestration lift for entitlement cuts in early January.
* Boehner may or may not get unseated early. Depends on details. In either case, Paul Ryan is the next Speaker of the House.
* Then Nancy Pelosi.
 
Eh.

Here's what I see happening:

* Senate passes a combined CR/debt ceiling. Maybe some spending lift in exchange for something dumb like med device tax.
* On Wednesday, Boehner brings it to a vote and it goes through. Maybe tacks on the budget negotiation between Ryan and Murray.
* Ryan and Murray trade sequestration lift for entitlement cuts in early January.
* Boehner may or may not get unseated early. Depends on details. In either case, Paul Ryan is the next Speaker of the House.
* Then Nancy Pelosi.

Oh god please yes.

My only concern is that Democrats being productive in 2014-2016 will lead to ammo for the Republican PR campaign and a possible retaking of the House by Republicans in 2016. Another Obamacare level backlash would not be good. =(

At this point, it seems like getting anything done = public flips out.
 

CzarTim

Member
I don't think Dems will fold on the med device tax, even for sequester lifts. If they let Republicans have even a tiny victory to show off to their base, it will just fuel this bad behavior.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
It's funny, last sunday was when the republicans seemed to take a step backwards in negotiations, and this sunday republicans seemed to take a step backwards in negotiations

I wonder if there's something about the sunday talk shows that makes them lose their minds. I bet as the week goes on things will look better just as it did last week.

If they were rational, and bothered to do any research into how DRM is viewed by the plurality of gamers, they would have seen the backlash coming from miles away.

They thought that they could change that attitude with good messaging, and that their polling would be inaccurate any because while it's easy to say if you like or dislike something, that doesn't mean they'll base their decision off it when it actually matters.
 
Eh.

Here's what I see happening:

* Senate passes a combined CR/debt ceiling. Maybe some spending lift in exchange for something dumb like med device tax.
* On Wednesday, Boehner brings it to a vote and it goes through. Maybe tacks on the budget negotiation between Ryan and Murray.
* Ryan and Murray trade sequestration lift for entitlement cuts in early January.
* Boehner may or may not get unseated early. Depends on details. In either case, Paul Ryan is the next Speaker of the House.
* Then Nancy Pelosi.

I agree, well except for the final point of course.

For those freaking out today...let's not forget Boehner knew this day was coming, for two weeks in fact. I think the House has one last joke in its box - the Lankston bill plus some other Obamacare thing. But after today's WWII museum protests I'm starting to wonder whether such a weak bill could even garner enough republican support to pass. The House doesn't like the Collins plan, which makes me believe they won't like just about anything Boehner draws up tomorrow. This could be the "Plan B" redux we've been waiting for.

On Paul Ryan: it's no coincidence that National Review, Weekly Standard, and other conservative sites/publications have spent a lot of time reporting on his every move this week. Reading them, you'd think republicans were on the verge of winning - or would be winning if they had followed Ryan from the beginning. Boehner is done, that's clear. I agree he probably won't lose his Speakership this year, or in January. But I think he'll be gone sooner than later. And you know what, I think it'll be a very good thing for Obama. Ryan has a lot of political capital and strength on the right, he can likely get deals done that Boehner couldn't. Imagine Paul Ryan coming to House republicans in 2011 with the president's chained CPI/means testing/etc deal. I honestly think he could have gotten that done.
 
It's funny, last sunday was when the republicans seemed to take a step backwards in negotiations, and this sunday republicans seemed to take a step backwards in negotiations

I wonder if there's something about the sunday talk shows that makes them lose their minds. I bet as the week goes on things will look better just as it did last week.

Considering we only have a handful of days left to raise the DL, things need to start getting better pretty quickly
 
40% of the country still would vote for the GOP.


Our country is full of morons who are too stupid to be given the responsibility of democracy.

you know, I really wonder how much of the vote a Republican presidential candidate would get if they pulled an Akin
 

Unstable

Member
Does any Republican actually want the speaker ship? It's not like who ever gets it can some how can unite the party. It would be the same situation we are in now.
 

Mario

Sidhe / PikPok
My only concern is that Democrats being productive in 2014-2016 will lead to ammo for the Republican PR campaign and a possible retaking of the House by Republicans in 2016. Another Obamacare level backlash would not be good. =(

Is the GOP going to have the credibility with a material enough percentage of the population to negatively spin whatever the Dems might get across the line in the same way that they demonized Obamacare if death panels, massive premium hikes, doctor emigration, and economic collapse etc don't emerge?
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Considering we only have a handful of days left to raise the DL, things need to start getting better pretty quickly

Last Friday everyone thought the deal was right around the corner. Now everyone thinks we're doomed.

A lot can change in 3 days.
 
That y-axis is a little misleading, though. It only goes from 40 to 50.

On a normal y-axis plot you wouldn't see a difference between the two. A little counterintuitive, after all it's only a 7% difference, but that represents millions of people. A 7 point swing is huge, which you wouldn't see clearly on a normal plot.
 
On a normal y-axis plot you wouldn't see a difference between the two. A little counterintuitive, after all it's only a 7% difference, but that represents millions of people. A 7 point swing is huge, which you wouldn't see clearly on a normal plot.

Yep. And as the link said, the sensitivity is turned all the way up.
 

ICKE

Banned
Why are progressives not hitting the streets and protesting current dysfunction in Washington? It's clear the conservatives are on a fool's errand but at least they are showing some spirit, trying to be active in the political process.

There's a real danger of default right now - another recession would be horrific for people in their 20's and 30's.

If it carries on like this people in Europe will probably want to cut economic ties with US instead of trying to go for free-trade agreements. If a bunch of delusional representatives are willing to burn down the entire house in their quest to remove a piece of legislation... then that's clearly a sign of being an unreliable business partner.
 

fallagin

Member
On another note, I was around and my brother and dad were talking on the phone (on speaker) and they brought up the idea of making it so that only land owners could vote. And they were all for it. My brother was all for it, and he fucking rents an apartment for crying out loud. I. Don't. Get. It. I cannot fathom this bubble conservatives live in anymore. I honestly can't. Where do they get that this is a good idea?!

This whole shutdown has brought a carnival of stupid.

Jesus H. That has to be the worst thing ive heard.
 

Chichikov

Member
Jesus H. That has to be the worst thing ive heard.
Why do you hate America?

Until 1792 there was a property requirement it all states, it took decades to fully eliminate, it wasn't until 1856 that is the last state (North Carlonia, I know shocking) removed them and only in 1868 when the 14th amendment was ratified that such provisions were banned. Yeah originalism is just a great way to run a country.
 

CzarTim

Member
Like I said earlier. A lot of these people want us to be like Mississippi in the 1850s.

Living people complain about how things currently are. Dead people never complain about how things used to be. Therefore we must revert back to how things used to be or make everyone dead. Lucky for us the Tea Party proudly advocates either solution.
 

Diablos

Member
Costa:

In the House, budget chairman Paul Ryan’s allies tell me he’s leading the talks, and looking hard at a package that would extend the debt ceiling for six weeks and include a handful of conservative provisions, such as strengthening the eligibility requirements for Obamacare and an elimination of the federal contributions for congressional health-care plans. But this gambit is far from policy; it’s more of a contingency plan, should Republicans struggle to craft an alternative.

“A lot of what we do is going to depend on three things: the markets, the Senate, and our next conference meeting,” says a House GOP leadership aide. “We’re working with our members to finalize our plan, and we’re keeping an eye on the Senate. We’re also going to be ready to pass a short-term, six-week bill, should we all need some more time to come together.”
Well that's uh... good to know... I guess.
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/361123/divided-and-uneasy-robert-costa
 

Mario

Sidhe / PikPok

Riding this right to the edge. And with a ridiculous proposal. No CR? Obamacare concessions? And a DL extension that allows everybody to play this game again right before Christmas?


Edit: so, upcoming Fox News segment where they are apparently going to look at the Administration's "War On Veterans".

I guess that joins Obama's War On Christmas, War on Hanukkah, War on Fossil Fuels, War on Halloween, War on the Constitution, War on Ladies Night, War on Fisherman, War on Salt, War on Chocolate Milk, War on Sugary Drinks, War on Food, War on Potatoes, War On Conservative Women, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vzxU2fDcrp0
 

Diablos

Member
‏@robertcostaNRO 12m
MT @deirdrewalshcnn Manchin on CNN pushing bipartisan debt/CR deal he and others drafted w/ Collins, signals he's open to shifting dates

@robertcostaNRO 47m
My report/chat for NPR's @MorningEdition this AM: Senate talks stalled over sequester, House may move on 6-wk DL ext

MEH
 
Oh god please yes.

My only concern is that Democrats being productive in 2014-2016 will lead to ammo for the Republican PR campaign and a possible retaking of the House by Republicans in 2016. Another Obamacare level backlash would not be good. =(

At this point, it seems like getting anything done = public flips out.
To be fair it's unlikely muc will get done in 2015. Presidents become rather irrelevant during their last couple years in office. I don't think Obama will be able to "run up the score" in his final years, basically. If immigration isn't done, I can't help but think it'll have to wait for Hillary.

There would have to be a fuck up of huge proportions to hurt Hillary in 2016 though, such as scandal or continued economic stagnation.
 

Diablos

Member
To be fair it's unlikely muc will get done in 2015. Presidents become rather irrelevant during their last couple years in office. I don't think Obama will be able to "run up the score" in his final years, basically. If immigration isn't done, I can't help but think it'll have to wait for Hillary.

There would have to be a fuck up of huge proportions to hurt Hillary in 2016 though, such as scandal or continued economic stagnation.
A default with a (D) as President never helps!

But I think Boehner will come to his senses... amirite
 

thefro

Member
To be fair it's unlikely muc will get done in 2015. Presidents become rather irrelevant during their last couple years in office. I don't think Obama will be able to "run up the score" in his final years, basically. If immigration isn't done, I can't help but think it'll have to wait for Hillary.

Well, we're pretty much in uncharted territory in modern political history if the Dems take back the House in 2014, so I wouldn't say that Obama would be a lame duck that couldn't do anything in '15-16. I don't think they'd do as much as 2009 & 2010 but they'd get quite a bit done.
 

pigeon

Banned
So I'm finding it kind of amusing that certain main-OT posters seem to think this thread's nothing but an MMT echo chamber.

Obviously, if we're not constantly attacking empty vessel to the point that the thread is unusable, we must be his acolytes and completely agree with him. What possible third option, perhaps occupying some sort of "middle ground" between the two poles, could there be?
 
Obviously, if we're not constantly attacking empty vessel to the point that the thread is unusable, we must be his acolytes and completely agree with him. What possible third option, perhaps occupying some sort of "middle ground" between the two poles, could there be?

Austrian voodoo economics.
 

ido

Member
So I'm finding it kind of amusing that certain main-OT posters seem to think this thread's nothing but an MMT echo chamber.

That topic really took an interesting turn. I should have never linked that thread about MMT (even though I did think it was a great read).
 
It is an MMT echochamber, and an echochamber generally. Is there anybody of any dissenting opinion on politics even in this thread anymore?

Not everyone here agrees with EV completely on MMT. We have no need to worry about becoming Greece, but I certainly wouldn't want to become Japan either.
 
Not everyone here agrees with EV completely on MMT. We have no need to worry about becoming Greece, but I certainly wouldn't want to become Japan either.

But Japan has tried to control inflation until recently. It's not a matter of deficit. And it's not a fair comparison, as an island nation.
 
MMT is intriguing, but any criticisms get minimized pretty quickly. The truth is, we don't really know what policy based on MMT would really look like or what the effects would be. We can guess at inflation, but it's a guess. And there's no telling what transparent understanding of some of the implications of MMT would do to the psychological aspects of the various markets.
 
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