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April 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes May 12th

Sony has june with Last of Us, it won't do crazy numbers but I think it will have PS4 outselling the Xbone in june.
lol
That's if it comes out in June, which it better.

Yeah, that's what I think.

I think TLOU release date will be one of Sony's minor highlights at e3, as in the release date will follow shortly after the event. Or something.
 
How are June sales normally like? I can't imagine it being too high since Summer has the biggest droughts (gaming and otherwise).

I guess a good E3 could get people hyped up enough to buy systems just on the basis of things to come. I mean, it got plenty to buy the PS4, and Sony's E3 didn't even show many "things to come".
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Excluding April results:

Xbox 360 sold 41 million to consumers in the USA and PS3 sold a mere 26 million.

You can see how the USA is absolutely crucial to Microsoft's Xbox One strategies. NPD is really, really important to them.

Yes. This is the reason why keeping it close or at parity with Sony in the US is actually a disasterous result for them. A lead in the US is critical to their global strategy.
 

kinoki

Illness is the doctor to whom we pay most heed; to kindness, to knowledge, we make promise only; pain we obey.
Going to bed now. Start the party without me. I'll join in 8 hours. Let there be drama and let there be joy. And I hope you're right Aqua. I believe in your prediction.
 
Perfect example of just how much it does not matter early on. I'm guessing people would look at that and think the PS3 would have tanked. That's not the reality though.

I wouldn't be surprised if the X1 is in the 80k-120k range and the PS4 was in the 150k-250k range. Despite that.....history has shown that a console (the PS3) can have those numbers and do just fine with eventual adjustments.

Good stuff.

No, not for any product with the budget of the Xbone ($1 billion investment in games etc).

Sales at the current rate are far from acceptable with the investment they have made. It is not even sustainable for very much longer before serious questions start getting asked at board level.
 

TalonJH

Member
Perfect example of just how much it does not matter early on. I'm guessing people would look at that and think the PS3 would have tanked. That's not the reality though.

I wouldn't be surprised if the X1 is in the 80k-120k range and the PS4 was in the 150k-250k range. Despite that.....history has shown that a console (the PS3) can have those numbers and do just fine with eventual adjustments.

Good stuff.

Well, NPD is the NA only. In the US the 360 still has a huge lead on the PS3, so those numbers actually just say that market share will stay PS4>XB1.
 

Guymelef

Member
Meanwhile at Major Nelson's table.
tumblr_lt7137rXvc1r17215o1_500.gif
 

Hoo-doo

Banned
People think TLOU will be enough to overcome a month where a 100$ XB1 pricedrop goes into effect?

Because I think the XB1 pricedrop sales spike is going to be a one-time thing, but it'll probably be pretty substantial.
I could easily see it fall back to "regular" numbers a month later after all the fence-sitters bought their cheaper SKU.
 

Tobor

Member
They won't win June.

Titanfall and a $50 rebate everywhere couldn't get it done. $100 won't get it done either.
 
Not me. I was shocked at March, but I don't think a price drop alone will push the Xbone over the PS4. Maybe if a big exclusive was launching in June too, but I don't think a price drop alone will do it.
Right. Without Kinect, XBone is the same price as PS4, but it's still considerably weaker. Without Kinect, you lose voice commands and the ability to control your TV; all of the unique selling points are gone now.

That means MS are tasked with persuading customers to pay the same price for substantially reduced performance in 99% of the games they play, but the only carrot they have left at this point is their own 1st-party offerings.

Once the current batch of 3rd-party exclusives come out, that'll be it for XBone. Apart from first party, while Gold set the bar last generation, MS are clearly trying to catch up to Sony in terms of value offered, and even then Gold still costs 20% more. What else do they have to offer? Meanwhile Sony have The Show and the superior, expanded version of Watch Dogs this month, and will likely kick off June with a big Morpheus debut and Destiny beta at E3. Plus Uncharted 4, etc.

Removing Kinect makes XBone less unattractive, but it doesn't make it attractive. When Spencer says, "XBox is all about games, games, games now," what he's really saying is, "The only thing we have left to offer you is your own fond memories of games created by developers who no longer work for us. :'("
 

QaaQer

Member
No, not for any product with the budget of the Xbone ($1 billion investment in games etc).

Sales at the current rate are far from acceptable with the investment they have made. It is not even sustainable for very much longer before serious questions start getting asked at board level.

.

Npd numbers auger poorly for the future of Sony in handhelds, MS in consoles, and Nintendo in both.

It is way more fun when everyone is making money and the only thing the numbers are good for are bragging rights.
 

Hoo-doo

Banned
They won't win June.

Titanfall and a $50 rebate everywhere couldn't get it done. $100 won't get it done either.

The titanfall deal was a great deal, but it was not widely available everywhere.
A systematic 100$ drop is going to have a way larger effect, partly also because a big part of May sales will shift towards June.
No-one in their right mind is getting a X1 when it's advertised to be 100$ cheaper in a few weeks.
 
The titanfall deal was a great deal, but it was not widely available everywhere.
A systematic 100$ drop is going to have a way larger effect, partly also because a big part of May sales will shift towards June.
No-one in their right mind is getting a X1 when it's advertised to be 100$ cheaper in a few weeks.

Unless they for whatever reason want a kinect, then in that case it's the same price.
 

Jomjom

Banned
Perfect example of just how much it does not matter early on. I'm guessing people would look at that and think the PS3 would have tanked. That's not the reality though.

I wouldn't be surprised if the X1 is in the 80k-120k range and the PS4 was in the 150k-250k range. Despite that.....history has shown that a console (the PS3) can have those numbers and do just fine with eventual adjustments.

Good stuff.

But these are NPD numbers and the ps3 did tank in the US. It's down by like 20 million units here isn't it?

So those numbers are actually in line with how it all turned out. Just like if we had early WW numbers I'm guessing they are also in line with how the 3 ended selling WW.
 
The TF bundle was offered and available everywhere it mattered

BUT a $100 cheaper SKU will be more effective as some consumers would view TF as being worthless if they don't value FPS online-only games. Same with Kinect, if they don't want it why would they put any value to it?

I think MS has a strong chance of winning June with this strategy
 

A_Gorilla

Banned
This gen so far has been crazy. I can't believe we're less than 7 months in and already MS is essentially forfeiting an entire month to Sony.
 

TyrantII

Member
People think TLOU will be enough to overcome a month where a 100$ XB1 pricedrop goes into effect?

Because I think the XB1 pricedrop sales spike is going to be a one-time thing, but it'll probably be pretty substantial.
I could easily see it fall back to "regular" numbers a month later after all the fence-sitters bought their cheaper SKU.

If you're fence sitting and paid attention the last few, why not continue and see how it shakes out?

Heck the titanfall bundle was/is still a better deal than the new SKU, which actually is a little higher than you'd expect without kinect. Jumping on the bundle made more sense.

Not sure if TLOU will move systems, but it will sell gangbuster to all the 360 convert's and to those waiting for the next gen version. There's a lot of them.
 

MikahR

Banned
This gen so far has been crazy. I can't believe we're less than 7 months in and already MS is essentially forfeiting an entire month to Sony.

One month out of 6-7 possible years doesn't sound like the biggest deal, especially when the outcome will help them move consoles down the road.
 

Jomjom

Banned
Not sure if TLOU will move systems, but it will sell gangbuster to all the 360 convert's and to those waiting for the next gen version. There's a lot of them.

Are there really that many 360 converts though? I think majority are still the ps3 owners who upgraded because they were dissatisfied. 360 people haven't gone next gen yet.
 
The TF bundle was offered and available everywhere it mattered

BUT a $100 cheaper SKU will be more effective as some consumers would view TF as being worthless if they don't value FPS online-only games. Same with Kinect, if they don't want it why would they put any value to it?

I think MS has a strong chance of winning June with this strategy

I'm not sure I believe MS will win June, but I agree the $399 standard price tag will be more effective than the retailer discounts on the TF bundles.

I think a lot people didn't see the value in Kinect or TF so a $399 barebones console will be more attractive to them. Also, as the new console sales are transitioning from the enthusiast crowd towards drive-by shoppers, the standard $399 tag will help a lot in that regard.
 
MS would have been smart to have made the titanfall sku without kinect for 400$. I think for the most part the people that buy a console for a game like titanfall and the people that have interest in a device like kinect are not the same.
 

Somnia

Member
The TF bundle was offered and available everywhere it mattered

Correct but the "price" drop of $50 was not available everywhere. GameStop for example never dropped it to $450 like amazon, etc.

You can make fun of GameStop all day long, but they make up a very very large chunk of game and system sales.
 
The TF bundle was offered and available everywhere it mattered

BUT a $100 cheaper SKU will be more effective as some consumers would view TF as being worthless if they don't value FPS online-only games. Same with Kinect, if they don't want it why would they put any value to it?

I think MS has a strong chance of winning June with this strategy

The discounted TF bundles weren't heavily advertised and the $100 cheaper SKU most likely will be. MS should hire their own version of Kevin Butler to advertise their changes and have him be likable and intentionally funny. Also, fire Yusuf Mehdi or keep him from the public, he's unlikable and unintentionally funny.
 
The TF bundle was offered and available everywhere it mattered

BUT a $100 cheaper SKU will be more effective as some consumers would view TF as being worthless if they don't value FPS online-only games. Same with Kinect, if they don't want it why would they put any value to it?

I think MS has a strong chance of winning June with this strategy

I completely agree with your reasoning, except I think MS still loses in June.

At E3, Sony may announce some kind of enticing new firmware feature or other immediate improvement to the PS4, but even if they don't, and instead hold their cards to see how June plays out, I think they will still win the NPD on the back of greater demand despite price parity.
 
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