• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

April 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes May 12th

TyrantII

Member
Are there really that many 360 converts though? I think majority are still the ps3 owners who upgraded because they were dissatisfied. 360 people haven't gone next gen yet.

100% anecdotal, but my friends list doubled since last gen and most of them were 360 users. Got over 200 friends now.

Adopting this gen is going much faster. The thirst is real.
 

TomShoe

Banned
Sorry no Elder Scrolls Online for 6 months. Been delayed

I thought ESO was delayed (and Ubisoft Montpellier is releasing Valiant Hearts: The Great War)

Those are the only games I've heard about.

Dat Elder Scrolls Online delay tho.

And ESO is delayed. So not much. The price cut isnt going to be enough.

You failed me, Wikipedia. Also left out Pier Solar HD.

As for PS4, pretty much the same, just add The Swapper.
 

ethomaz

Banned
Are there really that many 360 converts though? I think majority are still the ps3 owners who upgraded because they were dissatisfied. 360 people haven't gone next gen yet.
Yeap... I read from some random guy that Xbox fans loves 360 and PS fans hated PS3.

:)
 

FiggyCal

Banned
42% of Xbox 360 owners (that is, users who owned only an Xbox 360) opted for the Xbox One, while 51% of PlayStation 3 owners veered towards the PS4. The number one reason cited for why these shoppers purchased what they did? Brand loyalty (at 32% for Xbox 360 owners and 30% for PS3 owners).

Despite this expected result, there were notably a higher number of former Xbox 360 users who didn't purchase any new console yet, claiming that the price was too high and that they were waiting for a deal.

http://dealnews.com/features/The-PS...ecause-It-Appeals-to-Swing-Gamers/990561.html
 
I think you're overestimating TLoU remastered.

It's a HD remake of a game that's less than 1 year old, it's not going to set the charts alight or do more than average sales.

It's more attractive to the people who never owned a PS3, which includes 360 owners who are still holding out on next gen consoles.
 

The Llama

Member
I think you're overestimating TLoU remastered.

It's a HD remake of a game that's less than 1 year old, it's not going to set the charts alight or do more than average sales.

Depends what you mean by "average" sales. It's definitely not gonna do TF/COD/whatever numbers, but I could see it doing almost as well as inFamous:SS did (350k-400k US; inFamous was around 500k IIRC, and I'm not sure TLoU would hit that).
 
Depends what you mean by "average" sales. It's definitely not gonna do TF/COD/whatever numbers, but I could see it doing almost as well as inFamous:SS did (350k-400k US; inFamous was around 500k IIRC, and I'm not sure TLoU would hit that).

Plenty of existing PS3 owners would double dip as well.
 

Elios83

Member
I see many people are talking about TLOU PS4, but the game might be released in August btw.
There's also GTAV as the wild card.
 
I beg to differ (hugely)

Fair enough.

It's more attractive to the people who never owned a PS3, which includes 360 owners who are still holding out on next gen consoles.

It's a nice addition to the catalogue, but it's not gong to push anyone to drop $400 on a console just to play it when there's a much cheaper option available.

Depends what you mean by "average" sales. It's definitely not gonna do TF/COD/whatever numbers, but I could see it doing almost as well as inFamous:SS did (300k-400k).

I think it'll do considerably less. 200K at best. I could be wrong of course, but I don't believe the market is there for a remake of a game that's less than a year old.

I'll be buying it, but I can't just see it doing all that great.
 
It's a nice addition to the catalogue, but it's not gong to push anyone to drop $400 on a console just to play it when there's a much cheaper option available.

Why would you drop 200$ on nearly dead console with no future (PS3) when for 400$ you can enjoy better version and be set for next 5 years ?
 

GribbleGrunger

Dreams in Digital
Fair enough.

It's a nice addition to the catalogue, but it's not gong to push anyone to drop $400 on a console just to play it when there's a much cheaper option available.

I think it'll do considerably less. 200K at best. I could be wrong of course, but I don't believe the market is there for a remake of a game that's less than a year old.

I'll be buying it, but I can't just see it doing all that great.

I'm don't personally think Sony will want to sacrifice TLOU just to try and stymie sales of the Kinectless XB1 though. But I think with a big marketing campaign, TLOU could shift a good 300k - 500k consoles over three months.
 
Why would you drop 200$ on nearly dead console with no future (PS3) when for 400$ you can enjoy better version and be set for next 5 years ?

I'm sure you can pick up a used PS3 for a lot less than $200 and I wouldn't say it's dead, it's still got a lot of life left in compared to say the 360 and it has a vastly bigger and more appealing back catalogue than either current gen consoles.
 
Yes. This is the reason why keeping it close or at parity with Sony in the US is actually a disasterous result for them. A lead in the US is critical to their global strategy.

it affects their entire strategy. They want to partner more than they want to internally develop, and that gets tricky if the script is flipped like it has.
 
I'm don't personally think Sony will want to sacrifice TLOU just to try and stymie sales of the Kinectless XB1 though. But I think with a big marketing campaign, TLOU could shift a good 300k - 500k consoles over three months.

300-500k consoles over 3 months seems very optimistic. Unless it's bundled with every PS4 console. I don't doubt it will sell, I just don't see it doing better than average sales and I certainly don't see it selling consoles in the same way I:SS did or how Watch Dogs might.

Let's not forget that Watch Dogs is the next big marketing campaign for Sony. They'll be running ads/billboards, etc all throughout June for the WD bundle.
 

Pain

Banned
Are there really that many 360 converts though? I think majority are still the ps3 owners who upgraded because they were dissatisfied. 360 people haven't gone next gen yet.
Can't believe people are buying anything Microsoft says these days.
 
I think you're overestimating TLoU remastered.

It's a HD remake of a game that's less than 1 year old, it's not going to set the charts alight or do more than average sales.

The Last of Us is a massive IP. It was released last year and has already sold 6 million+.

Combine that with how the PS4 has attracted people who don't have a PS3 and I could see a 200k opening.

I don't think it will light the charts as well, just do well for a HD remaster.
 
It looks like April was a horrible month for the XOne. Keep in mind that this is only April, too. I can't imagine how bad it is for the XOne this month. The Kinect-less SKU was announced for a reason and it wasn't to "give consumers more choices".
 

Ty4on

Member
Perfect example of just how much it does not matter early on. I'm guessing people would look at that and think the PS3 would have tanked. That's not the reality though.

I wouldn't be surprised if the X1 is in the 80k-120k range and the PS4 was in the 150k-250k range. Despite that.....history has shown that a console (the PS3) can have those numbers and do just fine with eventual adjustments.

Good stuff.
Not to be all "Xbox is dooomed!", but the PS3 did not do just fine. It lost Sony a stupid amount of money and positioning and for a long time it only sold because of the name and belief it was the most powerful. To this day it's still a bit of a mess to make games on and quite expensive.

The Xbox One is not the mess the PS3 was, but it lacks the name and momentum that the PS3 had.
 

TyrantII

Member
It's a HD remake of a game that's less than 1 year old, it's not going to set the charts alight or do more than average sales.

If Re-makes/Re-releases of critically and well selling games are now bad, MS is a world of hurt this year.

TLOU sold 6 million on a 80 million installation base. Then there's the thirst for next gen, gfx heavy titles to justify peoples next gen purchase.

It'll be a slow burn, but I see Sony selling a lot of TLOU:DE's being the critically acclaimed game it is. There's plenty of PS3 users who haven't touched it. Then add in 360 converts and double dippers like myself.
 
Are there really that many 360 converts though? I think majority are still the ps3 owners who upgraded because they were dissatisfied. 360 people haven't gone next gen yet.

The sad thing is I have a friend who sincerely tried to argue this to me the other day.
:/
 
it affects their entire strategy. They want to partner more than they want to internally develop, and that gets tricky if the script is flipped like it has.

The situation is entirely different from last generation. MS can no longer rely on moneyhatting and parity clauses anymore because whatever money they can shell out to developers, the developers will make more money from making their games multiplat and/or using the PS4 as the lead platform.
 

The Llama

Member

I'm a firm believer that the people who buy the majority of games (outside of COD/Madden/FIFA/etc.) have all moved on to current gen already. That plus the XB1 version of TF receiving all the hype and the 360 version getting virtually none leads me to think that the 360 version sold pretty poorly. But we'll hopefully know soon!
 

Heshinsi

"playing" dumb? unpossible
Big retailers have too many of them already and only want one sku per box anyways. This has happen with other console price drops in the past.

But MS said they are not getting rid of the Kinect sku. It's not like Microsoft is planning to only have a kinect less console on the market, and they did say there's plans for a separate Kinect.
 
Doubtful. I'm guessing around 500k. I imagine the delay was pretty lethal - lots more people getting a chance to really try it out and talk about it.

Well, where would the delayed purchases go?

Other games?

PC/XB1 Titanfall?

But MS said they are not getting rid of the Kinect sku. It's not like Microsoft is planning to only have a kinect less console on the market, and they did say there's plans for a separate Kinect.

Yes, just like Nintendo when they said the Nintendo DS was the 'third tier' and they'd keep the GBA around.

The Kinect-bundle is dead in the water and will be clearanced out by the end of summer.
 

S¡mon

Banned
Well, where would the delayed purchases go?

Other games?

PC/XB1 Titanfall?
Small part probably PC, the rest nowhere (eg people didn't purchase any new game). I'd say Titanfall's reception was generally positive, but the 'buzz' quickly diminished after the launch on XB1.
 
Top Bottom