The market is gonna go up and down until there is some stability in the Chinese market. It's gonna fluctuate. Now it depends on how willing you are to take a risk and make some cash. But I'd say don't try to time the market. Play the long game. This shit works in unstable economic markets like Argentina or Greece.
Asia stock markets getting ravaged to open Monday
- Thread starter Vanillalite
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maquiladora
Member
Going to be interesting to see what happens when Shanghai opens.
toxicgonzo
Taxes?! Isn't this the line for Metallica?
It's also possible that he was leveraged with stock options...in which case he wouldn't need that much capital.
¯\_(ツ_/¯
I am super clueless about the stock market, and it's really not something I would do except I was given company stock when I joined. I've seen it drop 15+ percent in the last few months. It's time for me to bail, and possibly learn more and invest elsewhere.
Index funds. Invest in index funds.
Company stock is the least diversified thing you can invest in, while Index funds are the most. You'll still be subject to market volatility (like today woooo) but over the long term they are the way to go.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Looks like the short covering is kicking in like I suspected it would.
No, that was the other guy. I also bought Apple this morning but only bought 225 shares for about $21,500. I split my buys this morning with Tesla, which was also down and I deemed it a pretty safe buy.
Make no mistake though, if I had $400,000 I would have put that much on Apple. If you want to be more than a guy merely surviving in this world you have to know what you're doing and make the big moves.
¯\_(ツ
I am super clueless about the stock market, and it's really not something I would do except I was given company stock when I joined. I've seen it drop 15+ percent in the last few months. It's time for me to bail, and possibly learn more and invest elsewhere.
Your first lesson is to buy low and sell high, so pretty much not what you're planning on doing at the moment.
maquiladora
Member
dat VIX
Pagusas
Elden Member
¯\_(ツ
I am super clueless about the stock market, and it's really not something I would do except I was given company stock when I joined. I've seen it drop 15+ percent in the last few months. It's time for me to bail, and possibly learn more and invest elsewhere.
Stocks are not good for impatient people. Also make sure you understand your trade windows when dealing with your companies stocks. Their are very specific rules about when you can sell it and when you can not.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
dat VIX
VIX is so hot right now.
Vanillalite
Ask me about the GAF Notebook
Damn oil under $38.
Shiiieettt
Shiiieettt
Again, not to sound like a broken record, but balance of trade can make a lot of these situations look similar, and in many cases they are. They have to reverse, you cannot continue to import demand without negative ramifications to global trade partners. Need to shift savings back to households, otherwise you're going to inevitably fund bad investments domestically and abroad. Question is, when does the new current account champ, Germany, start to get twisted?
Interesting times indeed. I love it.
AstroNut325
Member
I really wish I was still doing trades. I need to load up my scottrade account once more.
Many new millionaires today.
Edit:
Is there a better broker than Scottrade?
Many new millionaires today.
Edit:
Is there a better broker than Scottrade?
How quickly are trades completed online? I remember many years ago I had a handful of investments but it always seemed like the transactions took a long time to complete (I 100% could be remembering wrong). When people bought this morning and then sold later, how long did this take?
uncelestial
Member
Y'all have 2 minutes to buy XIV today and profit on the VIX swing. Get on it.
Depends on the market. Europe is moving to a two day trading cycle. Though remember I can buy and sell today on a position I am getting in in two days time.
This is a pet peeve of mine, I wish news sites would quit posting photos of traders despairing on the NYSE floor on a down day as the lead image for their articles. First, they're usually just scratching their head like this guy, and secondly every day has winners and losers depending on if you were short or long, loaded new shares cheaply or panicked and sold. Pictures like this give the public the image that down days are something necessarily bad, like it's a national defeat of some kind.
It's instantaneous, so long as there's enough volume to find a buyer at the market price.
It's instantaneous, so long as there's enough volume to find a buyer at the market price.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
I think you'll find the media is terrible at dealing with anything financial.
I'm not informed enough to tell you how to put your money in, but Vanguard is a good place to go if you want to invest in an index fund. Very low admin costs, and it's not like you need a financial advisor to invest in an index fund.
maquiladora
Member
fixed
Melon Husk
Member
If 2011 is any indication, Nasdaq Composite will be back to 5k in January. edit - or we'll be back by Halloween.
That or humanity as a species cannot break the 5000 mark without collapsing every time
Gotta look at the big picture. Remember the causes of previous collapses and think if this is one of those times.
That or humanity as a species cannot break the 5000 mark without collapsing every time
Gotta look at the big picture. Remember the causes of previous collapses and think if this is one of those times.
TheLaughingStock
Member
What will new holders of yen do? US treasuries are attractive if you want to keep dollar assets safe and liquid vs. leaving it in a US bank. Yen stays in the Japanese financial system and their securities are attractive if you care about liquidity and credit risk. Japan's debt to GDP is 245% and they're a "global defensive play" when folks are in panic mode. That's really impressive.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-s-...-traders-race-into-safe-havens-121002330.html
Melon Husk
Member
I think the true gamble is whether we go down another 10% or this was it. That depends on so many things - Fed, foreign economies, Chinese currency - the whole system is chaotic by nature. I'll say that if we close green tomorrow and Friday that's probably good... If we close slightly down on Friday then it's probably the former.
Oil?! Yuck.
Oil?! Yuck.
That's so Joe Blow, with only his 401k and mutual funds that can't go short, thinks that all of Wall Street is feeling his pain.
Vanillalite
Ask me about the GAF Notebook
What is the exact time the Shanghai exchange opens? 9:30 Shang time?
maquiladora
Member
Opens in 3 hours 40 from now.
Depends on the market, the stock, and even by what you mean by 'completed'
Buying and selling highly liquid stocks on the NYSE is damn near instantaneous, lightly traded stocks on smaller markets may take a while.
I think what you are referring to is the time it takes for a transaction to 'settle', which is a completely different thing. Most people do their investing in was is called a 'cash' account, and there are SEC rules about about what you can and can't do with a stock before the trade has settled. You don't really want to get in the habit of pissing off the SEC by trading stocks before they've settled.
In a margin account, those rules don't exist apply, but buying stock on margin is for crazy people.
.I just realized I typed yen when I meant yuan. Woops!
Oil's the one thing everyone seems to agree isn't an opportunity right now. Weaker demand from China plus excess supply overall and w/ Iran set to produce again no matter the price is a recipe for weakness.
If you think long-term, I think oil is tempting. Like all commodities, oil is cyclical. It's only a matter of time until suppliers start dropping their output. And oil dependent states like Russia and Venezuela are fucked if oil stays cheap. This is mostly a move by Opec to fuck over the shale companies. Once that stage of the fight is over, supplies will lower and the price of oil will rise.
That's my basic investment thesis on oil. I purchased a 1% stake in Chevron and a 1% stake in Exxon today.
Bingo. I've definitely been looking at some oil companies as longterm investments. I've made some small plays in the past weeks, might be thinking of doing more now that prices have dropped even further.
The traders actually do this on purpose haha. Its a running joke the more panicked you looked, the better chance you get published. So they see the cameras, they look as worried as possible.
This is just faulse though. If you put that money in a bank you'd gaib interest. If you invested it elsewhere likewise you might gain.
Sure you can invest in oil but why right now? If everyone took your view the price would never fall, sometimes noise in the market is volatile nonsense otherwise its telling a story. You declare it cyclical but surely the last cycle ran for decades after the oil shock?
If you have other investments then sure but it strikes me as the opposite of what a long term investment should be. Then am someone who puts his head in his hands as people declare 'the time to buy' to be when something hits its second or third latest low in a month or two across the board.
What interest?
BeforeU
Oft hope is born when all is forlorn.
Man I was 11 fucking % down in the morning. But I have all ETFs, and I know in a long term its going to be up again. So not panicking. My dad on the other hand brought AAPL on margin, few days ago. So we had a hard decision to make, sell it off right now and take the hit or wait until market recovers (which might take weeks, and interest on that would be brutal). He ended up selling them.
I am actually going to put more money in.
I am actually going to put more money in.
I've already laid out my thesis. I'll just post some graphs to show the cyclical nature of oil.
mmazurkiewicz
Member
haha, institutions are already revising the fed interest increase from september to mid/late next year.
now we just need some chinese stimulus.
now we just need some chinese stimulus.
Your graph doesn't show oil as cyclical (can you tell me why beyond graphs it would be cyclical?). Its driven by the wider economy (demand) and shocks (supply).
Oil is a good way of investing in the wider economy safely (unless there is a supply shock which happens to oil very often) but its as cyclical as anything else. Hence not really worth the long hall but due to its shock driven nature; can fit the right portfolio.
I just don't get where your coming from. Commodities rise and fall with demand for them and are hit by supply related issues. If it was as cyclical as you claim the stock price would not offer a great opportunity as it would remain quite flat compared to prices.
Oil is a good way of investing in the wider economy safely (unless there is a supply shock which happens to oil very often) but its as cyclical as anything else. Hence not really worth the long hall but due to its shock driven nature; can fit the right portfolio.
I just don't get where your coming from. Commodities rise and fall with demand for them and are hit by supply related issues. If it was as cyclical as you claim the stock price would not offer a great opportunity as it would remain quite flat compared to prices.
I actually think they'll need to raise it. Volatility is not good long term and driving so many investors into a volatile market with historically low interest rates is silly.
I mean there were reasons we had interest rates to begin with. Until they rise to a more natural rate we'll see continues volatility which in turn undermines confidence. Interest provides confidence at least.
Equity markets are more or less shelter from inflation right now.
I'm of the opinion that the fed should rates. Part of the problem right now is that the markets are artificially inflated right now. Even today after straight terrible days the market in general is overvalued. The fed needs to raise rates to bring some reality to the markets.
A 3 day sellof means nothing in the global scheme of things.
My guess is that markets will start up tomorrow and then come back down later in the day.
A 3 day sellof means nothing in the global scheme of things.
My guess is that markets will start up tomorrow and then come back down later in the day.
I feel the people pushing against it are those with a lot to gain from inflated stock prices and a lot to lose from a correction. Emerging markets have never turned into the demand drivers theorised; it'll be fine and its time to get back to normal. We had ups and downs in the past without needing such low rates.
Well Trumps whole schtick is to diagnose Americas sickness and prescribe himself as the solution.
I think oil will go back up and won't dispute that it's cyclical, but I don't think it's bottomed yet so you're not getting the best deal now and would be better off somewhere else for the time being.. I think it ultimately bottoms out somewhere in the $20s before recovering.
D'ultimate
Member
This. Why would you buy it now for a long term play when you have no idea how much farther and longer it will go down? Then it reaches a bottom and languishes there for an extended time. Meanwhile you could have made better plays elsewhere.
Why don't you just be patient with that? I mean literally any other play would be more understandable. Okay, maybe not. But oil. Ughh!
I'm not backing up the truck or anything. I'm dipping my feet in. Also, I purchase stocks in thirds because none of us can time the market. The prices in oil companies seemed reasonable, so I bought a third in two of them. In a few months I'll reassess and if it's still reasonable, put in another third. Then a few months after that I may finish the position with the final third.
There are many benefits to buying stocks this way. I highly suggest it not just for this, but any purchase.
One benefit is, hey, if the stock falls after I buy the first 1/3rd, that just makes my next purchase at a better value.
It also smooths out trends and you are not so worried about trying to time things.
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