firehawk12
Subete no aware
Quebec is weird because, at least up until yesterday, people were defined by their sovereignist lines first and everything else second. I wonder if that'll change if the PQ is finally dead.
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Canada Poligaf - The Wrath of Harperland
- Thread starter DreamMachine
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Quebec is weird because, at least up until yesterday, people were defined by their sovereignist lines first and everything else second. I wonder if that'll change if the PQ is finally dead.
gutter_trash
Banned
the CAQ is trying hard to bust that skism by defining themselves as the Center-Right party (that contains natioanlits), yesterday they became the Suburbanite Party that surrounds the Island of Montreal without being able to break inside the city
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Yeah, it seems like we're starting to see a split. I just wonder if the Liberals winning the defacto nationalist vote is over now. Not that I think "NDPQ" will ever happen, but a party full of people whose only real unifying theme is nationalism is kind of doomed to fail because without the threat of a referendum, suddenly they actually need more policies than "we're not the PQ".
Like, I imagine if I lived in Quebec... I have no idea who I would vote for. Maybe if I was born in Quebec it would be totally different, but if I moved to Quebec now and lived there, I feel like I would be a QS supporter... except for the whole sovereignty thing. Which means there really isn't a party for a leftist-anglophone who doesn't want to vote Liberal.
That's not really a rebuttal to my assessment though. Yes I'm more left leaning and I'm jaded for sure about our democratic system. I agree that a true economical right wing doesn't exist in the province. That doesn't mean that the one in controls aren't the same corporations either and it doesn't show that the next government won't be divisive.
Previous PLQ government was divisive too. It was "la rue" vs "la majorité silencieuse" just like this time for PQ it was "intégristes et ROC" vs "la majorité silencieuse" to hide the damage her government did in the past 18 months. They have to find wedge issues at this point because the province is not going well and both PQ and PLQ aren't doing great. At the end of his 9 years of power, Jean Charest had added 60+ billions to the debt, had engineered a social disaster with the students movement that blew up and lead to strikes and riots and all while mocking people and acting arrogant in hope of sweeping the UPAC raids and his disastrous contribution to the debt. The inquiries won't stop tomorrow nor will the economic situation of the province change greatly either so Couillard will need to find something too.
Just like Marois, Couillard will claim to be able to balance budget at first. Then he'll come up with the excuse that the previous government left a hidden deficit that will be hard to overcome. He'll cut services and raise HQ electricity rates just like Marois did. He'll give billions to corporations that will either not invest that money here, go bankrupt or leave the province like Aveos.
He agreed with Marois project of giving 400 millions to build a huge cement factory when the most of them are only working at 60% of their capacity right now too.
He's going to continue wasting millions building infrastructure for the Plan Nord that the corporations exploiting the resources there don't want to pay for. They want to get the resources but not build for the roads and infrastructures to get there while maintaining the same tariffs that Marois put in place for mineral extractions.
He will set his pawn in the system just like Marois did with her friend Boisclair and co. He'll change the head of the SQ for someone that shares his view just Marois did too. Different actors, same movie.
I'm not really sure what really changes economically whether PQ or PLQ wins. We would have gotten the Enbridge pipeline either way, we would have started exploiting oil on Anticosti island anyway. We would have paid the 1-2 billions to clean up the environmental damage done by mining corporations damage anyway. We are and will still be indebted as shown by the previous PQ and Liberals reigns anyway. In the end, he'll come up with a wedge issue (référendum + a new one) to hide the damage like usual.
Both the PQ and Liberals plan were similar a lot according to all the economists that spend the last 30 days on different medias explaining them.
I guess my priorities are different than Ether_Snake and you. I'm more passionate about social justice and you two are more passionate about language/linguistic issues and that's great because people have different priorities.
Not really, it started to become different during the last 10-20 years or so if you've followed Quebec politics a lot. It's pretty much why the PQ was kicked from power and has still not gained it in a meaningful manner since the Lucien Bouchard era and why they will probably not even get it again. Bouchard initiated a turn to the right that slowly lead to a split inside the party.The main issue with the party is that they gather people from both end of the left-right spectrum around a project they can't/will never achieve. Once they realized this, the infighting begins.
This lead to different smaller fringe movements/parties that turned ultimately turn into QS and ON. As such the PQ base is split. If QS and ON wouldn't exist the PQ would probably have kept these voters.
An example was the PKP Arena that had to receive 200 millions in funding from the government. It almost lead to Marois's demise a year before the 2012 election since some well known members in the party thought it was indecent to give 200 millions for an arena to a guy who was a billionaire with many corporations.
If something kills the party in the near future it will probably be a combination of NPD/NDP Quebec and poor introspection and analysis of what went wrong during this campaign. The fact they want Lisée, Drainville or PKP as a successor seems to imply they haven't learned a thing yet.
gutter_trash
Banned
with Martine Desjardins and Leo Bureau-Blouin joinign the PQ after the ousting of Jean Charest leaves me to believe that the Red Square protests (with the backing of union workers) to have been a PQ engineered putch in 2012
now with Bureau-Blouin, Desjardins and Duscenes losing last night, we normal people get redemption from the fake Red Squares from 2012
now with Bureau-Blouin, Desjardins and Duscenes losing last night, we normal people get redemption from the fake Red Squares from 2012
Stump, but I am arguing against the idea that IRV would lead to substantially different outcomes even in Non Albertan cases. I'm not sure what you mean by ENP, not familiar with the acronym.
In your 45/55 example are you really saying that 5% of the voters wouldn't have put the con candidate as their 2nd choice leading to the same outcome? Someone who gets a majority in FPTP is obviously the same but almost all of the close to majority winners are as well.
In your 45/55 example are you really saying that 5% of the voters wouldn't have put the con candidate as their 2nd choice leading to the same outcome? Someone who gets a majority in FPTP is obviously the same but almost all of the close to majority winners are as well.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Effective number of parties, which is the metric used to measure the number of parties that are represented and basically the primary measure of Duverger's law.
matthewwhatever
Member
I was just talking about this same thing with my wife earlier today. She was talking to Quebecois coworkers today who were all complaining that the Quebec Liberals are too conservative, but I pointed out to her that 1) Quebec conservatives are still relatively liberal, and 2) as long as you're a federalist, it doesn't matter because they're the only option. The whole separatism thing really screws up the political spectrum, since even if theoretically the PQ, QS and CAQ all represent different ideologies, the fact they all support (or supported, until last night) breaking Canada apart would make it impossible to vote for them.
gutter_trash
Banned
Quebec Liberals as Conservatives? hahahaha what a joke.
They maintain social programs or boost them up even more.
The conservatives, that is the PQ being conservative ultra identity purity
They maintain social programs or boost them up even more.
The conservatives, that is the PQ being conservative ultra identity purity
That's about as believable as when Ether_Snake believed Marois took PKP in to get rid off him to me.
The strikes didn't appear out of nowhere and I doubt you can artificially create something on this scale. The first time it began was during Jean-Marc Fournier/Pierre Reid at the Minister of Education which was in 2005. Unions taking parts in demonstrations or movement wasn't a new thing either. They also always openly defied the liberal governments since they were traditionally siding with the Conseil du Patronat.
Both Charest and Marois tried to use it to their advantage and both got hurt badly by it but at different times. Charest wanted to create a divide with the people banging pots and pans in the streets and the rest of Quebecers and Marois tried to make a turn to the left to distance herself from Charest. Charest needed something to make people forget his past years in power and Marois needed something to go back up in polls. They both tried to use the conflict as a political instrument. It appeared to be a godsend to them. In the end it did more harm than good to them. At some point Charest even came up with a law to prevent people from taking parts in demos and was clamoring that demonstrations were a form violence and intimidation. The social climate was so bad that people were openly attacking each others on both side of the fence in everyday's life. It became students vs non students and youth vs the rest of citizens. A similar climate back again with the PQ charter of values.
What happened in the end is that the split wasn't very interesting to either party.
Marois failed to get a majority and won barely because many PQ voters didn't like her left turn and Charest lost because students voted in huge numbers against him and that people thought he poorly handled a crisis that lasted months while it could have been over after weeks. The corruption scandals sure didn't help either.
Marois recruited Blouin because he had notoriety and she wanted the students' votes. She even came up with the voting on campus project because of this whole mess.
The thing is that eventually the PQ realized the only way to win a majority was to get voters from CAQ and not from the left so they eventually slowly turned away to the right.
Martine Desjardins was shopping for a better job already at that time. She was a panelist on Martineau's show on LCN which was a virulent opponent to the student movement. She pretty much gave up on her convictions at that point anyway. Joining Marois was simply a way to get more power and fame since back then the polls were good for the PQ.
We now had two massive social traumas in 2 years. I wonder how much more we can take.
In both cases it could have been over easily. If Charest cooperated with the students leaders, Legault and Marois early on a solution could have been found but he wanted the conflict to last so he could make it a ballot issue. And so he did and made a campaign out of it. He came up with his anti-protest law to stop the strikes that even le Barreau du Québec disapproved.
Marois could have a simpler and less restrictive Charte des valeurs pass preventing only people in authorities from wearing religious symbols in public while doing their jobs by cooperating with QC and CAQ. Then more important issues could have been tackled in the campaign. Instead she chose to make a campaign around it. By dragging it on for months and bending the truth it turned into xenophobia. Le Barreau du Québec also disapproved the Charte des valeurs.
Seeing a pattern yet?
You Are Viewtiful
Member
This is the part that is BS. They betrayed an entire generation that had high hopes that they can use politics to accomplish a society in their vision (free education), but these two stood up for the PQ budget which made tuition more expensive. If they had any backbone or principles they should have crossed over to the QS then and there.
Ontario tends to not vote in the same party federally as they do provincially and vice versa. So while there is a connection between the two parties, I don't think Trudeau can "boost" the Ontario Liberals in a way that won't evaporate at the voting booths. Although he only made a few appearances, his participation in the Feb. byelections don't look like he helped the OLP much.
It's a 3-way race and the campaign is what will show the victor. Hudak has a terrible approval rating so I don't think he'll win by conventional means (e.g. vote splitting). Wynne vs Horwath is more interesting, usually in Lib vs. NDP races, the Liberal vote usually evaporates (London, Windsor, Niagara), but in Lib vs. PC races, it tends to hold on (Ottawa, Scarborough, Thornhill, Vaughan). All the NDP vs. PC races so far as got Hudak slapped silly (Kitchener, London, Niagara)
The Liberal strategy according to leaks (?) is use Hudak as a wedge to the benefit of Wynne and keep the NDP out of the headlines. I wonder how effective it will be.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Yeah, I just wonder if there are people who don't really fit into the current landscape who simply feel alienated. I really wonder if things will change, assuming that the issue is dead.
Oh, I don't think Trudeau has any real play here. If Layton was still alive, I think he could have probably helped shift some Toronto seats if nothing else, but it's all up in the air now. What's interesting is that we have a massive left/center/right fight coming in Toronto soon that essentially reflects what might happen in Ontario (well, except for the crack smoking part I guess).
The Liberals in Ontario probably suffer more from general fatigue. It's just that they benefit from not really having any real opposition. lol
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Also, this Sheila Fraiser stuff is amazing. I don't get how they keep trusting Pierre Poilievre since it is clear that he is a fucking moron, considering Harper loves to throw everyone under the bus. He must have pictures of Harper in a bathhouse or something.
I really hope that this landslide of shitty news for the Conservatives means that they get nailed in 2015. I still fear that the Liberals/NDP will somehow find a way to fall over themselves and let the Conservatives win though.
gutter_trash
Banned
Instead of governing like minority government to get consensus from opposition parties, the PQ acted like Stephen Harper by always being in ''campaign'' mode and trying to set up mines for the other parties to step on with identity wedge issue politics and trying to brand the Liberals not being Quebecois enough (this this sound like US Republicans?)
Marois sought power before sovereignty, we all knew that. She has been around for 35 years and had 3 leadership attempts since 1985. She is very well known for what she is really about. Power
Marois sought power before sovereignty, we all knew that. She has been around for 35 years and had 3 leadership attempts since 1985. She is very well known for what she is really about. Power
CBC cuts 657 jobs.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/cbc-t...pete-for-professional-sports-rights-1.2605504
I wonder what will remain of it in 5 years if Stevie gets re-elected. Shudder...
Edit: Seems like Jim Flaherty has died. RIP.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/cbc-t...pete-for-professional-sports-rights-1.2605504
I wonder what will remain of it in 5 years if Stevie gets re-elected. Shudder...
Edit: Seems like Jim Flaherty has died. RIP.
Yeah that's majorly out of left field Perdito:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/jim-flaherty-former-finance-minister-dead-at-64-1.2605728
Jim Flaherty dead. Didn't like the guy but respect and condolences to his family.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/jim-flaherty-former-finance-minister-dead-at-64-1.2605728
Jim Flaherty dead. Didn't like the guy but respect and condolences to his family.
gutter_trash
Banned
RIP Jim Flaherty
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Wow. RIP.
http://m.thestar.com/#!/news/redirect/534c45a4f96771c4f58386f2ecded742
This could very well end up being Harper's legacy. His closest and ardent supporters are either dead or have been kicked out of the party.
This could very well end up being Harper's legacy. His closest and ardent supporters are either dead or have been kicked out of the party.
He's already caused more than his fair share of damage, enough so that the general populous doesn't give a damn any longer.
edit: Not that I wouldn't mind a free fall from power for he and his government.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
If he's going to bail, he should probably do it soon. Selecting a new leader and giving them some time to actually lead the party would help. Well, unless he either doesn't give a fuck and is willing to stay on board or just wants to burn everything down before he leaves.
Simon Belmont
Banned
I don't know what it would take for Harper to resign, but I have to think the prospect of losing to a Trudeau would be a strong contender.
He seems the type to simply up and leave and let the party destroy itself in the wake.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
So as much as he hates Mulroney, he wants to follow in his footsteps.
For different reasons, yes.
matthewwhatever
Member
I think that's the only thing keeping him around at this point -- the thought that, somehow, he's going to come back and avenge all those times PET beat the Cons. I don't see it happening right now, but there's still a year to go. Who knows how nasty their ads might get?
Simon Belmont
Banned
It doesn't seem like nasty ads are working this time. Trudeau has had a lead for a year at this point, and there's been no shortage of nasty ads. I think the Harper brand might finally be tarnished enough to be an anchor on the party.
And now he has Kenney vying for his job.
Simon Belmont
Banned
I can't imagine he can perform another Lazarus act and squeaks out another one, although I feel like Harper's political obituary has been written a hundred times before
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Anyone taking the job now would be the Kim Campbell/Paul Martin of the new decade. If Harper set up a move last year, then maybe. But unless the new guy poops money and decides to both increase healthcare and cut taxes to 0%, then at best they're looking at a minority government.
Kenney would likely run on something similar to one of those platforms
Simon Belmont
Banned
It'll be interesting to see what happens to the Conservative party post-Harper. It would be nice to see the old PC/Reform divide reignited.
It would be very nice.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Well, promises are one thing. First he'd have to catch up with Trudeau and even Mulcair in terms of being recognizable before even thinking about what lies he can tell the public.
Well, a lot of the blue Tories are certainly salty about split income, the lack of movement on abortion, and various other tried and true Albertan issues that have been abandoned.
gutter_trash
Banned
after the doom of the Conservatives in 2015, they will revert back to the Stockwell Day era of picking dump leaders (pretty much what the Liberals did with Dion and Ignatieff)
After losing again in 2019... the Conservatives will return to PC Progressive Conserviatve style with none other.......... Jean Charest and win 2023
After losing again in 2019... the Conservatives will return to PC Progressive Conserviatve style with none other.......... Jean Charest and win 2023
firehawk12
Subete no aware
I'm still wondering if the NDP will explode and allow the Liberals to win any kind of government. I'm guessing that most Quebecers are really ambivalent on them now, so maybe the Liberals can ride on Ontario and Quebec as they usually do.
It'd be curious to see what happens in Toronto now too, given Chow's move back to local politics and the memory of Jack fading for a lot of people.
I guess the best case scenario is that the NDP goes back to being a third party no one cares about and the vote splitting on the left ends. The less said about the Green party, the better.
It'd be curious to see what happens in Toronto now too, given Chow's move back to local politics and the memory of Jack fading for a lot of people.
I guess the best case scenario is that the NDP goes back to being a third party no one cares about and the vote splitting on the left ends. The less said about the Green party, the better.
Simon Belmont
Banned
I'm still wondering if the NDP will explode and allow the Liberals to win any kind of government. I'm guessing that most Quebecers are really ambivalent on them now, so maybe the Liberals can ride on Ontario and Quebec as they usually do.
It'd be curious to see what happens in Toronto now too, given Chow's move back to local politics and the memory of Jack fading for a lot of people.
I guess the best case scenario is that the NDP goes back to being a third party no one cares about and the vote splitting on the left ends. The less said about the Green party, the better.
The NDP doesn't have to explode, if you look at the polls right now they're leagues behind the Libs already. I don't think the NDP can pull off another miracle without Layton, especially not with a strong leader behind the Libs.
I mean, it just seems that whatever Mulcair does he just can't get people's attention.
gutter_trash
Banned
the NDP in 2011 was all about Jack.
You got Right Wingers in Quebec City who dropped the Conservatives and voted for the NDP not because of the party but because of Jack Layton. These Radio X Qc City Right Wingers are not your typical NDP clientel; they just liked Jack.
Mulcair is no Jack Layton; expect a sizeable drop of support.
NDP followers must stop convincing themselves that these new 2011 votes were actually for their party platform.. far from it. These votes were for Jack the man, that is all
You got Right Wingers in Quebec City who dropped the Conservatives and voted for the NDP not because of the party but because of Jack Layton. These Radio X Qc City Right Wingers are not your typical NDP clientel; they just liked Jack.
Mulcair is no Jack Layton; expect a sizeable drop of support.
NDP followers must stop convincing themselves that these new 2011 votes were actually for their party platform.. far from it. These votes were for Jack the man, that is all
Well there's still a lot of time and my dream scenario of a Lib/NDP minority government is still one of the likely outcomes at this point. One interesting thing that might happen with Mulcair at the head is that the NDP might manage to permanently add a large number of federalist left leaning Quebecers to their existing base of unions and big city lefties. That would be pretty awesome transformation on a number of levels. It'd certainly make Canadian politics a lot saner.
gutter_trash
Banned
Big city lefties are not that many and they don't turn out to vote.
Old people vote, home owners vote, ethnic communities vote.
Young people don't vote, students don't vote, wazzo activists don't vote
Old people vote, home owners vote, ethnic communities vote.
Young people don't vote, students don't vote, wazzo activists don't vote
As long as they vote enough to get a minority left leaning government going I'm good. Plus with a sane voting system the NDP would always get around 60 seats so enough people are voting for the left option just not in the absurd concentrated way demanded by systems like FPTP and AV.
gutter_trash
Banned
I rather have a stable Liberal majority and keep the peace for 4 years.
Minority governments are not good for Canada; they result in perpetual campaign mode and short term candy.
I know that Lester Pearson's minority government was the best government we ever had but that is 2 generations ago. Today we live in a climate of toxic partisanship, better off getting a Centrist Liberal majority and keep the peace and stability for 4 years.
Minority governments are not good for Canada; they result in perpetual campaign mode and short term candy.
I know that Lester Pearson's minority government was the best government we ever had but that is 2 generations ago. Today we live in a climate of toxic partisanship, better off getting a Centrist Liberal majority and keep the peace and stability for 4 years.
Simon Belmont
Banned
There were also a huge number of traditional Lib voters who just stayed home. It's been hard to get behind any of the tickets they've had since Martin.
After the last couple of election cycles I think the time is right for a candidate to just charm the pants off the electorate. The Cons will never go for it, but Trudeau has a good chance of snatching enough of the left for a Lib majority.
Yep. It was bad for Canada, and it's been bad for Ontario.
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