Support NeoGAF

[King Dazzar]

I'd imagine digital share has only increased since Rift Apart. So this has to be a pretty limiting part of the full picture.

 

[SJRB]

That's reasonable.

But where were you two days ago when people were implying Astro Bot was a huge commercial success and the way forward for PlayStation to grow?

 

[mckmas8808]

The budget was said to be around $60 million with a three-year development time. Given the huge amount of praise this game is getting and the amount of stores are selling out of them, I can see this game hitting close to 4 million by year's end, enough for Team Asobi to break even and make a profit.

If it sells 4 million by years end, it would have made over $200 million. This game has easily cost less than $50 million. The break even point is probably around 750,000 units.

Chart position doesn't give a great picture of overall performance. It changes daily and we don't know any actual numbers.

It's looking like this game will sell a little bit less than Ratchet and Clank, still be a success for Team Asobi, but it will also make the delusional people who thought this was the way forward for Sony PlayStation look pretty darn foolish.

Do you realize that Rachet and Clank sold over 4 million copies in 18 months?

 

[Kacho]

Men_in_Boxes waging a one-man war in here

 

[ToadMan]

Exactly.

You can see it in this very thread. It's not enough to have 98% positive Astro Bot sentiment here. They must find the 2% detractors and remove them.

They seek a purity in the population, as if that's healthy.

You're not criticising astrobot as a game...

You're evangelising a genre and shitting on games not in that genre.

We are all gamers - why are you so insecure that you need to (inaccurately) try to shit on a genre you don't prefer?

Edit : and by genre here I mean gaas Vs single player. If you only like gaas that's awesome, enjoy. But why try and misinform people about a non-gaas game. It's... weird.

 

[XXL]

That's reasonable.

But where were you two days ago when people were implying Astro Bot was a huge commercial success and the way forward for PlayStation to grow?

The game came out like 3 days ago.

Wtf are you even talking about?

Are you mad that people were expressing that they wanted it to be successful and were making predictions?

If so....get some fucking help.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

That's reasonable.

But where were you two days ago when people were implying Astro Bot was a huge commercial success and the way forward for PlayStation to grow?

I immediately pushed back on the idea that it was "the way forward"

Here was my response to Jason's Schrierer's commentary in that thread

People are making a TON of assumptions.

Wukong and Helldiver 2 are probably the two best-selling games of the year. Very different models.

Astro Bot while critically acclaimed is still struggling to dislodge CF25, Madden, CoD, and Wukong for top-selling charts in various regions. Not to mention Warhammer and Star Wars Outlaws.

The ability to replicate what they've done with Astro Bot is also VERY difficult.

I do think games can start getting shorter again. 40-50 hour games can be a slog.

I got demoted to junior member status for trying to get people to chill out a bit on poor narratives, and here you are doing the exact opposite with no repercussions.

 

[King Dazzar]

I'm just thinking, even if digital sales are now a far greater part. There's also a lot more PS5 consoles in peoples hands today. Time will tell I guess.

 

[GigaBowser]

 

[Orbital2060]

The numbers, Cristopher. Just give us the numbers, and we will figure out what the situation is.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

I mean, to be fair Astro is probably going to win goty and the sales of the most recent goty winners has been solid.

The only thing in competition at the moment is Rebirth and without spoilers, there is one region later on that takes it out of the competition.

Perhaps Nintendo can pull off a minor miracle with its Links Awakening remake asset flip(and they very well could) but I'm not seeing a lot of goty competition for astro later in the year, so I think it will win.

Elden Ring can't win because it's dlc. Nintendo could win, but Astrobot probably will.

Elden Ring sales surge attributed to The Game Awards win

Elden Ring received a surge in sales at the end of 2022, which has been attributed to its success at The Game Awards. F…

www.eurogamer.net

Has there ever been a goty winner with bad sales, since goty became Geoff?

I have tempered expectations on its short to mid term sales potential, but what you're doing is entirely out of pocket.

I think this game will sell between 5-7 million units, unless it hits some level of the zeitgeist that compels people who normally wouldn't buy platformers to buy this OR it compels parents to buy for their kids in numbers that are not normal.

5-7 million would be an absolute success.

10 million sounds pretty far-fetched given the current make up of the PlayStation userbase. It'll definitely have long legs though, especially if it wins GOTY and drops in price to say 40 USD. This is likely to be a game people buy for years. And when it has eventually dropped to say 20 USD, it very well may have hit those far-fetched numbers.

For Astro Bot to have REAL crazy levels of success, the PS5 has to come down drastically in price AND it would need some transmedia push where Astro Bot reaches Minions level popularity. I'd be stunned if there are no talks at PlayStation Productions and Sony Pictures Animation about a movie.

We're talking past each other here.

I don't think Astro Bot is going to be a failure. Team Asobi isn't in any danger of shutting down. Hermen Hulst even said something in an interview recently about the studio potentially growing to around 100 employees. They're obviously happy with the game.

What I'm trying to illustrate here is that the talk of Astro Bot being some kind of sea change in how PlayStation does business was always ludicrous. The Jason Schreier tweet about "Is this the way forward for PlayStation" inspired a lot of delusional takes that didn't receive near the scrutiny this thread has.

Wukongs success might get companies like PlayStation to allocate more funds to certain game types and studios. Astro Bot isn't, at least not on any real scale.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

FFS, he’s comparing two family type games, both PS exclusives. Not everything has to be a conspiracy

Was he supposed to compare it to sales of GOW Ragnarok?

No, but if he did, you would be defending it.

He's making an apples and oranges comparison.

Again, why not wait for digital to compare total sales to total sales?

The reality is that sales charts are growing more and more useless as physical sales diminish and even digital sales are suspect if the data isn't coming from publishers or platform holders.

 

[Markio128]

That's reasonable.

But where were you two days ago when people were implying Astro Bot was a huge commercial success and the way forward for PlayStation to grow?

My comment on sales is that I thought it would sell well over the holiday period. And this news hasn’t changed my expectations at all.

 

[thicc_girls_are_teh_best]

Looks at who made the thread...

Men_in_Boxes

Ah yes, the lad who is incredibly obsessed with GAAS to the point of pure delusion.

Also somehow takes physical sales of one game from a couple days of tracking as equal to a month of tracking physical & digital in the global market to push their narrative in the OP. Gotta love it

I would comb through that narrative, or what feels like "reporting consolidation" in the market today (we have hundreds of global markets for game sales, but only regularly hear about two of them from a whopping two sources?), but I got a PS5 Pro technical presentation to watch so

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

This is ridiculous. No one is seeking purity.

You editorialized a tweet, gave incorrect information, took information from said tweet and extrapolated that the game is a failure with a minimal amount of data.

You know what's unhealthy? Not admitting you made a mistake, blaming others instead and then proceeding to play the victim.

Already admitted the mistake multiple times. Thread title has been changed. Balance has been restored less than an hour after I posted the thread.

Unlike some, I actually don't want to delude myself about where the industry is actually headed. I actually prefer accuracy and clarity.

 

[ArtHands]

I'd imagine the PS5 install base there is bigger now, compared to years ago when Ratchet & Clank Rift Apart was first released. So going by raw numbers there should be a bigger pool of PS5 players regardless of what format they buy.

 

[Tiago Rodrigues]

It looks like Jason Schreiers "Is this the model going forward?" tweet sounds pretty darn stupid right now. Always thought the parade everyone was trying to give Astrobot before sales numbers was a really bad look.

Can you list any examples of a games physical sales and digital sales doing wildly differently? I feel like it's pretty safe to say we can use physical sales as a kind of borometer for overall sales.

It is a bad look because the conversation was about strategy/investment, not quality. People desperately wanted their 94 metascore darling to be a commercial hit. So much so that people were estimating projections of 10+ million copies sold.

If you want to obsess over GAAS failure, fine, but you should also understand the shortcomings of the other models as well. People must go back to rational thought and logic, and away from payment model fantaticism zombies.

Chart position doesn't give a great picture of overall performance. It changes daily and we don't know any actual numbers.

It's looking like this game will sell a little bit less than Ratchet and Clank, still be a success for Team Asobi, but it will also make the delusional people who thought this was the way forward for Sony PlayStation look pretty darn foolish.

We're talking past each other here.

I don't think Astro Bot is going to be a failure. Team Asobi isn't in any danger of shutting down. Hermen Hulst even said something in an interview recently about the studio potentially growing to around 100 employees. They're obviously happy with the game.

What I'm trying to illustrate here is that the talk of Astro Bot being some kind of sea change in how PlayStation does business was always ludicrous. The Jason Schreier tweet about "Is this the way forward for PlayStation" inspired a lot of delusional takes that didn't receive near the scrutiny this thread has.

Wukongs success might get companies like PlayStation to allocate more funds to certain game types and studios. Astro Bot isn't, at least not on any real scale.

It's painfully obvious you created this topic with bad intentions but holy shit...

Imagine using physical sales from 3 days of a game from a single country and apply them to the entire market and to the entire world.

This game will have legs like Ratchet never had. The game actually started to climb the digital stores AFTER release and during the weekend unlike Ratchet that was a frontloaded mess.

And we have no idea how much the game is selling WW with digital included. Selling 10M is not impossible in any way.

But keep up doing the "good" fight alone my dude.

 

[daclynk]

 

[Mibu no ookami]

I'd imagine the PS5 install base there is bigger now, compared to years ago when Ratchet & Clank Rift Apart was first released. So going by raw numbers there should be a bigger pool of PS5 players regardless of what format they buy.

There's also a ton more games out at the moment, whereas that wasn't really the case when Rift Apart came out.

Many people have a massive back log of games at this point in the generation.

I just don't know why people can't wait for more data to come out before coming to conclusions, particularly negative ones.

 

[drganon]

I actually prefer accuracy and clarity.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

We are all gamers - why are you so insecure that you need to (inaccurately) try to shit on a genre you don't prefer?

As if I'm not a single piece of sand on an anti GAAS beach here.

 

[Guardian Monkey]

Compared to RC, It’s a relatively new IP. I’m going to say it now. This will sell more than RC:RA lifetime.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Men_in_Boxes waging a one-man war in here

 

[Ridicululzz]

I think this is the type of game that will have great legs. I don't expect it to have huge numbers right away, but when it's all said and done it'll have great lifetime numbers.

 

[XXL]

I actually prefer accuracy and clarity.

Unlike some, I actually don't want to delude myself about where the industry is actually headed.

That's great.... but your basically outing yourself that you had an agenda editorializing this tweet and you literally did delude yourself which is why so much had to be corrected. You just did it in the opposite direction of the people you think are deluded. Don't fool yourself...

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

More like

 

[Tiago Rodrigues]

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

That's great.... but your basically outing yourself that you had an agenda editorializing this tweet and you literally did delude yourself which is why so much had to be corrected. You just did it in the opposite direction of the people you think are deluded. Don't fool yourself...

No, I legitimately read it as "1/3rd of Ratchet"...which would mean it sold far short of most peoples expectations.

We're probably all deluded to a certain extent. The difference is I welcome any and everyone to call my delusions out because I'm not fond of them.

Also, this is a massage board built for "editorializing" our opinions.

 

[StueyDuck]

I mean all things considered...

Astrobot is not as much as a recognizable ip as ratchet.

Ratchet itself isn't the biggest ip to begin with.

I feel like some people live outside of reality if they thought astrobot was gonna outsell recognized franchises within Sony. Same as the people being shocked that an assassin's creed is going to sell lots.

 

[tanners]

I just don't get the idea of 'we want teach X company a lesson by purchase Y game. They said they will buy palworld to teach Game Freak,buy AB to teach Sony a lesson, and buy Setallar Blade to teach DEI...

 

[vaibhavpisal]

Men_in_Boxes waging a one-man war in here

His victory here at Helldivers 2 launch was a sight to behold.

Sadly, after that, Concord happened.

 

[Mownoc]

Mat Piscatella vs Chris Dring Royal Rumble. One night only.

 

[dorkimoe]

surprising to me. this is the game everyone should play

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

More like

 

[Cakeboxer]

Interesting, because in 2021 there were also way less consoles sold. My bet is that the reason is marketing.
I haven't seen any marketing for Astro Bots while i've seen some for Ratchet. Hope it'll sell >5 million, but i'm 100% sure it will outsell Ratchet easily longterm.

 

[XXL]

Also, this is a massage board built for "editorializing" our opinions.

To some extent, but there is definitely context.

People shouldn't be editorializing information or press releases ever. Opinion threads, polls, etc..sure....but not news or information.

 

[Interfectum]

We're talking past each other here.

I don't think Astro Bot is going to be a failure. Team Asobi isn't in any danger of shutting down. Hermen Hulst even said something in an interview recently about the studio potentially growing to around 100 employees. They're obviously happy with the game.

What I'm trying to illustrate here is that the talk of Astro Bot being some kind of sea change in how PlayStation does business was always ludicrous. The Jason Schreier tweet about "Is this the way forward for PlayStation" inspired a lot of delusional takes that didn't receive near the scrutiny this thread has.

Wukongs success might get companies like PlayStation to allocate more funds to certain game types and studios. Astro Bot isn't, at least not on any real scale.

Astrobot is a way forward. It's the way single player games should be made... small team, 2-3 years, high quality. Clearly there will be resources dedicated to landing the next Fortnite or Minecraft but for long term content output Astrobot is definitely a template that should be utilized more. Not sure why anyone would say otherwise. Nintendo has already proven this works time and time again.

 

[SmokedMeat]

Another developer to add to the pile

 

[Kupfer]

I bought Ratchet & Clank because I wanted to see high-quality console ray tracing in action.
I never played through the whole game.
Astro Bot doesn’t have any features that I find compelling enough to justify spending money on it.

 

[mckmas8808]

Thank you MAT!

 

[Ozriel]

No, but if he did, you would be defending it.

No. Why would I be defending it? That’s more your thing.

It’s the only logical choice for a comparison.

He's making an apples and oranges comparison.

Again, why not wait for digital to compare total sales to total sales?

He clearly put a disclaimer that it’s physical only, and compared to physical sales of Rift Apart.

 

[Dr. Samuel Hayden]

Fantastic, now Hermen has the excuse he desperately wanted to kill the IP and shut down Asobi.

Great job, gamers.

 

[DeepEnigma]

Chris Dring thread?

Chris Dring thread.

 

[TheGodfather07]

I think its pretty much guaranteed to sell more than ratchet and clank in total. I don't know about the 10m milestone but it will hit 5m.

 

[Woopah]

It's currently #4 on the PlayStation Store in the UK, behind only Warhammer, NBA 2K25, and Fortnite (which is free to play). It's consistently increased its position every day.

Ratchet and Clank Rift Apart had an almost year long promotion campaign for it, tied in large part to the PS5's ad campaign, while Astro Bot was announced just 4 months ago.

Once again, Chris Dring is making some peculiar comparisons that are entirely out of pocket.

I see the logic in comparing one family-friendly Sony game to another.

It's also helpful, as now we know Astrobot did around 18,000 physical. He'll probably give an update once digital comes in at the end of the month.

In FY2021, physical for sony was 140,117 million yen and digital was 542,484 million yen

In FY23, physical was 193,439 and digital 660, 932 million yen.

Are those taken from Sony's fiscal reports? If so they include third party revenue for digital but not for physical.

 

[gow3isben]

Astro strikes me as a game people tend to buy digital especially as the previous one was digital only

 

[Mibu no ookami]

No. Why would I be defending it? That’s more your thing.

It’s the only logical choice for a comparison.


He clearly put a disclaimer that it’s physical only, and compared to physical sales of Rift Apart.

A disclaimer when the comparison is poor is not sufficient enough to prevent the comparison from being poor.

 

[Dafegamer]

A third lower than R&C, an established IP with fanfare for more than two decades ago and had a year long marketing campaign, is great guys. Astrobot also had nowhere near the budget of R&C.

 

[PatientGamer]

Physical sales only, from 1 region after 3 days. Nothing to see here, this will outsell Ratchet's lifetime sales by several multiples. Mark my words.

 

[Magic Carpet]

UK thinks this is the physical version of the free pack in game. My copium Head canon.