Circana March 2025: #1 AC Shadows #2 MLB The Show #4 WWE 2K #5 Split Fiction #8 Bleach ; PS5 #1 Units + Rev, XBS #2 Units + Rev
- Thread starter Thick Thighs Save Lives
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It out performed everything this year so far besides Monster Hunter Wilds
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Radical_3d
Member
We knew that since at least the Final Fantasy VIII sales. Can't remember now a 16 bit era game that sold well despite being obviously a fad.
calico
Member
Yes, with 'everything' in this case being a group of games you would expect AC to outperform very comfortably. It had one remotely comparable rival and got beat by it.
Zacfoldor
Member
uBIsOfT sUcKS!
tTHANOSs
Member
The ones that do care probably moved to PlayStation anyway
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
MLB The Show has always been a monster though.
Topher
Identifies as young
And not on game pass this year.
adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
Mibu no ookami
Banned
Just like I would expect it to beat MLB The Show, I would expect Monster Hunter to beat it.
AC releases every two years, Monster Hunter releases like every 3-4 years.
calico
Member
I think it was 13th or 14th in the US Top 20 the last couple of years. In Valhalla's release year (2020), Valhalla was apparently 5th (revised to 6th) and The Show was 18th (revised to not in the top 20). Covid year though so maybe that impacted irl baseball.
calico
Member
MH World and AC Odyssey were 9th and 10th respectively in the 2018 US Top 20. I think it was reasonable to assume Wilds would beat Shadows worldwide, but I don't think it was a given in the US.
My expectation is that there is currently probably quite a gap between 1st and 3rd this year. If Shadows is $1 below 1st then it's probably doing fine; if it's $1 above 3rd then it probably isn't.
Mibu no ookami
Banned
MH World didn't launch day 1 on PC... Odyssey was also on Switch...
calico
Member
And World had like 8 extra months worth of sales compared to Odyssey. We can't expect the conditions to be perfectly identical.
I haven't seen any indication that MH is historically an incomparably bigger seller in the US than AC is.
Mibu no ookami
Banned
That extra time doesn't really matter much. A game is going to sell the most in its first couple of months on the market.
The fact that MH World was available on fewer platforms is noteworthy relative to AC.
All of which to say, the idea that MH was going to sell less than AC Shadows was never realistic, especially with MHWilds launching on PC day 1 and AC Shadows NOT being on Switch.
Black_Stride
do not tempt fate do not contrain Wonder Woman's thighs do not do not
Not even gonna bother tagging all da haters in this one.
Cuz the prerelease threads were wild as fuck.
We had history PHDs coming out the woodwork, hell we had vehement Assassins Creed fans who seemingly forgot AC is a work of fiction telling us NO AC is all about historical accuracy.
Misss meee wwitttthhh that shit!
yazenov
Member
yazenov , I am genuinely curious why you think Major League Baseball not being on Circana's Digital Panel has anything to do with how The Show sells on Xbox.
What's the link there?
Xbox Game Pass Releases Can Reportedly Expect To Lose 80 Percent Of Premium Sales
"Anecdotally, games that are in Game Pass can expect to lose around 80 percent of [their] expected premium sales on Xbox".
www.thegamer.com
That's from Chris BTW, I'm sure you know him and he needs no introduction.
Furthermore, we've seen the affect of COD sales on Xbox when the game came out day on on Gamepass:
UK Physical + Digital Sales: Call Of Duty Black Ops 6 Sales fall by -67% on Xbox, -18% on PC and rise +30% on PS5 compared to MW3.
If one of the biggest game franchises COD unit sales took a huge hit on Xbox due to releasing on Gamepass day one , what affect do you think it will be on smaller titles such as MLB the show? And double wammy for the series being associated on Playstation. Like I said, we've seen 80% splits for other multiplatfrom games, and I'd expect much worse for this game. 90% in PS favor.
Sure this year MLB the show 2025 is not on Gamepass day one, but the previous 2 or 3 entries were. Same affect.
Ok what's my point and why hide numbers? Most probably at the request of MS or the publisher choose not disclose it due to embarrassing numbers, or the lack of it. Its speculations as I do not have any evidence of this just like we were all speculation previously that Gamepass affects game sales and were labeled conspiracy theory nuts or warriors.
When you have numbers to show, you pump your chest. When you are ashamed, you keep your mouth shut. Just like MS shouting from the rooftops with their Xbox 360 hardware sales. And now they are dead silent on Xbox one and Xbox series sales numbers. Its not really difficult to understand.
And also I find it amusing that you are making a mountain out of a mole hill for this insignificant detail. But my point still stands, the software sales for MLB the show on Xbox are nothing to brag about. I'd like to move on from this subject as it's taking too much of an effort on my part for such an insignificant thing.
adamsapple
it warms my heart that you found my posts amusing 
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adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
You're welcome. Among other things, it's funny to see folks applying so many selective caveats to Shadows's success that have never before been applied to any other game.
No one asks what CoD or GTA was up against in their respective months when they top the charts. But Shadows? Nah motherfuckers we need percentages to the decimal.
What's the next big game that should (easily) dethrone AC Shadows (in US)? Doom Dark Ages?
Jaybe
Member
Not sure about easily, but Oblivion Remastered may have a chance. Its Steam CCU peak is 3x higher than Shadows already, and the weekend is still to come. Of course, Elder Scrolls franchise skews more to PC and Assassins Creed to consoles, and Shadows has a headstart but we will see when April data comes in.
Nah, not a chance. It's $50, and AC is $70. Circana tracks dollar sales. I don't think Oblivion has more than a slight chance to enter the top 10 in the Year to date chart. I don't think it makes #8.
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calico
Member
Presumably because no one would be silly enough to rely on that as the 'proof' of their success. Something tells me they won't be shy about announcing how GTA6 is selling.
adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
Right, and based on this topic we know that Shadows did pretty well for itself and has instantly become the second best selling game of the year just behind MH Wilds, a game which has sold over 10m already.
It's not doing bad by any metric. The constant questioning is just bizarre at this point.
calico
Member
Only if you take the view that outperforming the likes of MLB The Show and KCD is proof that Shadows has done well. I don't.
I will assume by 'just behind' you mean in the 'only behind' sense.
What does this tell us about how well Shadows sold?
The Steam metrics were terrible and I don't think getting outperformed by The Show on Playstation is a great sign either.
adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
Ok, I do.
They're both well received games and further down the post you invoke MLB again yourself, so it's odd that you're discrediting it here.
Yes, it's the second best selling game of the year so far.
That it's selling good enough that it's only second to a game that has sold double digit million units.
Ok. The game was sold on multiple other storefronts as well, including their own on PC that competes with Steam.
EDMIX
Writes a lot, says very little
Why would it outselling some sports game prove something and even more strangely why would it doing good on steam matter when the entire series doesn't do good on there?
Neither does Call Of Duty, neither does Battlefield, GTA's don't even launch on Steam
So...I think some of you may need to get over it... AC gamers are not buying games based on history lessons and what ever some of you hoped would happen clearly isn't happening. I mean.... we are on a thread where it sits at Number 1...it has been number 1 for several weeks around many countries and I don't see anything supporting that anyone really cared about that controversy other then a really, really small minority as to why the game is moving millions of units, before the holiday sales, before a Switch 2 version, before their normal discounts...
Neither does Call Of Duty, neither does Battlefield, GTA's don't even launch on Steam
So...I think some of you may need to get over it... AC gamers are not buying games based on history lessons and what ever some of you hoped would happen clearly isn't happening. I mean.... we are on a thread where it sits at Number 1...it has been number 1 for several weeks around many countries and I don't see anything supporting that anyone really cared about that controversy other then a really, really small minority as to why the game is moving millions of units, before the holiday sales, before a Switch 2 version, before their normal discounts...
Shadowplay1979
Member
usually during the last year of game production, lot of the team peel off and begin working on other titles, few people remain in the late stages when it moves into QA...so heres a roughbreakdown i did with chatgpt using cross checking with the credits
A rough estimate of the development cost for Assassin's Creed Shadows, based on staff roles and average salaries over the 4-year cycle, comes out to:
≈ $2.39 billion USD
This estimate assumes:
of course this doesnt take into account things like..international salaries or the malaysian guys they pay ten bucks an hour to shit out props
A rough estimate of the development cost for Assassin's Creed Shadows, based on staff roles and average salaries over the 4-year cycle, comes out to:
≈ $2.39 billion USD
Estimated Cost by Role (over 4 years):
- Programmers: ~$543 million
- Designers: ~$368 million
- Artists: ~$549 million
- Technical Artists: ~$129 million
- Producers/Managers: ~$310 million
- QA/Testers: ~$155 million
- Writers/Localization: ~$103 million
- Audio: ~$70 million
- Other roles (admin, biz dev, support): ~$163 million
This estimate assumes:
- Salaries were steady over time
- Most credited roles were involved full-time during the 4 years
- It doesn't include marketing, licensing, external contractors, or post-launch support
of course this doesnt take into account things like..international salaries or the malaysian guys they pay ten bucks an hour to shit out props
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We do know launch sales are lower than 3, given the higher price it puts the upper limit around 2.3 million units,
The gulf between valahalla/3 os substantially, only concrete info i can find is black flag was down 65% from 3 then that origins was the best performance since black flag, odyssey was down from origins
So either origins or the 3 ac 2 (2, brotherhood revelations) games , seems to be the next best opening in the series at around 1.3 million, again given the higher price it could be as low as 1.1 million
So pretty big range there 2.3 million to 1.1 million,
Woopah
Member
I believe we are in 100% agreement that MLB's sales probably aren't strong on Xbox.Xbox Game Pass Releases Can Reportedly Expect To Lose 80 Percent Of Premium Sales
"Anecdotally, games that are in Game Pass can expect to lose around 80 percent of [their] expected premium sales on Xbox".
That's from Chris BTW, I'm sure you know him and he needs no introduction.
Furthermore, we've seen the affect of COD sales on Xbox when the game came out day on on Gamepass:
UK Physical + Digital Sales: Call Of Duty Black Ops 6 Sales fall by -67% on Xbox, -18% on PC and rise +30% on PS5 compared to MW3.
If one of the biggest game franchises COD unit sales took a huge hit on Xbox due to releasing on Gamepass day one , what affect do you think it will be on smaller titles such as MLB the show? And double wammy for the series being associated on Playstation. Like I said, we've seen 80% splits for other multiplatfrom games, and I'd expect much worse for this game. 90% in PS favor.
Sure this year MLB the show 2025 is not on Gamepass day one, but the previous 2 or 3 entries were. Same affect.
Ok what's my point and why hide numbers? Most probably at the request of MS or the publisher choose not disclose it due to embarrassing numbers, or the lack of it. Its speculations as I do not have any evidence of this just like we were all speculation previously that Gamepass affects game sales and were labeled conspiracy theory nuts or warriors.
When you have numbers to show, you pump your chest. When you are ashamed, you keep your mouth shut. Just like MS shouting from the rooftops with their Xbox 360 hardware sales. And now they are dead silent on Xbox one and Xbox series sales numbers. Its not really difficult to understand.
And also I find it amusing that you are making a mountain out of a mole hill for this insignificant detail. But my point still stands, the software sales for MLB the show on Xbox are nothing to brag about. I'd like to move on from this subject as it's taking too much of an effort on my part for such an insignificant thing.
My issue is specifically with the conspiracy theories, not your views on MLB's sales. I don't think its helpful to sales discussion/discourse.
We could use your logic above to claim many things, since there are many other publishers who are not on Circana's Digital Panel.
Game Science isn't on the panel. That doesn't mean that they want to hide Black Myth Wukong's numbers because they are embarrassed. Epic Games isn't on the panel. That doesn't mean they made this decision at the request of Sony.
In this particular case, it's far more likely that MLB simply doesn't give a shit about knowing digital sales from video game publishers. I don't think MS or Nintendo is forcing MLB executives to make that decision.
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jm89
Member
Only when a narrative needs to be spun by mat
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Mibu no ookami
Banned
usually during the last year of game production, lot of the team peel off and begin working on other titles, few people remain in the late stages when it moves into QA...so heres a roughbreakdown i did with chatgpt using cross checking with the credits
A rough estimate of the development cost for Assassin's Creed Shadows, based on staff roles and average salaries over the 4-year cycle, comes out to:
≈ $2.39 billion USD
- Programmers: ~$543 million
- Designers: ~$368 million
- Artists: ~$549 million
- Technical Artists: ~$129 million
- Producers/Managers: ~$310 million
- QA/Testers: ~$155 million
- Writers/Localization: ~$103 million
- Audio: ~$70 million
- Other roles (admin, biz dev, support): ~$163 million
This estimate assumes:
- Salaries were steady over time
- Most credited roles were involved full-time during the 4 years
- It doesn't include marketing, licensing, external contractors, or post-launch support
of course this doesnt take into account things like..international salaries or the malaysian guys they pay ten bucks an hour to shit out props
This is easily one of the worst posts I've ever seen on neogaf...
Mibu no ookami
Banned
I see that Ubi shills still trying hard to convince people AC Shadows is not a flop
Oblivion Remastered had 4 million players in 3 days
AC Shadows 3 million players in 1 week
As someone who has no interest in either game, let me ask, how does Oblivion's sales matter to AC Shadows? How are they relevant?
Astray
Member
Just wait, he's out there travelling Japan and documenting just how much the game is inaccurate and how its devs should commit seppuku asap to cleanse their sins.
This is just amazing rofl.I see that Ubi shills still trying hard to convince people AC Shadows is not a flop
Oblivion Remastered had 4 million players in 3 days
AC Shadows 3 million players in 1 week
I thought you were done with the salt but somehow you still got more in you.
Mr Reasonable
Completely Unreasonable
I see that Ubi shills still trying hard to convince people AC Shadows is not a flop
Oblivion Remastered had 4 million players in 3 days
AC Shadows 3 million players in 1 week
Is 3million players in a week bad?
Killer8
Member
But...
Not even gonna bother tagging all da haters in this one.
Cuz the prerelease threads were wild as fuck.
We had history PHDs coming out the woodwork, hell we had vehement Assassins Creed fans who seemingly forgot AC is a work of fiction telling us NO AC is all about historical accuracy.
Misss meee wwitttthhh that shit!
The...
CCU!!!
Kotaro
Member
It's terrible for a game that cost at least $250 million
Horseganador
Member
With its "silence" we already know which version is the best-selling.
Woopah
Member
Out of all the games released in the last 12 months, Mat has released splits for a grand total of 2 games. 1 led on Playstation and 1 led on PC.
So what is the narrative Mat is spinning, and which version is the leading one when there is silence?
Mr Reasonable
Completely Unreasonable
How many does it need to be?
Spiderman 2 on PS5 did 2.5m preorders and 5m in 11 days.
Given the insane hype around sm2, the bought off reviews, etc. I don't see how 3m is a bad number.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Bought off reviews for SM2?
Some of yall can't take it when something you hate, performs very well I see.
Mr Reasonable
Completely Unreasonable
I knew someone wouldn't be able to handle itBought off reviews for SM2?
Some of yall can't take it when something you hate, performs very well I see.
.Being deadly serious though, none of the glowing reviews the game got mentioned the crashes and bugs that the game launched with, glossing over those kinds of failings would have people frothing at the mouth around here if it were a game from a different publisher.
EDIT: I can well imagine you are triggered by that, Demigod.
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calico
Member
How is it odd? I invoked it in the context of saying I don't think Shadows should not have been beaten by it (on playstation).
I was clarifying that you did not mean 'just behind' as in 'it was close'.
But surely you understand that the sales of the game in 1st cannot tell us how well the game in 2nd has sold... Only the games below it can do that.
adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
Ok, but Shadows is still the highest selling game of the month overall, just not on one specific platform.
Ok?
We know it exceeded multi-million sellers which have been in the market for longer like Split Fiction and KCD2 and is only behind MH Wilds as far as total sales of the year go so far.
I don't know why you keep applying extra caveats to it instead of just agreeing that it has sold well.
usually during the last year of game production, lot of the team peel off and begin working on other titles, few people remain in the late stages when it moves into QA...so heres a roughbreakdown i did with chatgpt using cross checking with the credits
A rough estimate of the development cost for Assassin's Creed Shadows, based on staff roles and average salaries over the 4-year cycle, comes out to:
≈ $2.39 billion USD
Estimated Cost by Role (over 4 years):
- Programmers: ~$543 million
- Designers: ~$368 million
- Artists: ~$549 million
- Technical Artists: ~$129 million
- Producers/Managers: ~$310 million
- QA/Testers: ~$155 million
- Writers/Localization: ~$103 million
- Audio: ~$70 million
- Other roles (admin, biz dev, support): ~$163 million
This estimate assumes:
- Salaries were steady over time
- Most credited roles were involved full-time during the 4 years
- It doesn't include marketing, licensing, external contractors, or post-launch support
of course this doesnt take into account things like..international salaries or the malaysian guys they pay ten bucks an hour to shit out props
The absolute intense need and desire from some of y'all to hate on the game is laughable
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calico
Member
Depends on the sports game tbh. I don't think outselling MLB The Show proves much, but that is effectively what is being offered as proof of success. You would have to ask those doing so how it is proof of success.
calico
Member
Now we are getting somewhere. How many multi-millions have they sold? 2m? 8m?
Because the 'proof' so far offered for that is flimsy at best.
adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
Per last reporting, Split Fiction sold 2 million in one week and KCD2 sold 2 million in two weeks after their respective releases.
Bizarre.
I've never seen anyone ever before argue this much against a game selling well despite it being the #1 best selling game of the month.
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