Descenders, Wasteland 3, Second Extinction, Crusader Kings 3, Gears of War HiveBusters.
Some of those would go into obscurity and some would just not be as big as they are with Gamepass.
i would argue wasteland 3 was selling well and was a kickstarter game. So not a good comparison. Yes more people specifically on console are exposed to that game and others similarly. But I would say steam, gog have been doing this to great effect for the genre. I think wasteland on console is your specific point as those games you mentioned, and dlc would have their place on PC.
I think games would sell if they were interesting enough to rise above the pack, or congested scene that is indie, and small AA titles. The medium your right at its price point was dead in the water, so is Returnal. But word of mouth, and sales will help those type of titles.
If your game was another run of the mill pixel art or survival indie game and there's nothing really grabbing a lot of attention. Then something like making a deal with PS+ or gamepass makes sense to get more exposure. But your making it out to be like the market wont correct itself.
Gamepass is not changing NIntendo, nor is it going to change Sony. Sony will just adjust if they see $70 doesnt have the effect they want. Which they have already done for some of their PS5 titles. Returnal will probably come down in price a lot sooner than people think.
My biggest issue is you compare film/tv content with video games which in terms of delivery is a good anaology. In terms of the interaction with the person who wants to play/watch said content is where it falls apart. The time we put into a game is not the same as film/tv content. You watch a show, then thats it. Once in a blue moon you comeback to re-watch it. But once it's over it's over.
I can count a shit ton of games I've come back to and played on a regular basis. And some online, but most all single player. With the content rotating on a service it's hard to ever really get invested knowing depending on the title if it might be leaving.
Case in point Red dead 2. Imagine getting invested, playing the main story. Then you want to go back and explore all the side stuff, oh wait you can't it's removed from gamepass. Guess I'll buy it hopefully discounted. If not i find it shitty to pay full price for something that was part of a service I pay for.
What if it's a older game from 360 days, are the servers even going to work at that point? And if I don't check in online connection wise can I access the game even?
In terms of value its a great market grower like all services, the thing is like all the services games are more expensive if people are playing more the AAA, AA games. The data they have shows majority of what people are playing, and I can bet you the money for in-game purchases are coming from the bigger titles they sign, and pay to have on the service.
More people are playing games on gamepass, thats great. But also it's not like things like steam sales, humble bundle, gog, and other market places and services are not growing the market.
Also PC gamepass is complete ass.