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Destiny |OT17| 17th inning stretch
- Thread starter Kor of Memory
- Start date
Twilight Gap
Member
milkham
Member
love those erotic engrams, my motes are ready.
xplicitone
Member
Finally caught up to today and yesterday's posts. Wow I feel so sick to my stomach at KermitTHEfrog. Not only has he done it to this kid but OTHERS since at least December?!
UGHHHH
I wish someone can hack his account and delete his characters and perform illegal activities with his PSN resulting in account deletion. Bye bye precious Plats. Over 100 Plats seriously? He obviously has WAY too much time.
Also, Bungie pls. You should do weekly database backups. You keep stats from Halo 2 onwards so you definitely have the space.
UGHHHH
I wish someone can hack his account and delete his characters and perform illegal activities with his PSN resulting in account deletion. Bye bye precious Plats. Over 100 Plats seriously? He obviously has WAY too much time.
Also, Bungie pls. You should do weekly database backups. You keep stats from Halo 2 onwards so you definitely have the space.
And now you're back, ready to resume ruling us.
Orthogonal
Member
Maybe, but they have control over Xur to do it now. They have already demonstrated the ability to hotfix his stock live.
Who doesn't? I'm leaking light just thinking about them.
ShaperofStories
Member
Anybody for some weeklies? Just hit me up on PSN.
The moment when you rush to put up a bubble for boomers, and realize you have no super.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P17ZOuzdx7Y
Sorry for not helping with Crota DPS lol
lol that's awesome
Orthogonal
Member
Maybe someone can do a longcon on his ass and get him to shareplay or get his login info and take care of business.
weremichael
Member
Quite sociopathic. I hope he keeps those behaviors online and isn't actually really hurting people.
So yeah, I did a google image search for that and I found this for you:
figadapaura
Member
Well, of course.
Let's roll them dice!
Per the bold, this concept is killing me.... how I do I get to this "feels random" place?!
I can't do it... random doesn't feel like anything to me- it's the absence of detectable patterns, it's completely inhuman and "feeling-agnostic." It doesn't care. To me, the words "feels" and "random" almost contradict one another even without any context.
I'm just not sure what it's supposed to mean- it looks like what you're saying here is that random and balanced ("Looks more balanced then my time with Destiny") are conflated in your mind.
But that's almost lunacy from the perspective of statistical analysis. Just using the approach above, and setting aside the issues that may result from differences between such a test and the game in practice- let's say your rolls looked even "better":
After 17 rolls, you had 1 of each Exotic (for a total of 17).
After 34 rolls, you had 2 of each Exotic (for a total of 34).
In other words, after receiving each Exotic, you only got one duplicate of each one until, at last, you had 2 of each one.
For both of us, I think, this would appear to be evidence (though not altogether strong evidence, since we're still dealing with literally a single individual) for some form of non-random distribution: as though the system were checking to see which items you had 0 of and giving you one of those, then checking which items you only had 1 of and giving you one of those, et cetera. If I'm wrong about how you'd interpret this- if these results would actually "feel random" to you, then let me know, but such a distribution is how I'd expect things to look if an "intelligent inquiry" system of loot were being used.
My problem is that it seems like you're saying the closer your loot distribution gets to this scenario (without actually being it exactly), the more random it feels. The further it gets from this (with lots of Exotics you get multiple times, or certain Exotics you never get), the less random it is.
But looking at it that was is totally contradictory to the idea of randomness in the first place. If you, PrivateWHudson, were not an individual but a decentralized botnet of 500,000 machines that had identical results- there would be an awful lot of merit in the idea that something was "going on" beyond a dice roll. But one person isn't good enough. 10 aren't good enough and 100 would be just starting to scratch the service of valuable data. There are MILLIONS of players- hundreds of millions of loot rolls. The game doesn't care in the slightest how weird a scenario is for any one player and take steps to correct this; if it did, that would not be random.
These really don't line up since I'm not clear on what your test was meant to simulate in-game, but I thought it would be helpful to rearrange the numbers you provided from your first lineup, to cluster together like results as you did (and put them in ascending order)- your "actual results" in-game, I guess, on the top, the first column of rolls on the bottom. The top has 4 more "rolls" than the bottom, but I wouldn't know the best way to subtract or add from either so, let's just look at them together.
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 3, 4, 4, 5
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3
The idea that one of these distribution sequences is inherently more or less random than the other is baffling to me. Again, this is a terrible comparison, at least until I know how I'm meant to use your random.org results, but I thought it might be illustrative just to depict the data this way.
Destiny absolutely employs weighting in its loot tables. There's no doubt about it. It's demonstrable. We know that this happens from research, and (to some extent) this is what makes certain items rare in comparison to others. Here's an approximation of the loot table of HM VoG from just over 1000 responses, and here's an analysis of what exotics tend to drop from the Deathsinger with some decent (not at all conclusive, but notable) evidence from 400+ that DLC exotics are weighted significantly higher there than non-DLC exotics. I haven't actually seen any research that suggests weighting of certain Exotics over others at every potential interaction with a loot table that contains an Exotic- for example, if you get an Exotic from a Nightfall or you get an Exotic from the Gorgon chest, it is less likely to be a Gjallarhorn than a Universal Remote- but I wouldn't be at all surprised if something exactly like this were the case.
If this explains away your odd experiences sufficiently, then we're totally done and can pack up and go home. Just blame it on weighting. Destiny uses weighting at nearly every possible opportunity for a loot roll, and in the tables that can contain an Exotic, the overwhelmingly most likely result is "something that is not an Exotic." This makes research on the distribution within Exotic rolls- for Nightfalls, for example- pretty difficult and unwieldy. The best research I've seen on Nightfall loot results, with 6000+ responses, for example, doesn't do this- and I can't particularly blame them. There's a ~67% chance not to get an Exotic and an ~82% chance not to get an Exotic weapon- how do you know whether, within the ~18.1% chance to get an Exotic weapon ("hit" on the roll), there's then a second table with weighted distributions for each weapon, or if each Exotic weapon simply has a ~1% chance in the original loot table? Having people respond with the specific exotic they got would've been great, but if it's the former we wouldn't have had much to go on with such tiny chances for each one to begin with (unless the weighting was extremely heavy... I do wish they'd done it), and if it's the latter we'd really have no way to distinguish it from a weak version of the former. What we really need for testing on some kind of universal weighting ("Exotic? Yes. Which Exotic?") is an Exotic weapon engram, but even that would be limited only to one slot's array of weapons at a time...
Anyway like I said, if all you needed to know was that this is going on, then you're golden. Destiny uses weighted loot tables, case closed. I've never remotely argued otherwise.
I just have to make mention of how monumentally different this fact is from the concept that the game locks certain accounts to certain drops, checks your past drop activity or current equipment to produce drops, or prevent certain players from ever receiving items that they want.
Let's just use the analogy of an actual dice roll, but instead of numbers on the die there are colors. The carnie offers you a chance to win- just land on Gold! Turns out- three sides are blue, two sides are red, and one is gold. This is what a roll on Destiny's loot tables is like. We don't know how many sides there are for sure or how many colors are on which, but it is happening, to some extent, for sure. It's difficult for me, and would feel a little disingenuous, to say that this is "not random"- it still is a dice roll, and the only factors are raw probabilities and statistics. But I'm comfortable saying it's not "completely random," which is a phrase that implies an equal distribution of all results without any weighting.
Now let's say the carnie says the same thing, just land on Gold to win! But then before you roll, he hears that you've been getting Blue for 5 weeks in a row, and so he paints 4 more of the sides Gold, to balance things out a little bit. Or, more relevant to the experiences that are usually mentioned, he decides to just paint them all Blue, to fuck with you and have a good laugh about it. This would not be random. Something altogether outside the roll of the die is influencing the results- and there's simply no evidence of this occurring in Destiny at all.
So first off, what are you simulating here? I rely on this exact site literally every week- which generator did you use? It looks like... 30 "rolls" means, 30 chances to get an Exotic, and you get an Exotic every time (i.e. the total in the second column is 30)? What scenario in your experience playing Destiny are you trying to recreate? If you can clarify this, I'll try and help parse any methodological issues with your test.
Per the bold, this concept is killing me.... how I do I get to this "feels random" place?!
I can't do it... random doesn't feel like anything to me- it's the absence of detectable patterns, it's completely inhuman and "feeling-agnostic." It doesn't care. To me, the words "feels" and "random" almost contradict one another even without any context.I'm just not sure what it's supposed to mean- it looks like what you're saying here is that random and balanced ("Looks more balanced then my time with Destiny") are conflated in your mind.
But that's almost lunacy from the perspective of statistical analysis. Just using the approach above, and setting aside the issues that may result from differences between such a test and the game in practice- let's say your rolls looked even "better":
After 17 rolls, you had 1 of each Exotic (for a total of 17).
After 34 rolls, you had 2 of each Exotic (for a total of 34).
In other words, after receiving each Exotic, you only got one duplicate of each one until, at last, you had 2 of each one.
For both of us, I think, this would appear to be evidence (though not altogether strong evidence, since we're still dealing with literally a single individual) for some form of non-random distribution: as though the system were checking to see which items you had 0 of and giving you one of those, then checking which items you only had 1 of and giving you one of those, et cetera. If I'm wrong about how you'd interpret this- if these results would actually "feel random" to you, then let me know, but such a distribution is how I'd expect things to look if an "intelligent inquiry" system of loot were being used.
My problem is that it seems like you're saying the closer your loot distribution gets to this scenario (without actually being it exactly), the more random it feels. The further it gets from this (with lots of Exotics you get multiple times, or certain Exotics you never get), the less random it is.
But looking at it that was is totally contradictory to the idea of randomness in the first place. If you, PrivateWHudson, were not an individual but a decentralized botnet of 500,000 machines that had identical results- there would be an awful lot of merit in the idea that something was "going on" beyond a dice roll. But one person isn't good enough. 10 aren't good enough and 100 would be just starting to scratch the service of valuable data. There are MILLIONS of players- hundreds of millions of loot rolls. The game doesn't care in the slightest how weird a scenario is for any one player and take steps to correct this; if it did, that would not be random.
These really don't line up since I'm not clear on what your test was meant to simulate in-game, but I thought it would be helpful to rearrange the numbers you provided from your first lineup, to cluster together like results as you did (and put them in ascending order)- your "actual results" in-game, I guess, on the top, the first column of rolls on the bottom. The top has 4 more "rolls" than the bottom, but I wouldn't know the best way to subtract or add from either so, let's just look at them together.
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 3, 4, 4, 5
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3
The idea that one of these distribution sequences is inherently more or less random than the other is baffling to me. Again, this is a terrible comparison, at least until I know how I'm meant to use your random.org results, but I thought it might be illustrative just to depict the data this way.
Hm... okay, I think we need to take a step back here and maybe this will help you feel better.
Destiny absolutely employs weighting in its loot tables. There's no doubt about it. It's demonstrable. We know that this happens from research, and (to some extent) this is what makes certain items rare in comparison to others. Here's an approximation of the loot table of HM VoG from just over 1000 responses, and here's an analysis of what exotics tend to drop from the Deathsinger with some decent (not at all conclusive, but notable) evidence from 400+ that DLC exotics are weighted significantly higher there than non-DLC exotics. I haven't actually seen any research that suggests weighting of certain Exotics over others at every potential interaction with a loot table that contains an Exotic- for example, if you get an Exotic from a Nightfall or you get an Exotic from the Gorgon chest, it is less likely to be a Gjallarhorn than a Universal Remote- but I wouldn't be at all surprised if something exactly like this were the case.
If this explains away your odd experiences sufficiently, then we're totally done and can pack up and go home. Just blame it on weighting. Destiny uses weighting at nearly every possible opportunity for a loot roll, and in the tables that can contain an Exotic, the overwhelmingly most likely result is "something that is not an Exotic." This makes research on the distribution within Exotic rolls- for Nightfalls, for example- pretty difficult and unwieldy. The best research I've seen on Nightfall loot results, with 6000+ responses, for example, doesn't do this- and I can't particularly blame them. There's a ~67% chance not to get an Exotic and an ~82% chance not to get an Exotic weapon- how do you know whether, within the ~18.1% chance to get an Exotic weapon ("hit" on the roll), there's then a second table with weighted distributions for each weapon, or if each Exotic weapon simply has a ~1% chance in the original loot table? Having people respond with the specific exotic they got would've been great, but if it's the former we wouldn't have had much to go on with such tiny chances for each one to begin with (unless the weighting was extremely heavy... I do wish they'd done it), and if it's the latter we'd really have no way to distinguish it from a weak version of the former. What we really need for testing on some kind of universal weighting ("Exotic? Yes. Which Exotic?") is an Exotic weapon engram, but even that would be limited only to one slot's array of weapons at a time...
Anyway like I said, if all you needed to know was that this is going on, then you're golden. Destiny uses weighted loot tables, case closed. I've never remotely argued otherwise.
I just have to make mention of how monumentally different this fact is from the concept that the game locks certain accounts to certain drops, checks your past drop activity or current equipment to produce drops, or prevent certain players from ever receiving items that they want.
Let's just use the analogy of an actual dice roll, but instead of numbers on the die there are colors. The carnie offers you a chance to win- just land on Gold! Turns out- three sides are blue, two sides are red, and one is gold. This is what a roll on Destiny's loot tables is like. We don't know how many sides there are for sure or how many colors are on which, but it is happening, to some extent, for sure. It's difficult for me, and would feel a little disingenuous, to say that this is "not random"- it still is a dice roll, and the only factors are raw probabilities and statistics. But I'm comfortable saying it's not "completely random," which is a phrase that implies an equal distribution of all results without any weighting.
Now let's say the carnie says the same thing, just land on Gold to win! But then before you roll, he hears that you've been getting Blue for 5 weeks in a row, and so he paints 4 more of the sides Gold, to balance things out a little bit. Or, more relevant to the experiences that are usually mentioned, he decides to just paint them all Blue, to fuck with you and have a good laugh about it. This would not be random. Something altogether outside the roll of the die is influencing the results- and there's simply no evidence of this occurring in Destiny at all.
TheApatheticOne
Member
Joining up, Mindlog and I are in the weekly.
AmateurHour212
Member
It's nice when you're playing IB and it takes seconds for your damage to register.
ReignofSparrows
Member
Gonna run VoG Hard again. Starting from Oracle checkpoint. Have 2 spots.
AmateurHour212
Member
Atheon HM. You want in?
Cybrwzrd
Banned
Well today's update is slightly better than last weeks- which was like a pre patch purple engram rolling into a green, but this week is like a post patch purple rolling into shards. Cue the its nothing gifs.
How about just putting it all on the table and gauge player reaction instead of the trolling soon comments.
How about just putting it all on the table and gauge player reaction instead of the trolling soon comments.
Poker Face
Member
Sure thing.
Easy mode it's no issue at all. Hard mode I can only solo abyss though..might be able to do bridge too if you have ice breaker and warlock self-res combo.
Funny- it really is like they listened to the Mythoclast episode about Matchmaking, all of the stuff here echoes what we said almost exactly.
They have a week to get it out... they shouldn't have ever given themselves a handicap if "end of February" was really up in the air.
They commented on the awful shareplay thing:
I really, really hope that this is the "we've opened a project for an in-game grouping board/LFG tool" message I've been waiting to see. It's a truly no-brainer, no-downside addition.
hmm ok good stuff. no clarity as to if any of this is live or part of the patch but whatever.
They have a week to get it out... they shouldn't have ever given themselves a handicap if "end of February" was really up in the air.
They commented on the awful shareplay thing:
Some form of state capture/rollback ability through support would be a silver lining, if it comes to pass.
Orthogonal
Member
I've been under a rock today. The Order has pre-loaded and ready to unlock tonight, but god damn. Gaming side is a full blown riot on this game.
DrDrizzay101
Member
Narmer and myself were looking to do HM Atheon if we can get enough. A couple other people expressed interest but not sure if they are still up for it now or not.
haha yeah that match was rough. Lag + 4 blueberries = you're gonna have a bad time...
ethomaz
Banned
Me, ethomaz
Edit - Seems like we have 4 guys
PSN: Dunk7
Orthogonal
Member
Blueberries? Is that what you call randoms?
PSN?
Jesus ! The recoil and bolt action timing for No Land Beyond. It'd be something if it atleast had high damage to negate all that plus the low ammo capacity but as it stands it has absolutely nothing, why even have such a gun in the game ? You can't even troll with it properly (I don't consider those youtube videos of 5 kill streaks with this weapon trolling, it might as well have taken them 100 matches to get that footage and we'd not know)
ArkkAngel007
Member
Oh yes...Bungie Weekly Update day. Almost forgot due to The Order hubbaloo.
Not a bad update. Glad to see Xur have engram rolls every week (can we get weapons?).
Not a bad update. Glad to see Xur have engram rolls every week (can we get weapons?).
I'm down for Atheon
DrDrizzay101
Member
Somnium986
Member
I really hope Xur has some goddamn heavy ammo this week. I'd take guaranteed heavy synthesis over exotic engrams.
DrDrizzay101
Member
...where did you go Narmer?
Mine is DrDrizzay101, I'm ready whenever. In orbit now. edit: technically we really only need 4, but 5 would give a little scrub buffer, 6 is always nice.
1.) Narmer...?
2.) me
3.) Lnkn
4.) boofa
5.) devilsadvocate..?
6.) ?
haha yeah, exactly
Mine is DrDrizzay101, I'm ready whenever. In orbit now. edit: technically we really only need 4, but 5 would give a little scrub buffer, 6 is always nice.
1.) Narmer...?
2.) me
3.) Lnkn
4.) boofa
5.) devilsadvocate..?
6.) ?
haha yeah, exactly
You'll be dead before it could even begin!
You're also forgetting LiK is still up there.
ReignofSparrows
Member
One more spot for Hard VoG from Oracles if anyone wants in.
Liquidsnake
Banned
How about a heavy exotic engram
You'll be dead before it could even begin!
You're also forgetting LiK is still up there.
Lik, don't ruin my moment.
I really want to be able to skim my friends list on Destiny and 1) see who has already run raids/weekly/nightfalls, and who wants to. I'd like to be able to put in a note or beacon of some sort so when players look at what I'm doing, it doesn't say "Patrolling the Moon" (or whatever it says). It would say, "Patrolling the Moon, Wants to: Raid, Nightfall". Bam, out got the invites.
Yay about adding matchmaking to the Weekly. It's a whole other beast compared to the Nightfall and raids, so matchmaking makes a lot more sense for it.
AmateurHour212
Member
I'm here.
I was finishing up that last IB match. We actually came back and won after you left. Lag was all over the place. If it's steady lag, I can sorta adjust for it. This was back and forth all over the place.
Very much this. I'm still convinced the lack of heavy ammo since hard mode was released is a deliberate decision by Bungie to keep us grinding.