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Destiny |OT17| 17th inning stretch

O

Orthogonal

Member
GhaleonEB said:
I really want to be able to skim my friends list on Destiny and 1) see who has already run raids/weekly/nightfalls, and who wants to. I'd like to be able to put in a note or beacon of some sort so when players look at what I'm doing, it doesn't say "Patrolling the Moon" (or whatever it says). It would say, "Patrolling the Moon, Wants to: Raid, Nightfall". Bam, out got the invites.

Yay about adding matchmaking to the Weekly. It's a whole other beast compared to the Nightfall and raids, so matchmaking makes a lot more sense for it.
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Thats a good idea. Maybe add a small text section in our emblam banner with what we are currently seeking.
 
L

Liquidsnake

Banned
I wish the tower had a "looking for Riad group" area, where we could look at each others weapons and gear, and start a group. Just like a Raid meeting area.
 
T

Twilight Gap

Member
tumblr_inline_mny5zjMXHW1qz4rgp.gif
 
H

Hawkian

The Cryptarch's Bane
GhaleonEB said:
I really want to be able to skim my friends list on Destiny and 1) see who has already run raids/weekly/nightfalls, and who wants to. I'd like to be able to put in a note or beacon of some sort so when players look at what I'm doing, it doesn't say "Patrolling the Moon" (or whatever it says). It would say, "Patrolling the Moon, Wants to: Raid, Nightfall". Bam, out got the invites.

Yay about adding matchmaking to the Weekly. It's a whole other beast compared to the Nightfall and raids, so matchmaking makes a lot more sense for it.
Click to expand...
That would be great intermediate functionality. Could even skip the "who has already run" aspect altogether, no? If someone wants to help run a Nightfall even if they already have, why not?
 
D

DrDrizzay101

Member
randomraaawr said:
Very much this. I'm still convinced the lack of heavy ammo since hard mode was released is a deliberate decision by Bungie to keep us grinding.
Click to expand...

I don't think there's any question about that. Xur isn't random, he's controlled by Bungie and always has been. They can change his load out at the drop of the hat as they proved back in the day when they quickly removed the strange coin for glimmer exchange or w/e it was because people were deleting alts to abuse it.
 
B

bitsurugi

Member
Ouch that kid crying at the end...


.. worst thing is that no one will ever trust nobody, so we, the good guys, will get screwed in helping ppl in the way share play was meant to play :/


Also: gg's today in the Banner GAF guys, had a blast, eventho we had 7 times of 10 on Delphi. That map rotation fix can't come soon enough.
 
H

Hawkian

The Cryptarch's Bane
Hawkian said:
Sign-ups! First come first serve. Newbie Raid this week is Vault of Glass.

If you attempt to sign up for an activity and find it already full, but would like to be put on the list as an Alt if someone cannot make it, please send me a PM here on GAF or a PSN message (ID is Hawkian).

Thursday - 2/19 - 9:00PM EST - Vault of Glass Newbie Raid - Sign Up Here

These are weekly raids available to all, but intended for newbies. Bring your highest leveled character, your best weapon, and your most patient self! All encounters will be explained (quickly, but still) as though it was a brand new group, so please be willing to listen. The only restriction on attendance is that participants shouldn't come two weeks in row, just to allow many different GAF Guardians to cycle through. There is no pressure to understand anything before having it explained, and no pointing fingers when things break down. We will laugh at ourselves when we wipe, and then do better the next attempt.

Raids alternate each week between the Vault of Glass and Crota's End.

Minimum level for Vault of Glass Normal is 26.
Minimum level for Crota's End is 30.

Sunday - 2/22 - 9:00PM EST - Sunday Sword School - Sign Up Here

Swordbearer practice and technique for taking down Crota, as well as tips and preparation for Hard Mode. Please be familiar with the basic mechanics of the encounter. Get your hands on the sword in a stress-free environment!
We'll establish an order and have a different person take up the sword each time, wiping before ogres. After everyone has had a shot, we'll maintain the rotation and go for the actual class kill.

No chalice! Come prepared with some method of healing yourself- preferably a helm with the "Infusion" perk. Other options include: Being a Titan (using your bubble heals you), Red Death/SUROS Regime, Life Steal on Voidwalker, Hungering Blade on Bladedancer.

Minimum level is 31.
Click to expand...
still got a few spots.

The VoG newbie raid is in about 2 hours
 
P

PrivateWHudson

Member
Hawkian said:
Let's roll them dice!

So first off, what are you simulating here? I rely on this exact site literally every week- which generator did you use? It looks like... 30 "rolls" means, 30 chances to get an Exotic, and you get an Exotic every time (i.e. the total in the second column is 30)? What scenario in your experience playing Destiny are you trying to recreate? If you can clarify this, I'll try and help parse any methodological issues with your test.
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30 rolls where I was lucky enough to roll an exotic weapon. I was going to stop at 15 since that's probably closer to my Destiny experience, but I kept going to see how long it would take to get 5+ of the same weapon like in Destiny. I never got there.

Per the bold, this concept is killing me.... how I do I get to this "feels random" place?! :p I can't do it... random doesn't feel like anything to me- it's the absence of detectable patterns, it's completely inhuman and "feeling-agnostic." It doesn't care. To me, the words "feels" and "random" almost contradict one another even without any context.
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I use "feel" since as you point out, I don't have any meaningful data.

Snip a bit...I did read it all

Hm... okay, I think we need to take a step back here and maybe this will help you feel better.

Destiny absolutely employs weighting in its loot tables. There's no doubt about it. It's demonstrable. We know that this happens from research, and (to some extent) this is what makes certain items rare in comparison to others. Here's an approximation of the loot table of HM VoG from just over 1000 responses, and here's an analysis of what exotics tend to drop from the Deathsinger with some decent (not at all conclusive, but notable) evidence from 400+ that DLC exotics are weighted significantly higher there than non-DLC exotics. I haven't actually seen any research that suggests weighting of certain Exotics over others at every potential interaction with a loot table that contains an Exotic- for example, if you get an Exotic from a Nightfall or you get an Exotic from the Gorgon chest, it is less likely to be a Gjallarhorn than a Universal Remote- but I wouldn't be at all surprised if something exactly like this were the case.

If this explains away your odd experiences sufficiently, then we're totally done and can pack up and go home. Just blame it on weighting. Destiny uses weighting at nearly every possible opportunity for a loot roll, and in the tables that can contain an Exotic, the overwhelmingly most likely result is "something that is not an Exotic." This makes research on the distribution within Exotic rolls- for Nightfalls, for example- pretty difficult and unwieldy. The best research I've seen on Nightfall loot results, with 6000+ responses, for example, doesn't do this- and I can't particularly blame them. There's a ~67% chance not to get an Exotic and an ~82% chance not to get an Exotic weapon- how do you know whether, within the ~18.1% chance to get an Exotic weapon ("hit" on the roll), there's then a second table with weighted distributions for each weapon, or if each Exotic weapon simply has a ~1% chance in the original loot table? Having people respond with the specific exotic they got would've been great, but if it's the former we wouldn't have had much to go on with such tiny chances for each one to begin with (unless the weighting was extremely heavy... I do wish they'd done it), and if it's the latter we'd really have no way to distinguish it from a weak version of the former. What we really need for testing on some kind of universal weighting ("Exotic? Yes. Which Exotic?") is an Exotic weapon engram, but even that would be limited only to one slot's array of weapons at a time...

Anyway like I said, if all you needed to know was that this is going on, then you're golden. Destiny uses weighted loot tables, case closed. I've never remotely argued otherwise.

I just have to make mention of how monumentally different this fact is from the concept that the game locks certain accounts to certain drops, checks your past drop activity or current equipment to produce drops, or prevent certain players from ever receiving items that they want.
Click to expand...

This is probably the biggest part, and if all of the Exotic drops have different weights, it could very well be the root cause of the "feeling". If I only grab the hard Gorgon chest and do hard Atheon every time, and you always do both on normal, then on hard, (with different weighting) it could absolutely feel like I'm getting screwed and you are getting the loot that I never get. Honestly, I didn't consider weighting at all before the DLC and that could easily have colored my vision as to whether or not I had a shitty RNG seed. Also, has there been any data to show whether or not the weights change from week to week? It would help explain three Monte Carlos in a row for the Colonel.

Also, apparently I'm very lucky since the deathsinger gave me yet another P&T :)

http://www.reddit.com/r/DestinyTheG...ic_drop_probabilities_at_ir_yut_are_weighted/
  • Gjallarhorn: 9.3%
  • Patience and Time: 3.7%
 
D

Dunk#7

Member
Crota's End (Normal Mode) FULL RAID

Forming

1. Dunk7
2. ethomaz
3. Tick221
4. chrome_sitar
5.
6.


2 MORE

Trying to push this so I can get moving on iron banner. Want to get this done first.
 
C

CLBridges

Member
The weekly update should have just been one word...SOON lol. But, I'm glad their making some of the changes people have been asking for and have other things on the table. Oh, and I watched that last video posted with the kid getting his characters/exotics deleted...it's a cold world smh. Hopefully Bungie will help the kid out a bit.
 
D

Dr_LawyerCop

Member
Anyone have a hard Crota (or death singer I guess) checkpoint I can grab? I think my team is finally going to give it a shot tonight, but I don't think we'll have time to run the whole thing.

PSN - Dr_LawyerCop
 
H

Hawkian

The Cryptarch's Bane
PrivateWHudson said:
30 rolls where I was lucky enough to roll an exotic weapon. I was going to stop at 15 since that's probably closer to my Destiny experience, but I kept going to see how long it would take to get 5+ of the same weapon like in Destiny. I never got there.
Click to expand...
Hmm, so that's trouble for starters because a roll where you're lucky enough to get an Exotic weapon- now let's see which it is?- never occurs in Destiny. There are no rolls where you're only rolling against the possibility of an Exotic weapon- even the chests- "<no Exotic>" is by far the most likely result. Some people are just going to get more exotics total than others and that has a marked effect. It would be a little better if "nothing" were a potential roll each time too, we could say it was 15 hits of the Gorgon chest or whatever. What do you mean about "never got there," though- which tool is it you're using?
This is probably the biggest part, and if all of the Exotic drops have different weights, it could very well be the root cause of the "feeling". If I only grab the hard Gorgon chest and do hard Atheon every time, and you always do both on normal, then on hard, (with different weighting) it could absolutely feel like I'm getting screwed and you are getting the loot that I never get. Honestly, I didn't consider weighting at all before the DLC and that could easily have colored my vision as to whether or not I had a shitty RNG seed.
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Or people who only do their Nightfalls every week having a different likelihood of exotic distribution than people who only Raid every week, and obviously we're just getting started with the variables.
Also, apparently I'm very lucky since the deathsinger gave me yet another P&T :)

http://www.reddit.com/r/DestinyTheG...ic_drop_probabilities_at_ir_yut_are_weighted/
  • Gjallarhorn: 9.3%
  • Patience and Time: 3.7%
Click to expand...
Haha, I definitely recommend reading the full text of that post, as gun to my head I'd come to the same conclusion he did- that the DLC exotics are weighted higher, and weighted equally, than the non-DLC exotics, which are weighted equally to one another- note the way he looks at the average probabilities of each group. The sample size isn't really high enough to conclude anything about the absolute values of the probabilities in question, but it definitely doesn't look that likely from the data to me that Gjallarhorn is a significantly more likely drop than any other- a 2.5% margin of error (it's likely quiiiite higher) would obliterate the "rankings."
 
S

SgtCobra

Member
Xûr wishlist:

Helm of Saint-14
Mask of the Third Man
Heart of Praxic Fire/Voidfang Vestments
Red Death/Thunderlord
Chest Engram

Redeem yourselves the Nine.
Xûr pls, don't disappoint me man, don't disappoint me..
 
P

patchday

Member
E92 M3 said:
I've only purchased one engram from Xur - don't see the value in them.
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I purchased an 'arm' exotic engram from Xur. It turned into that force barrier titan exotic. Iw as bout to shard it because I already had one. Then I noticed it had a higher strength value. So high infact, I sharded my old force barrier titan exotic and leveled up the brand new one

Both were Light 36 too btw. Took a screenshot but forgot to post it. I never knew this could occur.

[I was referring to No Backup Plans btw]
 
D

Dunk#7

Member
Update: FULL

Crota's End (Normal Mode) FULL RAID

Forming

1. Dunk7
2. ethomaz
3. Tick221
4. chrome_sitar
5. US-Frostburn
6. nOoblet16





Will invite in a few minutes. Helping buddy complete nightfall

Edit: FYI room for one in nightfall. PSN: Dunk7
 
R

RdN

Member
Guys, can you tell me which perks are the best to have on the shotgun from the Iron Banner?

I re rolled it and got Luck in the Chamber and Feeding Frenzy. Hammer forged too.

Is there something else that I should aim for?
 
O

Orthogonal

Member
RdN said:
Guys, can you tell me which perks are the best to have on the shotgun from the Iron Banner?

I re rolled it and got Luck in the Chamber and Feeding Frenzy. Hammer forged too.

Is there something else that I should aim for?
Click to expand...

Shotpackage is a top tier shotgun perk.
 
A

Axelhortsemchi

Member
Dunk#7 said:
Crota's End (Normal Mode) FULL RAID

Forming

1. Dunk7
2. ethomaz
3. Tick221
4. chrome_sitar
5.
6.


2 MORE

Trying to push this so I can get moving on iron banner. Want to get this done first.
Click to expand...
If that last slot is still open, I'll jump on, PSN's Lordsirsama

EDIT: nm, looks like it's full
 
P

patchday

Member
Man I just hope Xur brings the Titan ruin wings exotic. He hasn't brought any since I've purchased the expansion... FUUUUUUUUDGE...
 
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