Yeah. Georgia law is that a runoff is triggered between the two highest vote getters if no one reaches 50%.
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Georgia special election heads to runoff as Ossoff earns 48% of vote
- Thread starter RPGCrazied
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Yes, but he may just get Jill Stein'd
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
Exactly.
He probably won't, be if he holds that margin he takes it outright. He can afford to lose a couple of points, but not many.
Yeah, he would have won outright, under 50% and the top 2 candidates face off in a runoff election in June.
Nappuccino
Member
Yeah . . . it it a 50.1 situation, or must it be 51+?
skullmuffins
Banned
Yes, it's a jungle primary. All the candidates (17-ish? like a dozen Republicans, a few Dems, and 2 Ind) are competing in the same election. If one person pulls off a majority (50% plus one vote) , they win the seat outright. Otherwise, the top two candidates - regardless of party - go on to the June runoff.
TheCochese
Banned
Republicans vastly outnumber Democrats. If Handel distances herself from Trump but advocates a traditional R platform, it's a done deal.
You are correct. Unless a candidate, any candidate, gets 50% or more, there is a runoff between the top two candidates. In this case it would be Handel and Osoff. Party affiliation does not matter in a run a off for what it's worth.
He needs 50% +1 vote to avoid the run-off.
He was talking about getting 100% of Democrats that voted in November 2016 to show up. Its looking like 30,000 of those voters will not have turned out for this election, but that is normal.
The man deserves a vacation
BoogieWoogie
Banned
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
I wonder what the statistical likelihood of getting exactly 50% is. The results are almost guaranteed to be somewhere between 48-51, so there's probably a less-than-impossible chance of that happening. And then we can all collectively commit seppuku.
I'd jump out of a window if that happened.
poppedcollar69
Member
it'd be nice to have a big win
if you want to know what i think
if you want to know what i think
24-22 seats (depending on how this race and the Quist race go)? That's a normal-to-small swing as far as House elections go.
The problem is gerrymandering, but if the base turnout swings by even 7%, there are easily 2 dozen GOP districts that can fall, and we just saw KS-04 swing by 28%.
Senate's likely screwed. Best possible result is probably 50-50 (which itself is miraculous assuming we defend Manchin, Donnelly, and Heitkamp, and take down Heller and Flake) unless a miracle occurs and Ted Cruz goes down.
dc3k
Member
Democrats hope Jon Ossoff will win them the House seat vacated by Tom Price, the new health and human services secretary. If no candidate wins a majority of the vote, the top two will advance to a June 20 runoff.
from http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/georgia-house-special-election-district-6
Alex_Mexico
Member
He deserves the vacation. Plus, he's making the smart decision to let Trump do his thing for a while and flounder and then he'll push back. It helps no one to start complaining right away. He's giving Trump time to fuck up.
He'll be back soon enough.
Ossoff would be losing by a lot if it was. He is only looking good for us because republicans are demotivated and democrats are motivated.
And what will you do if he gets 49.1% and the other Democrats 0.9%?
TheCochese
Banned
Voter turnout looks to be about half across the district. Ossoff is beating the pants off what Stooksbury did in November.
Half what it normally is, I should say.
Count on that .9% to show up in the run off.
🙏🙏🙏🙏
That wouldn't put him over.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
I can't help but think someone voting for a dem other than Ossoff tonight, knowing the stakes, probably has some weird reason that they refuse to vote for him. If I were another dem candidate I wouldn't have even voted for myself today.
Stooksbury did 119,536 and Ossoff has a ceiling of 100,000. So the voters are there, which is what his point was. There are that many Democrats in the district, but you can't expect 100% turnout in a special election primary.
Yeah, if anybody gets 50% in the first round of a jungle primary, they don't hold a second round.
plagiarize
Banned
How does anyone claim the dems didnt unify behind a candidate here? They voted what 98% for the same candidate? What the hell do you expect?
That logic applies to some republicans too.
wumster3000
Member
Idk what the hell people are talking about.
Common Knowledge
Member
Ok, thanks for explanations, guys.
Looking at the live results, Ossolf has a huge lead. Is there worry that he wouldn't be able to win a possible second round against Handel despite that?
TheCochese
Banned
It doesn't matter if Republicans are anywhere close to being motivated. Which they will be in the runoff. That's why I said what I did.
The amount of flyers we got were insane, and that was with infighting. There won't be any infighting come June.
neurosisxeno
Member
He's running against like 6 Republicans who are splitting the vote. If he can't clear 50% and they all unite behind 1 person in June his chances aren't great.
SoRuffShoNuff
Member
District is basically rich white people. They will easily defeat a D challenger in a runoff.
The GOP vote in this round is highly fractured. A runoff would be competitive.
His point was focusing on this primary though, not the runoff.
This gif would be cooler if he wiped away the compression.
Carpe Libertatem
Member
That why this district just gave a Democrat ~48% of the vote?
Herr Schwarz
Banned
Am gonna wait for the next bit of data, then call it a night - unless he gets a bump babeehhh
ErasureAcer
Banned
Yes that kinda is my point. I dont expect the same numbers as 2016 but when 30,000 dont show up when all you need is 1-2,000 more votes...it's pretty shitty. Early voting, VBM, there's really no excuse not to vote.
What KHarvey finds this as "bullshit" is beyond me. Thanks to all the Dems that came out to vote for Ossoff in GA 06 and Thompson in KS 04. Those that didnt let the party down.
Throwing more money at candidates isnt really going to help reach these idiots who refuse to vote.
Dead Prince
Banned
man dies in peace. told Ossoff won as his final request.
SoRuffShoNuff
Member
48% of the people who decided to vote in an election where everyone knew there would be a runoff. If he doesn't win today it won't be close in June.
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