• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Greece to hold referendum on austerity measures 5 July

Status
Not open for further replies.
Could they peg the value initially for say a month to avoid immediate inflation, and then switch to floating / currency exchange afterward? This would help to get some price stability going.

That's part of the measures that Brazil took once it adopted the Real. Initially it was pegged to the dollar.

Going back to those times makes for a fun graph.
brazil-inflation-cpi.png
we unpegged it in 99 (which was generally considered A Bad Move because we shoulda done it way earlier, but w/e). This happened:

mammoth spike in 2003 was the market telling us how much it loved our electing of a "leftist" president.

Still would be hard pressed to find anything close to the 15+ years that the FMI paper suggested staying the course would take.
 

ElTorro

I wanted to dominate the living room. Then I took an ESRAM in the knee.
I was wondering that if Greece misses the payment today, then why would the referendum hold any weight? But if the "real" default is month(s) away, then I guess the referendum really does have a point.

Yesterday was also the deadline for the 2nd bailout program, not just for the IWF payment. That program is now expired. The proposal that the referendum was about unlocking the remaining funds in that 2nd program. But since that program has now expired for good, the referendum is more or less useless.

At the very least, the meaning of that referendum is now undefined and subject to everyone's interpretation.
 

Arksy

Member
Saw a comment by Varoufakis saying he will sue to stop them being forced out of the Euro. I don't know why he's so desperate to stay in the Euro, nor why he seems to think that the laws matter, they'll force him out legal or not. Just like they bailed Greece out despite the fact that it was explicitly prohibited in the treaties.
 
The chief of Austria's central bank (who sits on the ECB governing council) has called the impending non-payment of the IMF funds a "delay" rather than a "default".
I think technically, that's accurate. Greece has gone into arrears with the IMF, and is therefore no longer able to access further IMF funds until those arrears are paid.

The likelihood of those arrears actually being paid without some sort of bailout from Eurozone creditors is like zero.

----

Also, as a general note to all, this thread is sometimes as much of a circus as the situation it discusses, which makes it hard enough to follow as is. So in future, please don't post extraneous (e.g. a tweet calling Christine LaGarde a bitch) and/or conspiratorial nonsense from a random twitter account or unsourced site that adds nothing.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Saw a comment by Varoufakis saying he will sue to stop them being forced out of the Euro. I don't know why he's so desperate to stay in the Euro, nor why he seems to think that the laws matter, they'll force him out legal or not. Just like they bailed Greece out despite the fact that it was explicitly prohibited in the treaties.

If they force Greece out, then the next country to hit a bump will be facing a potential exit too as far as the markets will be concerned. Every time a country will be in a difficult position economically, people will think "are they the next to be kicked out?" and the people internally will freak out thinking that they will have no choice but to accept the same kind of austerity if they want to stay. Really, the EU is mired with problems that will prevent it from lasting. If it can't keep Greece, it won't be able to stop the union from disintegrating.
 

Arksy

Member
If they force Greece out, then the next country to hit a bump will be facing a potential exit too as far as the markets will be concerned. Every time a country will be in a difficult position economically, people will think "are they the next to be kicked out?" and the people internally will freak out thinking that they will have no choice but to accept the same kind of austerity if they want to stay. Really, the EU is mired with problems that will prevent it from lasting. If it can't keep Greece, it won't be able to stop the union from disintegrating.

The question is, how long are they willing to suffer for their absurd dream of a nation called Europe?
 

chadskin

Member
Greece will not get a cent in new eurozone bailout loans while Alexis Tsipras and Yanis Varoufakis remain in power, because Germany will block any such deal, one of Europe’s most influential politicians has told The Times.

“Today there is the question of do we trust Tsipras and Varoufakis? The answer is clear to all parties, no,” the senior German conservative said.
The senior German conservative said that Angela Merkel’s ruling Christian Democrat Union (CDU) and its Bavarian allies the Christian Social Union (CSU) would block any request made while the pair, described as “communists”, remained in power.

“In my party the CDU/CSU there would be a lot of colleagues who would vote ‘no’ if Varoufakis and Tsipras are asking. For sure. Because there is simply no trust any more. They say, I am not going to give taxpayers’ money to Greece without a reliable partner,” he said. Referring to Syriza, he added: “We need a reliable partner who wants to do the job.”
“We will do everything to get a ‘yes’. Then we will need a new government, then we have to implement measures,” he said.

The politician revealed that the socialist Martin Schulz, the president of the European parliament, was involved in secret talks, possibly including Mr Tsipras — whom he sees as a moderate — to “split the Syriza movement”.

The aim was to create a “technical government” as a precondition for a new EU bailout, incorporating moderate MPs in Syriza to avoid new elections.

In the event of a “no” vote and Syriza continuing to hold the reins of power, the German conservative said, “it’s over” and Greece would have to leave the euro after defaulting on ECB loans on July 20. “We will talk about a humanitarian rescue program but not an additional [bailout],” he said.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...ess-tsipras-goes/story-fnb64oi6-1227422961480
 

Piecake

Member
This might have been already posted, but I think that this quote rings pretty true

[Former Italian prime minister Mario] Monti told me that, when he was Prime Minister and visited Barack Obama at the White House, Obama admitted to being at a loss to know "how to engage Merkel on matters of economic policy." Obama asked his advice, and Monti replied, "For Germans, economics is still part of moral philosophy, so don’t even try to suggest that the way to help Europe grow is through public spending. In Germany, growth is the reward for virtuous economics, and the word for ‘guilt’ and ‘debt’ is the same."

http://www.vox.com/2015/6/30/8871981/germany-angela-merkel-greece
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
The question is, how long are they willing to suffer for their absurd dream of a nation called Europe?

Who? Greece? Greece could basically mint its own currency and trade with Russia and all and still have to be kicked out of the EU. There is nothing to lose by staying, other than being kicked out. So either the EU kicks Greece out, or they don't, but to kick them out because they default is going to doom the EU.
 
Subscriber only, do they not say who the CDU/CSU politician is? There have been more and more hardliners on this topic, it's not surprising.

Also, calling Schulz a socialist is quite extreme.

Guardian had already floated comments earlier today that the bundestag would cockblock anything of the sort. Add Merkel's latest moves and it isn't much of a stretch to say that it is most likely correct.

Im guessing that Schulz is as much of a socialist as Tsipras is a communist?
 

chadskin

Member
Subscriber only, do they not say who the CDU/CSU politician is? There have been more and more hardliners on this topic, it's not surprising.

Also, calling Schulz a socialist is quite extreme.

Ha, they must've put that behind the paywall since I was able to access it without a subscription earlier. It's the same as this The Times piece which is also (mostly) behind a paywall.

And no, they don't mention the politician by name.
 
A couple of things real quick, on mobile atm.
- As i said before it becomes more obvious and expected that this goverment is a persona non grata for the EU bureaucrats. The pro-austerity greek lobby alongside corrupted greek media have their plan to unsurp and put Potami's leader alongside PASOK/ND yes- men in Syriza's place. FUD is being spread like wildfire. Case in point:
ttt.jpg

Dragadakis denies telling Tsipras to vote yes, contrary to what greek media reported.He also denies asking for the referendum to not take place and notes that he has bern misquoted.


- Nato's general secretary is opposed to a Greek defence budget reduction
The geopolitical impact of the Greek crisis is also a concern. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Tuesday that Greece should not make cuts in its defense spending and has played an important role in southern Europe as a NATO member
http://www.ekathimerini.com/198756/article/ekathimerini/news/merkel-against-pre-poll-negotiations-obama-says-crisis-should-not-be-major-shock
He would know a think or two on the matter more than the bureaucrats methinks...

- I saw a brief mention of this above: imho Yugoslavian industry was a threat to German infustry so of course german politicians would endorse that war and dismantling in any way they could.
 

Syriel

Member
Saw a comment by Varoufakis saying he will sue to stop them being forced out of the Euro. I don't know why he's so desperate to stay in the Euro, nor why he seems to think that the laws matter, they'll force him out legal or not. Just like they bailed Greece out despite the fact that it was explicitly prohibited in the treaties.

No one really needs to "force" Greece out of the euro.

Greece will just naturally run out of money and if it doesn't have a source of new euros and hasn't switched to a new currency...it will be bankrupt.
 

Aureon

Please do not let me serve on a jury. I am actually a crazy person.
This might have been already posted, but I think that this quote rings pretty true
[Former Italian prime minister Mario] Monti told me that, when he was Prime Minister and visited Barack Obama at the White House, Obama admitted to being at a loss to know "how to engage Merkel on matters of economic policy." Obama asked his advice, and Monti replied, "For Germans, economics is still part of moral philosophy, so don’t even try to suggest that the way to help Europe grow is through public spending. In Germany, growth is the reward for virtuous economics, and the word for ‘guilt’ and ‘debt’ is the same."


http://www.vox.com/2015/6/30/8871981/germany-angela-merkel-greece

That's basically saying "Merkel is a complete incompetent and the main cause of the depression lasting so long and being so harsh".
I like bashing Merkel and the rest of the austerity-peddling ilk as much as the next guy.. but holy shit. This is basically saying "German economics understands absolutely nothing of how macroeconomics works"
 
That's basically saying "Merkel is a complete incompetent and the main cause of the depression lasting so long and being so harsh".
I like bashing Merkel and the rest of the austerity-peddling ilk as much as the next guy.. but holy shit. This is basically saying "German economics understands absolutely nothing of how macroeconomics works"

Yes, naive to the extreme. Far more likely to be the exact opposite.
 

wsippel

Banned
That's basically saying "Merkel is a complete incompetent and the main cause of the depression lasting so long and being so harsh".
I like bashing Merkel and the rest of the austerity-peddling ilk as much as the next guy.. but holy shit. This is basically saying "German economics understands absolutely nothing of how macroeconomics works"
Yep. That's why Germany's economy is dead and we're about to default. Oh, wait...
 

Piecake

Member
That's basically saying "Merkel is a complete incompetent and the main cause of the depression lasting so long and being so harsh".
I like bashing Merkel and the rest of the austerity-peddling ilk as much as the next guy.. but holy shit. This is basically saying "German economics understands absolutely nothing of how macroeconomics works"

Well, it is kind hard not to have that understanding when Germany is demanding austerity from Greece when austerity makes no macroeconomic sense and has proven not to work, and Germany continually admonishes Greece and Greeks for their moral failings.

Yes, naive to the extreme. Far more likely to be the exact opposite.

Not really. Germany is weakening itself by demanding other nations take austerity measures.
 
That's basically saying "Merkel is a complete incompetent and the main cause of the depression lasting so long and being so harsh".
I like bashing Merkel and the rest of the austerity-peddling ilk as much as the next guy.. but holy shit. This is basically saying "German economics understands absolutely nothing of how macroeconomics works"

I'd like to assume she's playing dumb cause clearly this is all working out fairly well for the German economy, but most conservative politicians in the developed world seem to legit believe in austerity as the solution to recession/depressions. I don't think, for example, David Cameron has any clue how depression economics work, and that makes me really skeptical he knows how macroeconomics work since that is like the central plank of macro; the "why" of having any control over any of it.

It's certainly not limited to conservative politicians, but they overwhelmingly like to just choose another economist that happens to agree with whatever policy they want to push, despite reams evidence that the research that economist is doing is deeply flawed.
 
Not really. Germany is weakening itself by demanding other nations take austerity measures.

They saved their own bank by unloading its fuckup on someone else's shoulder, then kept looting the fall guy for all they could. To add to that, they benefit from the ballast-like effect that an economic cripple has on keeping the euro low.

I can see how they might eventually break the camel's back, but so far? They've done a pretty damn good job of serving their own interests.
 

East Lake

Member
Well, it is kind hard not to have that understanding when Germany is demanding austerity from Greece when austerity makes no macroeconomic sense and has proven not to work, and Germany continually admonishes Greece and Greeks for their moral failings.



Not really. Germany is weakening itself by demanding other nations take austerity measures.
I think it's more that they understand what needs to be done it's just that despite the quote right now Merkel chooses to frame issues through delusional moral argument. They have to be stupid beyond belief to think Greece will climb out of this no matter what happens on Sunday.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
No one really needs to "force" Greece out of the euro.

Greece will just naturally run out of money and if it doesn't have a source of new euros and hasn't switched to a new currency...it will be bankrupt.

So it would switch to a new currency while remaining in the union.

edit: Yes, Austerians see spending as sin, austerity as salvation.

edit2: Meanwhile, in Australia

Guess Who IMF Says Needs Fiscal Stimulus?

As Australia grapples with the unwinding of its biggest-ever resources investment boom, the government is tightening its purse strings rather than helping shore up economic growth.

Even that arbiter of fiscal soundness, the International Monetary Fund -- scolder of Greece -- says Australia should be opening its pocketbook for public investment.

The IMF did so much damage through its stupid recommendations, would have been nice to hear that some years ago. Wonder what they would say about Canada.
 

Piecake

Member
They saved their own bank by unloading its fuckup on someone else's shoulder, then kept looting the fall guy for all they could. To add to that, they benefit from the ballast-like effect that an economic cripple has on keeping the euro low.

I can see how they might eventually break the camel's back, but so far? They've done a pretty damn good job of serving their own interests.

Yet Europe is still mired in economic malaise while America has largely recovered. Just because Germany pursued its own interests doesnt mean that those were the best economic policies for itself.

I think it's more that they understand what needs to be done it's just that despite the quote right now Merkel chooses to frame issues through delusional moral argument. They have to be stupid beyond belief to think Greece will climb out of this no matter what happens on Sunday.

Germany's issue is that it advocates for an economic model that can't be universally adopted and isnt suited for all circumstances. Every nation can't have a trade surplus. And it is painfully clear that anti-debt and an obsession with inflation isnt the correct course for an economy during an recession.

They would benefit Europe and benefit themselves if they began consuming more, but they aren't willing to do that because of their obsession with debt and inflation. That is stalling German and European growth.
 
Maybe you should educate yourself before spouting nonsense. The Hartz program had massive social spending cuts.

He's pointing out that implementing austerity outside of a recession is drastically different from implementing it during a recession.

Also lol hartz. Why did he resign again?
 

Aureon

Please do not let me serve on a jury. I am actually a crazy person.
Maybe you should educate yourself before spouting nonsense. The Hartz program had massive social spending cuts.

Nonsense?

What i'm talking about is that during a recession, an economy needs stimulus, NOT austerity.
And Germany, during the world-Depression\Recession of 2007, didn't do any stimulus, and actively fought for OTHER PEOPLE to do austerity, while doing next to none at home (Not that it would've helped, it would've made things even worse)

You replied pointing out germany did some austerity in 1996-2005, which isn't only irrelevant to the discussion, but is also false:
1d30c11b0b.png

if an average of 3% gdp deficits is "massive cuts" and "austerity" - during a boom period, nonetheless - perhaps you may want to think what the 3% SURPLUS asked of Greece is.

And may want to ponder that it pretty much looks like Italy's in the same period:
4d6478cdb9.png
 

Joni

Member
The Argentinian peso is neither backed by nor pegged to the dollar (or is no more so than any other currency traded on global markets which can be exchanged for the dollar by central banks to smooth exchange fluctuations), and has not been since 2002.
So you at least agree with the assesment that Argentina helped hold up its new currency for ten years, something Greece might not be able to do. You haven't explained at all how you think Greece will make the switch and make sure the market doesn't devalue its currency.
 

Syriel

Member
So it would switch to a new currency while remaining in the union.

And if Greece switches to a new currency...it is no longer using the euro.

And there's no forcing there. It would be a decision made by Greece (out of necessity) but not out of a legal maneuver to "force" Greece off the euro.
 

Dalthien

Member
And if Greece switches to a new currency...it is no longer using the euro.

And there's no forcing there. It would be a decision made by Greece (out of necessity) but not out of a legal maneuver to "force" Greece off the euro.

Ether_Snake is talking about Greece being forced out of the European Union, not about them being forced off of the Euro currency. Two very different things, and there are already a number of countries that are part of the EU that don't use the Euro for their currency.
 

Syriel

Member
Ether_Snake is talking about Greece being forced out of the European Union, not about them being forced off of the Euro currency. Two very different things, and there are already a number of countries that are part of the EU that don't use the Euro for their currency.

Ah, that's the confusion then. My post (and the post I was responding to) were talking about the euro and not the EU. Since he was quoting that post, I assumed he was also talking about the euro rather than EU membership.
 
Come on Greece just say no. The future doesn't exist, don't let a bunch of technocrats who gamble on the non-existent persuade you otherwise.
 

SmoothBrain

Member
Germany hasn't actually implemented austerity at home.

Of course we did. This is the reason why infrastructure, education and culture are neglected while we have to pay higher taxes at the same time. The next generation (i.e., mine) has to work until 67, otherwise there will be hugh cuts on the pension. The pension itself is losing value, as the rate to counter inflation and increasing living expenses has been lowered. We are living austerity.

The austerity was harsh for Greece, yes, but at the end of 2014 an end was in sight with a growth of 0,7% I believe. To be honest, at this point, I couldn't care less about Greece. I'm sorry for the people who have to shoulder everything, because me and my family can relate to the position.

However, being displayed as nazis and the cry out to pay reparations (over 300 billion btw., which would've paid the whole debt + some more) for the second world war amongst other things...

This is also why a referendum is the wrong choice for something of this scale. If Greece is doing one, why not Germany or France, too?
 

Reuenthal

Banned
Of course we did. This is the reason why infrastructure, education and culture are neglected while we have to pay higher taxes at the same time. The next generation (i.e., mine) has to work until 67, otherwise there will be hugh cuts on the pension. The pension itself is losing value, as the rate to counter inflation and increasing living expenses has been lowered. We are living austerity.

The austerity was harsh for Greece, yes, but at the end of 2014 an end was in sight with a growth of 0,7% I believe. To be honest, at this point, I couldn't care less about Greece. I'm sorry for the people who have to shoulder everything, because me and my family can relate to the position.

However, being displayed as nazis and the cry out to pay reparations (over 300 billion btw., which would've paid the whole debt + some more) for the second world war amongst other things...

This is also why a referendum is the wrong choice for something of this scale. If Greece is doing one, why not Germany or France, too?

If austerity implemented on Germany was bad (currently you have 5% unemployment IIRC) then how awful do you think the austerity on bath salts that was implemented on Greece was? The hugely negative results speak for themselves.

Try to think it less with you identifying with the leadership of your country vs Greece. Since after all you seem disappointed with the same leader following much less harsh but similar policy in your country. Do you think Greeks shouldn't hate Merkel and friends? I don't think you personally deserve to be targeted but the German leadership has harmed the livelihoods of millions. Either way flags and protestors aren't important issues, you play the role of useful tool to the same kind of leadership that harms the livelihood of an entire nation and millions by caring about irrelevant bullshit. And putting that over the actual livelihoods of people or quality of economic pollicy.



The austerity was harsh for Greece, yes, but at the end of 2014 an end was in sight with a growth of 0,7% I believe.

The closing of the program discussed this year which means additional austerity were planned for the last year but didn't happen. And there was actually a GDP drop in 2014. It is just that deflation was high enough that in crazy European statistics to show a success story the bigger deflation to GDP drop somehow equals GDP growth. IIRC, it also applies to Portugal GDP growth in 2014 but I might need to recheck that. Don't buy everything that is sold to you. In this year a higher surplus target would have meant even higher measures with any goverment, not that I like the syriza goverment in particular.

The quality of the statistics matter more, and big enough deflation + GDP decline are negative and not positive statistics.

http://countryeconomy.com/gdp/greece
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft...1&c=174&s=NGDPD,NGDPDPC,PPPGDP,PPPPC&grp=0&a=
( smaller GDP in 2014 than 2013)
 

d9b

Banned
No one really needs to "force" Greece out of the euro.

Greece will just naturally run out of money and if it doesn't have a source of new euros and hasn't switched to a new currency...it will be bankrupt.
This.

( Syriel just wanted to say I've enjoyed your posts and find them very informative)


...


Personally, I think it's pretty evident that Tsipras and Verufuckis are nothing but arrogant amateurs. Don't know, maybe Putin will finance Greece for the next 25 years.

Greeks are talking about national pride and such bullshit, I think it's time to grow up Greece, your country is in a dire situation and you owe shit loads of money to other European countries, maybe it's time to act and do whatever needs to be done to fix it... Sort out corruption, taxes, change of lifestyle, etc.
Unless, you want your country to become an anus of Europe (even more than it already is, and I'm not just talking geographically).

Anyway, good luck Athens, you'll fuckin need it!

P.S. Apologies for my use of language, but it's getting annoying how Greeks are blaming everybody else but themselves. Also, some of the conspiracy theories are honestly ridiculous.
 

Reuenthal

Banned
This.

( Syriel just wanted to say I've enjoyed your posts and find them very informative)


...


Personally, I think it's pretty evident that Tsipras and Verufuckis are nothing but arrogant amateurs. Don't know, maybe Putin will finance Greece for the next 25 years.

Greeks are talking about national pride and such bullshit, I think it's time to grow up Greece, your country is in a dire situation and you owe shit loads of money to other European countries, maybe it's time to act and do whatever needs to be done to fix it... Sort out corruption, taxes, change of lifestyle, etc.
Unless, you want your country to become an anus of Europe (even more than it already is, and I'm not just talking geographically).

Anyway, good luck Athens, you'll fuckin need it!

P.S. Apologies for my use of language, but it's getting annoying how Greeks are blaming everybody else but themselves. Also, some of the conspiracy theories are honestly ridiculous.

Anus of Europe, plus the same old pointless platitudes and bullshit instead of substance and facts. Wow, really high quality discourse here.
 

oti

Banned
This.

( Syriel just wanted to say I've enjoyed your posts and find them very informative)


...


Personally, I think it's pretty evident that Tsipras and Verufuckis are nothing but arrogant amateurs. Don't know, maybe Putin will finance Greece for the next 25 years.

Greeks are talking about national pride and such bullshit, I think it's time to grow up Greece, your country is in a dire situation and you owe shit loads of money to other European countries, maybe it's time to act and do whatever needs to be done to fix it... Sort out corruption, taxes, change of lifestyle, etc.
Unless, you want your country to become an anus of Europe (even more than it already is, and I'm not just talking geographically).

Anyway, good luck Athens, you'll fuckin need it!

P.S. Apologies for my use of language, but it's getting annoying how Greeks are blaming everybody else but themselves. Also, some of the conspiracy theories are honestly ridiculous.

I'd like to point out what a great discussion we're having here in this thread. Your post is an exception. Go the BILD forums or something.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom