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Greece to hold referendum on austerity measures 5 July

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Akyan

Member
Since I'm a bit clueless about national economies I have to ask: What difference does it make to the creditors if they cut the debt or if Greece defaults? Seems like they'd lose the money anyway.

The theory goes that if they cut a portion of the debt then they wouldn't lose all of their money as the remaining debt would become affordable for Greece to repay. A full on default may mean the eurozone countries lose everything, though in practice it may just end up getting a issuer imposed haircut of some kind.

To be honest, it's all a bit wild west....
 

Hammer24

Banned
Since I'm a bit clueless about national economies I have to ask: What difference does it make to the creditors if they cut the debt or if Greece defaults? Seems like they'd lose the money anyway.

It doesn´t make an economical difference, but a political one.
Many European leaders promised their electorate that they would get the money back. If the money doesn´t come back its important to them, if they would get blamed for it.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Since I'm a bit clueless about national economies I have to ask: What difference does it make to the creditors if they cut the debt or if Greece defaults? Seems like they'd lose the money anyway.

If they cut the debt they make it " manageable " if they cut enough, and keep their strings attached. If Greece defaults it does whatever it wants.
 

Theonik

Member
Hmm, from the text you quoted, it could also be read in a way like: they used the real ones, but without our consent and/or without paying us for them.
That was my attempt at translating. Yes they are pissed at them being shared without their consent and about the results being misrepresented but are very careful not to be specific, I suppose since they intend to sue them.
 

Aureon

Please do not let me serve on a jury. I am actually a crazy person.
If you disagree with me, you're like a completely unrelated unpopular type of person. That's how that sounds. Things are not that black and white, and it should serve anyone well not to overestimate what they know.

That said, it doesn't seem to me either that austerity will save the Greek economy.

What i mean is that you're denying data.
Whatever model was used in the 2010-2011 IMF&Co projections, it failed entirely and utterly, in every single environment.
Greece_Comparison_UR_projections_IMF_Okun.jpg


There's many categories of people who deny data, none of them good. Austerity peddlers and climage change deniers are two of them.
 

Hammer24

Banned
If Greece defaults it does whatever it wants.

I would say, that´s oversimplifying things. There are some debts you simply cannot default on if you want to have any chance to return to the capital markets within the next decade. So no, in reality the debt will never 100% go away.
 

ElTorro

I wanted to dominate the living room. Then I took an ESRAM in the knee.
I would say, that´s oversimplifying things. There are some debts you simply cannot default on if you want to have any chance to return to the capital markets within the next decade. So no, in reality the debt will never 100% go away.

Yes. Unless you want to become an enclave with no imports and no access to the capital market, essentially a version of North Korea, you can't just ignore every rule of international collaboration.
 

tokkun

Member
Austerity has been throughly debunked as a viable economic theory for recovery during a recession.

The end goal of Greece's creditors is reduction in debt, not economic growth. People often conflate the two, but they're not the same.

Greece's economy may shrink, but if the reduction in tax revenue based on GDP is less than the savings from spending reduction and revenue from better enforcement of tax laws, debt is still reduced. Conversely, Greece could try to spend its way to growth, but if they are spending more than the increase in tax revenue, their debt is just going to increase.

The elephant in the room here is that many still doubt Greece's ability to actually collect taxes. The former head of the tax collection agency just stated that Greece is losing about 6% of GDP to tax evasion relative to what happens in most other countries:
http://www.businessinsider.com/gree...theoharis-explains-tax-evasion-problem-2015-7

That makes a "spend your way out of debt" strategy much riskier in Greece than elsewhere.
 

Aureon

Please do not let me serve on a jury. I am actually a crazy person.
The end goal of Greece's creditors is reduction in debt, not economic growth. People often conflate the two, but they're not the same.

Yes, and that's the absurd fact.

you can't just "Reduce" sovereign debt. No country can actually repay it's debt - what countries do is grow the economy faster than the debt.

Debt stays 'good' if the country is growing it's gdp, so it can pay interests and re-issue debt for the foreseeable future.
Growing the economy is one and the same with being able to make good on the country's debt.
 
What i mean is that you're denying data.
Whatever model was used in the 2010-2011 IMF&Co projections, it failed entirely and utterly, in every single environment.
Greece_Comparison_UR_projections_IMF_Okun.jpg


There's many categories of people who deny data, none of them good. Austerity peddlers and climage change deniers are two of them.

In my last post I object to your view that this problem, or any other, can be explained by a model in which there is a camp of good guys, who subscribe to the truth, and a camp of liars, who deny the truth. Your assertion was "Austerity has been throughly debunked as a viable economic theory", which is not proven by posting some sourceless excel graph which I had to google to find some description about. Turns out it is someone's projection versus the IMF's.

It's difficult not to be under the impression that you seem to be trying to declare something to be Official Data, and then denounce anyone who disagrees with you as Deniers, who are eo ipso wrong, in lieu of proposing substantial arguments.

I would point out the benefit of doing the latter in stead may a good debate in which everyone learns.
 

Aureon

Please do not let me serve on a jury. I am actually a crazy person.
True, but as tokkun said it only works as long as you´re able to grow taxes at the same rate as your spending.

Tax evasion isn't a financial problem, it's a morality problem.

You want 34% of the gdp on taxes? You raise them. Tax Evasion or not.
There'll be inefficiencies and morality issues, but there's no reason to believe double gdp isn't double taxes, if not more - rampant tax evasion or not.

Also, it should be said that for all their efforts and campaigns and blackmails, the 'creditors' haven't seen a dime out of Greece. Despite all the best efforts and IMF plans, there has been no primary surplus in the four years before 2015 - and that's because the cuts to spending made the economy collapse by a bigger percentage than the money they saved, resulting in a net LOSS.

In a zero-bound economy (Read: depressive crisis), austerity makes the gdp/debt ratio worsen, not get better. We have more or less conclusive data on this.

In my last post I object to your view that this problem, or any other, can be explained by a model in which there is a camp of good guys, who subscribe to the truth, and a camp of liars, who deny the truth. Your response is to put me in the bad camp, even though my expressed opinion is completely incompatible with that, and to prove your supposed truth ("Austerity has been throughly debunked as a viable economic theory") by posting some sourceless excel graph which I had to google to find some description about. Turns out it is someone's projection versus the IMF's.

It's difficult not to be under the impression that you seem to be trying to declare something to be Official Data, and then denounce anyone who disagrees (or in my case agrees) with you as Deniers, who are eo ipso wrong, in lieu of proposing substantial arguments.

I would point out the benefit of doing the latter in stead is a good debate in which everyone learns.

I was using the "You" as i was using it in the post you quoted.

The graph is one of many, but if you prefer, i'll limit myself to some sources of austerity supporters turning around:
http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/its-official-austerity-economics-doesnt-work
http://www.theguardian.com/business...estimated-damage-austerity-would-do-to-greece

I don't claim i, or "My camp", whoever that is, has "Truth". I claim there's been enough data collected on the theory of expansive austerity, or "restored market confidence through austerity",
The theory of expansive austerity is that a reduction in government spending during a crisis will make the economy better through increased confidence; the data for the last years, for example:
010615krugman2-tmagArticle.png
is pretty clear on this.
There's a very real correlation between government spending and economy growth, both in the positive and in the negative spaces.

There's also that once the predictions of a theory come completely off-base, the theory is generally discarded - this isn't happening because politicians aren't very good at mea culpas, and will fight to the death for something demonstrably false if they've endorsed it enough.
 

LJ11

Member
It's hard to not pile on debt, public or private, when trade imbalances persist. This is a balance of payments issue. Greeks piled on public debt, while other members piled on the private side. As long as trade imbalances are skewed, so will the debt.
 
Proper report available

IMF says Greece needs extra €50bn in funds and debt relief
Larry Elliott Economics editor

The International Monetary Fund has electrified the referendum debate in Greece after it conceded that the crisis-ridden country needs €50bn (£35bn) of extra funds over the next three years and large-scale debt relief to create “a breathing space” and stabilise the economy.

With three days to go before a knife-edge referendum, the IMF revealed a deep split with Europe as it warned that Greece’s debts were “unsustainable”.

Fund officials said they would not be prepared to put a proposal for a third Greek bailout package to the Washington-based organisation’s board unless it included both a commitment to economic reform and debt relief.

According to the IMF, Greece should have a 20-year grace period before making any debt repayments and that final payments should not take place until 2055.

The IMF’s analysis will be seized upon by Alexis Tsipras, the Greek prime minister, who has been insisting that he will only agree to tough new austerity measures if Greece is granted debt relief.

In a strong message to European leaders, the IMF said they would need to find extra money for Greece following the marked deterioration in the state of the economy since Tsipras’s Syriza coalition took over at the start of the year.

“Very signficant changes in policies and in the outlook since early this year have resulted in a substantial increase in financing needs. Altogether, under the package proposed by the institutions to the Greek authorities, these needs are projected to reach about €50bn from October 2015 to the end of 2018, requiring new European money of at least €36bn over the three-year period.

Guardian,
 
...we might get an IMF report saying that Greece flat-out needs debt forgiveness and a 50 billion bailout in a bit, so y'all might wanna hold onto your hats.

Guardian will bring the full story in a bit.

This seems kinda huge. Even without forgiveness if they had a 20 year grace period that would be enough time to get unemployment down, their economy functioning normally again, and the ability to sell bonds at reasonable rates again to be able to service any debt volume.

Somehow I doubt Merkel will be convinced though.
 

kiguel182

Member
Austerity has been throughly debunked as a viable economic theory for recovery during a recession.

If you still believe it, you're no better than a climate change denier.

The problem is even when the IMF says it, troika and Germany still enforce it.

In Portugal we did it and we are barely better than before. And we followed whatever troika said. Didn't do much and I think our debt even increased.

Germany is like "we did it so everyone should do it" while destroying EU in the process.
 

Aureon

Please do not let me serve on a jury. I am actually a crazy person.
Yes, sorry about that, I responded a little too hastily, so I tried to immediately update my post to what I think still stands.

You're correct in that i claimed i have the data but failed to present it: I think the spending v growth 2010-2013 graph - now that i've posted - is definitely some proof of what i'm saying, though.
 

Aureon

Please do not let me serve on a jury. I am actually a crazy person.
I still don't see how debt relief + austerity isn't just delaying the problem.

Europe needs to grow not just employ cost cutting measures and then end up in the same situation over and over again.

Not having to run primary surpluses would be a great start.
 

ElTorro

I wanted to dominate the living room. Then I took an ESRAM in the knee.
Even if she were convinced, it´d be political suicide for her - her own party would burn her at a stake.

I can't imagine that anyone ever expected Greece to repay all their debts in the given timeframe. The only reason this topic is tabu is because they fear the reaction of the electorate. Picture the title page of the BILD: "Unser Geld is weg!!!11"

When the debt relief happen, and I don't see it not happen, they will sugarcoat it as an interest-free extension over 50-100 years, or some similar crap that is not called a debt relief but in fact is one.

However, we should not only be concerned with Greece's current debt but also with it's potential new debts. A debt relief would likely give them access to bank credits again, and the worst thing that could happen is another decade of massively unbalanced budgets.
 

petran79

Banned
Sadly, in Greece its more than that.
When the tax collector gets death threats and unpaid taxes have accumulated to a double digit billion Euro sum, its more than that.

Tax evasion comes mainly from private sector, not civil cervants

My parents are both public education teachers and I am paid through EU funds to work as part-time teacher as well.
State knows inside-out what we have and earn and we are taxed accordingly. We have to bring papers for every sum during tax collection.
Doctors, lawyers and others find ways to hide their earnings and receive reduced or no taxes.
 

Aureon

Please do not let me serve on a jury. I am actually a crazy person.
Guess they should take some of that personal responsibility that they keep harping on about.

#lowblow

She's a politician, spin it.
I don't care how hard you spin it, or what talk you talk - the important part is walking the walk.

Full repayment of greece's debt is not happening. Anybody in the field that claimed it was in the last five years was either incompetent, or more likely, lying.
 

Faddy

Banned
...

There's also that once the predictions of a theory come completely off-base, the theory is generally discarded - this isn't happening because politicians aren't very good at mea culpas, and will fight to the death for something demonstrably false if they've endorsed it enough.

It would be very hard for a pro austerity politician to back down because to admit they are wrong is to admit they ruined a countries economy for no benefit. Countries like Ireland and Portugal have the most feverant pro austerity politicians because if the electorate was told undeniably that the cuts imposed did not benefit the country as a whole they would never be elected again.
 

Hammer24

Banned
Tax evasion comes mainly from private sector, not civil cervants.

I know. What I´m trying to point out is not a blame game, but to show that the system is so broken, that its an actual problem for the welfare of the whole country.
If those 70+billion € had been paid, Greece would have been much better off, and the current problems way less serious. And its a problem they can take care of themselves without the need to ask anyone else.
 
You're correct in that i claimed i have the data but failed to present it: I think the spending v growth 2010-2013 graph - now that i've posted - is definitely some proof of what i'm saying, though.

It may be indeed, but before you can say that your assertion is proven, to such an extend,––and, by the way, that the evidence is so widely known,––that anyone disagreeing with the assertion is a liar (because denying is lying too), a lot more work needs to be done. You need huge swaths of data collected by independent researchers (not Eurostat such as the data in this plot), about situations that are as varying as can be imagined, not just Greece but elsewhere and at different times; you also need a much better understanding of sociology and economies than we currently have, and all this data should point towards the conclusion that what you stated is true. Then we can say that austerity advocates are malevolent or deniers, but to do so now is false.

My point was merely about this, not about whether austerity is or isn't a good idea. As far as I'm concerned the EU can sod off out of Greece while there is still some of it left.
 

tokkun

Member

Re-read your own link. Those projected 'unsustainable' debt levels are significantly lower than today's debt levels (118% vs 175%). That is debt reduction. Will they need another bailout or a debt write-off in 2030? Maybe. But those projections are correct, it will be much smaller than than today.

That may be of little solace to the Greek citizen, but I am talking about the incentives of the creditors. I think it is important to keep in mind that this is not just an argument about the effectiveness of policies, but that the two parties are currently acting at cross purposes.
 

Theonik

Member
Tax evasion comes mainly from private sector, not civil cervants

My parents are both public education teachers and I am paid through EU funds to work as part-time teacher as well.
State knows inside-out what we have and earn and we are taxed accordingly. We have to bring papers for every sum during tax collection.
Doctors, lawyers and others find ways to hide their earnings and receive reduced or no taxes.
To add to this. Most people working normal salaried positions would have their earnings written down by their employers, and often the tax paid directly as salary deductions. Of course self-employed professionals and businesses get to fudge their books if they please before getting caught presumably. But taxes are complicated in general everywhere. And with regards to the death threats, I remember stories from people working in the US tax agencies as well. Anyone who thinks this is exclusive to Greece and isn't a common part of every single country in the world is delusional. (Being a taxman is one of the WORST jobs you could have)

Time to bring out the physicist.
How many of them in the Manhattan project own up to atom bombs though.
 

Hammer24

Banned
- New poll in Germany (ARD Deutschlandtrend):

Who´s to blame for the crisis?

68% Greece
4% the other Euro countries
24% both

- tomorrow two big demonstrations planned in Athens, "Yes" in Olympic stadium, "No" on Syntagma Place (Tsipras will speak).
 
Re-read your own link. Those projected 'unsustainable' debt levels are significantly lower than today's debt levels (118% vs 175%). That is debt reduction. Will they need another bailout or a debt write-off in 2030? Maybe. But those projections are correct, it will be much smaller than than today.

That may be of little solace to the Greek citizen, but I am talking about the incentives of the creditors. I think it is important to keep in mind that this is not just an argument about the effectiveness of policies, but that the two parties are currently acting at cross purposes.

Wouldn't the interest rate and repayment rate be a more accurate ways of measure it than the GDP ratio, Greece replaced many of their old loans with other low interest loans.
 

ElTorro

I wanted to dominate the living room. Then I took an ESRAM in the knee.
- New poll in Germany (ARD Deutschlandtrend):

Who´s to blame for the crisis?

68% Greece
4% the other Euro countries
24% both

- tomorrow two big demonstrations planned in Athens, "Yes" in Olympic stadium, "No" on Syntagma Place (Tsipras will speak).

We are really lucky that Germany isn't doing a referendum too.
 
We are really lucky that Germany isn't doing a referendum too.

I'm all for Germany and the other countries also voting on what posture should be adopted on Greece, actually. Democracy for all and stuff.

I mean, since they lied to the populace that it is their tax money saving the greeks and all, might as well give them the choice.

Though i agree that a certain amount should be forgiven, i don't agree with the rest. Greece doesn't have any of their cities destroyed nor bombed to hell, no food, water nor medication, every family burying their dead or missing family members. A country that had virtually nothing but had the ability to succeed if given the opportunity. Greece wants free food, you can't compare the two countries.

You must as well have written "they haven't suffered enough yet".
 
Though i agree that a certain amount should be forgiven, i don't agree with the rest. Greece doesn't have any of their cities destroyed nor bombed to hell, no food, water nor medication, every family burying their dead or missing family members. A country that had virtually nothing but had the ability to succeed if given the opportunity. Greece wants free food, you can't compare the two countries.

Αre you sure?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_war_crimes#Greece
http://faktencheckhellas.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/FCH03-s8.pdf

And that's not counting either the gold theft and loaning from Greece that the 3rd Reich imposed (or counting the civil war that followed that English and the Communists dragged us into and delayed our growth till early 50s)http://www.spiegel.de/international...dence-of-forced-loans-to-nazis-a-1024762.html

Greek polling company is saying that TV media sources have been cooking and misrepresenting their polls.

http://www.gpo.gr/el/component/k2/item/49-ανακοινωση-gpo.html

i am legit shocked
sigh...
 

ElTorro

I wanted to dominate the living room. Then I took an ESRAM in the knee.
I'm all for Germany and the other countries also voting on what posture should be adopted on Greece, actually. Democracy for all and stuff.

I mean, since they lied to the populace that it is their tax money saving the greeks and all, might as well give them the choice.

I am still a big fan of representative democracy, especially when the issue at hand is complex, since voters usually don't bother to inform themselves in a meaningful way.
 
I am still a big fan of representative democracy, especially when the issue at hand is complex, since voters usually don't bother to inform themselves in a meaningful way.

So am i.

Although i've long dropped the pretense that politicians are any different.
 
I say we go to war, it's clear that we still need some sort of field where we can just hash out out quarrels, and soccer clearly isn't doing enough.
 
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