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[Piecake]

Not all graphs are as a % of GDP, they give a range of the crippling austerity that has wiped away the nation-states.

This is a much better graph than the ones you posted if you want to figure out how much austerity took place in each nation. Might have to switch to white gaf to see it.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Not all graphs are as a % of GDP, they give a range of the crippling austerity that has wiped away the nation-states.

Your first two show sharp cuts in spending by both states - not enough to allow them to run surpluses, but drastically reduced deficits. Your third shows four states sharply changing spending - the important part is how the difference in period-changes in debt, not the actual debt (i.e., if I spend 8% in one period and save 1% in the next, the overall drop is 9% points even if my surplus is only very small). The fourth, fifth, sixth, and seventh are expressed in terms of GDP%, which as I've pointed out is misleading.

I mean really, the phrase "lies, damned lies, and statistics" comes to mind rather rapidly.

 

[patapuf]

Are there any graphs inclding the eastern european countries? iirc. those had fairly harsh austerity measure imposed on them as well.

 

[Machspeed007]

What silly graphs, benji. You're having a laugh, right? If you define things in terms of government spending as a percentage of GDP, then austerity can increase government spending as a percentage of GDP if spending drops but GDP drops faster proportionally as a result - which it does. That's the entire reason it doesn't work.

Global government spending is meaningless as austerity doesn't mean 'just cut everything', it means not throwing money in bottomless pits. Like operating that empty train line with 60000Euro/year salaries. If you move that money to school food programs you may end up with the same increase government spending graphs, but still you would have what we commonly call 'austerity' (at least the train operators would rightfully feel that way).

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Global government spending is meaningless as austerity doesn't mean 'just cut everything', it means not throwing money in bottomless pits. Like operating that empty train line with 60000Euro/year salaries. If you move that money to school food programs you may end up the same increase government spending graphs, but still you would have what we commonly call 'austerity'.

This is a stupid post. If you do not, in real terms, reduce your deficit, you are not in austerity. If you spend the same amount, and tax the same amount, and you just change what your expenditure is going on, you have not engaged in austerity. This is just definitionally true.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Problem is, "that friend that's always broke but wearing the hottest Jordan's" is actually part of your family not some stranger on the street. The German and the French want a Unified Europe and as an European, I happen to agree with that. So they bailed out Greece, the problem child, because of the higher agenda and because they are looking into the future hopping the Greeks will look up to that too (unfortunately not just yet, as they do not take responsibility for their own mistakes, and I'm not only talking about the last government of course).

My take on this is that (and this may sound scandalous to some of you) when you have access to easy money, the socialist-marxist ideas take root and this amplifies the problems of living "beyond your means".

You think France and Germany are noble? Welł, the UK contributed billions to these bailouts and we're not even in the Eurozone. We're the true heroes I tell you!

 

[Machspeed007]

This is a stupid post. If you do not, in real terms, reduce your deficit, you are not in austerity. If you spend the same amount, and tax the same amount, and you just change what your expenditure is going on, you have not engaged in austerity. This is just definitionally true.

So, lets se the defficit graphs.

 

[chadskin]

Europe - The Final Countdown

Never was a song more fitting than this one today.

 

[benjipwns]

 

[Machspeed007]

You think France and Germany are noble? Welł, the UK contributed billions to these bailouts and we're not even in the Eurozone. We're the true heroes I tell you!

True Europeans right there!

 

[Deleted member 231381]

So, lets se the defficit graphs.

They're not going to be all on one graph because the scales are different - the UK's deficit will be larger than Greece's because the UK is a larger economy. Do you want me to post all 27, or do you want a specific sample?

 

[Deleted member 231381]

benji, you're getting much worse at this graphs game. That one even shows the austerity you're denying - look at the period-change between 2009 and 2010, and then the one between 2010 and 2011 (also note the correlation between negative period-change and reduced GDP per capita).

 

[maquiladora]

@YanniKouts 11m11 minutes ago

More and more Syriza Ministers hint at imminent agreement, try to paint it as 'inevitable' and 'lesser of two evils'. #Greece

.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Greece has more debt now than it did in the beginning of the crisis thanks to austerity measures tanking their economy.

I think technically it has less nominal debt now, although someone correct me if this is inaccurate. It swapped private creditors for official ones.

It has a higher debt-to-GDP ratio though, as GDP has fallen dramatically from its pre-crisis peak.

 

[KingSnake]

This is actually a great graph. Let's translate it.

Government expenditures 2008 = 2009 >> 2010 > 2011 (austerity measures right there)
Income from taxes 2008 > 2009 > 2010 < 2011 (so tax collection has improved dramatically and/or taxes have increased dramatically despite GDP declining)
GDP: 2008 >> 2009 >> 2010 > 2011 (2008 to 2009 is the crisis impact, but starting from 2009 it's the wonderful side-effect of austerity)

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I think technically it has less nominal debt now, although someone correct me if this is inaccurate. It swapped private creditors for official ones.

It has a higher debt-to-GDP ratio though, as GDP has fallen dramatically from its pre-crisis peak.

Correct on both accounts. Greece's nominal debt has dropped pretty sharply given they've been running at least 2% surpluses for the past several years. The reason their debt to GDP ratio has gone up is because while their nominal debt has dropped by about 13%, their GDP has dropped by about 25%.

 

[Machspeed007]

They're not going to be all on one graph because the scales are different - the UK's deficit will be larger than Greece's because the UK is a larger economy. Do you want me to post all 27, or do you want a specific sample?

Spain, Portugal.

 

[benjipwns]

I'm not denying "austerity" I'm claiming there's no relevant austerity, let alone "crippling" or "crushing" austerity.

Why didn't the Greek government cut down to 2006 spending levels? A 14% temporary cut when your revenues fall 20+% and are only going to get worse isn't going to stop your debt spiral. Especially when you were running deficits in the first place.

I don't think Greece was a burned out hellscape with the entire population starving in the streets at 2006 government spending.

 

[Unknown Soldier]

Europe - The Final Countdown

Never was a song more fitting than this one today.

Ah yes, the band that was so awesome they named a whole continent after them

 

[oti]

Ah yes, the band that was so awesome they named a whole continent after them

As a Greek I am offended.

 

[Theonik]

As a Greek I am offended.

Europe is all about the rape.

 

[EloKa]

Is there one actual example of a euro country that implemented austerity and recovered at all?

Estiona and Latvia
Ireland

Also countries like Spain, Italy or Portugal would be also in a much worse state by now without those austerity measures.

Imho Greece is the only example where austerity doesn't seem to work. You need to fix your fundamental problems before you can start to grow again. Fixing those problems requires a lot of sacrifices but the countries above managed to get them done or are on a definately positive trending way.

People sure seem to believe there are! But I'm not sure they would think that if they lived in those countries.

Well, yeah it is a lot easier to say "Look at it! It works!" when you're not the one who's suffering. But those examples above still show that austerity measures are (maybe) the only way to get your stuff together and become a healthy country for the future

 

[Machspeed007]

I'm not denying "austerity" I'm claiming there's no relevant austerity, let alone "crippling" or "crushing" austerity.

Why didn't the Greek government cut down to 2006 spending levels? A 14% temporary cut when your revenues fall 20+% and are only going to get worse isn't going to stop your debt spiral. Especially when you were running deficits in the first place.

I don't think Greece was a burned out hellscape with the entire population starving in the streets at 2006 government spending.

The point is, you can have 'Austerity' AND increased government spending. Almost everybody's doing it apparently (but Greece).

 

[KingSnake]

I'm not denying "austerity" I'm claiming there's no relevant austerity, let alone "crippling" or "crushing" austerity.

Why didn't the Greek government cut down to 2006 spending levels? A 14% temporary cut when your revenues fall 20+% and are only going to get worse isn't going to stop your debt spiral. Especially when you were running deficits in the first place.

I don't think Greece was a burned out hellscape with the entire population starving in the streets at 2006 government spending.

Maybe if you check the structure of government expenditures you will find the answer yourself.

http://www.oecd.org/greece/48214177.pdf

As a note, crisis and a lot of the austerity measures have an impact in the social protection spending. And not in the way you want.

 

[Machspeed007]

Maybe if you check the structure of government expenditures you will find the answer yourself.

http://www.oecd.org/greece/48214177.pdf

As a note, crisis and a lot of the austerity measures have an impact in the social protection spending. And not in the way you want.

"Compared to other OECD countries,
the Greek government spends a
much smaller portion of resources on
education (8.3% vs. 13.1%), in part
reflecting its smaller school-age
population. It spends a larger share
of resources on social protection,
general public services and defence.
"

I understand that 'crisis' means social protection should be in order but when compared to other European countries (which is meaningful), social protection is higher then average.
Public services should be privatized for efficiency (not all of them of course, but public services in Greece are less privatized than the average). We are only tossing ideas here, I'm not claiming that I have the solution...

 

[benjipwns]

Maybe if you check the structure of government expenditures you will find the answer yourself.

http://www.oecd.org/greece/48214177.pdf

An 60+% cut in defense probably would have been a good addition to the needed significant cuts across the board.

I mean, if we actually wanted to have some austerity rather than rounding errors.

 

[My words exactly!]

http://www.festival4sce.org/en/the-...ity-measures-imposed-by-the-troika-in-greece/

During the four years of the After Troika era (2010-2014), the devastating results of the austerity are incontestable[6]:

index of wages decreased by 23.8% from 108.2% to 82.5% whereas average increase in tax burden[7] on middle incomes (25.000 € to 70.000 € per year) has reached 25%.

Tax on property increased by 514%[8] whereas loss of household income reached 16 bn €[9] during the period 2010-2013 and percentage of over indebted households recently skyrocketed 65%[10].

Additional direct and indirect taxes of more than 2 bn € are expected to cover the financial gap of the national budget of 2014.

At the same time, unemployment rate increased by 133% from 11.9% in 2010 to 27,8% in 2014 and youth unemployment (age range 15-25 years old) has already overreached 60%[11]. Moreover, currently in Greece there are more than 450.000 families with no working members.

The dreadful multidimensional social impact of these policies can be depicted by the following illuminating data:

Suicide rate[12] increased from 26.5% in 2007 to 43% in 2011, a rise of 62.3% before and after crisis. According to the data provided by the Hellenic Statistical Authority, 45.27% of people that committed suicide in 2012 were economically inactive (unemployed, retired, students, housewives, workless). Moreover, the help line for suicide prevention of the NGO Klimaka reports that 35% of people who call for help are unemployed[13]

Children face food insecurity and hunger: according to a survey conducted by the NGO Prolepsis[14] on a sample of 152 schools, during the school year 2012-2013, 27% of pupils experience food insecurity with moderate or severe hunger, 37% experience food insecurity without hunger, 62% cannot always afford high quality or variety in their meals, 32% have reduced portion sizes, whereas only 36% of participants attain food security

In 2013, there were more than 160.000 unprivileged families and more than 110.000 people in need[15] in Greece, having received help from the EU’s “Food Distribution programme for the Most Deprived Persons of the Community”[16].

The official number of uninsured citizens reaches more than 3 million people, representing one third of the country’s population. Added to this, there are 3 more million citizens, such as traders and small businessmen who have closed their businesses due to the crisis and have consequently lost their insurance rights[17].

The dramatic situation that austerity has inflicted on the country is illustrated by the recent incident where an uninsured and unemployed cancer patient died due to political inertia after repetitive and persistent appeals of the Metropolitan Community Clinic at Helliniko[18] to the Ministry of Health, the Minister himself and the Greek Parliament in order to request free access to the public health system to 10 uninsured patients suffering from serious illnesses [19].

Homelessness has risen significantly although there are no data on a country basis survey. Only in Athens, more than 20.000 citizens rely on soup kitchens and housing services supported by the Municipality of Athens[20].

 

[KingSnake]

Estiona and Latvia
Ireland

Both Estonia and Latvia have low debt levels and didn't have euro through the crisis. Also read the articles you linked:

What recoveries they have enjoyed, many economists put down to geography. Christensen said: "If you compare the Baltic states to Bulgaria, which has passed similar austerity measures and has not recovered in any way to the same degree, there is only one real difference and that is, who's your neighbour."

The Baltic states are near the wealthy Scandinavian countries, while Bulgaria sits next to Greece. Latvia does almost 70% of its foreign trade with the Nordics, Germany, Poland and Russia, which have all returned to growth. After a while, money flowing in from exports spilled over into its home market and Latvians started spending again. The Swedish central bank, one of the main central banks of the region, also moved quickly to deal with the financial crisis.

Christensen said: "I am quite sceptical about the idea that [the Baltics] can serve as some kind of model. Luck played quite a big role in this; the fact that these countries have a close financial connection to Scandinavia. You cannot choose not to have austerity, that has clearly been the credo the Baltic governments have lived off; but you need help from the export side or from the financial side, and there has been some of both."

Ireland while in a similar situation with Greece from the debt levels point of view had still access to funding at reasonable prices. ECB was also buying a lot of Irish bonds, doing what Crab said quite often in this thread.

Of course, there are important differences between Ireland and Greece. Austerity was bound to hurt Greece's rigid economy &#8211; one of the least flexible in Europe &#8211; much more than Ireland's, where flexible labor and product markets allowed massive job losses in the housing, construction, and banking sectors to be offset gradually by job gains in other sectors. The Irish economy also benefited from its strong emphasis on exports and close ties with the relatively thriving economies of the United Kingdom and the United States.

An 60+% cut in defense probably would have been a good addition to the needed significant cuts across the board.

I mean, if we actually wanted to have some austerity rather than rounding errors.

Maybe you should call US to propose them that. Or NATO commandment.

 

[maniac-kun]

That's because the major issue is with those soverign debt crises wasn't debt, it was interest rates.



I mean, the investors around the world suddenly realize that no, EU nations all arent as credit worthy as Germany. Interests rates increase, Nations have trouble paying off their now unexpected costs and shit starts to get serious. Not surprising that Greece got its shit pushed in the most considered the nation's interest rate before. Not saying that this was the only factor, but I think it was a major one.

Who the hell could pay that. The economy is full of stupid concepts like this.

 

[Machspeed007]

During the four years of the After Troika era (2010-2014), the devastating results of the austerity are incontestable[6]:

As long as other countries are recovering from 'Austerity' well enough in just a few years, the problem is not only the 'Troika'. The governing political parties of Greece share the same responsibility.

Tax on property increased but people are keeping their houses in the 'unfinished' state for years in order to avoid said taxes (and this is happening for years, not just from the 'crisis' years). Where's the greek government here?

Medical services, school food programs, re-allocating money from inefficient areas to employment generating areas, etc. where's the greek government here?

What recoveries they have enjoyed, many economists put down to geography. Christensen said: "If you compare the Baltic states to Bulgaria, which has passed similar austerity measures and has not recovered in any way to the same degree, there is only one real difference and that is, who's your neighbour."

Don't the Greeks have the largest commercial fleet in the world?

 

[benjipwns]

Maybe you should call US to propose them that. Or NATO commandment.

No way, the U.S. needs an 80% cut in defense/DHS at a minimum.

 

[jakonovski]

Austerity works by jettisoning the weakest out of society. The economy improves because abandoned poors conveniently don't factor into the numbers. It's a sociopathic policy.

 

[Joni]

Maybe you should call US to propose them that. Or NATO commandment.

At one point, Europe should step away from the NATO and the US for a smaller centrally lead European army scaled to the entire union instead of one army per country with way higher overhead.

 

[PdotMichael]

Austerity works by jettisoning the weakest out of society. The economy improves because abandoned poors conveniently don't factor into the numbers. It's a sociopathic policy.

No one was deported in the past years neither in Greece nor other countries. So even the weakest of the weakest will still appear in numbers and statistics.

So that's some high level bullshit.

 

[Theonik]

At one point, Europe should step away from the NATO and the US for a smaller centrally lead European army scaled to the entire union instead of one army per country with way higher overhead.

But we have not since the end of the Cold War. In fact more nations joined NATO since. And a unified EU military budget is very very far off with how little trust there appears to be between EU nations.

 

[East Lake]

As long as other countries are recovering from 'Austerity' well enough in just a few years, the problem is not only the 'Troika'. The governing political parties of Greece share the same responsibility.

Tax on property increased but people are keeping their houses in the 'unfinished' state for years in order to avoid said taxes (and this is happening for years, not just from the 'crisis' years). Where's the greek government here?

Medical services, school food programs, re-allocating money from inefficient areas to employment generating areas, etc. where's the greek government here?

If you're trying to get people to blame the previous Greek government for dropping the ball, I don't know that you'll find any dispute, but a lot of posters here want to deny the creditors are complicit with them. They dumped the money in and hoped the problem would go away. And usually the austerity recoveries people hold up are anything but.

No way, the U.S. needs an 80% cut in defense/DHS at a minimum.

That sounds cool. How quickly should it happen?

 

[Ted Striker]

Tax on property increased but people are keeping their houses in the 'unfinished' state for years in order to avoid said taxes (and this is happening for years, not just from the 'crisis' years). Where's the greek government here?

Unfinished houses get reduced tax rates.

 

[Theonik]

Unfinished houses get reduced tax rates.

And they will cut your electricity.

 

[Machspeed007]

And they will cut your electricity.

Unfinished houses get reduced tax rates.

Well, that seems usually to be the norm then from what I've seen (but with electricity available).

 

[My words exactly!]

An 60+% cut in defense probably would have been a good addition to the needed significant cuts across the board.

I mean, if we actually wanted to have some austerity rather than rounding errors.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=171298463&postcount=1880

 

[Theonik]

Well, that seems usually to be the norm then from what I've seen (but with electricity available).

It's not really that common. If you are caught the risk is quite large.
Since the crisis though construction has pretty much halted.

 

[Unknown Soldier]

As a Greek I am offended.

Woah woah, what you got against the Swedish metal man??

 

[Ted Striker]

Well, that seems usually to be the norm then from what I've seen (but with electricity available).

A house in any state of construction that's connected to the power grid is considered finished and is properly taxed. The houses you mention are unfinished because their owners don't want/luck the necessary funds to finish them. They still pay full taxes.

 

[alstein]

Maybe you should call US to propose them that. Or NATO commandment.

The US military is probably the #1 way minorities/poor move out of the lower class in the US. Cutting the military would be very bad for social mobility.

It saved my life.

BTW, how are Greek military wages? If they're decent, or you at least get some stability- surprised Greeks aren't having many of their best and brightest flock to the military.

 

[benjipwns]

That sounds cool. How quickly should it happen?

2015	815.5
2016	815.5
2017	815.5
2018	734.0
2019	653.2
2020	574.8
2021	500.1
2022	430.1
2023	365.6
2024	307.1
2025	254.9
2026	209.0
2027	169.3

That seems fair.

We can send 10% of the savings to Greece.

 

[M°°nblade]

We still buy Fiat and Seat cars from Italy and Spain, I wouldn't go that far saying that their economies are destroyed. I can't name one product we are buying from Greece, I'll give you that. I can't name one from the last 20 years even.

I buy feta cheese

The point is, you can have 'Austerity' AND increased government spending. Almost everybody's doing it apparently (but Greece).

Well, at least Belgium is severely cutting government spending. They cut defense budget in half, have a roadmap for trimming of the fat (mostly 'administrative' aka political employees')

I found this about Greece's civil services:
http://www.euronews.com/2011/10/03/greek-civil-servants-face-the-austerity-axe/

Here is why Athens is taking the axe to state jobs: Greece&#8217;s public sector employs around 700,000 or 800,000 people. Exact estimates are hard to find. What is certain is the drain this has placed on the small country&#8217;s finances, starting in the 1980s.

Both the left and right in politics used the system, rewarding supporters with jobs. With every political power shift, the public sector grew, as more people were hired.

Haralambos Koutalakis, a lecturer on public administration at Athens University, said: &#8220;Over the years the two big parties have created a large public sector mainly with clientelistic processes of employing people and that is going to be very difficult to change because it requires a whole reorganisation of the way that services are run and of the way that things are done in the public sector.&#8221;

About 20 percent of the working population is some sort of civil servant, in a job that has been guaranteed for life under the constitution. Today&#8217;s plan under the Socialist government is to reduce salaries and staff numbers by 20 percent by 2015. It is looking at putting 30,000 workers into what it is calling a &#8220;labour reserve&#8221;, paying them 60 percent of their salaries for 12 months, while they are supposed to find other work, and then giving them the sack.

The layoffs would be a break with the constitution. This was established a hundred years ago, to end the practice of incoming governments firing employees under the previous one.

The public sector is bloated and inefficient but getting a job in it has been a national prize for decades. While the Greek average monthly wage is around 700 euros, a civil servant starts at 800, and bonuses can push that to 1,300 a month.

Hope you guys sort this out.

All these bloated 'civil servants' employees do nothing but mask the problems. Greece officially has 26% unemployed, but it means little when another 20% is some sort of 'civil servant'.
Apparently, the Greek government doesn't even have exact numbers. Civil servants are 'somewhere' between 800.000 and 1.200.000.
Why is there industry in Greece? Isn't the low income an advantage (like eg. in eastern europe countries). Are there no plans to attract multinationals?

 

[PJV3]

The French helping the Greek government to draft their proposal is a bit worrying, it's going to fucking hurt the people.

 

[Machspeed007]

A house in any state of construction that's connected to the power grid is considered finished and is properly taxed. The houses you mention are unfinished because their owners don't want/luck the necessary funds to finish them. They still pay full taxes.

There seems to be a severely lacking fence industry then, because all the 'unfinished' houses had only the fence roughly 50% finished. But yeah, I'll drop this line of discussion as I cannot provide any scientific data, only my observations and it's off-topic.

 

[Machspeed007]

I buy feta cheese

Not enough added value in producing that unfortunately. I buy it produced locally and is just as good..

 

[Theonik]

Hope you guys sort this out.

Most countries guarantee public employment. That's literally the biggest reason people pick these jobs. Germany does this as well. The reason why it is done is because as administrations change, they would otherwise be able to put people of their interests in these positions firing the people who previously occupied them.