The fact is that at the time of H1/2/3 release, the competition for competent multiplayer shooters on consoles was non existent. Then COD4 came out and the public's taste changed. Now, military shooters are all the rage. Look at the number of media outlets which complained that Halo didn't have ADS.
The market is completely different now compared to when H1/2/3 launched. If a game like Halo 1 style multiplayer launched on consoles today I honestly don't think it would do well commercially.
I disagree. COD 4 was released approx 6 weeks after halo 3. I believe Halo 3 had more time as the most played xbl game throughout its lifetime or if not it was certainly neck and neck. Other popular games such as FIFA and GOW were also around during Halo 3's time at the top.
There is no actual logic to the argument that FPS games need to conform to COD style military shooter mechanics to be successful. To be honest most of the stuff in COD is gimmicky anyway, it doesn't add value to gameplay. As I said Halo was the most popular before it changed and moved in the direction of COD. Nobody knows what would have happened if Halo had stuck to the original formula and further refined it.
I think another factor in COD's popularity is that a new game is released annually with plenty of hype therefore constantly adding to its player base as the average gamer is given the impression its the latest greatest game to own, generating further momentum for the COD bandwagon.
I think its quite naive to assume there is just one market for console fps. My view is that there are a lot of people who like easy simple shooters like COD who will buy and play COD. As has been proven by Halo 4 they will not play halo 4 instead even though it has adopted many game mechanics from COD because COD is the master of its own genre. Halo provided a very popular alternative to CODesque games with a skilful arena shooter, I see no reason why there wouldn't still be a big market for that.
I would go on further to say that I don't think the multiplayer component of a game always has a significant effect on sales. With regard to Halo I think it will continue to sell well due to the popularity of the franchise and how well its marketed. Nobody really knew what Halo 4 multiplayer would even be like as there was no beta yet it still sold extremely well, more because it was a Halo game than on any merit of its gameplay.
Ultimately games are supposed to be fun and the gameplay is what makes or breaks the multiplayer. I don't see a shred of logic in the school of thought that suggests fps games need to follow the COD style of very easy, simple gameplay with a layer of gimmicks on top. If a game has solid gameplay and requires skill therefore adding depth and longevity then providing it can sell enough for people to be exposed to the game I see no reason why it wouldn't be very popular. If developers have this limited impression that they need to make COD style multiplayer to do well it will result in less variety for gamers and more lazy copycat multiplayer experiences.
