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Hearthstone |OT8| Elise's Extremely Irresponsible Field Trip To Un'Goro

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B

Blizzard

Banned
Mobius and pet octopus said:
I just want to point out the stats are probably not nearly as slanted as kripp's "data" of a grand total of 38 games suggests.

There are a ton of factors as to why you might feel like going 2nd has the advantage. Overall I am certain going first is advantaged (perhaps 10-15% range, with 20% being really extreme and not likely). But you're not the first person to say they feel like going second is an advantage even when the statistics suggest the opposite.
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Kripp wasn't the only person posting that. Did you notice zealousd's statistics posted above? He had 30% higher winrate going first in the MSG era over 73 games. Do you still consider that not enough data to judge?

Thanks Dahbomb for the 1-drop input. Maybe I should favor those more in arena draft.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
jrh2 said:
Fuck Dragon Priest in the ass. For some reason I cannot beat this deck with anything in my arsenal.
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Are you aware of the Vicious Syndicate matchup chart to help figure out counters to decks?

http://www.vicioussyndicate.com/drr/matchup-chart-data-reaper-report/

If you're losing a matchup that's favored on that chart, you're probably playing it wrong, which happens even to the pros when they're laddering.

Dragon Priest is something I started out the expansion not understanding at all, but somehow got way better at it. I think it was because I learned how to save my resources to kill the 5/4 Blackwing Corrupter and 5/6 Drakinoid Operative instead of the 2/4 Wyrmrest Agent and 3/6 Twilight Guardian.

That gives you a lot more time to retake board control, which Dragon Priest is not super great at getting back. You can let your health get pretty low too since Dragon Priest doesn't have much reach.
 
M

Mobius and pet octopus

Member
Blizzard said:
Kripp wasn't the only person posting that. Did you notice zealousd's statistics posted above? He had 30% higher winrate going first in the MSG era over 73 games. Do you still consider that not enough data to judge?

Thanks Dahbomb for the 1-drop input. Maybe I should favor those more in arena draft.
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Certainly data from one single person could and almost certainly does contain biases. I think you need more than 73 games but I'm certain a statistician could be more accurate on how many games you need and how randomly selected the data has to be to create an representative sample.
 
B

Blizzard

Banned
Mobius and pet octopus said:
Certainly data from one single person could and almost certainly does contain biases. I think you need more than 73 games but I'm certain a statistician could be more accurate on how many games you need and how randomly selected the data has to be to create an representative sample.
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Maybe. But when two people are posting specific numbers and the response is (instead of say, statistics or specific numbers) to say that those numbers are probably wrong/biased, it's not a very compelling argument as far as I can tell. :p
 
F

fertygo

Member
I still really like MSoG expansion, I personally enjoy the Reno card and Jade, particularly the Shaman card if I'm to be honest, Tuning Shaman into classes that leverage their early game into control game before transition to value deck in later stage is really fun that inline with Shaman hero power and a lot of their card

too bad Shaman right now have everything else, including the most powerful snowball early board

I'd really like new early game card for shaman that replace their current one is more like Devolve, and Jade Lightning card that not dominating early game alone but "hold" enough before mid-stage and you start gameplan to outvalue your opponent

That is something that actually can be regretted from Spirit Claw nerf, Spirit Claw is very powerful right now in deck that have a lot of OP early game card

But in slower Shaman Deck that not use early game minion at all, Spirit Claw is actually just "ok" and not single handedly buy you 2-3 turn like War Axe in Control Warrior, Spirit claw is just "enough" to hold on for slower shaman deck that also need help form other card

When Shaman's OP early game card rotating and they're not print similar type of snowball overstatted card, Spirit Claw is not OP at all.. so I actually kinda prefer Maelstrom Portal that changed but its ok tho. the point is if they not print another problematic aggressive shaman card, I actually like the class direction that started with MSoG cards.
 
M

Mobius and pet octopus

Member
Blizzard said:
Maybe. But when two people are posting specific numbers and the response is (instead of say, statistics or specific numbers) to say that those numbers are probably wrong/biased, it's not a very compelling argument as far as I can tell. :p
Click to expand...

There is no doubt about the data being biased and inaccurate. We just don't know how inaccurate they are. If ZD's shows 30% difference while Kripp's shows 40%, how can you argue otherwise? How is that not a compelling argument?
 
D

Dahbomb

Member
Top 10 cards as rated by GAF users:

Dragonfire Potion
Drakonid Operative
Kazakus
Raza the Chained
Abyssal Enforcer
Aya Blackpaw
Patches the Pirate
Small-Time Buccaneer
Mistress of Mixtures
Kabal Talon Priest


More here if people want to peruse:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...CeY_kejaoGd3WCffy9ga_6kqU/edit#gid=1873619558


Pretty solid list to be honest. I am looking through the card averages and only two cards really come up as being overrated/underrated by GAF as a whole: Solia and Hobart. Jade Claws also feels underrated at 3 average, same for Second Rate Bruiser.
 
D

DyslexicAlucard

Member
A little late to the party, but I just want to say that I think STB (and the Pirate Package in general) will be hit pretty damn hard by that nerf. Honestly, I think people saying it will still be run with one health are in for a surprise. The fact that it can be pinged instead of wasting a Frost Bolt, Wrath, Arcane Blast etc is huge, not to mention its added vulnerability to Maelstrom Portal, Twilight Flamecaller, Fan of Knives, Swipe and Mortal Coil -- all very common cards. Even stuff like Whirlwind and Ravaging Ghoul work well if Control Warrior comes back.

I'm calling it now like I called STB needing the nerf over Patches: you will not see STB with any reasonable frequency within days of this nerf.

jrh2 said:
Holy

Fucking

Shit

when did people start running Curse of Rafaam as anti-Reno tech?

because DAMN that is fucking brilliant and frustrating
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While it's very effective against Reno Mage, that's only one deck and it constitutes a reasonably smallish part of the meta. Yes, it's a very powerful T1 deck, but that card does almost literally nothing against every other deck. For that reason, I think Beneath the Grounds is the far superior counter; not only does it counter all Reno variants (plus other cards like Raza, Kazakus, and Solia), it also has some potential effect in every matchup, even if it isn't nearly as potent.

Blizzard said:
Maybe. But when two people are posting specific numbers and the response is (instead of say, statistics or specific numbers) to say that those numbers are probably wrong/biased, it's not a very compelling argument as far as I can tell. :p
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I mean, you don't need to counter with your own numbers to show skepticism or point out the importance of sample sizes of others'. The burden of proof is on the person making a claim. If someone doesn't think that proof is sufficient, that doesn't mean they need to prove the opposite is true.

Personally, I'm of the opinion that going second is more balanced in Constructed for the reasons stated earlier. However, I also think a sample size of dozens (or even hundreds) from two players is not even close to showing anything substantive. If I were a designer on Team 5, I'd need data from thousands of players and tens of thousands of games before I'd feel even remotely confident in its efficacy.
 
B

Blizzard

Banned
Mobius and pet octopus said:
There is no doubt about the data being biased and inaccurate. We just don't know how inaccurate they are. If ZD's shows 30% difference while Kripp's shows 40%, how can you argue otherwise? How is that not a compelling argument?
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Because one side is offering concrete data, and the other side is presenting a vague argument that the numbers are somehow incorrect. Incorrect in what sense? Biased in what sense? Based on what?

Both 30% and 40% are larger than your extreme 20% example. What precisely are you arguing? I'm not meaning to be rude, and I certainly agree that sample sizes are small, but I think you should clarify what you're trying to suggest/prove.
 
D

Dahbomb

Member
Winrate also spreads more the better the player is at arena as theorized by the Arena number crunchers and statisticians. ZealousD is an above average player in Arena based on those stats and his winrate going first vs second might be more skewered than the average player (who goes like mid 50%ish win rate, lets say 4 wins on average). And Kripp (being the #1 Arena player in NA) has his win rates even more divided.

So this problem is more pronounced the higher you go up in skill bracket is the hypothesis. And of course these are the people who care the most about the imbalance as they are the ones who are affected most by it.
 
M

Mobius and pet octopus

Member
Blizzard said:
Because one side is offering concrete data, and the other side is presenting a vague argument that the numbers are somehow incorrect. Incorrect in what sense? Biased in what sense? Based on what?

Both 30% and 40% are larger than your extreme 20% example. What precisely are you arguing? I'm not meaning to be rude, and I certainly agree that sample sizes are small, but I think you should clarify what you're trying to suggest/prove.
Click to expand...

I've been clear from the start what I have argued. The amount of games kripp's "data" comprises of is very small. It is not going to produce an accurate representative view of the situation. And if these samples were accurate, why are they so different from eachother? 10% is huge.

I have a 77% winrate with rogue right now, with 70~ games. That doesn't mean that rogue deck has a 77% winrate. It is not accurate data.

I don't doubt that going first has a large advantage. 10% is already a fairly large advantage. I'm not really putting a number on how large it is. I am speculating that 20% would be on the extreme end and not likely. But it's definitely not 40%.

Card games have a lot of variables, and way too many to take one person's data and try to draw conclusions to a larger picture.

edit:
I also think that if the gap was anywhere near 40%, blizzard would have acted much much sooner with even bigger changes than they are currently. 40% would be absurd.
 
M

Mobius and pet octopus

Member
Malygos Rogue is still a lot of fun. I threw together a deck tonight and crafted shaku for it. https://hsreplay.net/replay/J5RZK84jkY7Vcp7hiK7q6R (vs renolock)

On turn 8 I drew ~12 cards lol

Double counterfeit coin, plus 2 coins from tomb pillagers, plus double prep, and double fan + drake. Also auctioneer was from the previous turn.

When you start the turn with 5 0 mana cards... it sucks... exactly until you draw auctioneer and then... crazy things happen.
 
S

Sheroking

Member
Mobius and pet octopus said:
I also think that if the gap was anywhere near 40%, blizzard would have acted much much sooner with even bigger changes than they are currently. 40% would be absurd.
Click to expand...

It's 40% for Kripp, who is literally the top <0.01%. Possible the difference is more like 10-20% across the board with people with lower winrates, and it only scales up for people who average 7.5 or more wins.

The problem here is that Kripp isn't just saying "this is a huge problem because my numbers say it is". He's made a compelling, coherent argument for why going second puts you at a huge disadvantage in early game board state and arena is very much about playing on a curve, gaining board and grinding your opponent to death.
 
S

scarlet

Member
I keep looking at hotmeowth's decks, especially his shaman. I have no idea what's his win condition. Malygos + 2 Lightning bolts?
 
M

Mobius and pet octopus

Member
Sheroking said:
It's 40% for Kripp, who is literally the top <0.01%. Possible the difference is more like 10-20% across the board with people with lower winrates, and it only scales up for people who average 7.5 or more wins.

The problem here is that Kripp isn't just saying "this is a huge problem because my numbers say it is". He's made a compelling, coherent argument for why going second puts you at a huge disadvantage in early game board state and arena is very much about playing on a curve, gaining board and grinding your opponent to death.
Click to expand...

It's 40% for kripp across a total of 38 games.

If you read my posts I don't deny that there is an issue.

As for kripp being top .01%, doesn't change the fact that it is an incredibly small sample size.
 
T

The Wizard

Member
Just saw the update. Smart small changes, ranked floors are interesting and I'm curious to see if it creates pockets of off meta fun decks particularly around rank 5. Card balance doesn't strike me as creating the most interesting possibilities but most of the 'value' decks should be getting better and can be fun.
 
S

Sheroking

Member
Mobius and pet octopus said:
It's 40% for kripp across a total of 38 games.

If you read my posts I don't deny that there is an issue.

As for kripp being top .01%, doesn't change the fact that it is an incredibly small sample size.
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It's 38 games in the last season.

This has been an issue for him for at least a year and he's had his statistics back that up the entire time. It's not that small of a sample, and even if it was, there's STRONG game theory backing up why the coin is not a powerful enough equalizer in arena.
 
M

Mobius and pet octopus

Member
Sheroking said:
It's 38 games in the last season.

This has been an issue for him for at least a year and he's had his statistics back that up the entire time. It's not that small of a sample, and even if it was, there's STRONG game theory backing up why the coin is not a powerful enough equalizer in arena.
Click to expand...

I don't know how anyone can argue 38 games is not a small sample.

But once again, I am not arguing that there is not an imbalance between coin and no coin. What is the point of arguing if you're not even going to read my posts on the subject.

edit:
I actually think the issue extends beyond just coin or no coin. Arena is a mode that suffers from curving out being the most consistent way to build and play a draft. They're addressing that issue by increasing the chances of drafting spells which will in turn also reduce the chance that everyone just curves out minions super well. This will also likely impact the disparity between going first and second. I haven't argued once that there is no issue with coin/no coin. I have simple stated I don't think his sample size is large and most people actually agree with me.
 
F

Fersis

It is illegal to Tag Fish in Tag Fishing Sanctuaries by law 38.36 of the GAF Wildlife Act
Dahbomb said:
Top 10 cards as rated by GAF users:

Dragonfire Potion
Drakonid Operative
Kazakus
Raza the Chained
Abyssal Enforcer
Aya Blackpaw
Patches the Pirate
Small-Time Buccaneer
Mistress of Mixtures
Kabal Talon Priest


More here if people want to peruse:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...CeY_kejaoGd3WCffy9ga_6kqU/edit#gid=1873619558


Pretty solid list to be honest. I am looking through the card averages and only two cards really come up as being overrated/underrated by GAF as a whole: Solia and Hobart. Jade Claws also feels underrated at 3 average, same for Second Rate Bruiser.
Click to expand...
Dang, those were spot on.
 
Z

ZealousD

Makes world leading predictions like "The sun will rise tomorrow"
Dahbomb said:
Pretty solid list to be honest. I am looking through the card averages and only two cards really come up as being overrated/underrated by GAF as a whole: Solia and Hobart. Jade Claws also feels underrated at 3 average, same for Second Rate Bruiser.
Click to expand...

Wrathion is probably more overrated than Solia. I know you keep banging on about her but from my experience she's a borderline inclusion in Reno Mage. Some decks run her and others don't. Meanwhile nobody really runs Wrathion in Dragon Priest.
 
F

fertygo

Member
There's 2 school of Reno Mage out there, Burn Reno Mage or Value Reno Mage

Solia is staple in the burn list, recently there's hybrid of both list tho, Sjow and Neirea bring the hybrid list for the prelims, its also had Solia
 
F

Fersis

It is illegal to Tag Fish in Tag Fishing Sanctuaries by law 38.36 of the GAF Wildlife Act
RDU wrote a crazy in depth analysis about one turn of his match against Pavel LINK
 
D

Dahbomb

Member
ZealousD said:
Wrathion is probably more overrated than Solia. I know you keep banging on about her but from my experience she's a borderline inclusion in Reno Mage. Some decks run her and others don't. Meanwhile nobody really runs Wrathion in Dragon Priest.
Click to expand...
Yeah Wrathion is probably more so. The card still isn't bad though.
 
Y

Yaboosh

Super Sleuth
If blizzard isn't killing the dragon tribe when BRM rotates out (and I'm guessing they aren't since they just put in wrathion and DrakOp) then Wild dragon priest will be crazy with all the new dragon cards coming in the next set.
 
W

wiibomb

Member
Solia + Kazakus potion (10) or Blizzard or Flamestrike has been several times my win condition, so I can say Solia is a solid addition to my reno mage deck, definitely won't be taking her out.

Wrathion has been a little less useful, it has its uses as it even has taunt, but often time my opponent has a relatively easy way to deal with it. Still it has been often times a good card draw tech for me when I don't have much options left
 
B

Blizzard

Banned
Dahbomb said:
So this problem is more pronounced the higher you go up in skill bracket is the hypothesis. And of course these are the people who care the most about the imbalance as they are the ones who are affected most by it.
Click to expand...
I can agree that the imbalance is probably more skewed at higher skill levels. This would also make sense with the larger data set posted earlier having a smaller gap.

This is also the reminder of a classic balance question for online games: Do you balance around high level players, "average" players, or a mix? In theory both audiences need to be happy.


About the broader issue, there are multiple data sources of multiple varying sizes that all seem to say the same thing -- coin isn't a good enough balance for the second arena player. Even some people who criticize the statistics may agree with this. This is sort of why I'm surprised by the responses. It feels like one camp is saying, "Here is a variety of data that suggests a problem. In addition, here is some logical reasoning that suggests the same problem." Then the other camp says, "Well the data isn't complete enough and I personally believe, without providing any sources or counter game theory arguments, that the problem is smaller (and I possibly agree that there is a problem)."

That's my feel on the situation, and it's especially odd if those criticizing the sample sizes agree there's a problem. What's the goal of an abstract argument here? To prevent Blizzard from balancing? To calm the community? To merely point out that some numbers aren't absolutely representative of every player, which I don't think anyone is suggesting?

Otherwise...can't we just say, "We agree that a variety of argument(s) and data suggest imbalance. Let's gather and examine even more data to confirm or disprove this theory"?
 
L

Lone_Prodigy

Member
It's actually kind of refreshing to be playing lower ranked games and run into non-T1 decks.

In my last few games I've played Zoolock, some bizarre aggro C'thun Priest (which I thought was Reno until he topdecked a second Holy Nova for lethal), a C'thun Druid (a 9/2 Mana Wyrm that sticks all game is the best), and Control Warrior.

Also a Firelands gave me Fel Reaver the other day. Almost got milled but my opponent couldn't answer it and conceded.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Yaboosh said:
If blizzard isn't killing the dragon tribe when BRM rotates out (and I'm guessing they aren't since they just put in wrathion and DrakOp) then Wild dragon priest will be crazy with all the new dragon cards coming in the next set.
Click to expand...

DrakOp and Kazakus are both basically last hurrahs of an archetype that's rotating out.

Blizzard felt they had more space to make those super powerful since they don't have to worry about them being a longtime thing, both making them less money and making the game more stale.
 
Z

ZealousD

Makes world leading predictions like "The sun will rise tomorrow"
Xanathus said:
lol overload cards are broken in this brawl
Click to expand...

It's only spells that cost health, right? You probably still want to play minions with your mana.

I think healing spells become really good in this brawl. Siphon Soul. Greater Healing Potion. Healing Wave, etc. Really efficient burn like Mind Blast also becomes really good. An OTK Priest running Malygos could work pretty well? I wonder if Velen would cause you to take double damage?
 
W

wiibomb

Member
anything going past turn 5 is worthless, I warn you...

I have won 7 of the 8 brawls I played with my mage, it can burn anyone really fast.

Malygos is way too inefficient and will clog the deck.

EDIT: overload won't really work as minions need to be played for more pressure

EDIT2: woah Call of the Wild on turn 2 is really good
 
Y

Yaboosh

Super Sleuth
thepotatoman said:
DrakOp and Kazakus are both basically last hurrahs of an archetype that's rotating out.

Blizzard felt they had more space to make those super powerful since they don't have to worry about them being a longtime thing, both making them less money and making the game more stale.
Click to expand...


You might be right about that, which would be kind of a shame.
 
X

Xanathus

Member
ZealousD said:
It's only spells that cost health, right? You probably still want to play minions with your mana.

I think healing spells become really good in this brawl. Siphon Soul. Greater Healing Potion. Healing Wave, etc. Really efficient burn like Mind Blast also becomes really good. An OTK Priest running Malygos could work pretty well? I wonder if Velen would cause you to take double damage?
Click to expand...

Lava Shock still works to unload the mana even if you're fully overloaded. Basically stuff like Trogg and Unbound Elemental can do crazy damage if they stick a turn. The thing about overload spells is that their costs are balanced around their overload, but since you don't take health damage from overload they allow you to nuke your opponent without taking too much blow back. That's the reason why spells like Pyroblast isn't actually good in the brawl.
 
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