January 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes February 10th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Hmm, aren't these both kinda high? And especially Xbox significantly higher than last January (like 180% increase YoY)? I mean, I understand that PS4 sold quite well still in January after being supply constrained during its first holidays, but now? There isn't really a reason for people to buy a Playstation now, it they didn't get one in December.
He should find better sources for his channel checks. These figures look totally uninformed.
Cthulhu_Steev
Member
The guy forgot to flip his calendar to January. No biggie.
AstuteClass
Banned
lol at this coming from an Xbox One avatar account. Dude, PS4 has January. Bank on it.
Some might not like it, but the X1 (even with $7 off the $50 off) is getting bested by the PS4:
http://www.amazon.com/best-sellers-video-games/zgbs/videogames/
I've said before, my theory on Nov and Dec's numbers is that everyone who wanted an X1 for the next year or so, ripped Microsoft's hand off for the insane deals they were putting out while they had the chance.
John Bender
Banned
[3DS] 75K
[PS4] 238K
[WIU] 57K
[XB1] 187K
[PS4] 238K
[WIU] 57K
[XB1] 187K
Prototype Viktor
Member
i'm shocked at how high the $100 PSN cards are
ConfusedGamer
Member
[3DS] 88K
[PS4] 218K
[WIU] 59K
[XB1] 196K
[PS4] 218K
[WIU] 59K
[XB1] 196K
shinra-bansho
Member
[PS4] 236K
[XB1] 179K
[3DS] 78K
[WIU] 57K
[XB1] 179K
[3DS] 78K
[WIU] 57K
[3DS] 79K
[PS4] 209K
[WIU] 59K
[XB1] 199K
PS4 & XB1 close due to post holidays momentum, PS4 pulling slightly ahead due to anticipation of new releases. I always underestimate so below are my "what seems to happen" guesses:
-3DS 99K
-PS4 269K
-WIU 89K
-XB1 259K
*sigh* 2014 was a great year for these threads, I miss it already. Looking forward to this years train to get going. Good luck everyone.
[PS4] 209K
[WIU] 59K
[XB1] 199K
PS4 & XB1 close due to post holidays momentum, PS4 pulling slightly ahead due to anticipation of new releases. I always underestimate so below are my "what seems to happen" guesses:
-3DS 99K
-PS4 269K
-WIU 89K
-XB1 259K
*sigh* 2014 was a great year for these threads, I miss it already. Looking forward to this years train to get going. Good luck everyone.
KillerMan91
Member
[3DS] 80k
[PS4] 230k
[WIU] 60k
[XB1] 190k
[PS4] 230k
[WIU] 60k
[XB1] 190k
spatenfloot
Member
PSN cards are always at the top of the list due to people in other countries who want to buy from the US PSN store.
Was just browsing Amazon top sellers after reading some of your posts. Popped onto .uk to see where PS4 and XB1 are at and they are very low now. Not saying I'm surprised, just interesting.
The bundles you can get is also a little nuts. XB1 is "bundurus everywhere" whilst PS4 is like "just buy the console". Not sure if there is anything to read into? Maybe just nothing.
XB1
PS4
The bundles you can get is also a little nuts. XB1 is "bundurus everywhere" whilst PS4 is like "just buy the console". Not sure if there is anything to read into? Maybe just nothing.
XB1
PS4
Orthogonal
Member
[3DS] 75K
[PS4] 230K
[WIU] 50K
[XB1] 185K
[PS4] 230K
[WIU] 50K
[XB1] 185K
So we're two years on from the disastrous Wii U January. How do we feel about the theory that Wii U returns were in part responsible for the low Wii U January 2013 sales figures? That is, some positive sales offset by negative sales in the form of returns.
I still think it's a possible explanation, but I'm not sure if we've seen enough evidence in the sales figures since then to really say for sure one way or the other.
Also, we've not had another holiday bubble like the Wii U had at launch. The PS4/XB1 have continued decent enough sales past their launches.
I still think it's a possible explanation, but I'm not sure if we've seen enough evidence in the sales figures since then to really say for sure one way or the other.
Also, we've not had another holiday bubble like the Wii U had at launch. The PS4/XB1 have continued decent enough sales past their launches.
Darth Smurf X
Member
[PS4] 220K
[XB1] 160K
[3DS] 65K
[WIU] 50K
[XB1] 160K
[3DS] 65K
[WIU] 50K
CorporateClown
Member
[PS4] 213k
[XB1] 171k
[3DS] 92k
[WIU] 61k
[XB1] 171k
[3DS] 92k
[WIU] 61k
SuperSonic1305
Member
Was just browsing Amazon top sellers after reading some of your posts. Popped onto .uk to see where PS4 and XB1 are at and they are very low now. Not saying I'm surprised, just interesting.
The bundles you can get is also a little nuts. XB1 is "bundurus everywhere" whilst PS4 is like "just buy the console". Not sure if there is anything to read into? Maybe just nothing.
XB1
PS4
They are throwing in an XB1 with Tablet purchases now?
Was just browsing Amazon top sellers after reading some of your posts. Popped onto .uk to see where PS4 and XB1 are at and they are very low now. Not saying I'm surprised, just interesting.
The bundles you can get is also a little nuts. XB1 is "bundurus everywhere" whilst PS4 is like "just buy the console". Not sure if there is anything to read into? Maybe just nothing.
XB1
PS4
Been like that for a while iirc probably doesn't mean much tbh.
XB1 price dropped to $100 or something?
Scalpers making a killing off of inflated secondary market Wii sales for years is a fact. I have no trouble believing that a lot of people who either took part in it with Wii or saw it from a distance and didn't want to miss the train a second time bought a Wii U "just in case" it exploded again. Generous holiday return periods made that an even safer gamble than it would've been several years ago. Therefore, all the pieces were in play to make that January 2013 Wii U report a distinct possibility. Whether it actually happened to a large degree is probably up to personal leanings, since none of us have direct access to the store numbers submitted to NPD that month. Having gone through the Wii stuff first-hand, though, I think it did play a role in the outstandingly bad January 2013 sales for Wii U, yes.
To be clear, Wii U sales would've still been "bad" as the system's been a sales dud in the U.S., but I don't think they would've been so outrageously bad if not for the returns.
Coulomb_Barrier
Member
That's ever so slightly far-fetched in my opinion.
Here's mine:
[3DS] 75k
[PS4] 190k
[WIU] 75k
[XB1] 175k
CosmicQueso
Member
One major retailer told me that their Wii U sales for that month were negative, as in they had more units returned than were sold that month. So I'm a believer in that theory.
He throws way better E3 parties than the rest of GAF.
Yeah, not buying that Sony is giving money to chartz for their volume projections. But hey, more power to 'em if they are.
Jawbreaker
Member
[PS4] 250K
[XB1] 181K
[3DS] 100K
[WIU] 59K
[XB1] 181K
[3DS] 100K
[WIU] 59K
Aquamarine
Member
I'm going to have to give them a try one of these days ^^
I think it's a list of historical customers throughout the past 10 years.
Maybe SCEA subscribed for a month 6 years ago just to see what the hubbub is about.
I highly, HIGHLY doubt SCEA still gives Brett money.
Oh...... wow.....
Not quite sure what to say to that other than LOL! I can't believe Pachter gets paid to make stupid video game predictions!? Where can i sig..........
Oh...... Ok.....
Sorry Aqua.
But hey! These numbers are funny! Why don't we make a topic where we make fun of Pach.........
Oh..... um..... ok......
YOU RUIN EVERYTHING AQUA!!!!!
Aquamarine
Member
All the Sales-Age regulars who have something intelligent to contribute will do so in this topic.
All the other stragglers who just comb through the front page looking for juicy stories....the people who completely ignore our NPD Predictions thread....how much would they REALLY bring to the table?
Probably not all that much. So Pachter's predictions are a little bonus for the intelligent GAFfers who keep up to date with this thread.
All the Sales-Age regulars who have something intelligent to contribute will do so in this topic.
All the other stragglers who just comb through the front page looking for juicy stories....the people who completely ignore our NPD Predictions thread....how much would they REALLY bring to the table?
Probably not all that much. So Pachter's predictions are a little bonus for the intelligent GAFfers who keep up to date with this thread.
Don't worry. I was 100% agreeing with you and just parodying what other people might do if it wasn't for your Q&A.
lightning2k3
Member
All the Sales-Age regulars who have something intelligent to contribute will do so in this topic.
All the other stragglers who just comb through the front page looking for juicy stories....the people who completely ignore our NPD Predictions thread....how much would they REALLY bring to the table?
Probably not all that much. So Pachter's predictions are a little bonus for the intelligent GAFfers who keep up to date with this thread.
I wonder if Pachter got those numbers because he overestimated the effect the price cut will have. He did the same in September overestimating the effect of the free game bundle. Over 300k for either console in January seems kinda ridiculous even at first glance though, so I'm not sure how that passed him by.
Aquamarine
Member
He's definitely putting too much weight on the price cut, assuming a lot of the incredible holiday momentum will spillover into January instead of coming to an abrupt halt.
It almost seems like he forgot that Microsoft temporarily rose the MSRP back up to $399.99.
anexanhume
Member
It will be interesting to see how many months between now and Halo 5 that he predicts XB1 ahead. Barring further price and bundle movement from MS, that's likely the only plausible next time for them to pull ahead again.
Whilst I don't see a huge gap between PS4 and Xbox One.
I'm not sure why anyone would assume that the PS4 is doing worse the Xbox One. Sure the gap isn't going to be massive but the PS4 should still be in the lead.
And really not sure why the numbers are so high, Am I right in thinking that no console has had a number that high in January? (excluding Wii)
slavesnyder
Member
I do not believe for a second that he honestly believes what he "predicts". He is only having fun. He follows neogaf (we know that) and he only wants to put a little fire into this love-hate-relationship.
Aquamarine
Member
PS2 sold ~450K, ~500K, etc. in various January reporting months.
And Xbox 360 almost hit 400K one year.
If that were the case, Pachter would release the predictions on GAF himself (he has a GAF account). But instead, he releases them exclusively to clients. So there are some months where GAF doesn't receive anything if there aren't people like me who care enough to post them. That doesn't sound like someone who releases predictions just to get a rise out of GAF.
From my experience with Pachter, I would have to....disagree with this analysis.
Pachter does indeed release the predictions for fun. That is, Wedbush Securities doesn't require him to do it...he goes the extra mile.
But it's not like he doesn't care, either. Pachter puts a lot of work into anything he releases to clients...that right there is de facto evidence that he cares. If he didn't care, he wouldn't release them. He can just be misguided at times. Honestly, the guy is much better at company analyses than he is at video game predictions.
metalslimer
Member
Aqua how are you expecting the n3DS to perform?