BlackBuzzard
Banned
WHAT IM NR 1!
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January 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, February 7th
MatPiscatella
Member
Rex, the discussions are different this month because nothing leaked publicly. The change in the deliverable happened months ago, back over the summer. The by platform charts were added last month, but nothing changed to the top 10 chart since I believe it was last August.
Anyways, it's been an experiment, but I don't think my participation here has been helpful to the discussion. If anyone wants to chat games or future releases you can find me on twitter.
Anyways, it's been an experiment, but I don't think my participation here has been helpful to the discussion. If anyone wants to chat games or future releases you can find me on twitter.
michaelius
Banned
So the whole xbox pr about best January ever was something like few thousand units above previous best results ?
Are the the actual numbers though?So the whole xbox pr about best January ever was something like few thousand units above previous best results ?
I realize that but while the discourse this month has certainly been the lowest bar so far it hasn't exactly been great the past few months either.
You mean on GAF in general or in this thread? Just because I'm nonplussed with the current state of the NPD disclosures doesn't mean I or anyone else here doesn't value your input/insight. This was not intended as personal attack or anything in just trying to explain why me and so many others feel the way we do about the current state of things is all. I hope you reconsider. The last thing I'd want to do is drive away a genuine contributor to the sales discourse that still occasionally occurs here.
I have to agree with Rex - with the traditional numbers remaining obfuscated lately it prevents our conventional discussion points and general interest. For the most part, I would say the challenge of predicting what the results will be for each subsequent month is what drives our (SalesGAF) interest, rather than using the data points to push an agenda. It's a puzzle of sorts, and the game is ever more engaging as we are able to better define more variables. Over the years, as the results are further hidden, we lose the ability to confirm our analysis, or see red flags that point to a hole in our logic. With the volatility of the market and without data points to verify our suspicions, it devolves into a mere guessing game without a payoff.
That aside, we have still had meaningful discourse on other related sales topics (thanks to Mat), and I don't think anyone here wants you to leave. I know you work for NPD, and from what you are saying their hands are tied as well. Even if their decisions may seem anti-information to us, I would guess it is a logical decision for their business (with the sources they are receiving their info from).
So please stick around, and try not to take our frustrations personally. Thank you again for what you are able to provide us, and if you ever have any sway in what can be publically released, I'm sure you a long list of our demands:
everything
ethomaz
Banned
That is pretty sad to read.The reason the results are numberless is to obfuscate the data and protect sources. Leaning toward just posting the top 1 or 2 (still numberless) in future non-public months, then as a result. That'd serve the purpose of providing a fill-in for the annual results (top predictor for the month fills in for missing data for the Full Year predictions) and still give some idea of how things went for the month.
As it's also just plain fun to see how you rank, though, could use the top predictor as "the truth" and rank everyone compared to that. That'd be a "just for fun" ranking, though. The annuals would still be based on the actual results. This "just for fun" ranking would be inherently flawed, of course, but it'd at least give some idea of overall positioning for the month. As Bruno MB said, I also much prefer to post numbered rankings on real data, but that's only possible when the results are public.Hopefully we'll start getting public data again in the months ahead, though!If most of the year is like this, this may be the last year I do predictions.
You did a great job all these years... thanks.
No but it is about 10k close to it... if you read the thread you will understand... math is always precise.
unapersson
Member
That would be a real shame as I think your contributions have been really valuable and bring a welcome dose of reality/sanity. Twitter is ok, but the discussion winds up quite stilted. Hopefully you'll still dip in occasionally.
There can be too much of an obsession with raw numbers, which are often just used to create theories that come crashing down a few months later.
Welfare
Member
...
So, yeah, Xbox One was up YoY by ... 7k units?
The best January was 150K in 2015. 2016 was 132K.
Oh, Ok, I misread that. Thanks!
The reason the results are numberless is to obfuscate the data and protect sources. Leaning toward just posting the top 1 or 2 (still numberless) in future non-public months, then as a result. That'd serve the purpose of providing a fill-in for the annual results (top predictor for the month fills in for missing data for the Full Year predictions) and still give some idea of how things went for the month.
As it's also just plain fun to see how you rank, though, could use the top predictor as "the truth" and rank everyone compared to that. That'd be a "just for fun" ranking, though. The annuals would still be based on the actual results. This "just for fun" ranking would be inherently flawed, of course, but it'd at least give some idea of overall positioning for the month. As Bruno MB said, I also much prefer to post numbered rankings on real data, but that's only possible when the results are public.Hopefully we'll start getting public data again in the months ahead, though!If most of the year is like this, this may be the last year I do predictions.
I hope we can keep going and months like this are anomaly.
- I agree with Rex, Mat, I certainly hope you don't feel that you would have any reason to cease participating in the conversations here. I have been fairly quiet of late due to circumstances on my end (busy, busy), but I've been able to read things, and I enjoy seeing your commentary and thoughts. I don't think that anyone holds you in any way responsible for the nature of how the information we have available has changed, it's the nature of the market has shifted, and those participating in it have negotiated to work with NPD to provide that data.
You've proven yourself to be just as much a Gaffer as anyone else here. Yes, you're a member of NPD, but that only makes your presence more interesting, and not something that should be considered 'expiremental', or tenuous.
I actually consider my schedule preventing me from discussing more with you a shame because I enjoy the back and forth discussions we've had in various threads, *especially* now that we've got such a dramatic shift coming up in the next several months with two new stages, with the Switch and then whatever the Scorpio's possibilities will be.
I hope you will choose to continue participating here as a true-blue member of SalesGaf. You've more than earned your place here. Anyone who would single you out with any kind of actual personal hostility is absolutely misguided.
-------------------------------
On Topic here (Sort of, anyway?) Horizon is doing really well in preorders. The reviews saw a definite uptick and people asking about it, as well. I'm personally psyched for it. Had people asking about Pro benefits too, which is amusing, hearing about that more often.
We're getting more questions about the Switch, but we're going to have almost no more than preorder fufillment in our districts, folks. Check early and see if local stores are doing midnight releases, not all of them are, like when we did the PS4 launch.
Breath of the Wild has good numbers, it's definitely been a big selling point, and the only Wii U title with any actual interest in forever... as well as the only Switch title with any actual real preoders (Which are obviously, excellent, in comparison - it's the selling point). We've got some for 1 2 Switch in each store, but I'm not confident in that game's performance at all.
Welp, we'll see how it goes. Next Friday, here we come.
Crazy that next Friday the Switch is coming. Seems like it would always be "way out there," but it's just next week. Wow. The more I read about 1, 2, Switch, it seems a good use for the new motion-control. I'm just not big on motion-control. Pointer, I've always been a big supporter of, in comparison. Still think it needs to be a pack-in to get any traction/appreciation. Maybe in the Fall for a holiday bundle or something.
CosmicQueso
Member
The Nioh million ship number should translate to between 275k-325k for US packaged by my extrapolated math.
As I stated in that thread I'm confident they could've should through a lot more at retail if they had bothered to supply a decent amount of stock. Its absolutely maddening how often they come up short on retail stock for these JP games.
It could be that retailers didn't want to take the stock.
Yeah, ever since the recession hit in Fall 2008, retailers have been excess stock adverse to the point that they'd rather have shortages of an unexpected popular game than have inventory they can't sell weighing them down. That's been the anecdotal reports from retail, anyways. Reduced release counts and digital increase hasn't changed that much.
1,2, Switch should be a bundle game like Wii Sports, seems a good way to introduce the Joy- Cons.
As standalone I don't know if will attract much people.
AdventureRacing
Member
Personally I pretty much stopped following NPD. Media create threads are so much more interesting because we actually get numbers.
Pretty exciting as both a gamer and a fan of sales age.
Pretty exciting as both a gamer and a fan of sales age.
Good point! Hadn't really considered that. Regardless I hope they have a decent amount of stock shipping out to meet demand at this point as it's still out of stock in many places.
Primethius
Banned
I don't think the indicators showed the sales strength that the game actually performed to due to post launch WoM and critical reception.
In Japan IIRC, the preorders had it pegged at a 40k launch and it ended up selling 70-75k copies.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Yep, it seems like the demand surged at the last minute. Besides, it isn't like these JP games typically perform this well. They did the right thing by being cautious and conservative. They now know they have demand and they can respond accordingly. It is better than the opposite of having more than enough stock but smaller demand.
Jarod McChicken
Member
Thanks again for the news ! On Amazon, Horizon Zero Dawn have been solid for some time but the day of the reviews correspond exactly to the moment the game finally beat Zelda to reach #1 on a daily basis. The comparison is now irrelevant since Zelda and Switch are out of stock there, but things looks really good for the new IP. About Zelda, the Wii U version seems to sell incredibly well in the US, the combined number for Zelda could be crazy I think.
MatPiscatella
Member
Yo, I'm not quitting the forum or anything. I'll still come in during the release and post whatever information I can that hasn't been included in some of the other press coverage and clear up any misunderstandings that might pop up. It's all good.
I mean it's going to be like close to 1:1 with Switch and Zelda, if you aren't interested in Zelda why buy the Switch now?
True it seeens it far exceeded their forecasts. Even still their initial shipment of stock seems incredibly low. I just wish they'd show more faith in these JP games they release in the US by supporting them with a decent amount of stock at retail. I'm aware there are doubts as to whether these titles will sell but at least in this case there were three separate beta tests to determine engagement and lots of positive coverage that amounted to really solid WOM. It seems like they had some fairly solid barometers for how much demand there would be regardless of preorder figures.
Buuuut as others have pointed out perhaps retailers only order stock based on preorder metrics. If that's the case then it would be the retailers who are mostly at fault but still I feel like Sony should've had more stock prepped and ready to ship out if they knew demand would exceed supply.
Well glad you aren't leaving. Do you mind clarifying what you meant? Will you just be engaging with the community/posting less?
MatPiscatella
Member
Reactive rather than proactive. I don't want to have people thinking I'm here to look for leaks or to stifle conversation, or that I'm here on some kind of PR program. I'm only here for fun and to try and help where I can because many posters here are great and know what they're talking about. So, if there are questions for me I'll respond. That kind of thing.
Sangetsu-II
Member
Now that we have official PSVR sales numbers, what do you think of the whole VR Industry and it's emerging markets?
Also, how are PSVR games categorized in NPD digital reports?, are they counted as PS4 main software or is there a separated report of VR sales?
Sorry for the VR Questions, I'm a fan of it
MatPiscatella
Member
PSVR sales are encouraging as demand appears to be outstripping supply. So that's good. However, plenty of room to grow given the HW attach rate. That makes me wonder what is the cap on that demand? 10% attach? 20% attach? More? Cautiously optimistic.
For the Oculus and Vive, without announced numbers we're left to estimate. I believe some of the numbers out there for these are far too optimistic. We have an idea that we're talking in some multiple of hundreds of thousands of units out there for each, but nailing that number down is tough. The lack of announcements regarding units out there is telling, however.
There are two types: PSVR Required, and PSVR Compatible. All PSVR software sales are counted as PS4 software. The PSVR attribute is lower on the product hierarchy than the overall platform, so everything rolls up.
Everyone's very interested in VR. But, like with much of the games market these days, getting to the truth of the sales picture is very difficult.
Unknown?
Member
But retailers take plenty of stock from games that won't sell nearly as well as NiOh. Retailers had lots of copies of Akibas Trip Undead and Undressed in 2014. They had plenty of copies of Dragon Quest Builders, and tons of other spin off music games. Like seriously?
Sangetsu-II
Member
Thank you for your response Mat.
Speaking about attach rates, how are both physical and digital software attach rates?
I believe John Harker (
previously had access to NPD
We then came to the conclusion he may have only be referring to physical sales which would be true because I believe only 10 PSVR games where released physically and l only own one VR game physical which would align with his statement.
So, if NPD isn't calculating the digital attach rate, it's not really a fair comparison. I just want to know if you track both?
ethomaz
Banned
Thanks.