Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?

  • Yes, will be approved without changes.

    Votes: 221 24.9%

  • Yes, will be approved but with structural changes to ABK.

    Votes: 102 11.5%

  • Yes, will be approved but only with behavioral concessions.

    Votes: 262 29.6%

  • No, will not be approved.

    Votes: 301 34.0%
  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
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DeepEnigma said:
Sassy Red Wine GIF by Married At First Sight
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Is she rolling her eyes because she knows how detrimental the deal would be to cloud gaming?
 
X-Wing said:
He knows that the CMA block kills the deal, so he is in desperate mode now.
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desperation after the financial results released by microsoft two days ago is absurd, even more absurd that he threatens an entire sovereign nation and its bodies
 
So thinking about this... People in here thought the block was set in stone early on based on the "provisional" findings. similarly now people are saying the deal is fully dead because the CMA finally decided to block. In reality, there are all sorts of directions this can go... It isn't over till it's over. Fat lady sings and all that.
 
Topher said:
I already defended it. Your response didn't address anything specifically thus......memes. Not really interested in a "no it isn't" "yes it is" back and forth.
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Your defense was that a law professor said they were gonna be a little tighter on regulation with regards to acquisitions down the road, lol. That doesn't defend it at all.
 
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splattered said:
So thinking about this... People in here thought the block was set in stone early on based on the "provisional" findings. similarly now people are saying the deal is fully dead because the CMA finally decided to block. In reality, there are all sorts of directions this can go... It isn't over till it's over. Fat lady sings and all that.
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Who thought the block was set in stone based on the provisional findings? The poll results originally did not state that, at all.
 
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splattered said:
So thinking about this... People in here thought the block was set in stone early on based on the "provisional" findings. similarly now people are saying the deal is fully dead because the CMA finally decided to block. In reality, there are all sorts of directions this can go... It isn't over till it's over. Fat lady sings and all that.
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It definitely isn't over.

delirium trigger said:
Your defense was that a law professor said they were gonna be a little tighter on regulation with regards to acquisitions down the road, lol. That doesn't defense it all.
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Wrong. You keep saying they have no leg to stand on and the law professor was explaining that yeah, they actually do.
 
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splattered said:
So thinking about this... People in here thought the block was set in stone early on based on the "provisional" findings. similarly now people are saying the deal is fully dead because the CMA finally decided to block. In reality, there are all sorts of directions this can go... It isn't over till it's over. Fat lady sings and all that.
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It just seems that from everything that has happened, and having followed the whole process, the CMA did its due diligence and the way back for MS/ABK is hard to even imagine.

The way MS has escalated its rhetoric already speaks to what they think of their chances, and the UK government responding so quickly doesn't bode well at all.

It also paved the way for EC and FTC. Don't forget EC was already asking weird shit like a download option for their cloud solutions.

Stages of grief are in motion imo
 
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splattered said:
So thinking about this... People in here thought the block was set in stone early on based on the "provisional" findings. similarly now people are saying the deal is fully dead because the CMA finally decided to block. In reality, there are all sorts of directions this can go... It isn't over till it's over. Fat lady sings and all that.
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It isn't over but the chances for the deal to pass have been drastically reduced.
 
delirium trigger said:
Lobbying is lobbying, I don't like it either.

But you're supposed to have solid grounds for calling off the deal and their "cloud gaming" answer is complete bs and everyone knows it. Regulators are worried that they're monopolizing a market that their major competitors like Google are literally running away from.

I've owned each console for each generation, and I'd like to think I can put the petty bias aside, this is flat out ridiculous. They just don't want the deal to go through which is why it's government overreach. They don't have a solid argument at all.
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Lobbying inside your own country can be pretty shady. Openly lobbying to disturb a foreign market is some some imperialist bullshit, and it's pretty serious... But that's not really the subject.

I'm begining to think that the CMA wanted the deal to fail in a way or another. Their lawyer probably saw that using the console market as an argument wasn't going to make them win. I think that's why they suddently turned around about divesting CoD. The cloud gaming market argument is what made them win. I'm still not sure what to think about it, but the CMA saw this as an opportunity.

Then again, you could maybe qualify this as a government overreach inside the UK, but they have the right to do whatever they want inside their territory. As long as MS has the right to ignore them, even if that's not conceivable for the Xbox brand, I don't see the problem.
 
splattered said:
So thinking about this... People in here thought the block was set in stone early on based on the "provisional" findings. similarly now people are saying the deal is fully dead because the CMA finally decided to block. In reality, there are all sorts of directions this can go... It isn't over till it's over. Fat lady sings and all that.
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There is optimism, and there is reality. We can sit here and debate the sliver of a chance MS has to get this through, but it would be so time consuming, expensive, and ultimately fruitless, that its almost fiscally irresponsible for them to proceed. If you're hanging onto hope that this can get reversed, you really should reassess that and accept that it isn't now. Its better for you in the long run.
 
splattered said:
People in here thought the block was set in stone early on based on the "provisional" findings. similarly now people are saying the deal is fully dead because the CMA finally decided to block.
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The difference is in the word "provisional".
This block decision is final.

The deal is dead because Microsoft had to have full approval from the four major regulatory agencies. The CMA block stops the acquisition entirely in its tracks and gives ammunition for other regulatory agencies to block it as well.

Microsoft can appeal but that looks to be a Sisyphean task. All the stars would have to align perfectly for any appeal to go through and even if it did there'd be no guarantee the CMA would rule any differently. Neither ABK nor Microsoft shareholders are going to sit back and watch as both companies burn money on an increasingly unlikely merger.
 
Drell said:
Lobbying inside your own country can be pretty shady. Openly lobbying to disturb a foreign market is some some imperialist bullshit, and it's pretty serious... But that's not really the subject.

I'm begining to think that the CMA wanted the deal to fail in a way or another. Their lawyer probably saw that using the console market as an argument wasn't going to make them win. I think that's why they suddently turned around about divesting CoD. The cloud gaming market argument is what made them win. I'm still not sure what to think about it, but the CMA saw this as an opportunity.

Then again, you could maybe qualify this as a government overreach inside the UK, but they have the right to do whatever they want inside their territory. As long as MS has the right to ignore them, even if that's not conceivable for the Xbox brand, I don't see the problem.
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What is this win business.

CMA decide and that's it. This isn't a battle. Even if MS are successful getting it reviewed it just goes back to the CMA to decide again.

They can and probably will come to the same conclusion and what then. Keep going until the CMA get bored and let MS win like arguing with a toddler?
 
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Ma
Thirty7ven said:
It just seems that from everything that has happened, and having followed the whole process, the CMA did its due diligence and the way back for MS/ABK is hard to even imagine.

The way MS has escalated its rhetoric already speaks to what they think of their chances, and the UK government responding so quickly doesn't bode well at all.

It also paved the way for EC and FTC. Don't forget EC was already asking weird shit like a download option for their cloud solutions.

Stages of grief are in motion imo
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Maybe! Time will tell
 
I'm glad the deal is seemingly blocked purely because Xbox has not really demonstrated its ability to nurture studios after acquiring them.

I mean:
1) what the fuck is going on with Rare and Everwild?
2) what the hell is the Coalition doing?
3) why is all the management at Bungie committing seppuku, but more importantly what the hell happened to Halo?
4) why does Forza Motorsport 8 look so "meh" despite having more time and coming out after GT7?
5) why are Ninja Theory shouting in the mountains of Iceland?
6) why has Xbox generally squandered a bunch of good IPs (or relationships) that used to be Xbox exclusives?!

(I have a Series S, and Game Pass, and I want to play all of the above games, so I'm not an Xbox hater, I'm just irritated by their incompetence).

If Xbox is going to just acquire ActiBliz and not really do anything beyond reap the profits, why bother acquiring them? How do we know they're not going to just run all of ActiBliz's IP into the ground?

They've got all sorts of shit going on "at home" and their response is "fuck it we'll buy ActiBliz and everything will be fine".
 
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supernova8 said:
I'm glad the deal is seemingly blocked purely because Xbox has not really demonstrated its ability to nurture studios after acquiring them.

I mean:
1) what the fuck is going on with Rare and Everwild?
2) what the hell is the Coalition doing?
3) why is all the management at Bungie committing seppuku, but more importantly what the hell happened to Halo?
4) why does Forza Motorsport 8 look so "meh" despite having more time and coming out after GT7?
5) why are Ninja Theory shouting in the mountains of Iceland?
6) why has Xbox generally squandered a bunch of good IPs (or relationships) that used to be Xbox exclusives?!

(I have a Series S, and Game Pass, and I want to play all of the above games, so I'm not an Xbox hater, I'm just irritated by their incompetence).

If Xbox is going to just acquire ActiBliz and not really do anything beyond reap the profits, why bother acquiring them? How do we know they're not going to just run all of ActiBliz's IP into the ground?

They've got all sorts of shit going on "at home" and their response is "fuck it we'll buy ActiBliz and everything will be fine".
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The idea that MS would pump the brakes on COD and make Activision studios work on multiple new IP or bring old IP back other than by BC is just collective delusion. They would add the revenue to the pile, increase GP's and Cloud profile, and that's it.
 
What makes this so delicious is the overwhelmingly (and unwarrented) cocky attitude that MS has had about this the whole time. The clearly pandering to thier fanbois desires for console wars just for it to blow up in there face. That image of Greenberg holding up an X with crash...chefs kiss.
 
Interesting article on judicial reviews of CMA.

This is key:

"CMA decisions will be reviewed under strict principles of irrationality under the Wednesbury unreasonableness test, i.e., was the decision so irrational that no reasonable competition authority could have reached the same decision? "

www.clearyantitrustwatch.com

CAT Confirms High Threshold for Review of CMA Merger Decisions

CMA merger decisions are subject to judicial review by the Competition Appeal Tribunal (CAT). Challenges to the CMA’s substantive decision-making have,
www.clearyantitrustwatch.com www.clearyantitrustwatch.com
 
delirium trigger said:
You wanna complain about big bad corporations but here we have an example of government overreach. They squashed it over cloud gaming for crying out loud.
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Microsoft has been investing billions in cloud gaming. Phil Spencer named it their #1 focus and even said, because it's the future, their competition is Google, Apple and Amazon, NOT Nintendo and Sony.

But, now, it's back to silly, little "cloud gaming" and the CMA is clueless?

It doesn't matter if you or I think cloud gaming is the future. Microsoft does and they are spending billions to put themselves in a position to not just be the leader, but to have a full strangle-hold on the market when it does begin in earnest.
 
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feynoob said:
Since the deal is over, what are you guys going to do now?
I will be back to my FIFA journey.
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I'm just waiting to see what the aftermath will be like. Hopefully with the issues Microsoft is having with this they will turn to what they already have. They certainly can compete they just need to use what they have properly.
 
Captain Toad said:
Microsoft has been investing billions in cloud gaming. Phil Spencer named it their #1 focus and even said, because it's the future, their competition is Google, Apple and Amazon, NOT Nintendo and Sony.

But, now, it's back to silly, little "cloud gaming" and the CMA is clueless?

It doesn't matter if you or I think cloud gaming is the future. Microsoft does and they are spending billions to put themselves in a position to not just be the leader, but to have a full strangle-hold on the market when it does begin in earnest.
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And my nfl Team will tell me tonight they got the guy they wanted and was a big value. Hard numbers only matter the cloud leader has the capacity for 5k concurrent users. The cloud market is going no where. No one can predict the future for sure but cloud gaming has been around a long time and it still is insignificant. Microsoft is spending billions to expand cloud computing. Unless you think it takes billions to get them 5k concurrent users 😆.
 
quest said:
And my nfl Team will tell me tonight they got the guy they wanted and was a big value. Hard numbers only matter the cloud leader has the capacity for 5k concurrent users. The cloud market is going no where. No one can predict the future for sure but cloud gaming has been around a long time and it still is insignificant. Microsoft is spending billions to expand cloud computing. Unless you think it takes billions to get them 5k concurrent users 😆.
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You know that 5000 concurrent users is most likely a barefaced lie right?
 
I've watched guys on social media descend from wanna be FTC lawyers into deep conspiracy theorists within 24 hours. Everything from secrete meetings to Russian interference...
 
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Topher said:
Interesting article on judicial reviews of CMA.

This is key:

"CMA decisions will be reviewed under strict principles of irrationality under the Wednesbury unreasonableness test, i.e., was the decision so irrational that no reasonable competition authority could have reached the same decision? "

[/URL]
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Really depends on if EU clears and then if remaining regulatory bodies follow CMA's example or the EC's. I know some were holding out to see what either of them did. For example New Zealand delayed til early June (which is after EC's decision).

No idea if the FTC would count (especially if they're beaten in court).

I think Microsoft could make some solid arguments that the CMA acted irrational. Coming to their conclusion with a lack of evidence and disregarding all the RCBs for unknown and/or non-existent future harms. If CAT review agrees and sends it back to the CMA, the CMA would need hard evidence of future harm which just doesn't exist. Without the cloud concern, console is already off the table, so the CMA would have no reason to block.

I still think it's dead come July. I think Activision will want to bounce or up the "cancel fee" to like $5B.

If we pass July 18th without the deal being abandoned, I give it like maybe <1% of going through. Still a non-zero chance.
 
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