Fangraphs has the
Jays tied for 3rd with the Yankees, and only finishing 5 GB the Red Sox. I can't imagine that happening, but it'd be the best season for the Jays in 20 years, so I'd be happy with it.
Of course, those Projected Standings also have a 3-way tie atop the AL West and every team in the NL West having at least 80 wins, so I don't know how seriously anyone can take them.
If you want to see the cognitive dissonance in action, check out
Bless You Boys. They blame the reaction on jealousy, rather than common sense.