Spoiler: that's still a 50% chance, the same as if you flipped it only once.
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Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate |OT| I Mounted It!
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Spoiler: that's still a 50% chance, the same as if you flipped it only once.
Yup.
The_Hitcher89
Member
Jesus, this one-star first proper quest is more difficult than I expected.
Need to deliver Gargwa eggs, but there's a Great Jaggi roaming the area. Finding it really hard to get the Jaggi out of the way, trying to kill him is just draining my resources. Got him to leave the zone so I could collect an egg, but he comes back pretty quickly.
Am I supposed to attack him til he leaves, get an egg, rinse and repeat?
Need to deliver Gargwa eggs, but there's a Great Jaggi roaming the area. Finding it really hard to get the Jaggi out of the way, trying to kill him is just draining my resources. Got him to leave the zone so I could collect an egg, but he comes back pretty quickly.
Am I supposed to attack him til he leaves, get an egg, rinse and repeat?
Epic hunts like these actually fun when ypu and your team mate are well coordinated. The problem is, and coordination requires communication. With the lack of voice chat, shitty 3ds touchscreen keyboard, and inability to chat in-game exceot with canned response means that these epic become more of a chore than fun.
If you haven't made any yet, combine dung and bomb casing to get a dung bomb. If you hit a large monster with it, they will turn tail and stay away for a while.
Killing G. Jaggi is a good permanent solution, too.
diablos991
Can’t stump the diablos
Farming lv 140 vdrome for divine spheres is mind numbing.
I'm looking at it as an end result of me having flipped the coin n times. If I flip it n times, it's most likely that it'll be head n/2 times.
So if I can't add the percentages together and get an average chance at the gem per kill, how do I calculate it?
I'm not good with math but I still don't understand what this has to do with my problem.
The bullets bounce as well? I took down my first Apex monster with the Hammer, so I didn't know.
I thought of using another Wystone instead, but if the bullets bounce there is not much choice.
It's just extra damage. The only stuff that affects them physically are status effects. They can't get the effects of elemental blight.
The chance of getting at least one specific 3% drop over 3 carves is (1-0.97^3), which is approximately 8.7%. Say you have 50 carves instead. The chance of getting at least one specific 3% drop over 50 carves is (1-0.97^50), which is approximately 78%.
Essentially, you calculate the probability of not getting a single one of that 3% drop, which is 0.97^x, and then take the complementary probability, that is (1-0.97^x).
This is disregarding quest rewards etc, but you should get the jist of it.
If you want the chance of something happening at least once, then multiply the chances of it not happening together. So if you have a 3% chance of getting an item off a body carve, and three carves, then you multiply .97*.97*.97=.912, or a 91.2% chance you don't get it in any carves. Flip that around and you get a 8.8% chance of getting a 3% drop rate item at least once off of 3 carves.
You assume correlation where there is none. In this case, a 2% drop will always be a 2% drop. It is not dependant on your previous carve or capture reward, percentages are absolute and totally uncorrelated, so you can't just add them.
The fallacy of large numbers is one of the more prominent cases where misinterpretation of statistics can lead to wrong results. In your case, repeating a low percentage gamble would imply that it has to pay off sometime soon, but that only holds in reaaaally large numbers. Like the coin example, flipping it 100 times and having 55:45 wouldn't be that uncommon, but flipping it 1000 times and having something like 550:450 would be.
You can however calculate the likelyhood of the unlikely drop to happen once in 20, 30, 1000 chances.
Let's say we have an average rate of 2% per drop/reward/carve. That's 98% of it not appearing. Since the events are independent, we can take 0,98^20 and we get a probability of ~67% of the event not happening, or 33% of the rare drop happening in 20 chances.
And again, that still only applies to large sample sizes. You can go 100 hunts without the desired drop, it's uncommong but not impossible. What you meant, that with the 2% drop it has to drop by the 50th attempt, is something linked to the fallacy of large numbers.
And this explanation is kinda convulted and probably wrong in some instances, excuse me, I'm tired and not that good at math myself.
To calculate percentage chance you take 1-(the chance) and multiply that number with it self as many times you can carwe. So if it's a 10% changes and you can carwe 3, times it's 1-0,10 =0.9 and then multiply it with itself three times 0,9*0,9*0.9=0,729. That is the percent chance of not getting it, and then it's 1-0,729=0,271 chance to get that item.
A bit rubbish explanation, but hope you get it.
Out_Of_Ammo
Member
Went to a convention today and picked up these guys.
They go really well with this Tigrex I got last year
I love the detail and paintjobs on those figures.
They go really well with this Tigrex I got last year
I love the detail and paintjobs on those figures.
pelicansurf
Needs a Holiday on Gallifrey
I like statistics lessons in my Monster Hunter threads.
Seriously, I do. That was awesome.
Seriously, I do. That was awesome.
Muchi Muchi Pink
Member
The thing is you can get 3 rares in one hunt or not a single one in 20. It's not that simple saying after 20 you should have it.
Gorgeous stuff!
I kinda want some MH stuff myself, usually not that into that, but a puffy Zamtrios statue would be pretty awesome.
Out_Of_Ammo
Member
Armour and decorations provide skill points but they don't do anything until you accumulate at least 10 of them. That's when they appear in the active skills page. Sometimes it's higher like 15 or 20 for better effects.
Ok, thanks. Know a chart that shows the different weaknesses?
Coincidentally, I just discovered this fella was a thing and put in an order for him today:
Out_Of_Ammo
Member
Yeah, he's from the same figure series. You won't be disappointed, they're great quality. The Zinogre one is also amazing but they didn't have that one
I understand how you calculate it now but can you or can you not add the percentages to each other? Concretely (1-0.97^3)+(1-0.98)+(1-0.97)+(1-0.99) = 14.7327% per fight. Is that wrong?
Also I never meant to imply that the chance increases with every time you didn't get it. I know about the gambler's fallacy.
Also I never meant to imply that the chance increases with every time you didn't get it. I know about the gambler's fallacy.
Where do you guys rank Evasion +1? I have a set with Honed Blade and Challenger+2, with enough room for a third 10 point skill. I can't decide between Evasion+1 or Razor Sharp. Maybe make two equipment sets with the Razor Sharp one for DB?
I feel like I never feel the impact of Evasion until it's at least +2 but idk.
I feel like I never feel the impact of Evasion until it's at least +2 but idk.
No, it's still multiplication. Calculate the event that you get none, and then take the complementary probability. It will be (1-0.97^3*0.98*0.97*0.99) = approx 14.1%.
Out_Of_Ammo
Member
This game needs a Dedede hammer and costume DLC.
The chances are slimming down every time :'( Thank you.
The difference between 1 and 2 is actually only 2 frames. The difference between 2 and 3 is much larger (6f).
Is he really that hard? Surely he must be easier than say, a Shagaru or deviljho?
-Alternis
Bitmap Frogs
Mr. Community
Any HR4 lobby? I'm feeling frisky.
diablos991
Can’t stump the diablos
It's super easy. That's the problem.
tragic
Developer
As a Switch Axe main since its inception, I see it like this:
+1 is awesome - something I want in any SAXE set (along with Evade Dist)
+2 is really awesome, but 9/10 times I want those points somewhere else.
+3 is a joke. Feels like training wheels, but has its uses (Lance with Evasion +3 is LOL!)
Now, your weapon also factors into it. If your weapon is dulling 24/7, and Razor Sharp is an option, then go for it, but it typically means you can be less aggressive (meaning; staying for that extra hit or two, staying under the mob more often, dodging into certain attacks instead of away or through - if that makes sense).
Personally, I find that I can be the same level of aggressive with Evasion +1 and Evasion +2, but my timing has to be better with +1 (which is fine by me).
Of course, this comes from someone who runs Evasion +1 and Evade Dist with every single SAXE set. The extra 4F of invuln along with the additional distance makes a ton of difference. If you are just addding +1 without Dist, then I could totally see how the impact isn't quite as noticable (whereas +2 would be more noticable).
I got the Zinogre one when he was back in print a few weeks ago (very briefly), though I see he's still available on Amazon through a 3rd party seller.Yeah, he's from the same figure series. You won't be disappointed, they're great quality. The Zinogre one is also amazing but they didn't have that one
FlyingSaucer
Banned
Is there any way to reliably break the head of a Seregios with a GS ?
goddamn the difference between OG 3DS and the new 3DS XL is massive. I knew it would be improved in some way but I figured it would be subtle.
I put 120 hours into the game on the regular 3DS so I figured whatever differences would be immediately apparent. But it's like night and day, in particular the framerate.
Took me a few hunts to adjust to the nub. I still occasionally hit it by accident while trying to reload, since it feels too much like a button. I'll get used to it eventually.
I put 120 hours into the game on the regular 3DS so I figured whatever differences would be immediately apparent. But it's like night and day, in particular the framerate.
Took me a few hunts to adjust to the nub. I still occasionally hit it by accident while trying to reload, since it feels too much like a button. I'll get used to it eventually.
Hit & Run, mount, trap, trip. Whatever you can do to get a clear shot at the head.
I did it a few times while getting breachers for the GS. Hated it though. Seregios is a monster that goes from easy to kill to a pain in my ass if I'm after breaks.
diablos991
Can’t stump the diablos
Yea . The difference is greater than whan I expected or read about. It's the way the game should be played.
How is the left stick/pad thing? The rubber top on my Og XL left stick started coming off today and maybe I should upgrade...
Agreed, and no one ever helps you with your urgent even though you help them with theirs since the monster is so boring.
Out_Of_Ammo
Member
Anyone up for G1-3 hunts?
I want to test my New LS.
I can join!
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