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[Mozza]

Pikmin 4 better not take up like 15 minutes man. 5 minutes MAX nintendo.

Five minutes for Pikmin will be more than enough...

 

[Woopah]

I mean Jeff Grubb has made an entire career out of that

To be honest career hack Emily Rodgers is not too far behind.....

Both Jeff and Emily clearly have sources at game publishers, and in Emily's case she has sources at Nintendo in particular.

 

[Nautilus]

We will wait and see, perhaps the Switch is only halfway through it's lifecycle like Nintendo stated.... although I do not tend to put a lot of stock in what they say about hardware, they have lied a few time in the past, stating no hardware/revisions were planned, only for them to be announced a short time after.

Nintendo was saying that for almost 4 years. As the sales indicate, is already way out of its peak.

 

[Mozza]

Both Jeff and Emily clearly have sources at game publishers, and in Emily's case she has sources at Nintendo in particular.

She does get a lot wrong though, I think most of these people overstate their sources, and a lot is pretty obvious at times.

 

[WhiteWaterM00se]

Probably, but that would be up for Nintendo. Knowing them and how much they hate game preservation the Switch successor would either have Switch/DS games locked behind a paywall or they wouldnt bother at all.

I don’t love or hate that answer. I agree, it seems Nintendo would rather resell you games each generation (if possible).

So, if BC is likely, it would be something they may add to NSO or something?

I have been under the assumption that only NSO would carry forward on Switch 2, and physical carts & Digital purchases may not. Is this how you see it?

 

[Draugoth]

So, if BC is likely, it would be something they may add to NSO or something?

I have been under the assumption that only NSO would carry forward on Switch 2, and physical carts & Digital purchases may not. Is this how you see it?

What i could see happening is an update for Nintendo Switch Online with Switch, DS, Wii and Gamecube Games.

It also depends on which media format they chose for the next console, if they go with Blu Ray discs (which is likely if they want to go beyond 1080p and 60FPS) than we wouldnt have out-of-the-box backwards compatibility.

 

[Mozza]

Nintendo was saying that for almost 4 years. As the sales indicate, is already way out of its peak.

The Switch sold 18 million consoles last year, which is still pretty decent... and take the inflated pandemic years sales away, and the console has been pretty consistent.

But I do agree with you we are ready for new hardware, and there are a lot of indicators it may be coming next year... tomorrows direct may be a decent indicator.

 

[WhiteWaterM00se]

Draugoth

My owe belief of the Switch Pro situation has always been.

Switch Pro WAS developed internally at Nintendo. They had games already running on Switch Pro. Games like Bayo 3, TOTK, Mario Rabbids 2, and rumored games like Batman & Borderlands 3. Then COVID hit the world and component shortages happened and Switch Pro was canceled internally.

Nintendo has had to scramble and move new hardware forward. And thus, it is likely that BC could be “cut” to keep cost down on the Switch 2.

Is this how you see it?

 

[Nautilus]

The Switch sold 18 million consoles last year, which is still pretty decent... and take the inflated pandemic years sales away, and the console has been pretty consistent.

Oh yeah, I don't deny that.

But in 2021 it did something like 23 million. 2022 was a clear, but small, decline at 18 million. And Nintendo estimates this year will be 15 million. 2024 will clearly be even less.

Nintendo won't wait until the Switch is doing 5 million per year to launch it. Like I said, they will want a cross gen period to have a cushion for investors to be happy.

 

[Draugoth]

My owe belief of the Switch Pro situation has always been.

Switch Pro WAS developed internally at Nintendo. They had games already running on Switch Pro. Games like Bayo 3, TOTK, Mario Rabbids 2, and rumored games like Batman & Borderlands 3. Then COVID hit the world and component shortages happened and Switch Pro was canceled internally.

Nintendo has had to scramble and move new hardware forward. And thus, it is likely that BC could be “cut” to keep cost down on the Switch 2.

This. It was reported in production but at this point it's not happenning.

The Nintendo Switch sucessor is what we will be getting. Maybe a Mid 2024 Announcement with December 2024 Release Date. But for sure it's being announced and released in 2025. They will milk the Switch as much as they can.

 

[WhiteWaterM00se]

What i could see happening is an update for Nintendo Switch Online with Switch, DS, Wii and Gamecube Games.

It also depends on which media format they chose for the next console, if they go with Blu Ray discs (which is likely if they want to go beyond 1080p and 60FPS) than we wouldnt have out-of-the-box backwards compatibility.

Blu Ray would be indicative of a “home console”. I have always thought, Nintendo would try to sell you the Wii U as Switch 2. Except the gamepad would be able to travel outside the “home console”.

Thus allowing Nintendo multiple revenue streams. Being able to sell extra handhelds (Switch like). Games could be either native on the handheld or streamed if too powerful for native.

 

[Mozza]

What i could see happening is an update for Nintendo Switch Online with Switch, DS, Wii and Gamecube Games.

It also depends on which media format they chose for the next console, if they go with Blu Ray discs (which is likely if they want to go beyond 1080p and 60FPS) than we wouldnt have out-of-the-box backwards compatibility.

Nintendo are not going to be making a dedicated home console, so no Blu-ray discs.

It will be a new version of the Switch, with backward compatibility, Nintendo have invested a lot of time and effort into the Switch brand, they will not drop it lightly. Another thing is they have carved a pretty nice market for themselves that distances them from both Sony and Microsoft, and pretty much have no real competition, the Steam Deck and powerful handheld PC type devices are Niche at best.

 

[TikiLagoonSam]

Draugoth

My owe belief of the Switch Pro situation has always been.

Switch Pro WAS developed internally at Nintendo. They had games already running on Switch Pro. Games like Bayo 3, TOTK, Mario Rabbids 2, and rumored games like Batman & Borderlands 3. Then COVID hit the world and component shortages happened and Switch Pro was canceled internally.

Nintendo has had to scramble and move new hardware forward. And thus, it is likely that BC could be “cut” to keep cost down on the Switch 2.

Is this how you see it?

Definitely. The only thing is if Switch 2 isn’t BC, it better be waaaay different than the Switch. If its just a Switch with more horsepower, they will catch hell for not making it backwards compatible.

 

[Mozza]

Draugoth

My owe belief of the Switch Pro situation has always been.

Switch Pro WAS developed internally at Nintendo. They had games already running on Switch Pro. Games like Bayo 3, TOTK, Mario Rabbids 2, and rumored games like Batman & Borderlands 3. Then COVID hit the world and component shortages happened and Switch Pro was canceled internally.

Nintendo has had to scramble and move new hardware forward. And thus, it is likely that BC could be “cut” to keep cost down on the Switch 2.

Is this how you see it?

No, it was just the rumor merchants did not want to believe they had got it wrong, so were employing all sorts of mental gymnastics to suggest a Switch Pro was indeed real, but cancelled by Nintendo because of the chip shortage.

 

[TikiLagoonSam]

Since the rumors of a Direct are now true, can we assume the other rumors are true as well?

We are getting a 2D Mario, and a SNES classic remake, perhaps Chrono trigger hd 2d remake and/or a mario rpg remake. This is going to be AMAZING. Nintendo already won 2023

 

[Draugoth]

Nintendo are not going to be making a dedicated home console, so no Blu-ray discs.

It will be a new version of the Switch, with backward compatibility, Nintendo have invested a lot of time and effort into the Switch brand, they will not drop it lightly. Another thing is they have carved a pretty nice market for themselves that distances them from both Sony and Microsoft, and pretty much have no real competition, the Steam Deck and powerful handheld PC type devices are Niche at best.

This is the mostly likely thing too.

Blu Ray would be indicative of a “home console”. I have always thought, Nintendo would try to sell you the Wii U as Switch 2. Except the gamepad would be able to travel outside the “home console”.

Thus allowing Nintendo multiple revenue streams. Being able to sell extra handhelds (Switch like). Games could be either native on the handheld or streamed if too powerful for native.

It's more likely they will make an improved Switch but with bigger game cartridges in order to run games in higher resolution.

Chrono trigger hd 2d remake and/or a mario rpg remak

Not that one.

 

[Nautilus]

Since the rumors of a Direct are now true, can we assume the other rumors are true as well?

We are getting a 2D Mario, and a SNES classic remake, perhaps Chrono trigger hd 2d remake and/or a mario rpg remake. This is going to be AMAZING. Nintendo already won 2023

The 2D Mario and the Super Mario RPG Remake seems credible and likely. The Chrono Trigger one isn't. For Chrono Trigger, go expecting nothing.

 

[jufonuk]

Nintendo Direct June 2023 - Every Announcement And Game Reveal

Mario RPG! Mario Wonder! Mario Kart (sorta)!

www.nintendolife.com

 

[Mozza]

This is the mostly likely thing too.



It's more likely they will make an improved Switch but with bigger game cartridges in order to run games in higher resolution.



Not that one.

The price of micro SD cards has plummeted, 256gb is pretty much for nothing, so hopefully Nintendo could have 32-64gb as a baseline, and look what they can squeeze onto the current Switch carts.

 

[jufonuk]

Switch pro or some firmware to overclock the switch I dunno I’m just guessing

 

[WhiteWaterM00se]

The price of micro SD cards has plummeted, 256gb is pretty much for nothing, so hopefully Nintendo could have 32-64gb as a baseline, and look what they can squeeze onto the current Switch carts.

Draugoth

So, then in both your opinions, BC is likely on the successor to the Switch?

The reasons i didn’t think it was likely i mentioned above. I also figured until recently that the ”gimmick” for Switch 2 is AR. Until Apple bought the company that made Mario Kart Live and Grezzo is now making Apple Arcade games.

 

[genesisblock]

What's gonna top the next Super Mario Odyssey? Super Mario 64 2.0, please?

 

[Draugoth]

Draugoth

So, then in both your opinions, BC is likely on the successor to the Switch?

The reasons i didn’t think it was likely i mentioned above. I also figured until recently that the ”gimmick” for Switch 2 is AR. Until Apple bought the company that made Mario Kart Live and Grezzo is now making Apple Arcade games.

Yes. But Nintendo isnt fan of Game Preservation, so like i said it's more likely going to be locked behind a paywall.

Hope im wrong though.

 

[Woopah]

She does get a lot wrong though, I think most of these people overstate their sources, and a lot is pretty obvious at times.

Whenever you get things from sources, there's always a chance the info the out of date or misunderstood.

To give a recent Emily exampe, last year she wrote that Nintendo had developed a 1 2 Switch sequel and made the main character a horse person. Fast forward a few months and she have been proven to be completely correct, and that's something which is too specific to guess.

 

[Mozza]

Whenever you get things from sources, there's always a chance the info the out of date or misunderstood.

To give a recent Emily exampe, last year she wrote that Nintendo had developed a 1 2 Switch sequel and made the main character a horse person. Fast forward a few months and she have been proven to be completely correct, and that's something which is too specific to guess.

Not suggesting they do not get information from time to time, but Nintendo is pretty tight lipped when it needs to be, most leaks are controlled releases of information. and having info on a sequel to 1 2 Switch is hardly going to be earth shattering. But yes far too specific to not have been leaked to her.

 

[WhiteWaterM00se]

Mozza Woopah Draugoth

So, what are we to make of all these old rumors then? Why was there never a COD or Madden on Switch?

There were ESRB ratings for Batman and Borderlands 3 Switch. Which I assumed were canceled for Switch Pro. (If real).

I know the argument that Nintendo owners only buy Nintendo 1st party…but at some point it becomes a chicken or egg thing. By the end of 2023, the Nintendo Switch install base will be almost the size of the PS4/Xbox One install base combined. And more than double the PS5/Xbox series install base.

I know games take years to develop and with uncertain economic times, I am very surprised companies have not pivoted to promote and try to grow Switch 3rd party sales. Any insight?

 

[Mozza]

Mozza Woopah Draugoth

So, what are we to make of all these old rumors then? Why was there never a COD or Madden on Switch?

There were ESRB ratings for Batman and Borderlands 3 Switch. Which I assumed were canceled for Switch Pro. (If real).

I know the argument that Nintendo owners only buy Nintendo 1st party…but at some point it becomes a chicken or egg thing. By the end of 2023, the Nintendo Switch install base will be almost the size of the PS4/Xbox One install base combined. And more than double the PS5/Xbox series install base.

I know games take years to develop and with uncertain economic times, I am very surprised companies have not pivoted to promote and try to grow Switch 3rd party sales. Any insight?

I have always said it's Nintendo's own software that pushes it's hardware sales, that does not mean that third party games are not important to Nintendo, just not essential.

 

[Trunx81]

30 Minutes Pikmin 4, let´s gooooo!

 

[WhiteWaterM00se]

I have always said it's Nintendo's own software that pushes it's hardware sales, that does not mean that third party games are not important to Nintendo, just not essential.

I understand. But If Nintendo ever wants to grow hardware into safe continual sales generation after generation like Sony, it must grow 3rd party on the platform. If not they are walking a tight rope always. Any misstep could mean disaster.

EDIT: I don’t think Nintendo see‘s all 3rd parties as optional. I firmly believe they know some 3rd party titles specifically are essential to what they do. Minecraft, Fortnite, Rocket League, FIFA, GTA and NBA 2k all seemed essential to me. Likely even ”moneyhatted” by Nintendo. FIFA, I believe is even made by a joint EA/Nintendo dev team.

Surprised Nintendo does not “check boxes” and make sure certain popular IP are represented in some way on the system.

 

[Mozza]

I understand. But If Nintendo ever wants to grow hardware into safe continual sales generation after generation like Sony, it must grow 3rd party on the platform. If not they are walking a tight rope always. Any misstep could mean disaster.

EDIT: I don’t think Nintendo see‘s all 3rd parties as optional. I firmly believe they know some 3rd party titles specifically are essential to what they do. Minecraft, Fortnite, Rocket League, FIFA, GTA and NBA 2k all seemed essential to me. Likely even ”moneyhatted” by Nintendo. FIFA, I believe is even made by a joint EA/Nintendo dev team.

Surprised Nintendo does not “check boxes” and make sure certain popular IP are represented in some way on the system.

Nintendo have, even in the 3DS and Wii U generation they still manages to shift 90 million consoles, which is far more then they would have done competing directly with Sony and Microsoft, with the Switch they have already sold 125 million, without the help of triple AAA games... not sure of your point.

 

[NotMyProblemAnymoreCunt]

 

[Guerilla Munch]

praying for totk playable zelda/bikini armor dlc

1 like = 1 pray

 

[WhiteWaterM00se]

Nintendo have, even in the 3DS and Wii U generation they still manages to shift 90 million consoles, which is far more then they would have done competing directly with Sony and Microsoft, with the Switch they have already sold 125 million, without the help of triple AAA games... not sure of your point.

My point was…Nintendo can not rely on 1st party alone.

While, I see your point. From all accounts Nintendo was a failure during the 3ds/ Wii U era coming off the Wii/DS era. Historically there has been a lot of volatility going from one generation to the next. From NES thru GameCube each generation sold less than the previous.

Nintendo helping 3rd parties become more successful on their platform would in theory lower the risk for Nintendo moving from generation to generation going forward.

 

[Mozza]

Draugoth

So, then in both your opinions, BC is likely on the successor to the Switch?

The reasons i didn’t think it was likely i mentioned above. I also figured until recently that the ”gimmick” for Switch 2 is AR. Until Apple bought the company that made Mario Kart Live and Grezzo is now making Apple Arcade games.

Pretty much nailed on, as well as the online system carrying over, as I said the Switch brand is very good marketing, right from the start it looked clever... so just a more powerful Switch please, the longer of course we wait.... the more power we get by default, unless Nvidia is cooking up some super smart SOC for Nintendo.

 

[DenchDeckard]

Put me on the hype train!!

 

[Woopah]

Not suggesting they do not get information from time to time, but Nintendo is pretty tight lipped when it needs to be, most leaks are controlled releases of information. and having info on a sequel to 1 2 Switch is hardly going to be earth shattering. But yes far too specific to not have been leaked to her.

I doubt Nintnedo purposefully leaked the bad reception to Everybody 12 Switch. Probably Emily has a contact in the Marketing department

Mozza Woopah Draugoth

So, what are we to make of all these old rumors then? Why was there never a COD or Madden on Switch?

There were ESRB ratings for Batman and Borderlands 3 Switch. Which I assumed were canceled for Switch Pro. (If real).

I know the argument that Nintendo owners only buy Nintendo 1st party…but at some point it becomes a chicken or egg thing. By the end of 2023, the Nintendo Switch install base will be almost the size of the PS4/Xbox One install base combined. And more than double the PS5/Xbox series install base.

I know games take years to develop and with uncertain economic times, I am very surprised companies have not pivoted to promote and try to grow Switch 3rd party sales. Any insight?

EA is a bit of a speical because it seems they had a very weird falling out with Nintendo over the Wii U (the rumour is that at one point EA was going to have a significant role in Nintnedo's online system).

For everyone else, the success of Switch after the fualure of Wii U took them by surprise, and some of them have adjusted quickly while others were forecd to adjust by sales numbers.

Right now many third parties are making moves to achieve sales on Switch. However, it can be challenging due to the platform's power/storage constraints. Where Switch fits in the stratgey for each publisher is different. I could give a rundown at some point if anyone was interested.

 

[Mozza]

My point was…Nintendo can not rely on 1st party alone.

While, I see your point. From all accounts Nintendo was a failure during the 3ds/ Wii U era coming off the Wii/DS era. Historically there has been a lot of volatility going from one generation to the next. From NES thru GameCube each generation sold less than the previous.

Nintendo helping 3rd parties become more successful on their platform would in theory lower the risk for Nintendo moving from generation to generation going forward.

Yes they can... only one game out of the top thirty Switch games is an outside publisher, Monster hunter rise, and even that's a Switch exclusive.. I do not see Pokemon as non Nintendo games as they are exclusive as well. and pretty much half owned or so by Nintendo anyways.

Most third party stuff struggles to sell much more than a million copies on the Switch.

 

[Exede]

I think there might be a sliiiiiiiiim chance we might see Metroid 4. Right? Right???

 

[DenchDeckard]

 

[Woopah]

Yes they can... only one game out of the top thirty Switch games is an outside publisher, Monster hunter rise, and even that's a Switch exclusive.. I do not see Pokemon as non Nintendo games as they are exclusive as well. and pretty much half owned or so by Nintendo anyways.

Most third party stuff struggles to sell much more than a million copies on the Switch.

Given that the vast majority of publishers don't reveal sales figures of Switch versions, we have no way of knowing this. The list on wikipedia is not reliable.

 

[Guerilla Munch]

My point was…Nintendo can not rely on 1st party alone.

While, I see your point. From all accounts Nintendo was a failure during the 3ds/ Wii U era coming off the Wii/DS era. Historically there has been a lot of volatility going from one generation to the next. From NES thru GameCube each generation sold less than the previous.

Nintendo helping 3rd parties become more successful on their platform would in theory lower the risk for Nintendo moving from generation to generation going forward.

Nintendo has relied on 1st party alone for almost 30 years

 

[Mozza]

I doubt Nintnedo purposefully leaked the bad reception to Everybody 12 Switch. Probably Emily has a contact in the Marketing department

EA is a bit of a speical because it seems they had a very weird falling out with Nintendo over the Wii U (the rumour is that at one point EA was going to have a significant role in Nintnedo's online system).

For everyone else, the success of Switch after the fualure of Wii U took them by surprise, and some of them have adjusted quickly while others were forecd to adjust by sales numbers.

Right now many third parties are making moves to achieve sales on Switch. However, it can be challenging due to the platform's power/storage constraints. Where Switch fits in the stratgey for each publisher is different. I could give a rundown at some point if anyone was interested.

Not suggesting that leak in particular as it's not massive news, but there have been some very coincidental leaks over the years.

 

[Mozza]

Given that the vast majority of publishers don't reveal sales figures of Switch versions, we have no way of knowing this. The list on wikipedia is not reliable.

Pretty sure it's not miles away, sales data for games is pretty easy to come by, and you are not going to be far off.

 

[Woopah]

Not suggesting that leak in particular as it's not massive news, but there have been some very coincidental leaks over the years.

Which ones do you think were coincidental?

Pretty sure it's not miles away, sales data for games is pretty easy yo come by, and you are not going to be far off.

It will be miles away, the real list and the wikipedia list will be nothing alike. For example, just in FY23 there were 13 third party Switch games that sold over 1 million, but wikipedia won't tell you what those games are.

 

[Mozza]

Which ones do you think were coincidental?

It will be miles away, the real list and the wikipedia list will be nothing alike. For example, just in FY23 there were 13 third party Switch games that sold over 1 million, but wikipedia won't tell you what those games are.

So how far away are you suggesting, and what do you think these third party games ate selling?, I am pretty sure Capcom gave figures for Monster hunter rise.

 

[01011001]

 

[Woopah]

So how far away are you suggesting, and what do you think these third party games ate selling?, I am pretty sure Capcom gave figures for Monster hunter rise.

Well of the 13 third party games which sold over 1 million in FY23, probaly only Minecraft and Montser Hunter Rise are on the list (and even then the chart only has the Japan sales for Minecraft, since thats the market we get figures from. Total sales for Minecraft Switch could be over 10 million.)

So the list is missing over 10 third party million sellers from last fiscal year alone. Add in all the other fiscal years, and all the games which crossed the million sellers mark in more than one year, and you've probably got more then 40 third party million sellers misisng from the list (and 40 is being conservative I think).

 

[Nautilus]

Could lead further credence that the Switch 2 is happening in 2024, and maybe even happening mid 2024. Even then, Ubisoft would be sitting on the game for 2 years. Don't know if that would be viable for them.

 

[Mozza]

Well of the 13 third party games which sold over 1 million in FY23, probaly only Minecraft and Montser Hunter Rise are on the list (and even then the chart only has the Japan sales for Minecraft, since thats the market we get figures from. Total sales for Minecraft Switch could be over 10 million.)

So the list is missing over 10 third party million sellers from last fiscal year alone. Add in all the other fiscal years, and all the games which crossed the million sellers mark in more than one year, and you've probably got more then 40 third party million sellers misisng from the list (and 40 is being conservative I think).

Still not certain how this is suggesting Nintendo's own software is not the main driving factor, of course the third party number will be off, but as you say they do not release figures, so it's all guesswork at the end of the day.

 

[Mozza]

More fuel to the fire........ exciting times for sure.