Haha, LOL, this fight will be..... interesting.
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November 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 8th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
DriftingSpirit
Member
He is faking his death to catch you off guard.
My avatar bet:
XB1 Nov+Dec 2014 ( 2.52m ) > PS4 Nov+Dec 2015
When i made this bet i always said i was not so sure, but only for fun i accepted.
I will probabily loss now
About this NPD, who believe PS4 will sell more than 1.23 million?
At first, i would say PS4 was gonna sell 1.3m (before Oct NPD), but we all predicted a lot more, when i saw only 275k i dropped my prediction to 1.15m, and i made this bet.
I made a mistake xP
BUT, for my dear lucina, i still hope to win.
Nothing's set in stone yet of course, but I gotta say I'm feeling good about my chances...
http://i.imgur.com/ofiS5PX.gif
Nothing's set in stone yet of course, but I gotta say I'm feeling good about my chances...
I knew i shouldn't accept, damn you Elandy.
But i can still win. xD
EDIT: oh, almost forgot
That 1% in china is going to be the different for ps4 to surpass ps2 eh?
3rdamention
Member
I'll avatar bet Sony won November if anyone wants to play lol...One month, avatar bet for giggles...All in good holiday fun...
Primethius
Banned
Quick question as I sit here revising my numbers: we found nothing of value from the Sony PR today, correct?
DriftingSpirit
Member
Aside from it hinting at the next WW shipment/sell through announcement being insane, no.
3rdamention
Member
I'll take the hard bet and say that XB1 takes this month by around 100k or more.
No hat eating though but I could do something avatar related.
I know, it's the hardest bet ever.
I would take that bet, for fun, sure..1 month avatar bet? I think PS4 takes this month...But I can't see Xbox 1 by over 100k.
3rdamention
Member
I'd say the loser should use the following avatar:
That's awesome....Got any old Hindle avatars laying around?
NDP_Mulcair
Banned
Hello, NeoGAF forums.
Here are my predictions for the November 2015 U.S. Games Industry Sales Report:
[PS4] 950K
[XB1] 950K
[3DS] 380K
[WIU] 230K
Here are my predictions for the November 2015 U.S. Games Industry Sales Report:
[PS4] 950K
[XB1] 950K
[3DS] 380K
[WIU] 230K
Primethius
Banned
I'll take that bet. I'm not entirely behind it but it should make for an interesting bet.
Edit: Just FYI, I already regret this decision lol.
CosmicQueso
Member
I'm taking the under.
Not fair! Made me shoot water out my nose. What % of China does it take to get that avatar to more people??
I'm with you, Mr. NDP. I went for the tie as well.
I'd say the loser should use the following avatar:
Not fair! Made me shoot water out my nose. What % of China does it take to get that avatar to more people??
I'm with you, Mr. NDP. I went for the tie as well.
Yall aint right for this lol
Thanks for you'r predictions like usual George!
Also, wanna be called Mulcair or George? Just asking. :3
NDP_Mulcair
Banned
A slight modification to my predictions: I accidentally mistyped. I intended on predicting 380K for Nintendo 3DS instead of 500K.
This is because I believe that demand for 'Nintendo New 3DS' is not sufficient to stave off natural end-of-life hardware cycles as Nintendo NX looms around the corner.
The smartphone / tablet market continues to supplant the handheld market, and I don't believe Nintendo has done a sufficient job of promoting and supporting the Nintendo New 3DS to capture the holiday retail consumer base (i.e. diehard Nintendo fans will have invested in the New 3DS throughout the year and the rest are distracted by more compelling options).
Nintendo and Level 5's partnership title "Yo-Kai Watch" will likely demonstrate highly disappointing performance in the USA retail market, and "Super Mystery Dungeon" won't be particularly compelling either.
That said, I'm going with 380K instead of a more significant drop because I believe that the New Nintendo 3DS's presence will buoy the console, but to a more limited extent than what many NeoGAF forum members are predicting.
Thanks for you'r predictions like usual George!
Also, wanna be called Mulcair or George? Just asking. :3
I'm still NPD_George!
NDP_Mulcair is but a clever alias.
Is this also why you have the WiiU down over last year? Their bundle seems to be selling relatively well
Welfare
Member
IMO, that, and the Wii U might have a better BF than last year, but the rest of the month had no major releases compared to Smash. If it is up YOY that would be impressive.
Hey George! We hope you will be around on Thursday to share what you can and also give us your analysis, it was very much appreciated last month I have to say.
And even If you couldn't share anything this month, I think it'll still be lots of fun and ... Interesting.
Well there's Splatoon that released earlier this year and is a part of the new bundle with Smash. Seems like a pretty great deal for people who haven't picked up a WiiU yet. Don't get me wrong I'm not saying it will do gangbusters but I could definitely see it being up 20-30% over last year given what we know so far. I mean thus is really the system's first big discount value wise with the bundling.
I dunno, NDP_Mulcair, those PS4 and XB1 seem rather low.
Particularly for the PS4.
hydrophilic attack
Member
Well, there's this:
I'm in a difficult time zone for NPD though, so I won't be able to see the results until the day after.
Can you give us an idea of your thought process behind your PS4 and XB1 predictions? With the OS4 seeing a $100 discount compared to last year and having bundles with two of the biggest third party games of the season it's hard to believe it wouldn't at least break 1 million sales.
Why on earth would anyone make that bet? The chances of RotTR charting are infinitesimal. Easy win for you.
NDP_Mulcair
Banned
RexNovis and Welfare,
Promotional online sales at one retailer can't always be construed to the broader U.S. Retail landscape.
This November the Nintendo Wii U deeply suffers from a lack of compelling, must-have software releases, including a very sparse third-party lineup and only 'Mario Tennis: Ultra Smash' and 'Animal Crossing: Amiibo Festival' in terms of new releases (which will have a muted impact at best) to woo customers outside of its legacy software.
That's why I believe that the platform will be down year-over-year. If a marquee title such as Super Mario Maker launched in November clearly the platform would exhibit gains, but not when it has the 6-months-old Splatoon, 1-year-old Super Smash Bros., and the 2-months-old Super Mario Maker as its anchors.
I believe that October's 'Yoshi's Woolly World' and the new 'Mario Tennis: Ultra Smash' and 'Amiibo Festival' will all be completely ineffective at attracting new customers to the Wii U ecosystem and hardware will be driven exclusively by legacy adoption, hence that minor year-over-year decline.
Man-is-Obsolete
Member
All of that is true, however, you are ignoring the $249 smash and Splatoon bundle.
Welfare
Member
I agree with your post. About this point, I was saying that even with a "better" BF, which might have or might not have happened, there is no compelling software that would've pushed the system in November compared to last year.
I'm curious, George.... are you Canadian? Seems interesting to me that you decided to name your alias after a Canadian politician.
NDP_Mulcair
Banned
I agree.
Overall the Black Friday weekend was soft as shoppers stuck to their lists with smaller baskets YOY, partially offset by further migration of traffic to online before the weekend.
For example, ShopperTrak shows $12.1 billion in-store sales for Thursday and Friday vs. $12.29 billion last year.
RetailNext indicates that overall sales for Thursday and Friday fell 1.5% on flat consumer traffic, and average spending per shopper decreased 1.4%.
In-store sales make up the significant majority of video game hardware sales, so just because corporation PRs (like Sony and Microsoft) are carefully designed in a way that paints them in the best possible light, doesn't mean that there is major growth in the US retail landscape for video game consoles.
Fair enough. To clarify my expectations weren't based upon the Target online retail PR at all. My thought process is that the bundle they put out will give them somewhat of a push considering it has two of the "must have" titles for the system bundled in. Like I said I'm not expecting a blowout or anything but I could certainly see the bundle carrying them to modest gains over last year as it is a compelling package for budget minded shoppers with it being the lowest priced bundle and having two games included.
NDP_Mulcair
Banned
I believe that demand for Nintendo's Wii U console is relatively inelastic due to its small retail footprint.
So the $20 MSRP discount to $279.99 (available at Target and Walmart for $249.99) will serve to only help the Wii U match last year's performance instead of exceed it.
Keep in mind that the Wii U sold 223K in November 2013 and 240K in November 2014, despite Black Friday discounts and the release of compelling software such as Super Mario 3D World and Super Smash Bros. (and such compelling releases are notoriously absent this year), further playing into an inelastic demand model for this month.
That's the great thing about NeoGAF forum predictions. We can have a wide variety of opinions and agree to disagree about our conjecture.
serversurfer
Member
So basically, even if the new bundle/price point is wildly popular, you don't think it's likely retailers would've ordered enough stock to allow for much of a YOY increase? That'd make sense. If they keep the price point and the demand sticks around, it'd probably be a while before we see any "huge" effect, as they'll need to ramp up distribution. Yes?
Absolutely. Always nice to have a back and forth about things. Thanks for explaining your logic behind the matter. I could see it going either way. I suppose it depends on how appealing holiday shoppers find Splatoon and Smash. I think my predictions are tainted a bit by personal bias in that way as I, personally, find that a very compelling deal and there have been some hints that it has sold better than expected. WHether that is enough to break historical precedent remains to be seen. You have made some excellent points and they have made me adjust my thinking on the matter but I still think we might see some YoY growth albeit likely minor.
Welfare
Member
Really, the only aspect of the Wii U bundle that would bring in new customers would be the new price. Smash is 1 year old now, its selling power is gone. Splatoon already had a bundle in May and sales were still down MOM from April and the June boost was not that good (Weekly sales going from an average 10.5k to 14k).
Mario Maker replacing one of the two would of made the bundle look more appealing as that was just released in September.
3rdamention
Member
Alright, its on! I dont make avatar bets, I have had my Revanche avatar for a very very long time! However, its the holidays, and its all in good fun! Lets just keep the avatars funny and silly, and not political or something lol.
And we can make it straight up if you want! Xbox vs PS4. It doesn't have to be 100k if you want! We dont need a handicap!
serversurfer
Member
Hell, I'm tempted by that bundle and I don't even have time to play my PS4! lol
Obliterator
Member
I'll be pretty shocked if either PS4 or Bone is under a million personally but anything is possible I suppose.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Yeah, that George prediction just threw me for a loop. Since predicting here, my expectations have not been met for NPD. So, I decided to adjust down a bit for everything. If my predictions are still too optimistic......
serversurfer
Member
Keep in mind that they only sold about two million combined last year. I think both being comfortably over a million would be fairly surprising.
Of course, I don't really do this prediction stuff like y'all do. /shrug
Obliterator
Member
I expect PS4 + Bone hardware combined up YoY
slavesnyder
Member
It's great that George is participating. Don't know if these numbers are better than other guesses because of reasons.
Maybe he is trying to play tricks and watch how he can influence other peoples' predictions with giving very low numbers. But that's totally fine.
Both under a million would be shameful (though not impossible). But a tie between PS4 and XB1? I just cannot see this because of preorders for Battlefront and COD bundle and lowest PS4 price ever.
If there is still someone out there waiting for a last minute bet, I would say:
PS4 sold at least 200k more than Xbox1 in November 2015 NPD.
Avatar bet, 1 month.
Xbox: Expected
PS4: Shameful, disastrous, red alert
Interesting™ prediction from Pachter on SIFTD games. He says COD Blops III on next gen only will sell 50% more than Star Wars Battlefront (next gen only obviously) for Nov NPD.
Also claims sales will be split 50:50 for Blops III in November and December whereas Star Wars will do 1/3 in Nov then 2/3 of sales in December as we lead in to the new movie and the game is given in greater numbers as a gift.
He also pegged COD at a potential 3million seller for its debut.
Either way I think those numbers combined with bundles should help PS4 extensively and to a some extent XB1.
I agree.
I'd be very surprised if the PS4 didn't get over a million and the XB1 should be in and around there.
Would SalesGaf consider <1million a poor effort for either console considering the price cuts and discounts?
Also claims sales will be split 50:50 for Blops III in November and December whereas Star Wars will do 1/3 in Nov then 2/3 of sales in December as we lead in to the new movie and the game is given in greater numbers as a gift.
He also pegged COD at a potential 3million seller for its debut.
Either way I think those numbers combined with bundles should help PS4 extensively and to a some extent XB1.
I agree.
I'd be very surprised if the PS4 didn't get over a million and the XB1 should be in and around there.
Would SalesGaf consider <1million a poor effort for either console considering the price cuts and discounts?
SolarMystic
Member
Will be interesting to see if Xbox One is up or down from last year Nov. I expect Ps4 to have a comfortable 200k+ lead this year Nov.