Chobel
Member
Man! Looks I missed a good bit of fun.
Dammit! I could have used a better avatar XD.
Dammit! I could have used a better avatar XD.
November 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 8th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
NDP_Mulcair
Banned
Keep in mind that I'm predicting both consoles to flirt just shy of 1 million for November, which is still an incredible feat that indicates a massively-accelerated sell-through at U.S. Retail from previous months.
Last November, the Sony PlayStation 4 sold 831K. In November 2013, the Xbox One sold 909K. A sub-1 million November close to 1 million isn't unprecedented for the two consoles and certainly lies within the realm of possibility.
The idea behind a sub-1 million PS4 and Xbox One bet stems from an observation that a temporarily lower price simply isn't as compelling as it once was.
My argument depends on a relative malaise at Black Friday retail as reported by retail trackers and other channels, along with my belief that company PR was referencing revenue comparable sales and/or shipments into the retail channel and worldwide Black Friday performance (where the Black Friday institution is gaining prominence) to paint themselves in the best possible light.
PR has historically been very tricky on how it exploits ambiguous wording so I refuse to trust any of it insofar that it accurately represents U.S. sell-through at retail in terms of growth.
And, the Sony PlayStation 4 had a 7% year-over-year decline in the October 2015 U.S. Games Industry Report despite officially lowering its MSRP to $349.99 on October 9th, perhaps indicating to us that temporary price cuts to $299.99 wouldn't have the same level of appeal as they once did in the 2015 video games market.
slavesnyder
Member
Fair points, and thanks for the detailed explanation. Maybe I am too optimistic.
Not giving out detailed PR about US sales but hiding it in clouds of blah is making me a bit nervous.
About the PS4 decline: I just think many sales that actually happened in October will be counted November because they were preorders for the Battlefront and COD bundles.
Also, I belive the industry taught the consumer to wait just for Black Friday. This one day (well, several days actually) sucked a lot of air out of October, making this month just another pre-season mediocricy.
But in the end you might be right and I will learn my lesson the hardest way possible: By losing points in the NPD-predictions-game.
Welp
Wait, didn't Xbox One sell ~1200k last November? Or are you only counting retail store sales, and leaving out online sales?
Thanks.
slavesnyder
Member
He said: Last November, the Sony PlayStation 4 sold 831K. In November 2013, the Xbox One sold 909K
Tivor Tontomo
Member
Highly unlikely either will be below 1 million.
The PS4 had a price drop and arguable had bigger games in terms of drawing in an audience than last year, and last year it was not far off from 1 million.
The Xbox One had more of what they had last year with big multiplats and exclusives with franchises with more drawing power as well, on top of a Price drop, bundle variety, and gift cards.
If any of these two ended up under 1 million I would start really questioning what the heck went wrong and why neither were able to best last year which while arguably false, the consensus on last year was the Xbox One had a fire sale with one multiplat and the PS4 had no games.
Neither which is true. You have better multiplats and MORE, especially for marketing rights, you have bigger exclusive IPS, though PS4 is low on this front they still got some big names with their marketing deals, temporary lower price than last year for both, gift cards. commercials and commercials, I'm telling you some, on here are syaing under 1 million would not be bad, yes it would.
it would be really bad. Especially if both were under 1 million and Sony and MS had plenty of stock so I'm sure they would be just as shocked if they went under that as I would be.
The PS4 had a price drop and arguable had bigger games in terms of drawing in an audience than last year, and last year it was not far off from 1 million.
The Xbox One had more of what they had last year with big multiplats and exclusives with franchises with more drawing power as well, on top of a Price drop, bundle variety, and gift cards.
If any of these two ended up under 1 million I would start really questioning what the heck went wrong and why neither were able to best last year which while arguably false, the consensus on last year was the Xbox One had a fire sale with one multiplat and the PS4 had no games.
Neither which is true. You have better multiplats and MORE, especially for marketing rights, you have bigger exclusive IPS, though PS4 is low on this front they still got some big names with their marketing deals, temporary lower price than last year for both, gift cards. commercials and commercials, I'm telling you some, on here are syaing under 1 million would not be bad, yes it would.
it would be really bad. Especially if both were under 1 million and Sony and MS had plenty of stock so I'm sure they would be just as shocked if they went under that as I would be.
Man-is-Obsolete
Member
George obviously has a wealth of resources but I think that at times makes one's predictions much more conservative. His reasoning is that the price drop in October didn't realize a boost in YoY sales but most would say that was because two monster bundles were looming in November in addition to likely better deals on Black Friday so most held their purchases to November.
biglittleps
Member
[3DS] 400K
[PS4] 1250K
[WIU] 280K
[XB1] 1050K
[PS4] 1250K
[WIU] 280K
[XB1] 1050K
Primethius
Banned
Yea, I'll take that no handicap. A fun avatar sounds good.
Primethius
Banned
I almost didn't recognize you
And I have a feeling that in a couple of days, you might not again, lol.
CosmicQueso
Member
I'm going 2 million combined on PS4 and Xone. Sr. Jorge explains the rationale well, as always.
We all want the numbers to come in "best ever" and "huge" because we are gaming zealots, but in reality, 2 million combined is itself a fantastic result. Given the time where we are in the cycle, holding flat yoy across the two to last November would also be a great result.
Guess we'll find out in a couple days, but if we get 2.3m or more combined I'd be very surprised. Not because 'consoles are doomed' but because 2 million in November combined would be a really strong result.
We all want the numbers to come in "best ever" and "huge" because we are gaming zealots, but in reality, 2 million combined is itself a fantastic result. Given the time where we are in the cycle, holding flat yoy across the two to last November would also be a great result.
Guess we'll find out in a couple days, but if we get 2.3m or more combined I'd be very surprised. Not because 'consoles are doomed' but because 2 million in November combined would be a really strong result.
Mister Megative
Banned
Why the resigned response? All respect in the world to George, but it's a prediction based on personal opinion derived from observation. Not to be taken as a sign that he's somehow already seen the numbers or he knows something you don't. He could very well be right; he could very well be wrong (I personally think he is, but we'll see). He's just as in the dark about the numbers as we are.
Last november had Xbox One at $349 ($329 in BF) and PS4 at $399. This november had both systems at $349 ($299 in BF).
You think that lower price was just to maintain sales flat YoY?
3rdamention
Member
Hahaha yes well nobody to blame but yourself there.
ethomaz
Banned
Believe
Mister Megative
Banned
Ok. I really believe PS4 will come in over a million, but.....dayum. You're so bold and daring! Such a lust for predictions......
igordennis
Member
If both of them fall short of 1 million like george predicted this NPD thread will go into overdrive and be in the top 3 most commented NPD thread for sure.
Cornbread78
Member
Cornbread78
Member
[PS4] 1275K
[XB1] 1050K
[3DS] 350K
[WIU] 300K
These are probably waaay off though.
[XB1] 1050K
[3DS] 350K
[WIU] 300K
These are probably waaay off though.
ethomaz
Banned
Mister Megative
Banned
Sub 1million for X1 wouldn't be terrible. 900+ is a great number. It'll almost certainly be down YoY. I'll be legit surprised if PS4 is, however.
If someone would predict sub 300k for both PS4 and XB1 in October, he was crazy. At the end, we all know what's heppened.
Some guys need to understand that nothing is impossible. Many guys think is a given for PS4 be up YOY this holidays... like in October. And at the end PS4 was down YOY.
And this was just an example, another thing nobody expected was the Halo bomba at < 1 million in october NPD ( before UK sales, after that many guys including me predicted < 1m for Halo, but before 150k in UK 80% predicted over 2 million, and all the rest never expect so low)
So, keep in you'r mind that nothing is impossible, could be unlucky, almost crazy, but if we will see < 1 million for PS4, i won't be surprised.
That said, i still expect > 1 million very easy for PS4, and i have 1.3 million in my prediction.
Some guys need to understand that nothing is impossible. Many guys think is a given for PS4 be up YOY this holidays... like in October. And at the end PS4 was down YOY.
And this was just an example, another thing nobody expected was the Halo bomba at < 1 million in october NPD ( before UK sales, after that many guys including me predicted < 1m for Halo, but before 150k in UK 80% predicted over 2 million, and all the rest never expect so low)
So, keep in you'r mind that nothing is impossible, could be unlucky, almost crazy, but if we will see < 1 million for PS4, i won't be surprised.
That said, i still expect > 1 million very easy for PS4, and i have 1.3 million in my prediction.
Tivor Tontomo
Member
Both combined did over 2 million last year.
MS and PS4 are both in better positions this year than last year and have more reasons to buy each system than last year.
Below one million for either would be very odd.
This is true. Last month shocked alot of us.
Primethius
Banned
I think the lack of positive PR (or rather, it's focus on WW in instances) along with the reports of Black Friday being down retail wise overall certainly points to a strong possibility that the numbers, while good, aren't going to be terribly impressive.
However a sub 1 million PS4 month combined with the October numbers would be an awful result and very telling of the current market.
NDP_Mulcair
Banned
Combined November performances:
PS3 + 360 (2009) = 1.53 million
Xbox 360 = 820K
PlayStation 3 = 710K
PS3 + 360 (2010) = 1.90 million
PlayStation 3 = 530K
PS3 + 360 (2011) = 2.58 million
PlayStation 3 = 894K
PS3 + 360 (2012) = 2.02 million
PlayStation 3 = 762K
PS4 + XBO (2013) = 2.05 million
Xbox One = 909K
PS4 + XBO (2014) = 2.06 million
PlayStation 4 = 831K
My predictions:
PS4 + XBO (2015) = 1.90 million
Every single Black Friday / November in recent memory has had one primary console sell below the 1 million mark.
And, we have seen 1.9 million combined (or lower) for Black Friday / November before multiple times. It's only slightly below the typical 2.0 million.
GifGafIsTheBestGaf
Member
n3ds xl is going for 175$ on amazon, better than BF (i think)
EventHorizon
Member
November NPD 2015 Predictions
[3DS] 430K
[PS4] 1300K
[WIU] 230K
[XB1] 960K
NDP_Mulcair makes a good case for the combined sales of the top console leaders should be around 2 million. I'm going higher for two reasons.
1) PS4 sales shifting from October to November due to the highly desired PS4 CoD and Battlefront bundles being known but not offered for sale in October
2) The breaking of the $300 boundary having an extra psychological kick.
[3DS] 430K
[PS4] 1300K
[WIU] 230K
[XB1] 960K
NDP_Mulcair makes a good case for the combined sales of the top console leaders should be around 2 million. I'm going higher for two reasons.
1) PS4 sales shifting from October to November due to the highly desired PS4 CoD and Battlefront bundles being known but not offered for sale in October
2) The breaking of the $300 boundary having an extra psychological kick.
PhineasRed
Neo Member
[3DS] 340K
[PS4] 1040K
[WIU] 310K
[XB1] 980K
[PS4] 1040K
[WIU] 310K
[XB1] 980K
serversurfer
Member
I mostly agree with you two, though while you both correctly feel that 2M consoles is simply a lot to sell in November, my reasoning goes a bit deeper.
I don't see much increased demand overall, because the entry point isn't significantly lower than it was last year. Last year, if you wanted a console and some extra stuff for ~$300, you had an option. This year, you have two options at that price point, but no options that are significantly lower than that. So last year, we were attracting all of the people willing to spend at least $300, and this year, we were attracting all of the people willing to spend at least $300. I suspect both groups to be roughly the same size.
That said, Bone did have a significant price advantage over the PS4 last year. It's likely that a lot of people walked in to the store in 2014 with $300 to purchase a PS4, and walked with a Bone instead, because that's what they could afford. House said the reaction to the 2014 Bone deals caught Sony a bit off-guard, and it affected their November results, so it seems he was seeing a fair bit of substitution in the numbers. With no significant price advantage for the Bone this year, I expect PS4 sales to increase significantly, but mostly at the cost of the Bone.
Of course, there were people last year who had $300 to spend on a PS4, and weren't willing to settle for anything else. Those buyers will show up for their PS4 this year, and that's where your growth is gonna come from. So the question then becomes, "Just how many have been holding out for a $300 PS4?" "Lots," would be my guess, but I really have no idea how many that would be. They combined for 2.06M last year. Could they combine for 2.2M this year? Maybe, but that's a pretty significant jump. Then again, the NDC bundle at $300 already appears to be the best-selling console SKU of all time, so maybe they'll do 2.5M. /shrug
But when doing your splits, remember that PS4 will be eating Bone's portion of the pie at a pretty good rate, and any growth will come almost entirely from the PS4's column, since the Bone isn't really a whole lot cheaper than it was last year. Oh, I also don't think the PS4's October results are really the harbinger that George fears; I'm with those who think a lot of October demand got shifted to the CoD and SW bundles in November.
-----------------------------------
Somewhat OT, but I know NPD track by week. Do they also publish "unofficial" weeklies and/or dailies? I know the monthly numbers are the official numbers, but are there any best-estimates offered in between?
Tivor Tontomo
Member
This is pointless because we are comparing the current gen tot he current gen.
Last year was only barely bigger than the year before combined, because of lack of real customer pulling games, and one side having cheaper prices to make up for that.
This year we have a lot more bundles, bigger games, cheaper prices on both sides with incentives, I find it likely that if your prediction comes true than together both will be down yoy which doesn't make any sense to me given the climate and already high BF announcements from MS and Sony.
It would be a shock to see either below 1 million imo. Because it doesn't add up. Even if there was a 500k gap from either the Xbox one or the PS4 I still expect the lsoer to be over 1 million, there is just too much this year in order for either or both as you predicted, to sell less than that.
Mister Megative
Banned
Take this as you will: according to the Amazon yearly, the UC 299 bundle is now the top-selling console on Amazon for the entire year at number 11. The closest console behind is the vanilla PS4 at number 40.
I say 2.4 million combined.
Yeah, should be really amazing to know the weekly sales, just like in Japan with Media Create and Famitsu.
For example, i'm alwasy wonder how huge was the boost of XB1 in 2014.
We know it outsold PS4 the last week of October, and then has tripled the sales, should be really cool to know the numbers.
Also, wonder how were the numbers in the E3 week, since we know XB1 has sold more than PS4.
All in... I like that
~2.4M sounds like a reasonable guess. Really anything between 1.8-2.5 is reasonable. Anything over 2.5M and we are talking about a very successful month for HW (Sony's best November in a really, really long time... maybe ever).
NDP_Mulcair
Banned
It's not pointless.
For a very long time at least one Sony or Microsoft primary console has been below 1 million for November despite Black Friday deals. So if one of them hits below 1 million it will be just like every other year in recent history. Not a shock in the slightest.
Bundles are ubiquitous in terms of console sales nowadays and I believe that market malaise in 2015 evidenced in recent NPD reports is being understated by many NeoGaf forum members which holds greater weight than others are expecting.
If my prediction is true PS4 will be up year-over-yesr while Xbox will suffer declines. Please don't distort my predictions.
CosmicQueso
Member
No doubt.
Whatever man, we'll find out in a couple days. 2.0m vs. 2.2m, not very meaningful in the grand scheme of the gen.