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NPD Sales Results for February 2015 [Nintendo Numbers, Majora's, MH4, ~XB1]

Never mind the rest of the inanity of this post (note: playing FPS with dual analog is inferior to infrared, and playing virtual sports are often improved by motion controllers, as you're going to see if VR takes off). Are you honestly trying to argue that the wii ecosystem (gaming console) in any way matches that of mobile? Good lord, are you 12? Do you have any idea what the ps2, ps1 or any successful gaming console constitutes of in terms of library? Hint: it involves a lot of software you don't like. Almost none of your post is analytically relevant.

my point was that wii was built on the same idea as mobile gaming, simple low budget games making huge profits with low end hardware for gaming, thats how third party's treated the wii, cause of nintendo hardware decision
 
We know it sold other 10,000 copies in January, and (to be more accurate), back in December it was <135,000, not 135,000 (digital excluded). It was probably around that, though. I hope we get some hints about how much it sold in February too :p

why ask for monthly updates, ask for updates on older titles instead
 

StevieP

Banned
my point was that wii was built on the same idea as mobile gaming, simple low budget games making huge profits with low end hardware for gaming, thats how third party's treated the wii, cause of nintendo hardware decision

No. Mobile gamers aren't graduating to consoles, and they expect cheap or free software. The mobile market is drastically different from the console market, of which the wii was a part of.
 

Moneal

Member
No. Mobile gamers aren't graduating to consoles, and they expect cheap or free software. The mobile market is drastically different from the console market, of which the wii was a part of.

they were not saying the market was the same. just the approach. read the post you quoted again.
 
This is such a terrible argument.

It's like saying everyone who bought a PSP was a casual user and didn't buy a PS Vita because they're only casual gamers.

I'm not saying the majority of sales on Wii weren't from a casual user base and that the console sold on hype, it very much did. But to imply that 100 million users who bought the Wii are all casual and will not buy any other console is wrong.



Where the hell do you buy your games? I've never paid more than £35 for a PS4 game.

Actually, its £50. Its at Game. Obviously I don't pay those prices though :). Though I did for Bloodborne :/

Because numbers aren't public, so the best we can do is extrapolate from what info we get;
- at the start of last gen it wasn't just PS3 + 360; it was PS3 + 360 + PS2, and we know that 360 and PS3 numbers this gen have fallen off a cliff.
- A stagnant industry is - by definition - not a healthy one
- Link for software tie ratios
- software revenue falling; the last x months of NPD results stating YoY decline in software + overall lack of retail releases + aforementioned collapse of last gen sales

-the collapse of last gen may be due to the longer life cycle and consequent sudden uptake of the current gen. Don't see how this supports your "thesis" especially when PS360 LTDs > Ps2's LTD and PS360 are still selling in the US.
-Are you saying that the only healthy industry is one that is growing? Disagree.
-
Total retail software is higher, but that's also a function of the much greater hardware sales. The tie ratio itself is lower, not including digital (of course).

Tie Ratios:
360 @ 16 months - 5.4
PS3 @ 16 months - 4.4
PS2 @ 16 months - ~5

XB1 @ 14 months (i.e. after December) - 3.9
PS4 @ 14 months (i.e. after December) - 3.7

We've been over this. PS4 has an install base far higher than 360's and its faster rate of selling will result in a lower tie ratio.

-NPD do not track digital and as I said you now have DLC and MT. I also think software comparisons are quite fickle as a large part of them depend on the release schedule.
 

groshkar

Member
No it doesn't. Software is software. You don't go and say "well the ps2 didn't sell that much software because the success of sing star doesn't count and sony bundled socom a bunch of times". It's not a challenge at all.

That's certainly one way to look at it.

Most of the detailed reports I've seen are very much interested in genre, price point and store front, however. If I'm making a $60, stand alone retail, FPS, does the collapse in the market for under $20, controller pack in, party games affect my sales expectations, marketing and budget decisions?
 

heidern

Junior Member
The theory I would propose would be that a large chunk of the Wii audience in the US switched to the 360 with the launch of the Kinect (thanks largely to both advertising and a lack of games for the Wii), who then got exposed to traditional console gaming through the rest of the 360's library.

Kinect was direct competitor to the Wii so was an obvious natural successor for that audience, although some exposure to traditional gaming already happened on the Wii since it had the likes of Call Of Duty, Madden, Resident Evil etc.

However PS2+Xbox was ~185M and PS3+360 was ~160M. If a chunk of the 360 audience were Wii graduates then that means the contraction in the traditional Sony/MS audience was more severe than thought in this last generation. If there is further attrition in the traditional audience and/or the Wii/Kinect gamers leave or have left the market(hence MS dumping Kinect) then that would lead this gen to contract further probable to between 110M-140M.
 

Artorias

Banned
people keep on arguing about the wii, as if was healthy for the industry, this really depends how you look at things, this was not a traditional console, it was a repackaged GC with motion controls, it didn't sell cause it had all the great third party's games and Nintendo, it didn't sell cause it was a huge jump in power compared to it's predecessor, most of the thirdparty games that sold on it were shovelware, it really sold cause of motion controls, people went crazy for it, now nobody cares, its not something i would judge a console industry being healthy as, cause the wii wasn't about what gamers want from tradition consoles it didn't fit that trend at all.

Good lord, learn to write properly so your shitpost can be understood.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
Hell, The Order: 1886 is still in the region of £55 on the High Street here (Game/HMV).

(PS for other discussion see edit in my previous post for an example graph).

Untitled-5_zpschat0yr7.jpg


Please note that Gen 5 is not included here hence lower sales of Gen 6 vs when Gen 7 comes in.
 
I can't believe this myth is still so commonly parroted on GAF of all places
Seriously, a statement like that borders on the offensive since it's basically a lie that's been adressed in the past. And one would expect a better degree or quality of discourse in a sales thread.
 

Artorias

Banned
Seriously, a statement like that borders on the offensive since it's basically a lie that's been adressed in the past. And one would expect a better degree or quality of discourse in a sales thread.

At least it seems to be mostly fanboys who repeat this stuff, and based on the posts many of them seem to be very young and simply unable to accept that Nintendo demolished the competition last gen.

It doesn't excuse it, but it does explain it a bit.
 
-the collapse of last gen may be due to the longer life cycle and consequent sudden uptake of the current gen. Don't see how this supports your "thesis" especially when PS360 LTDs > Ps2's LTD and PS360 are still selling in the US.

Why on earth are you only looking at PS2 LTD? Or are GC and Xbox owners now being consigned to the unpeople category along with Wii owners?

Ps2+XB+GC > PS360, and PS360 might be still selling, but its pretty clear that any future sales are not going to change that.

Lets compare February 2008 to February 2015 as comparative points in each generations respective lifespan.
Let's exclude the Wii sales entirely because reasons.

Feb 2008: total "core" gaming hardware sold that month ~888k (PS2 + PS3 + 360 only)
Feb 2015: total "core" gaming hardware sold that month ~630k (PS4 + Xbone)
Hell, lets pretend that the 360 and PS3 sold 75k each (when its hugely doubtful they did anything like as high as that) and add the WiiU into that: we still only get 875k which is still a contraction.

-Are you saying that the only healthy industry is one that is growing? Disagree.

...Seriously?
The population of the human race is growing, if an entertainment industry cannot even match that growth it is in decline.

I also think software comparisons are quite fickle as a large part of them depend on the release schedule.

Publishers give significantly more of a shit about software revenue than they do hardware sales.
 

N.Domixis

Banned
I can't believe this myth is still so commonly parroted on GAF of all places

What are you talking about? THAT was a demographic that wii appealed to that is now lost for who knows how long. None of the current consoles would appeal to them. Wii's success was because it appealed to new people that never cared about gaming before that.
 

Alcibiades

Member
Wii had a healthy tie ratio even using just NPD figures (which I don't think counted Wii Sports but did count Wii Play):

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/...e_Software_Sales_Keeping_Up_With_Hardware.php

tie-ratios-march-2011.png


So everyone bought Wii Play, that still leaves an almost 6-to-1 tie ratio. And yeah people bought Wii Fit and Wii Sports Resort, but how is that different from people buying fitness games on other consoles, even before Kinect?

PS-X and PS2 had plenty of fitness and casual sports games, should they not be counted? (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barbie_Super_Sports)

No reason IMO not to count the Wii when comparing generations.
 

N.Domixis

Banned
At least it seems to be mostly fanboys who repeat this stuff, and based on the posts many of them seem to be very young and simply unable to accept that Nintendo demolished the competition last gen.

It doesn't excuse it, but it does explain it a bit.

I never implied or said that, wii won last gen fare and square, I don't care who it appealed too or if it died to quickly, it won. What does annoy me is when people say xbox 360 won. In terms of sales its wii.
 
I never implied or said that, wii won last gen fare and square, I don't care who it appealed too or if it died to quickly, it won. What does annoy me is when people say xbox 360 won. In terms of sales its wii.

This makes no sense, because 1) 360 did end up winning in the US and 2) nobody says this outside an NPD thread anyway
 

StevieP

Banned
What are you talking about? THAT was a demographic that wii appealed to that is now lost for who knows how long. None of the current consoles would appeal to them. Wii's success was because it appealed to new people that never cared about gaming before that.

It appealed to everyone. That's why it sold the most and also sold a healthy amount of software. 900 million pieces werent bought by grandmas looking for virtual bowling simulators.
 

USC-fan

Banned
Is either ps360 tracking enough to overtake wii ww? We still dont have $99 sku yet for either console. Last time I saw the were around 90m compare 100m of wii. Seems very doable.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
Is either ps360 tracking enough to overtake wii ww? We still dont have $99 sku yet for either console. Last time I saw the were around 90m compare 100m.

No. Both the Xbox 360 and PS3 will barely exceed 90 million units where as the Wii will reach 101.5m units.
 

ascii42

Member
Is either ps360 tracking enough to overtake wii ww? We still dont have $99 sku yet for either console. Last time I saw the were around 90m compare 100m.

Not anymore. If either had done a better job of getting their price down, they probably could have, but both have basically collapsed.
 

heidern

Junior Member
That's certainly one way to look at it.

Most of the detailed reports I've seen are very much interested in genre, price point and store front, however. If I'm making a $60, stand alone retail, FPS, does the collapse in the market for under $20, controller pack in, party games affect my sales expectations, marketing and budget decisions?

Interesting question. Directly you'd say no. But indirectly perhaps not being able to obtain millions in revenue by selling a million units of casual fare like Carnival Games means you can't afford to budget money towards Bioshock 3 and have to cut back on budget and AAA or even mid tier games/development teams.
 

StevieP

Banned
Is either ps360 tracking enough to overtake wii ww? We still dont have $99 sku yet for either console. Last time I saw the were around 90m compare 100m of wii. Seems very doable.

It's not possible, and there aren't avenues of cost reduction for modern consoles that allow them to be sufficiently profitable anywhere near that dollar amount.. Outside of firesales clearances (and wii) consoles will likely never again hit $99. We won't ever again come across something like the ps2, in my opinion. What you're talking about is a pipe dream.
 

USC-fan

Banned
Not anymore. If either had done a better job of getting their price down, they probably could have, but both have basically collapsed.
Sony has supported the consoles for many years past releasing a new console. Ps2 didnt hit $99 until 2 years after the ps3 launched.

If they need 10m more its not crazy to think it will. Ps3 still has major releases coming from japan.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
Sony has supported the consoles for many years past releasing a new console. Ps2 didnt hit $99 until 2 years after the ps3 launched.

If they need 10m more its not crazy to think it will. Ps3 still has major releases coming from japan.

lol.

It is crazy to think that.
 
Untitled-5_zpschat0yr7.jpg


Please note that Gen 5 is not included here hence lower sales of Gen 6 vs when Gen 7 comes in.

Excellent, thank you. I had a feeling it might be something like a sine wave. I suspect if Gen 5 were included that the peak and decline around 2002 would be a bit smoother due to the PSOne etc. Will be interesting to see how it looks over the next few years.
 

AniHawk

Member
Sony has supported the consoles for many years past releasing a new console. Ps2 didnt hit $99 until 2 years after the ps3 launched.

If they need 10m more its not crazy to think it will. Ps3 still has major releases coming from japan.

if they can target enough new markets around the world that have never seen a ps3 before, then it's possible. but at that point, why promote the ps3 when they can just promote the ps4? the ps3 is essentially done sellling in japan - about 25k units a month. software sales have all but disappeared in the us too. there's not a ton of people buy ps3 games anymore, even in europe. atlus and other companies are fairly brave for supporting the platform in 2015 and beyond to be quite honest when it comes to western markets. there is no family-friendly second wind the system is seeing at lower price points. that's largely due to its library too. people don't equate sony with kid games, and despite a big userbase, those kinds of games have become less and less popular on their platforms as time has gone on.
 

groshkar

Member
Interesting question. Directly you'd say no. But indirectly perhaps not being able to obtain millions in revenue by selling a million units of casual fare like Carnival Games means you can't afford to budget money towards Bioshock 3 and have to cut back on budget and AAA or even mid tier games/development teams.

But then as a company, I might still be making money from casual, only the platform has switch from Nintendo to Apple and Google. I might in fact be making a lot more. I still might be taking money from Bioshock 3's marketing budget, but it would be because I need more dollars allocated towards mobile, where if you aren't on the top apps list you're invisible without marketing.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
It's really not. It just reflects the total fail of the wii to convert previous non-owners of consoles into lifelong console owners.

I have one brother that is a perfect example. My parents nearly were.

If you would have taken the time to read past that post, me and others had a good conversation of why I made that statement.

Also, your anecdotal evidence means nothing.
 

donny2112

Member
Don't ask me for source but I'm pretty sure I read once here Forza 2 is over 2M in U.S alone (NPD).

Forza hasn't sold that well in the U.S. alone. Forza 2 specifically was just over 600K in early 2009 (~20 months of sales) based on a leak then. Was there a Forza 2 bundle that may account for the difference?

All Donny is saying is that the majority of Halo fans don't turn up for remakes, based on Halo Anniversary's performance on the 360 vs Halo 4. Ergo, Halo 5 will be a better representation of the franchise's performance than MCC. I agree with him.

Yep. Thanks!

extrapolating.png
http://xkcd.com/605/

This applies to sales threads in general

<insert Disco Stew graph>

:)

It really annoys me when people say the Wii was 100% casual users.

He** the PS2 was more casual in ways.


(No i'm not saying everyone who bought PS2 was a casual gamer, just people who assume 100% of people who bought PS3/360 are core gamers and 100% of Wii were casual users who will never buy another console are very wrong).

Thank you.

No reason IMO not to count the Wii when comparing generations.

Hey, Alcibiades! Good to see you over here again. :)
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
1_zpsv4jjkvtd.jpg


Includes all 3 gens, pink line specifically excludes Wii from Gen 7. (Gen 8 includes Wii U)

One thing I'd like to point out that a lot of people gloss over:

In 2000, the US population was ~281,000,000.

In 2014, the US population was ~319,000,000.

A rise of almost 40 million people SHOULD play a role (albeit somewhat small) in expectations of where the numbers of the industry should be headed. As someone earlier said, a stagnant industry isn't a great sign.

I don't think the industry is dying. I do, however, think it is not ridiculous to have a little concern with the numbers. These numbers aren't happening in a vacuum.
 

heidern

Junior Member
But then as a company, I might still be making money from casual, only the platform has switch from Nintendo to Apple and Google. I might in fact be making a lot more. I still might be taking money from Bioshock 3's marketing budget, but it would be because I need more dollars allocated towards mobile, where if you aren't on the top apps list you're invisible without marketing.

Are EA/Activision/Ubisoft/Take Two/WB actually making money from mobile?

Then the other question is how much? If it's modest then that helps their ability to invest in development, but if they make a lot then there's a case to reduce/scrap console development and transition to mobile which is what the Japanese publishers at present are doing.
 
This is brazenly incorrect. The publishers are selling (are making!) less software, even for the 14-30 male demographic. Every loss is felt, especially when you're not heavily involved in the mobile market. EA is making inroads (or trying to) in that sector but it wasn't just grandma buying just dance when you're talking about a piece of hardware moving 900 million pieces of software. That's felt, whether you want to pretend to ignore it or try to say that the console market ONLY consists of a few mega publishers selling a yearly shooter and a couple yearly sports titles and that's it. Well yeah, if we continue down the path we seem to want to here, that's all that's going to be left. And when that happens, it will be impossible to get to a state of growth or expansion because the software will get even more insular to the aging male demographic. That does not warrant a Baghdad bob kinda attitude but rather a legitimate cause for concern, because software is what drives hardware.

The point is, when you're looking at a market's health it's unwise to selectively ignore things based on your own personal beliefs. A console is a console is a console. Labels notwithstanding.
I am not ignoring anything. The matter of the fact the Wii, software wise, had no effect on most publishers. That is a fact not a fantasy. You are just ignoring financial reports. Ubisoft, EA, Acti, Sony, MS, WB etc have all made new IP. Reducing the market to shooter and sports is ridiculous. Not only big publishers make money. Indy developers are making money with their games. It´s a fact that the absence of the Wii audience had zero effect on the bottom line of most publishers. Their financial results don´t lie.
 

StevieP

Banned
I am not ignoring anything. The matter of the fact the Wii, software wise, had no effect on most publishers. That is a fact not a fantasy. You are just ignoring financial reports. Ubisoft, EA, Acti, Sony, MS, WB etc have all made new IP. Reducing the market to shooter and sports is ridiculous. Not only big publishers make money. Indy developers are making money with their games. It´s a fact that the absence of the Wii audience had zero effect on the bottom line of most publishers. Their financial results don´t lie.

Zero effect? Citation needed. Please include years 2006-2010 in your analysis
 
Zero effect? Citation needed. Please include years 2006-2010 in your analysis

Their financial report is all the citation i need. And btw it was you who has said that
A console is a console is a console. Again, if you want to look at the market at large and judge its health, you ignore the labels on the front of the boxes.
You totally ignored markets realities, EA Results: Above expectations, $750 million buyback, stock up 15% afterhours. EA among others did not get affect by the absence of the Wii.
Ubisoft financials: 65% revenue increase YoY, Watch Dogs 9 million shipped.

The absence of the Wii had zero consequence for their software or profits in the links. It´s also well known that the audience of the Wii is very different than the PS360 PS4 Xbone. But you keep ignoring that. Publishers are doing very well right now, without the need to the Wii audience.
 
I can't believe this myth is still so commonly parroted on GAF of all places

Jesus it's not a myth. It didn't sell to *only* soccer moms and old people, but it's the one damn console my grandmother ever bought. Seriously, old people and soccer moms ought the Wii like they were going to stop making them. It was crazy.
 

QaaQer

Member
Jesus it's not a myth. It didn't sell to *only* soccer moms and old people, but it's the one damn console my grandmother ever bought. Seriously, old people and soccer moms ought the Wii like they were going to stop making them. It was crazy.

Wii tent had room for everyone.
 
I am not ignoring anything. The matter of the fact the Wii, software wise, had no effect on most publishers. That is a fact not a fantasy. You are just ignoring financial reports. Ubisoft, EA, Acti, Sony, MS, WB etc have all made new IP. Reducing the market to shooter and sports is ridiculous. Not only big publishers make money. Indy developers are making money with their games. It´s a fact that the absence of the Wii audience had zero effect on the bottom line of most publishers. Their financial results don´t lie.
Let me see: Just Dance a title with relative minor investment to develop ended up selling millions for Ubisoft. Then there's the fitness craze started with Wii Fit, a slice of the pie where publishers such as EA and Ubisoft took part. Then there's MS which boarded the motion arena with Kinect, which in the Xbox 360 days became one of the most successful peripherals ever. Or Capcom with the endless "million seller" experiments.

Basically lot's of 3rd parties approached the platform making low investment titles that generated huge profits and even direct competitors benefited from conceps and style of software brought up by the Wii.

Jesus it's not a myth. It didn't sell to *only* soccer moms and old people, but it's the one damn console my grandmother ever bought. Seriously, old people and soccer moms ought the Wii like they were going to stop making them. It was crazy.
Take a look at the sales of Nintendo's traditional series on the Wii. Then get back to us. Yes, it expanded the audience but there were a ton of "traditional" sales in there.
 
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