Pretty sure if I took the effort I could find plenty of post from you explaining why the Xbox should be selling more now. Some reasons I remember are holiday momentum, people still buying holiday exclusives, more people now owning an X1 and evangilising it to their friends. Since launch you've just been shifting the time frame of when the Xb1 will rise above the ps4.
I did say why I thought it was possible for the Xbox One to get January [since I thought it would be a low selling month for both consoles (<200K) -- something I was right about] and the game sales
did show that many were still buying Xbox Holiday games (a good number of Xbox One multiplats sold better than PS4 multiplats in retail).
I've always felt the PS4 would get the early months of the year after that though (February to June) due to the system having more exclusives. So no, I haven't been just "shifting the time frame"; I've always said that it would take multiple years for the Xbox One to catch up in America and that MS should make major moves quickly (e.g.: what we saw last Holiday season) to do it.
If they were able to grow a little over a 100K lead in 2013 to 1 million unit lead by October last year how big do you think the gap will there be by October this year when the lead is starting at 650K?
(As I've said many times before) a big reason why the gap got that big was due to Destiny and the Destiny bundle. The PS4 in September 2014 got sales similar to what we saw with the Wii last gen during its Septembers (close to 600K in America alone if I remember correctly). That's
huge. There's nothing on the PS4 this year in my opinion that will be as big as Destiny was last year -- at least in terms of giving the PS4 similar sales before the Holiday season. So yeah, I don't see why it's somehow crazy for me to think that the gap won't be greatly bigger than what it was last year.
And then you are theorizing the gap after this holiday could be even smaller. Ps4 sales would have to fall off a cliff or the Xb1 would need to double Ps4 sales which I can't see happening when it couldn't be done this past holiday even w/o Ps4 price drop.
No. PS4 sales wouldn't have to fall of a cliff and neither would the Xbox One have to have two times the sales; The PS4 was doing very well during November and December -- the Xbox One simply did better though (NPD).
The Xbox One has bigger games lined up for this year in comparison to 2014. MS is therefore going to have to spread the games out. I think MS has a chance to take August, September, October, November, and December depending on when their games release, as well as what special bundles they will have. Taking all of those months would more than likely cut the gap by a pretty good amount.
The gap being at (say) 500K in January 2016 would indeed be a gap that's smaller than what it is now. Not sure why that's impossible.
Seems just like too much wishful thinking.
Sounds more like you just don't like me thinking/saying that the last few months of the year will be a toss up (NPD) and that it's simply possible for the Xbox One to lower the gap. Your post comes across as if you think I said that it's
guaranteed to happen and I never said that. All I did was say that it's possible. Not sure why you are trying to call me out as if I said something controversial.