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NPD Sales Results for July 2014 [Up1: 3DS LTDs, Wii U LTDs, Tomodachi]
- Thread starter Road
- Start date
Version 3.0
Member
No, you're right. The definitions are very clear. Aqua, a discussion of platform or brand exclusives' performance is perfectly valid - moreso that just 1st-party, I'd agree - but trying to re-define the terms is only going to take the discussion off topic. Wouldn't you agree?
Mysterious
Banned
Is this historical? And why are we including third-parties, when we're comparing first party sales potentials of this/last generation?sörine;125605934 said:
Also I wouldn't count Kirby or Zelda (sadly) since they haven't been 5M+ sellers in quite a while. Kinect Adventures, Wii X, Nintendogs and Brain Age also aren't those IPs any longer as well.
EDIT: You can't not count LBP but count Zelda/Kirby.
EDIT 2: If you're including Crash Bandicoot and Tetris, might as well give Microsoft Call of Duty.
gundamkyoukai
Member
sörine;125605934 said:
A lot of those Nintendo IPs are dead or don't sell big numbers .
Nintendogs sold 23.94 million last number i get the sequel Nintendogs + Cats sold 3.28 million last numbers i get .
Same for Wii like game Nintendo not getting anything close to those numbers again .
That's what the console manufacturers general use it to mean. Sometimes people will use second-party to refer to games published by a console manufacturer but not developed internally, but I don't recall that phrase being used by a console manufacturer. Probably for the best, anyway. Otherwise there can be situations where a series could go back and forth between being first and second party, depending on who developed what entries. The Resistance game on PSP is an interesting situation because it was developed by an internal Sony studio, but the main games weren't.
You must not have played other m.
In the US, no way, at least for 2014.
Look at Wii's sales from August through December 2007:
August: 403,000
September: 501,000
October: 519,000
November: 981,000
December: 1,350,000
PS4 would need to sell between August and December 3.754 million units just to keep pace.
Splatoon isn't a fps but Nintendo did pioneer building that genre on consoles with Goldeneye 15 years ago. They produced an open world game last year (Lego City) and the new Zelda games have reorienting in that direction, which is back to their roots. A new Mario Tennis came out last year too. Maybe the problem is more familiarity on your part?
Mysterious
Banned
That was RARE, and I still feel that Nintendo would've been a ton better off from GCN on if RARE was still on board. Goldeneye really kick-started FPS on consoles, though. On GCN, they had Geist and first-person adventures in Metroid. On Wii, they still had FPA, but just relied on third-parties for FPS, it's fair to say.
Link's Crossbow Training
But they do have a huge racer of their own. Where's Sony's or Microsoft's party racing games?
LEGO City Undercover was supposedly like that, and it was effectively a 1st-party game like Titanfall is effectively a 1st-party game.
Nintendo doesn't make the games like the others, but they do fund or develop themselves a lot of genre diversity, just not always in the Mature rating areas.
Yeah, exactly. Nintendo has lots of different kinds of games, but they wear different clothing than what shows up on the other consoles.
freefornow
Member
Wonder what their original estimate was? Anyone know?
Version 3.0
Member
It did have large months that first year, of 300 to 400k, and that was with severe supply constraints (it was almost permanently out-of-stock until after its 2nd Christmas). But the Wii only did a combined million units its first Nov/Dec, where the PS4 did 2 million. That's why it's hanging in there even while putting up monthly figures that are ~100k less on average than the Wii.
Nintendo has tried entering the fps market before, with stuff like geist, after they lost RARE to Microsoft.
theprodigy
Member
it was supply constrained for a very long time in the US whereas the PS4 had much better supply (see 2 million PS4 vs 1 million Wii in their first holidays), also we're about to get into the part where the Wii was consistently pulling over 400k in month in non-holiday months
Sony has little big planet karting.T
But they do have a huge racer of their own. Where's Sony's or Microsoft's party racing games?
LEGO City Undercover was supposedly like that, and it was effectively a 1st-party game like Titanfall is effectively a 1st-party game.
Also nintendo funded games usually have their SPD team working on it as well. I don't know if Microsoft has any parallels. I think Sony Santa Monica works in a somewhat similar capacity.
Version 3.0
Member
That's not impossible. It all depends on the game lineup (which I consider weak, but the general public may not) and the marketing - and how much of a fight the Xbox One puts up. People still want to get out of last gen badly. This Christmas should be a huge win for the PS4. We'll see.
gundamkyoukai
Member
Wii is not a system to follow if anything Sony should be trying to copy how PS2 did .
PS4 will sell less because of no Japan but that is what they should be following .
PS4 will sell less because of no Japan but that is what they should be following .
theprodigy
Member
I don't really see the point of PS4 vs Wii, we all know the PS4 will eventually fall behind and stay behind (yes, including worldwide), it's a matter of whether or not the PS4 can catch it in the end.
Dunno...that looks pretty impossible. Destiny will be huge of course....but to do 400K then 500, then stuff, then 1 million in a month?
I just listed everything that ever hit 5m from either. If we're going by most recent mainline entries (within a reasonable amount of time) we have this.
Sony:
Uncharted
The Last of Us
Microsoft:
Halo
Nintendo:
Super Mario
Pokémon
Mario Kart
Super Smash Bros
Animal Crossing
Mysterious
Banned
sörine;125608433 said:
Regarding Nintendo, I feel like something is still missing.
Also to be fair, I would readd God of War, Gran Turismo, Gears of War and The Legend of Zelda, since the recent entries' relatively poor performance can be chalked up to EOL platform woes.
Of course it's "possible", but not probable. It's pretty much all over for 2008 though. No system will ever sell as much each month non-holiday ever again (IMO) as the Wii did.
Here's 2008, the start of the 2nd full year of the Wii:
January: 274,000
February: 432,000
March: 721,000 <---broke the record for highest sales in a non-holiday month.
April: 714,000
May: 675,000
June: 666,000
July: 555,000
August: 453,000
September: 667,000
October: 803,000
November: 2,040,000
December: 2,150,000
Total of 10 million units in JUST the US for 2008. Of course, it collapsed two years later, but lets not deny how much more the Wii sold than everything else during it's prime.
Don't say Zelda.
Mysterious
Banned
sörine;125608727 said:
Zelda is pretty hard to figure out. The "realistic" art styles did do well (Ocarina and Twilight Princess), whereas the more "creative" art styles did not do quite as well (Wind Waker and Skyward Sword). There's not enough data here to draw a conclusive correlation.
But Zelda portable is a sub-5 million series, definitely.
freefornow
Member
sörine;125608433 said:
No Gears for MS?
Don´t worry. When it comes to the US. Next month it will fall behind Wii and shortly after also behind PS2.
shinra-bansho
Member
I'm not sure why you'd limit listwars to "recent entries" to ignore something with historically high sales like Gran Turismo or Gears of War and then talk about Super Smash Bros the last entry releasing in like 2008.
Regarding Nintendo and diversity, they're plenty diverse in genre. It's their approach to those genres, or the target demographics they focus on, that are similarly homogenous to other publishers. EA makes sports games, it makes racing games, it makes shooting games, it makes RPGs, story games etc. too, but all targeting a similar demographic as well. Their foci are just different demographic bases. NB this isn't a statement of good or bad, just of observation,
Regarding Nintendo and diversity, they're plenty diverse in genre. It's their approach to those genres, or the target demographics they focus on, that are similarly homogenous to other publishers. EA makes sports games, it makes racing games, it makes shooting games, it makes RPGs, story games etc. too, but all targeting a similar demographic as well. Their foci are just different demographic bases. NB this isn't a statement of good or bad, just of observation,
Version 3.0
Member
Yes, I have the figures right here. No question it'd take a miracle for the PS4 to keep up next year. Unless consoles morph into phones or something, no console will ever touch those Wii records, particularly Dec 2009. But I'm not willing to write off the PS4 for this Q4. It's the default next-gen console, and like I said, I think the hunger to upgrade is very strong. People just need an excuse. We'll see if one materializes.
I waffled on taking out that and some others (DK, GT, Gears, GOW). I ultimately decided to cutoff for franchises where the last main entries didn't hit 5m and don't really have any hope of it given their trajectories. I'll admit GT7, Gears 4 or the new Zelda could hit 5m though, there's a lot of variables.
I think Tomodachi Life will break into the club too.
Every Smash has exceeded 5 million. Not every GT or Gears has, including the most recent entries. In this case I think we can extend the benefit of the doubt, Smash Brawl is still moving somewhat notable figures today yet even.
Regarding Nintendo's diversity, IP recycling has been an issue for them in terms of AAA titles (Mario especially). Examining their overall portfolio Nintendo put out more new IP last gen than Sony or Microsoft technically, but the majority of it was low key downloadables or other smaller titles that flew under the radar or didn't even leave Japan in many cases. There's a definite image problem there and it seems to be something they're aware of and addressing.
I've been told Smash Bros launching this month and selling 2.7 Million copies had no effect on system sells...
List wars.
Mysterious
Banned
sörine;125609426 said:
I don't think the new Zelda could hit 5 million on Wii U, given its art style (not that I'm against it). However, Zelda absolutely has the power to be a mega-selling franchise (at least 7M), but Nintendo isn't catering to that audience.
Anyways, on home consoles:
Sony:
Uncharted
The Last of Us
Gran Turismo
Microsoft:
Halo
Gears of War
Nintendo:
Super Mario
Mario Kart
Super Smash Bros
Seems pretty even tbh.
gundamkyoukai
Member
Do you have PS2 numbers in the same time frame for USA.
If anything i would say GOW should be on Sony list since it like gears , 3 good selling numbers games then a non number come and mess it up.
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
sörine;125606876 said:
Lol I can't remember the Tennis game! Actually I remember trying it a little, but if we're talking consoles here it doesn't count b/c it's on 3DS.
And also true Nintendo played a big hand in the genre w/ Goldeneye (just being general here, technically that was Rare who's no longer with them), but aside from the Prime games (what's Splatoon? More like an arena shooter or something?) they haven't done anything in the genre to be relevant.
I don't keep up with everything and miss some obvious stuff, but I still think it's fair to say Nintendo kind of focuses on a select few genres each gen moreso than Sony and that's perfectly acceptable. They play to their strengths.
Nintendo's problem is they didn't stay on that long enough to remain relevant in the genre. I don't think many FPS fans put them on the same pedestal as they do Bungie, Crytek, Infinity Ward etc.
But they do have a huge racer of their own. Where's Sony's or Microsoft's party racing games?
No I meant sim racer, like Gran Turismo or Forza. Nintendo doesn't have a counterpart to them, they've got a few arcade-style ones however.
I'd....rather not get into this tbh, b/c there's a lot of baggage with Nintendo and "kiddy" stuff, baggage I personally think is really stupid, but it's there and it probably feeds the perception to "mature" gamers they don't make stuff like open-world GTA games.
theprodigy
Member
do you really want to play this game when it's obvious that it was more of a matter of supply than Brawl boosting it, given that it managed to hold from then on out
Mysterious
Banned
I don't understand what you're trying to say. Can you rephrase?
SwiftDeath
Member
Yay time for odd NPD thread derails. I suppose it can't hurt much at this point
Agree 100%. The PS4 is selling amazingly well for the current climate the videogame industry is now in. I get annoyed when some people (not you) seem to dismiss the Wii and say "it's selling as well or better than Wii" without knowing the real hard sales figures.
It is worrying though that since we are basically in a two-horse race now and many years later, why haven't we increased sales? Roughly 18 million home consoles were sold in 2008, across the big 3. Has the market shrunk that much? Can the PS4 and XB1 carry things? Where have all those console gamers gone to?
Heh, I think the install base is a bigger factor and the fact that Zelda isn't really a huge seller in terms of raw numbers.
If you implying by "catering to that audience", that Zelda would sell more if it was darker, more blood, voice acting, etc, ehhh.....I dunno about that.
If you weren't implying that, nevermind.
gundamkyoukai
Member
SwiftDeath do have PS2 NPD numbers for same time frame as PS4 sales so far ?
Wondering when they going to cross stream .
So you think it would have sold the same without Brawl(and Kart the next month)? I'm well aware of the supply issue. Can't it be a little of both? I don't think 2.7 Million grandmas and soccer moms rushed out to buy smash month 1 in March.
Mysterious
Banned
Ocarina of Time vs. Wind Waker
Twilight Princess vs. Skyward Sword (install base was larger at this release)
I mean, it's not enough data for a conclusive correlation, but it's something to consider at least. Also "that audience" is the Ocarina/Twilight audience.
CosmicQueso
Member
2008 was year 3 of the PS3 and Wii cycles, year 4 of Xbox 360.
we are 9 months in to the current PS4, Xone cycle. Ask that question at the end of 2015.
From shipment numbers, there are about 30 SCE published titles on the PS3 that have passed a million. One of those has shipped over 10 million, five have shipped over 5 million, three have shipped over 4 million, and eight of them have shipped between 2-4 million. The first party studios are fine for the most part, and the majority of the games released do well enough. The problem is more with some studios doing good numbers initially, but subsequent entries showing a strong decline or some projects not meeting expectations even if the number itself may not be that bad.
That, and franchise potential. It's not a good thing when you have a franchise that starts with a 3 million shipment for the initial entry, then the subsequent one decreases by about a million. That's basically that franchise headed in the wrong direction, and now you need to spend time and invest in something else. It's a combination of factors, and what's really wanted is franchises that can have future potential and consistently put up good numbers. That's why The Last of Us (strong future potential), Uncharted, God of War, and Gran Turismo are the only real big franchises. Their sequels will inevitably do big numbers for SCE. Little Big Planet is also great even with a decline in sales for the sequel because it makes a fair bit of money through the game anyway so it's been very successful. That's a bit of a different case though.
Then you see Assassins Creed, which is doing 5-10+ million yearly. That's the dream I imagine. Or Call of Duty, but that's like an almost impossible dream.
PS4 being the market leader should help a lot of the titles this time. PS3 had an uphill battle in that respect. Having said, all of these delays is kind of messing up schedules anyway.
theprodigy
Member
I think sorine is referring to A Link Between Worlds, not that it matters if you take consoles only.
given that the January/February numbers were only that low due to severe supply constraints and the numbers maintained afterwards (and if any game was causing boosts in the second half of 2008, it was Mario Kart Wii not Brawl), it's pretty obvious that Brawl was not the major cause of it (different from the strawman that it had no effect whatsoever)
tl;dr version: systems that are selling incredibly well tend not to be affected as much by major software releases because the baseline is already so high
I'd agree with those console brands as being the sure bets. Wii U's userbase problem is definitely giving Nintendo a huge hurdle though, on 3DS they'll be doubling that number of franchises (those 3 plus Pokémon, Animal Crossing, Tomodachi Life). It's sort of like the inverse of Vita, where Uncharted can't even do one million much less 5.
shinra-bansho
Member
Hmm, I'm actually kind of curious why the first parties haven't at least attempted annualisation to try an emulate AC and COD style success. Is it just internal resources are insufficient, is it a fear of franchise depreciation due to overexposure.
Mysterious
Banned
A Link Between Worlds did not, and will not, sell 5 million+ units.
sörine;125611037 said:
3DS (despite it's market reduction) still sells Nintendo IPs. Wii U doesn't. So I'm not too worried about discussing "Portable Nintendo".
<3