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[sörine]

Im no sales expert, so hearing people make WiiU/Dreamcast comparisons really scares me from picking up a WiiU.

The Dreamcast comparison was six months ago when people were falling over themselves loving 3D World while lamenting the system's doomed status and inevitably short lifecycle. Now we're in Gamecube comparisons. Still doomed, but it'll last a little longer and with some more games.

There's never really been serious Virtual Boy comparisons though.

 

[CouldBeWorse]

About sales it had a good launch and then collapsed totally as Nintendo failed to release games promised in the launch window, while the OS was incomplete to say the least. What I see now is they put their acts together. On top of where they stand now in terms of value prop, their short term perspective is great these holidays with Smash and Amiibos. Bayonetta sold few hundred copies and was heralded as the best action game last gen, its a niche game that will generate some good sales, even if it's no Watch Dogs obviously.

Looking in the mirror of the car is not what I do to feel trends. I'm looking ahead and what I see/feel is good. Hope I won't be wrong, maybe I will. It'll be fun to watch nevertheless.

So one game and some figures coming out at Christmas make up for 6 months of nothing, including none of the big third party games this fall? Do you realize that over the next three months, the Wii U has ONE new retail game coming out? All future predictions are a combination of looking into the last and estimating the future. You can't ignore the past simply because you don't like it.

Lmao. Dude I can't even read that graph. And what is the point of it anyway? Are you saying this past June is the most Units sold per month since the Wii U launched?

You really shouldn't be in here if you can't read that graph and ask what the point of it is.

 

[Guevara]

I think it's changed a bit amongst journos as well.

That's true, I'm not sure how much it matters though.

 

[Y2Kev]

And what makes you believe that it won't be supported until the end of this Gen? Wasn't it supposed to have been "killed" last E3?

I don't know anyone who said it would be killed after one year on the market (though I wouldn't blame Nintendo if that was their strategy).

I just wanted to know what the basis of sorine's statement was. I was told it was comments from Iwata (who is, frankly, obviously one of the smartest corporate masterminds to have ever existed judging by his continued employment) and Nintendo's software lineup that created this perception.

 

[sörine]

I don't know anyone who said it would be killed after one year on the market (though I wouldn't blame Nintendo if that was their strategy).

So no one in fact made Virtual Boy comparisons then?

 

[Carpe Diem]

I don't think Y2Kev proposed proof that it wouldn't be supported until the end of this gen, just that you have no proof that they will. Additionally, if we must look for proof, we could compare the way Nintendo treated the end of Wii's life and might draw negative conclusions from that.

That isn't really proof they'll do the same thing for Wii U, of course, but the point is there isn't really hard evidence for either thought, because it depends on a lot of variables that we don't have yet (like is there still some mystical chance Wii U can turn things around? the answer is almost certainly no, but there's still some time for that to draw itself out before decisions like that are made)

To be honest there's more proof they will support it than there is they won't. Will they be able to make it an unquestioned success? More than likely not. The point is though, whether we agree or not, is that the "perception" of the thing is changing.

 

[marc^o^]

I mean, do you even think about the fanciful shit you post for even, like, ten total seconds back to back?

I mean, your link to "another" theory is literally fairytale, rainbow and unicorn nonsense, pulled directly from the deepest bowels of hilarity-ville.

I'll just quote one gem:



His "theory" - and I am using that word as seriously as possible without laughing - is that due to some larger disappointment with PS4 and Xbox One, Wii U has been able to capitalize on that by finally releasing compelling content and having this one solitary month in which it still couldn't even outsell the Xbox One. And he's not even being truthful about it either, willfully misrepresenting the upcoming Xbox One lineup for example, like the fanboy he obviously is.

Tell me, what's wrong with this theory right from the start? I mean I know you want desperately to believe that just throwing more Nintendo IPs at the wall is going to change the world and Wii U will finally be a success, but you cannot be this fucking naive about the situation.

For comics sake as you say I reread post of yours from time to time, it helps me laugh with you.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=117894209&postcount=414

To answer your serious question, I reckon what he posted made lots of sense, thus why I posted the article in the first place. But I also said Wii U's audience is quite different, more kid/girl/family oriented. It also has exclusive titles and a low enough TCO to be a second console of choice.

 

[Narpas Sword0]

If you will. I see it surpassed GC figures last month, which ended close to Xbox, far away from the leading console... which is a situation I believe will repeat this gen.

We don't have to depend on a single data point. It is 1 million behind Dreamcast at this point in its life and 2 million behind GameCube in the same timespan. One month of squeaking by GameCube in one market doesn't mean it's a lock for 20 million sales globally.

Oops didn't realize two pages went by

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

Yes. The narrative changed from virtual boy to Dreamcast.

What would have to happen next month for you to change your mind? 60k? 50k? 40k? No sales at all?

E3 is so annoying. People talking about tweets and treehouse streams and bringing that into sales threads.

But all those treehouse views!! all that "public perception"!!

The reality is 140k on the biggest Nintendo IP new release right now. And not a big hit to follow until Smash bros on Holidays.

I'm sure MK8 will keep the baseline higher than past months (at least for sometime...), dosn't change the fact that baseline will keep being pathetic.

 

[Carpe Diem]

So one game and some figures coming out at Christmas make up for 6 months of nothing, including none of the big third party games this fall? Do you realize that over the next three months, the Wii U has ONE new retail game coming out? All future predictions are a combination of looking into the last and estimating the future. You can't ignore the past simply because you don't like it.



You really shouldn't be in here if you can't read that graph and ask what the point of it is.

And you really shouldn't make comments like these if you have no idea why the statement was made in the first place...maybe I'm on a device that's too small to see the figures....typical of some of us on this here forum though......can never stick to the topic at hand.

 

[theprodigy]

For comics sake as you say I reread post of yours from time to time, it helps me laugh with you.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=117894209&postcount=414

He's still right, dunno where you're going here.

also July 2003 Gamecube sales=126,561
have fun beating that one lol

 

[Amir0x]

To be honest there's more proof they will support it than there is they won't. Will they be able to make it an unquestioned success? More than likely not. The point is though, whether we agree or not, is that the "perception" of the thing is changing.

But what does that actually mean? The perception people have of Saturn now is that it is a great system with a lot of 2D gems, but when it was out, it was still largely ignored by everybody. The perception of Dreamcast was that it was a killer machine where SEGA was innovating left and right, but it was still too little too late and few purchased the damned thing.

Perception is a fun thing to have, especially when you don't have to spend any money to perceive something a certain way. For example, if I did not own a Wii U, I might look at its 2015 lineup and say "Nintendo has certainly turned things around from where they were, looks like it'd be a nice system to own now", and still never actually turn around and spend money on it, because I already own a system for example that provided a better value for me.

That's why it's a really strange idea to try to gauge social media reaction and look for some sort of direct correlation for sales data. There is no actual way to judge whether that positive reaction can translate into hard sales, and what's more the evidence we have continues to show - even in this month - that people prefer the alternative, no matter what game or price Wii U is at.

 

[MilesTeg]

Nintendo will launch new home console hardware by holiday 2016 imo. They aren't making money on third party releases because there are none, and their software sales are being bottlenecked by the Wii U hardware. It's not a sustainable situation. Nintendo has no choice right now but to continue to develop games for the platform, because there is no other option. And, they need the experience with HD development which will help the transition to their next generation. They also have an obligation to their customers. So that's where they are at.

No doubt behind the scenes they are scrambling to get their next box ready. Practically any new box they put out has more sales potential at this point than Wii U.

Edit: also, what is "support til the end of the generation"? Nintendo decides when Wii U's time is over. Third party is already done with it. It ends when Nintendo says it ends. I predict a 4 year span.

 

[CouldBeWorse]

To be honest there's more proof they will support it than there is they won't. Will they be able to make it an unquestioned success? More than likely not. The point is though, whether we agree or not, is that the "perception" of the thing is changing.

How can you prove or quantify that the perception is changing? You can't.

You know what is proof? Hardware and software sales. And one month plus one game does not make a trend.

For comics sake as you say I reread post of yours from time to time, it helps me laugh with you.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=117894209&postcount=414

But he was right. His math was off by 5-10%, but he was right. So why are you laughing?

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

For comics sake as you say I reread post of yours from time to time, it helps me laugh with you.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=117894209&postcount=414

To answer your serious question, I reckon what he posted made lots of sense, thus why I posted the article in the first place. But I also said Wii U's audience is quite different, more kid/girl/family oriented. It also has exclusive titles and a low enough TCO to be a second console of choice.

The second "console" of choice for that userbase is a tablet.

 

[Amir0x]

For comics sake as you say I reread post of yours from time to time, it helps me laugh with you.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=117894209&postcount=414

To answer your serious question, I reckon what he posted made lots of sense, thus why I posted the article in the first place. But I also said Wii U's audience is quite different, more kid/girl/family oriented. It also has exclusive titles and a low enough TCO to be a second console of choice.

Yo, look at my prediction. 135,000 units at most I said, I said for comic's sake, but that was the highest and I was willing to concede that point to you with the data we had.

IT SOLD 140,000

and every last one of my points not only still stands, but is proven MORE solid by this month's data. Since 140,000 is not great sales. Thanks for reminding me of this post bro

 

[Carpe Diem]

I don't know anyone who said it would be killed after one year on the market (though I wouldn't blame Nintendo if that was their strategy).

I just wanted to know what the basis of sorine's statement was. I was told it was comments from Iwata (who is, frankly, obviously one of the smartest corporate masterminds to have ever existed judging by his continued employment) and Nintendo's software lineup that created this perception.

OMG. LMAO. Seriously though, that got me laughing...just so I know we are still talking about the same topic...I'll ask..."Do you believe or not that since the launch of MK8, E3, Luigi Death Stare and other Nintendo moves, the "perception" of the system has changed?

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

Also Ami almost nailed the number, where's the laugh?

 

[Huff]

well perception probably hasn't changed for the worst.

i still cant find a used unit for under 150 on ebay

 

[Amir0x]

He almost nailed the number, where's the laugh?

I think he's pointing out I said "it won't happen, but I'll give it to you for comic's sake." I thought it'd probably in all likelihood stop at 115,000 or something like that, but it hit 140,000. But my point in that post was that EVEN IN that best case scenario, the number is shit. With one of its most important games.

What has changed with the numbers we got?

 

[jeremy1456]

This.

Spoiler

But I'd say Vita lost its dreamcast status with those sales/lack of stock/lack of support from sony

There's stock problems?

I ask because those sales don't seem low for the platform.

 

[CouldBeWorse]

And you really shouldn't make comments like these if you have no idea why the statement was made in the first place...maybe I'm on a device that's too small to see the figures....typical of some of us on this here forum though......can never stick to the topic at hand.

I read it just fine on my iPhone. You know that you can click on pictures and then zoom, right? It has been a feature on phones for about 7 years now. And that graph IS the topic.

Fantastic attempt at creating a joke character but you really need to try harder.

 

[marc^o^]

He almost nailed the number, where's the laugh?

Now, I'm going to be super generous and let's say Wii U sells at that rate every week in June. It won't, but let's give that to you for comics sake.

For comics sake, can I still read?

 

[Amir0x]

For comics sake, can I still read?

But that's the point marc. The whole point of my post was to say that if I gave you the data and the best case scenario played out based on that data - which it did, to your credit - the numbers are still shit.

Do you not understand how this only proves the exact point I was making in that post?

 

[benny_a]

For comics sake, can I still read?

He said he grants you that even if they sell 400% for the full month (which he didn't believe) the sales would be in dog shit category.

Now they are in dog shit category. Yay?!

 

[Narpas Sword0]

OMG. LMAO. Seriously though, that got me laughing...just so I know we are still talking about the same topic...I'll ask..."Do you believe or not that since the launch of MK8, E3, Luigi Death Stare and other Nintendo moves, the "perception" of the system has changed?

How do we measure perception? What the fuck is this conversation? This thread is about lines on a graph.

 

[Boombloxer]

OMG. LMAO. Seriously though, that got me laughing...just so I know we are still talking about the same topic...I'll ask..."Do you believe or not that since the launch of MK8, E3, Luigi Death Stare and other Nintendo moves, the "perception" of the system has changed?

The point is that it hasnt translated into sales, even for one month. It didn't beat any of the competition with one of their biggest games.

The only ones really seeing this are the existing fan base, who Nintendo is catering to with all if those things you mentioned. Mass market? No change, still a weird console with a giant controller.

 

[Carpe Diem]

I read it just fine on my iPhone. You know that you can click on pictures and then zoom, right? It has been a feature on phones for about 7 years now. And that graph IS the topic.

Fantastic attempt at creating a joke character but you really need to try harder.

Good for you....now.....back to the relevant discussion.

 

[shinra-bansho]

It's a difference of percrption and it's only a first step. One that might never be followed through on well knowing Nintendo, and their empty summer lineup isn't inspiring any confidence on my part, but there's been a definite change in general perception for Wii U with E3 and Mario Kart. It's gone from a system whose support will end around it's second to third year and quietly swept under the rug to a system that looks to be getting a full console cycle and heavy 1st party commitment for the duration of it. That change in perception or "narrative" is what I think gives it more in common with Gamecube than Dreamcast now, that's what the shift was.

I don't really get where exactly this is coming from. And it's oft-repeated.

I'm not really sure what exactly Nintendo announced at E3 2014 to imply significant ongoing support into 2016 and beyond. They presented information in a charming fashion on (a) titles already announced and (b) smaller titles. So yes, Nintendo aren't completely abandoning the platform, but I don't think that was really ever feasible; but in terms of titles of larger scale/scope/production values, the likes of Smash Bros, Mario Kart, Zelda, I don't really think their showing provided much to change the view that Zelda Wii U will likely be the last big budget hurrah on the platform. And the likelihood that Nintendo are waiting around until like 2018 to launch a new platform still seems low.

It was never going to Dreamcast Nintendo, even though it was selling like the Dreamcast. But it's still unlike to reach the Gamecube's sales. It's essentially still the Dreamcast, had SEGA had the capital, properties and resources to better support it for a fuller cycle.

 

[lwilliams3]

Im no sales expert, so hearing people make WiiU/Dreamcast comparisons really scares me from picking up a WiiU.

Why? You don't have to be a sales expert to understand that Sega was nearly dead when they released the Dreamcast, and that it is expected for Nintendo to support the Wii U for at the very least another year.

 

[marc^o^]

But that's the point marc. The whole point of my post was to say that if I gave you the data and the best case scenario played out based on that data - which it did, to your credit - the numbers are still shit.

Do you not understand how this only proves the exact point I was making in that post?

That's a question of perspective Amir0x. In itself, though it's at last above numbers GC did in a month, 140k is still pretty bad. But coming from Wii U numbers it shows a recovery is taking place, which bodes well for what's to come. You didn't think it was possible, you laughed at the idea and I'm sure you still do, and I feel even more confident now than when we had discussions before NPD.

 

[CaptainZombie]

I don't think Y2Kev proposed proof that it wouldn't be supported until the end of this gen, just that you have no proof that they will. Additionally, if we must look for proof, we could compare the way Nintendo treated the end of Wii's life and might draw negative conclusions from that.

That isn't really proof they'll do the same thing for Wii U, of course, but the point is there isn't really hard evidence for either thought, because it depends on a lot of variables that we don't have yet (like is there still some mystical chance Wii U can turn things around? the answer is almost certainly no, but there's still some time for that to draw itself out before decisions like that are made)

Yeah I think the Wii U lasts till 2016 at the most and then Nintendo releases their new system and handheld simultaneously. I can see the next handheld somehow be a part of the new system that works with it when at home and it also allows for physical media when out and about or even wifi to play remotely. Nintendo messed up with the wii u but they can correct things with the next console if they plan it right.

Now the vita is in Dreamcast territory and even worse to a degree when Sony comes out saying they're not gonna fully support it.

 

[Carpe Diem]

How do we measure perception? What the fuck is this conversation? This thread is about lines on a graph.

And how do you perceive those lines on a graph? Or rather, how have you been perceiving those lines on a graph?

 

[tengiants]

I feel sorry for all the people that feel the need to make comparisons to past consoles all the time. Unable to look forward. Can't let go of the past. I wonder how this spills off into their real lives sometimes, but only briefly.

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

OMG. LMAO. Seriously though, that got me laughing...just so I know we are still talking about the same topic...I'll ask..."Do you believe or not that since the launch of MK8, E3, Luigi Death Stare and other Nintendo moves, the "perception" of the system has changed?

The problem is that "perception" is such an abstract concept, used in such a vague way. "Perception" of the quality and value of the system? "Perception" of the Wii U pad over a tablet?

Some MK8 video goes viral and that's suposed to change the mind of an entire country )or that fact it reached every individual in the US or the world)?

MK is the biggest Nintendo IP right now, with some installments reaching over 20 million copies. MK8 had an effect on Wii U sales for obvious reasons, no need to look at unmeasurable things like "perception", more games attract more users, that's the logic behind it.

MK is big enough to affect the baseline of the console for a couple of months at least and truly, made a lot of users see the console more appealing. But is not going to change the fact that the Wii U is a ultimatly and undesirable product for a large part of consumers.

 

[Valkyria]

And how do you perceive those lines on a graph? Or rather, how have you been perceiving those lines on a graph?

Da fuq?

 

[Y2Kev]

And how do you perceive those lines on a graph? Or rather, how have you been perceiving those lines on a graph?

da faq?

 

[CouldBeWorse]

da faq?

Your patience is admirable.

 

[theprodigy]

And how do you perceive those lines on a graph? Or rather, how have you been perceiving those lines on a graph?

da fuq?

edit: damn it CouldBeWorse you broke the combo

 

[sörine]

I don't really get where exactly this is coming from. And it's oft-repeated.

I'm not really sure what exactly Nintendo announced at E3 2014 to imply significant ongoing support into 2016 and beyond. They presented information in a charming fashion on (a) titles already announced and (b) smaller titles. So yes, Nintendo aren't completely abandoning the platform, but I don't think that was really ever feasible; but in terms of titles of larger scale/scope/production values, the likes of Smash Bros, Mario Kart, Zelda, I don't really think their showing provided much to change the view that Zelda Wii U will be the last big budget hurrah on the platform. And the likelihood that Nintendo are waiting around until like 2018 to launch a new platform still seems low.

It was never going to Dreamcast Nintendo, even though it was selling like the Dreamcast. But it's still unlike to reach the Gamecube's sales. It's essentially still the Dreamcast, had SEGA had the capital, properties and resources to better support it for a fuller cycle.

Nintendo didn't announce any 2016 games. No one did really.

That's not the point though, they announced enough that expectations about the platform still changed. People expected things to mostly wrap up this year with just Zelda for next and that might not even happen or might go cross-gen. Now it looks more like Nintendo's making a fuller longer term commitment to the system and general expectations seem to have also changed accordingly.

 

[Carpe Diem]

That's a question of perspective Amir0x. In itself, though it's at last above numbers GC did in a month, 140k is still pretty bad. But coming from Wii U numbers it shows a recovery is taking place, which bodes well for what's to come. You didn't think it was possible, you laughed at the idea and I'm sure you still do, and I feel even more confident now than when we had discussions before NPD.

And this is what I believe the "Wii U is doomed/will be discontinued/whatever else doomsday phrase you want to insert here" crowd does not or refuse to see. In no way will the Wii U be a success by any previous Nintendo standard, but rather than killing the system and engendering even more hate, Nintendo has decided to stick it out to the end and the evidence is there.

 

[Mpl90]

Da fuq?

da faq?

I knew it. Random poster and Y2Kev are the same person.

 

[Amir0x]

That's a question of perspective Amir0x. In itself, though it's at last above numbers GC did in a month, 140k is still pretty bad. But coming from Wii U numbers it shows a recovery is taking place, which bodes well for what's to come. You didn't think it was possible, you laughed at the idea and I'm sure you still do, and I feel even more confident now than when we had discussions before NPD.

good luck man is all i can say. the true believer hope of a true fan is a powerful thing to crush; it seems your hope will just have to be crushed out of you slowly

And this is what I believe the "Wii U is doomed/will be discontinued/whatever else doomsday phrase you want to insert here" crowd does not or refuse to see. In no way will the Wii U be a success by any previous Nintendo standard, but rather than killing the system and engendering even more hate, Nintendo has decided to stick it out to the end and the evidence is there.

I just want to make it clear this is an entirely different argument, and not one any of my statements have supported here. I am have not made any declaration on whether Nintendo will stick it out or not.

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

And how do you perceive those lines on a graph? Or rather, how have you been perceiving those lines on a graph?

Do you understand that those lines are based on real quantifiable data, right?

Unlike perception which is quite an abstract term, it can't be really studied or measured. And much less with the laughable info such perception is extrapolated form "E3, treehouse views,Luigi stare...etc..."

 

[Valkyria]

I knew it. Random poster and Y2Kev are the same person.

I have never been called random poster V_V .

 

[CouldBeWorse]

da fuq?

edit: damn it CouldBeWorse you broke the combo

F me

 

[marc^o^]

good luck man is all i can say. the true believer hope of a true fan is a powerful thing to crush; it seems your hope will just have to be crushed out of you slowly

A part of my gamer soul died with Dreamcast. I won't easily give up hope: I know what's to miss.

Besides, I believe most Wii U woes come from a terrible, terrible execution. Nintendo will never recover fully from that, but it looks like their execution is now good again. And when Nintendo is good, there's no reason for them not to do good, they offer things people still want, from what I can tell with MK8 or what I saw at Japan Expo.

 

[Carpe Diem]

da faq?

Lol. Da fuq what? You cannot grasp what I am suggesting? Dude you were the one who made made the OG comment about perception not being relevant.......I have tried to stick to your diversionary topic...even though it in itself was a diversion from the OG OP. Others that have joined and muddy the waters I cannot be held responsible for confusing you.

 

[Valkyria]

Lol. Da fuq what? You cannot grasp what I am suggesting? Dude you were the one who made made the OG comment about perception not being relevant.......I have tried to stick to your diversionary topic...even though it in itself was a diversion from the OG OP. Others that have joined and muddy the waters I cannot be held responsible for confusing you.

Your post made zero sense. Data and charts are not perception based.

 

[Amir0x]

A part of my gamer soul died with Dreamcast, I won't easily give up hope, I know what's to miss.

you don't have to miss anything to be a realist about something's prospects

I have a Wii U, I won't miss out on its big games. It's still going to remain a colossal flop regardless >