TheOfficeMut
Unconfirmed Member
Yet they're probably besting Microsoft in both categories. I say probably because I'm unsure of what the profit on a PS4 is. In market share, however, Microsoft was bested before the gen started.
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NPD Sales Results for November 2015 [Up3: Combined Hardware For PS4 + XB1 + Wii U]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
Yet they're probably besting Microsoft in both categories. I say probably because I'm unsure of what the profit on a PS4 is. In market share, however, Microsoft was bested before the gen started.
slavesnyder
Member
Agree. Maybe I wasn't clear.
I'd put console on 299 and bundles back to higher price, so I can do promos like you said: bundles for 299 or added stuff (games, controllers, whatever).
slavesnyder
Member
Depends on profit per unit and preferences in their strategy. So far tey did fine, I said what I would do but I am mostly wrong.
They will never make PS2 numbers. End of story. And they know it and it's okay. No need to burn money.
I think they are on a good track with pricing and install base. We know shit about price and date of VR.
But i totally agree that they have to nail it from the start.
serversurfer
Member
/nod $349 with the game-of-the-month, or $299 for just the hardware. Promos as needed.
Pack it up guys, Sony cant win this month.
serversurfer
Member
Do we think Kaz may announce PSVR pricing and availability at CES? That's when everybody else seems to be going, and it'd be a good opportunity to talk up some of the non-gaming applications, which would mostly be seen as a distraction at shows like E3.
A $500-$600 VR appliance may be fairly appealing to the average consumer, even if it also plays PlayStation games. That puts it in the same price range as an iPad, for example. Though this will largely depend on whether or not Sony have actually been working on the non-gaming stuff they've been talking up.
A $500-$600 VR appliance may be fairly appealing to the average consumer, even if it also plays PlayStation games. That puts it in the same price range as an iPad, for example. Though this will largely depend on whether or not Sony have actually been working on the non-gaming stuff they've been talking up.
Why not?
They do? Last time we heard from Andrew House, he stated that their priority now is to match or exceed PS2 LTD.
slavesnyder
Member
Well, you have to have goals and ambitions. What else is left at the moment?
I think PS2 is out of reach because the gen simply will not be long enough to reach it.
PS2 didn't reach 150 million in the span of its generation. It continued selling at a low price well after PS3 launched.
slavesnyder
Member
600 (incl. Console I presume) sounds high, but for early adopters it might work. I hope they aim for 500.
The important thing is to get the message right what VR can do. And that PSVR, in contrast to Occulus, is the easiest way to experience the next big thing.
Occulus might be technically better, but it's nerdy. PSVR is spectacular enough to impress your buddies and it just works.
I am so impatient to see how they will market it and what will be the killer app / feature.
Hope there is one...
Microsoft wanted to sale hundreds of millions and look what happened.
DriftingSpirit
Member
PS4 won't have the legs of PS2. After the generation ends, I can see what happened to the PS3 happening to the PS4. Sales will more than likely tank as people flow into the new generation.
Which is tecnically what's happen with almost all console. PS2 was a phenomenal, while is not impossible, is seriusly hard for PS4 repeat this.
He did not. He said they want to match or exceed PS2 numbers for the first 3-5 years. They don't expect to be able to keep up with the tail end of PS2's sales.
serversurfer
Member
Yeah, I think they can probably hit $500. I mostly gave a range because a lot of people seem to think $200 for the starter kit is unrealistic.
Yup. For most people, PSVR will be the iPad to Oculus' old-school tablet computer. At least, it could be if Sony nail the non-gaming stuff.
This line of thinking is somewhat flawed since PS4 will reach prices PS3 wasn't able to.
Not only that, but unlike PS3, the PS4 user experience isn't junk, so I don't think abandonment will be as large as it was with PS3.
Having said that, it will be in Sony's best interest to attract as many of the PS4 install base to adopt the PS5 as possible, so they may have a plan already in place. We'll see.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Right, the PS4 will be a great success with ~100M sales. It just speaks more to how much of a monster the PS2 was to get where it ended up.
mejin
Member
If PS5 is full retro with PS4 I can see support for PS4 still going and good sales for it. Imagine a $200 PS4 bundle and great prices on all oficial markets around the world. It won't beat PS2 never but it will have it's place on the few who beat 100M.
Mystic_Wanderer
Member
They're outpacing PS2 so far, why can't they? Who are you to declare end of story?
The only way I see PS4 pulling it off would be if PSVR is a huge success. Typically most consoles peak saleswise during year 3 and start tapering off at that point.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Even considering all of that, I still say it will not reach PS2.
Sure, sure.
Personally, I think the ceiling is 115M. I am just not on board with the PS4 being on par with PS2 when it is all said and done.
Effigenius
Member
Sales tanked because new ps3's were (and are still) $200-250. The ps3 never hit that $99-149 price point. I'm not sure if the ps4 will either, but that is what it will take to have any hope of catching ps2. I think though, sony won't want to do that because that will keep some people from buying a ps5. I think that's they real reason ps360 never got cheap.
I doubt that a person who hasn't bought a ps4, even when priced at $99, is going to be interested in a $399 ps5. There's no way that a cheap ps4 would cannibalize ps5 sales
Especially without optical drive and cheap flash ram instead of the hdd. Without access to used games this version is guaranteed to make more profit for Sony, so they can subsidize it (more).
slavesnyder
Member
Dear Mystic_Wanderer, I declared end of story because in my personal opinion, reaching PS2 numbers is not realistic. Sorry you took offense with this expression. I could have written: "PS2? Lol.", but I found end of story way cooler, plus I like Fargo.
Who I am? Just a Turing Test. Like most of us here.
Glorified G
Member
Thorough analysis as always. Even more so than your prediction for Black Friday:
Maybe cause the outpacing part is solely based on launching ww (except japan). So for the first 8 months the comparison is ps2 japan vs ps4 ww (except japan). The ps4 sales advantage since then has been constantly shrinking. In other words, the ps4 is selling worse than the ps2.
Heh.
lmao
So that's where the loose meme came from.
Maybe but he's always mixed up those two.
3rdamention
Member
Lol, that was funny. The Black Friday analysis, now the Amazon Hourly Chart analysis. Noobie is on fire.
It's actually been prevalent in the PAL thread for a while now but noobie becoming more active in the NPD threads made it spill over.So that's where the loose meme came from.
#dead
So that's where the loose meme came from.
No. This is the legendary comment xD
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=187455102&postcount=54
slavesnyder
Member
Either I don't get a meta joke here or you did not get the question. or i am blind.
The question was where the "loose" came from.
Noobie's road to fame is also nice, though.
Well, after that comment:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=187456236&postcount=67
and then:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=187674306&postcount=222
But i think you guys will know the intere story only reading the Pal Chart week 48.
wow.
Yep that's what I remember as well. I'm pretty certain he even clarified that they didnt expect to outsell the PS2 LTD.
BeforeU
Oft hope is born when all is forlorn.
Because PS4 will not be in market for 10 years. Man do people really believe it will sell 150+million? lmao. these hardware will be so outdated by 2017.
So much exciting things are coming out, even Sony themselves wants to get into powerful VR experience. There is going to be a PS5 sooner than there was PS3.
Even if you ignore all this. Just compare the competition PS2 had vs PS4 has right now.
Obliterator
Member
I think its fair that the PS4 can keep up with the PS2 during the "main" phase of its life cycle but yeah I highly highly doubt it can match those tail end sales of the PS2. That thing was viable in expanded markets for years after the PS3 launched
Still though the PS4 will be the highest revenue generating console in the history of the Playstation brand
Still though the PS4 will be the highest revenue generating console in the history of the Playstation brand
Liabe Brave
Member
And the PS2 hardware wasn't sorely outdated by 2005, when the 360 launched?
But what competition will they have in this gen's tail? If anything, Microsoft will transition to their next machine even earlier and harder. While there will be over twice as many PS4s in the wild to sell budget games on.
None of that is to say PS4 outselling PS2 is definite, or even likely. Just that your reasons aren't very powerful arguments.
...Even when we talk about the peak year, i don't see PS4 sell at PS2 level. I mean, PS2 peak is almost 25 million... i think 20 million is already hard for PS4.
funkystudent
Member
Its hard to tell how well the PS4 will sell in a year or two. The Wii was selling like hotcakes but its sales went off a cliff by 2010 for example.
I think there are a number of variables that could drastically change the market.
What if the NX is actually worth buying for the non Nintendo hardcore?
What if MS pulls a OG xbox and has a new console out in holiday 2017.
What if Apple finally take gaming seriously for apple TV? ( LOL)
There is only so much gaming money going around but this cycle the bombing of the Wii U and questionable nature of the XB1 has resulted in the lionshare of the money going to PS4.
I think there are a number of variables that could drastically change the market.
What if the NX is actually worth buying for the non Nintendo hardcore?
What if MS pulls a OG xbox and has a new console out in holiday 2017.
What if Apple finally take gaming seriously for apple TV? ( LOL)
There is only so much gaming money going around but this cycle the bombing of the Wii U and questionable nature of the XB1 has resulted in the lionshare of the money going to PS4.
Btw PS4 is back in stock at Amazon at 349$ with a 50$ gift card. So the promotion is effectively extended in this way (no sure what is going to happen at other retailers).
It has been a crazy week at Amazon, the system has been sold out and restocked for what...three times? We don't know the volumes but demand seems crazy.
It has been a crazy week at Amazon, the system has been sold out and restocked for what...three times? We don't know the volumes but demand seems crazy.
Liabe Brave
Member
Actually, analysis by CosmicQueso seems to show that--for software at least--greater supply generally leads to greater spending. There appears to be room for more money to flow, provided the right offerings on the market.
Your point about the unpredictability of the future is well taken, though.
Just do it .cit
"Expanded markets" are growing more than ever and are far bigger than they were in the PS2 era. I don't know if Sony will leave it on the market long enough, but I don't see why it couldn't be big in CEEMEA and Asia for a decade. It might not match PS2, but I think it will be very successful.