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[KillerMan91]

"Expanded markets" are growing more than ever and are far bigger than they were in the PS2 era. I don't know if Sony will leave it on the market long enough, but I don't see why it couldn't be big in CEEMEA and Asia for a decade. It might not match PS2, but I think it will be very successful.

Yeah. What small amount of info we have gotten PS4 is greatly outpacing PS2 in non traditional markets (and it's not that surprising considering how much economy has grown in those markets since PS2 days). US and especially Japan are the reasons why PS4 will have hard time to match PS2s LTD. Not developing countries where it has actually good chance to sell more.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Just do it .cit

 

[gundamkyoukai]

...Even when we talk about the peak year, i don't see PS4 sell at PS2 level. I mean, PS2 peak is almost 25 million... i think 20 million is already hard for PS4.

You mean shipped ?
How much did Sony ship this year ?

Still all of this depends on how much Sony can get PS4 down to .

 

[Obliterator]

"Expanded markets" are growing more than ever and are far bigger than they were in the PS2 era. I don't know if Sony will leave it on the market long enough, but I don't see why it couldn't be big in CEEMEA and Asia for a decade. It might not match PS2, but I think it will be very successful.

That is totally fair and a good point. The expanded markets are much larger than in those days. No doubt the PS4 will be a giant success, a bigger one than the PS2 imo now that we have a digital storefront which never existed in the PS2 days and PS+ memberships. Also things like DLC etc. It will likely be the most financially successful Playstation ever.

I'm just not sure I see it in terms of straight numbers matching PS2. Its possible of course but for now I just have my expectations at 100+ million with no real specific number

 

[DriftingSpirit]

That is totally fair and a good point. The expanded markets are much larger than in those days. No doubt the PS4 will be a giant success, a bigger one than the PS2 imo now that we have a digital storefront which never existed in the PS2 days and PS+ memberships. Also things like DLC etc. It will likely be the most financially successful Playstation ever.

I'm just not sure I see it in terms of straight numbers matching PS2. Its possible of course but for now I just have my expectations at 100+ million with no real specific number

This post is exactly how I feel about the topic at hand.

 

[Y2Kev]

I don't think it will hit PS2 numbers b/c merka is declining.

 

[Obliterator]

Btw I dont usually do these kinds of things but I've been ungodly busy with work and missed quite a bit in this thread. Anyone mind PMing me a quick overview on what all Software numbers we got in the thread?

 

[Ryng_tolu]

You mean shipped ?
How much did Sony ship this year ?

Still all of this depends on how much Sony can get PS4 down to .

So far PS4 shipped 9.40 million. ( up YOY compared to 9.00 million of last year)
PS4 total shipments were 15.40 million in 2014.

 

[Jigorath]

If PS5 comes out in 2019 (which is my guess), PS4 will be around the 80-90m range. How far it goes beyond that depends on whether or not Sony keeps pushing it, or if they just move on completely to PS5.

 

[Obliterator]

No way PS4 finishes sub 100 million imo

 

[DriftingSpirit]

Btw I dont usually do these kinds of things but I've been ungodly busy with work and missed quite a bit in this thread. Anyone mind PMing me a quick overview on what all Software numbers we got in the thread?

Done!

Yep, PS4 is at least 100M. It should be >100M.

 

[BiGBoSSMk23]

I don't think it will hit PS2 numbers b/c merka is declining.

FWIW, in the past weeks I've heard of coworkers' grandsons, girlfriend's sister, cousins, etc ...all grabbing PS4's.

It's kinda nuts. I'm actually interested in seeing the sales numbers now.

 

[Jigorath]

I think 100m is doable, but not a lock.

 

[LeonSPBR]

Thorough analysis as always. Even more so than your prediction for Black Friday:

No. This is the legendary comment xD

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=187455102&postcount=54

Well, after that comment:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=187456236&postcount=67

and then:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=187674306&postcount=222

But i think you guys will know the intere story only reading the Pal Chart week 48.

LOL, noobie plz...

 

[Obliterator]

Done!

You are amazing!

 

[Ryng_tolu]

No way PS4 finishes sub 100 million imo

[2013] 4.50m / 4.50m
[2014] 15.40m / 19.90m
[2015] 17.50m / 37.40m
[2016] 18.00m / 55.40m
[2017] 16.00m / 71.40m
[2018] 12.00m / 83.40m <--------- PS5 year
[2019] 6.00m / 89.40m
[2020] 2.00m / 91.40m
[2021] death

NOTE*: That's not what i predict, is just a scenario where PS4 sells under 100 million

 

[DriftingSpirit]

You are amazing!

 

[Sulik2]

[2013] 4.50m / 4.50m
[2014] 15.40m / 19.90m
[2015] 17.50m / 37.40m
[2016] 18.00m / 55.40m
[2017] 16.00m / 71.40m
[2018] 12.00m / 83.40m <--------- PS5 year
[2019] 6.00m / 89.40m
[2020] 2.00m / 91.40m
[2021] death

NOTE*: That's not what i predict, is just a scenario where PS4 sells under 100 million

Its an interesting theory, but the PS5 won't kill PS4 sales nearly that badly. We haven't seen a mainstream console properly price reduce to a $99 mass market price since the PS2 and that console just never stopped selling at that price. I still think the PS4 has a shot at the end of 10 years to be at 200 million since its innards should be able to be properly price reduced unlike the PS3.

 

[Deleted member 471617]

PS4 should easily go over the 100m mark. It simply comes down to when. Will be real interesting to see how PS4 sells throughout 2016 once their first party exclusives get released.

On a side note - Sony should lower PS3 to $100 just so they can clear out their inventory and so it can hit the 100m mark. That would be history making. Four gen consoles all hitting 100m or higher from the same company. Surprised Sony hasn't done this yet.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Its an interesting theory, but the PS5 won't kill PS4 sales nearly that badly. We haven't seen a mainstream console properly price reduce to a $99 mass market price since the PS2 and that console just never stopped selling at that price. I still think the PS4 has a shot at the end of 10 years to be at 200 million since its innards should be able to be properly price reduced unlike the PS3.

Even for me this PS4 drop is too massive.
But it's not impossible, and that's the point. For what i can say, not even 90 million for PS4 is a given.
Is 99.99% sure, but even that 0.01 % could become true and we can see PS4 < 90 million LT.

I personally believe in around 100 million +-.

About 200 million... well, that's not impossible, like i said, but seem veeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeery hard.

 

[TheXfactor]

Its an interesting theory, but the PS5 won't kill PS4 sales nearly that badly. We haven't seen a mainstream console properly price reduce to a $99 mass market price since the PS2 and that console just never stopped selling at that price. I still think the PS4 has a shot at the end of 10 years to be at 200 million since its innards should be able to be properly price reduced unlike the PS3.

2 problems with that theory, 200 million? lol and comparing anything to the ps2 is just waiting for something to never come. the ps3 didn't do that well in the years after, the ps1 didn't do that in the years after, why the ps4? The PS2 is the anomaly, not the standard.

 

[Obliterator]

I mean the PS3 didnt fall too far short of 100 million. I dont see how its realistically possible for the PS4 to miss that mark unless something drastic happens that completely changed the marketplace in the next couple years like the NX randomly becoming the next Wii

 

[Miles X]

I mean the PS3 didnt fall too far short of 100 million. I dont see how its realistically possible for the PS4 to miss that mark unless something drastic happens that completely changed the marketplace in the next couple years like the NX randomly becoming the next Wii

Because PS3 had an extended lifespan beyond what PS4 will have. Also Japan is a big 5/7m to knock off.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

So far PS4 shipped 9.40 million. ( up YOY compared to 9.00 million of last year)
PS4 total shipments were 15.40 million in 2014.

Wow thought the were much closer for some reason .

 

[N.Domixis]

Because PS3 had an extended lifespan beyond what PS4 will have. Also Japan is a big 5/7m to knock off.

but that will balanced by stealing alot of xbox marketshare in us and uk

 

[benny_a]

but that will balanced by stealing alot of xbox marketshare in us and uk

That trend only holds true if they don't increase the frequency of Xbone firmware updates.

 

[De_Legend]

PS5 being out in 2018 is too early, 2019 is the sooner imo.

 

[KillerMan91]

Because PS3 had an extended lifespan beyond what PS4 will have. Also Japan is a big 5/7m to knock off.

Japan decline will be more like 3-4 million than 5-7 million. After improved sales this year PS4 is not that far off from the pace of PS3 in Japan (PS3 had horrible 2008 in Japan). US alone will make up for those lost sales and then add some extra on top of that.

 

[StevieP]

Its an interesting theory, but the PS5 won't kill PS4 sales nearly that badly. We haven't seen a mainstream console properly price reduce to a $99 mass market price since the PS2 and that console just never stopped selling at that price. I still think the PS4 has a shot at the end of 10 years to be at 200 million since its innards should be able to be properly price reduced unlike the PS3.

200 million? Lol.
Anyway, there will never be another 99 dollar console. There are now hard costs that will never go away. BDROM + HD are going to be 70 for the life of the console, for example. Rest of it (including shipping, retailer margin, soc, memory, PS, etc) aren't going to fit into 20 bucks. Ever.

PS4 should easily go over the 100m mark. It simply comes down to when. Will be real interesting to see how PS4 sells throughout 2016 once their first party exclusives get released.

On a side note - Sony should lower PS3 to $100 just so they can clear out their inventory and so it can hit the 100m mark. That would be history making. Four gen consoles all hitting 100m or higher from the same company. Surprised Sony hasn't done this yet.

They're not going to sell it for a loss. That would be a substantial loss. Dollars are more valuable than arbitrary numbers.

Japan decline will be more like 3-4 million than 5-7 million. After improved sales this year PS4 is not that far off from the pace of PS3 in Japan (PS3 had horrible 2008 in Japan). US alone will make up for those lost sales and then add some extra on top of that.

Yeah... iirc it's still pretty far from the pace of the ps3...

 

[Obliterator]

Because PS3 had an extended lifespan beyond what PS4 will have. Also Japan is a big 5/7m to knock off.

Cant say I agree at all. PS4 will leg out longer than PS3 imo. As it will be priced cheaper and also the sales leader of the generation. End of life cycle PS4 will likely be priced at $150 or so.

And PS4 will have a hugely larger install base in NA than PS3 ever had

 

[viHuGi]

Because PS4 will not be in market for 10 years. Man do people really believe it will sell 150+million? lmao. these hardware will be so outdated by 2017.

So much exciting things are coming out, even Sony themselves wants to get into powerful VR experience. There is going to be a PS5 sooner than there was PS3.

Even if you ignore all this. Just compare the competition PS2 had vs PS4 has right now.

yeah because power know matters for sales, just like original Xbox destroyed Ps2 or Wii didnt sell better than Ps3.

Lmao this post.

 

[serversurfer]

That trend only holds true if they don't increase the frequency of Xbone firmware updates.

Wut? Frequent Bone OS updates will turn the tide? =/

Where'd we put that chalkboard?

 

[Miles X]

Japan decline will be more like 3-4 million than 5-7 million. After improved sales this year PS4 is not that far off from the pace of PS3 in Japan (PS3 had horrible 2008 in Japan). US alone will make up for those lost sales and then add some extra on top of that.

I disagree, no way is PS4 getting anywhere near 7m in Japan, as soon successors launch their the previous system just sinks.

PS4 has so far done on par with PS3 some years. I dunno why people are comparing it to PS2 (in the US).

PS2's first xmas, first full year and second full year;

1,100,000
6,170,000
8,387,000

PS3's first xmas, first full year, second full year;

688,000
2,560,000
3,545,000

PS4's first xmas, first full year, second full year;

2,000,000
4,684,000
4,157,000 + Dec (1.2 - 1.7m) so 5.3/5.8m

Better than PS3 so far, but nowhere near PS2 standards. Also, PS3 was pulling 4m~ in its 5th full year, something I don't think PS5 will have (legs, because of the extended generation PS3 had.)

 

[KillerMan91]

Yeah... iirc it's still pretty far from the pace of the ps3...

After 95 weeks (Media Create numbers)
PS3: 2.403 million
PS4: 2.135 million

I don't think that is that far.

I disagree, no way is PS4 getting anywhere near 7m in Japan, as soon successors launch their the previous system just sinks.

PS4 has so far done on par with PS3 some years. I dunno why people are comparing it to PS2 (in the US).

PS2's first xmas, first full year and second full year;

1,100,000
6,170,000
8,387,000

PS3's first xmas, first full year, second full year;

688,000
2,560,000
3,545,000

PS4's first xmas, first full year, second full year;

2,000,000
4,684,000
4,157,000 + Dec (1.2 - 1.7m) so 5.3/5.8m

Better than PS3 so far, but nowhere near PS2 standards. Also, PS3 was pulling 4m~ in its 5th full year, something I don't think PS5 will have (legs, because of the extended generation PS3 had.)

Well I didn't mean it will hit PS2s US sales. Just that it will sell decently more than PS3 and that will easily offset the decline in Japan. Japan is pretty much only market where PS4 is struggling against PS3 so I really don't see how it wouldn't hit 100 million shorter gen or not. Worldwide it's so far beyond PS3s pace that it's not even funny.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

What is the PS3's LTD in US?

 

[stryke]

What is the PS3's LTD in US?

I'm sure someone esle will come by with a more accurate figure but it's ~25 million about a year ago.

 

[viHuGi]

Do we have the prediction thread yet??

 

[Y2Kev]

That trend only holds true if they don't increase the frequency of Xbone firmware updates.

OK, this one got me. But you forgot the release of Luigi Death Stare 2 on NX.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

I'm sure someone esle will come by with a more accurate figure but it's ~25 million about a year ago.

> 26 million

After 95 weeks (Media Create numbers)
PS3: 2.403 million
PS4: 2.135 million

I don't think that is that far.

The problem is that PS4 should be ALREADY bigger than PS3 For sell close to it LT, but is lower launch allinied... PS4 peak Will be smaller than PS3, and the decline Will be bigger after that.
PS3 LT sales are ~11 million, i see PS4 At 7 million very hard.
I say 6-6.5 million LT in JP.

I disagree, no way is PS4 getting anywhere near 7m in Japan, as soon successors launch their the previous system just sinks.

PS4 has so far done on par with PS3 some years. I dunno why people are comparing it to PS2 (in the US).

PS2's first xmas, first full year and second full year;

1,100,000
6,170,000
8,387,000

PS3's first xmas, first full year, second full year;

688,000
2,560,000
3,545,000

PS4's first xmas, first full year, second full year;

2,000,000
4,684,000
4,157,000 + Dec (1.2 - 1.7m) so 5.3/5.8m

Better than PS3 so far, but nowhere near PS2 standards. Also, PS3 was pulling 4m~ in its 5th full year, something I don't think PS5 will have (legs, because of the extended generation PS3 had.)

I agree with all this, but why you have a possible 1.2m For PS4 this Dec? That's Too low imo... More Like 1.5 to 1.8 million. So, 5.60 million to 6.00m in 2015.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

The problem is that PS4 should be ALREADY bigger than PS3 For sell close to it LT, but is lower launch allinied... PS4 peak Will be smaller than PS3, and the decline Will be bigger after that.
PS3 LT sales are ~11 million, i see PS4 At 7 million very hard.
I say 6-6.5 million LT in JP.

I think next year will show how much PS4 will really do in Japan .
Since it getting a whole bunch of software every month .
Plus i think PS3 had a extra holiday season in those 95 weeks if not they would have been closer .
I should note i don't think it will reach PS3 numbers .

 

[Rymuth]

That trend only holds true if they don't increase the frequency of Xbone firmware updates.

You beautiful bastard, you

 

[serversurfer]

You beautiful bastard, you

I don't get it. Were they bricking consoles or something?

 

[Conduit]

I disagree, no way is PS4 getting anywhere near 7m in Japan, as soon successors launch their the previous system just sinks.

PS4 has so far done on par with PS3 some years. I dunno why people are comparing it to PS2 (in the US).

PS2's first xmas, first full year and second full year;

1,100,000
6,170,000
8,387,000

PS3's first xmas, first full year, second full year;

688,000
2,560,000
3,545,000

PS4's first xmas, first full year, second full year;

2,000,000
4,684,000
4,157,000 + Dec (1.2 - 1.7m) so 5.3/5.8m

Better than PS3 so far, but nowhere near PS2 standards. Also, PS3 was pulling 4m~ in its 5th full year, something I don't think PS5 will have (legs, because of the extended generation PS3 had.)

Well, PS4 passed 2 million mark under 2 years in Japan and that's without biggest JRPG's.

PS3 reached 5 million after almost 3 and a half years in Japan. We will see anyway.

 

[Square2015]

LTDs at this same point:
PSX 4.2m (Sep 97)
PS2 11.7m (Oct 02)
PS3 6.1m (Nov 08)
PS4 10.9m (-this month-)

 

[DarkLordMalik]

LTDs at this same point:
PSX 3.9m
PS2 11.6m
PS3 5.8m
PS4 10.9m

Thanks for the chart. It is really impressive for PS4 as the price it dropped was just $50 compared to the $100 for the PS2, yet it is able to maintain sales fairly close to the PS2.

 

[stryke]

Thanks for the chart. It is really impressive for PS4 as the price it dropped was just $50 compared to the $100 for the PS2, yet it is able to maintain sales fairly close to the PS2.

Trying to isolate a pure cause and effect of the $50 drop is too difficult. It's been muddied by Black Friday shifting sales to November and the drop down to $299.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

Trying to isolate a pure cause and effect of the $50 drop is too difficult. It's been muddied by Black Friday shifting sales to November and the drop down to $299.

Correct me if I am wrong, since I don't live in America, but wouldn't the same apply to PS2? As in wouldn't PS2 get Black Friday deals with cheaper price like PS4 had?

 

[Sorc3r3r]

What's striking me is that we are able to even make a ps2 , ps4 comparison.

2 years ago would have been crazy talk.
I think that the ps4 will not reach the ltd sales of the ps2 just for pricing reasons,a 99 whatever seems impossible to achieve.

 

[hodayathink]

Correct me if I am wrong, since I don't live in America, but wouldn't the same apply to PS2? As in wouldn't PS2 get Black Friday deals with cheaper price like PS4 had?

Black Friday as a phenomenon at the level it is now has only been around about 10 years or so. The day after Thanksgiving was always a big shopping day, but the hoopla around it is much, much bigger than it was during the PS2 generation.

 

[pseudocaesar]

LTDs at this same point:
PSX 3.9m
PS2 11.7m
PS3 6.1m
PS4 10.9m

The thing I find craziest is how low the PS1 sales are.. 4 Million after 2 years.. what? Did it explode later on or did it just not sell that well in the US? For a console that sold over 100M I find it surprising.