James might be the next Big O
By John Hollinger
Can LeBron James do anything more to amaze us?
Watching his overnight transition from high school phenom to NBA superstar has been incredible, especially now that he's stopped biting his nails at every dead ball. James is the most hyped NBA player we've ever seen, yet somehow he's matched the impossible expectations. A skilled, graceful athlete packed into a bruising 6-foot-8, 240-pound frame, he impresses us more with his understanding of the game than with his athleticism. As a result, he's an MVP candidate at the tender age of 20.
James has been so good, so quickly, that it's hard to decide which aspect of his play is the most amazing. Is it his sixth sense for the game? His rapid improvement as a pro? His Magic-like combination of size and ballhandling skill? Or how about the way he's dealt with the fame and fortune, when most players his age would have been caught smoking herb with three underage groupies in a hot tub of Cristal by now?
One could make a case for any of those, but I'll go for a different answer.
The most amazing thing about James is that he has no weaknesses. Think about it. Nearly every player, even a great player, is below average at something. Shaquille O'Neal and Tim Duncan can't make free throws, Steve Nash doesn't play much defense, Kevin Garnett struggles on 3s, Dirk Nowitzki and Kobe Bryant shoot below the league average on 2-pointers. The list goes on.
Not LeBron. He's above average in every measurable skill.
If you're dubious, just look at the evidence. Relative to his peers in the game's nine most important tools scoring, passing, ballhandling, defense, 2-point shooting, 3-point shooting, free-throw shooting, drawing fouls and rebounding James passes the test in every one.
Scoring
Obviously, James is well above average here. His average of 25.5 points per 40 minutes ranks eighth in the NBA, and second to Vince Carter among small forwards. Let's move on.
Passing
James passes here with flying colors as well. He averages over seven assists a game, the top figure among forwards in the NBA. As I mentioned in an earlier piece on Assist Ratio, James is easily the best-passing small forward in basketball.
Ballhandling
James commits 3.4 turnovers a game, which is the sixth-highest total in the league. That sounds bad until we adjust for how many possessions he uses 34.5 a game, second only to Allen Iverson. Out of 34.5 possessions, 3.4 turnovers isn't too shabby it means LeBron commits turnovers on only 9.7 percent of the possessions he uses. Of the 59 small forwards to play at least 500 minutes, only 20 others turn the ball over as infrequently. Additionally, most of the other guys don't get pressed into service at point guard for chunks of every game, making LeBron's turnover avoidance even more impressive.
Defense
James still is a work in progress at the defensive end, but he's already well ahead of the curve. Because of his outstanding anticipation in the passing lanes, he grabs 2.3 steals a game, good for third in the NBA. His overall defense is solid, too, as the Cavs give up 2.2 points fewer per 48 minutes when James is on the court.
2-point shooting
James is shooting 47.5 percent from the field on the season, which is outstanding for a perimeter player. The league average is only 44.3 percent, and most of the players who exceed it are interior players who take close-in shots. Considering only 2-pointers casts James in an even better light. LeBron shoots 50.2 percent from inside the arc, compared to the league-wide norm of 46.9 percent.
3-point shooting
Here's an area where the scouting report on James is more out of date than your uncle's wood-paneled station wagon. The biggest complaint about James when he entered the league was his inability to shoot from long range. Since then he's progressed with lightning speed, shooting 35.6 percent from downtown this season, which just puts him ahead of the league average of 35.5 percent. Moreover, he keeps getting better. James is hitting 39.0 percent in April, including seven rainbows against the Milwaukee Bucks Saturday.
Free-throw shooting
This is the one category where James barely scrapes under the wire. While James's jumper has improved by leaps and bounds, his free-throw stroke hasn't changed much. James is shooting 75.5 percent from the stripe, which beats the league average of 75.3 percent by a whisker.
Drawing fouls
James averages nearly eight free-throw attempts a game, but that's a bit misleading shooting as much as James does, he should get to the line a lot. For a more balanced view, let's use a stat called Free-Throw Rate, which divides free-throw attempts by field-goal attempts. James's 0.38 mark ranks 15th among small forwards, putting him in the top third. While he isn't among the elite in this category, he's far above average because he's so strong and goes to the basket so often.
Rebounding
While James grabbed 18 boards Thursday night and averages over seven a game, this actually is one of his shakiest categories. That's a surprise in light of his physique and athleticism, but he spends so much time on the perimeter that he's not as active as he could be under the boards. As a result, James rebounds just 9.6 percent of the missed shots when he's on the court, ranking 26th among the league's 59 small forwards. That puts him in the upper half and allows him to pass this test, but it's an area he should target for further improvement.
So there it is. Nine categories, nine check marks.
If you run through this list for the entire NBA, you'll be hard-pressed to find one other player who passes all nine tests. James does because he's a rare blend of talents he can do both big-guy things (getting to the line, rebounding, shooting a high percentage) and little-guy things (passing, shooting from distance). While he squeaks by the standard in a couple of categories, his incredible variety of skills makes him unique.
Because of that, perhaps we should change our comparison point for LeBron. Since he turned pro, scribes have instinctively compared him to Michael Jordan, the last dominant perimeter player. However, Jordan dominated more with his massive scoring explosions, especially as a younger player, while James's skills are more broad based.
Thus, a less recent comparison might be more apt: Oscar Robertson. Like James, Robertson was a big, powerful player from the Rust Belt blessed with a point guard's skills. Robertson is the only player to average a triple-double in a season, and James is the only active player with a prayer of being the next.
Even now, James is following more in Robertson's footsteps than Jordan's. James is on pace to become just the fifth player in NBA history to average 25 points, seven assists, and seven rebounds in a season. Robertson pulled off that feat six times, while Jordan did it only once.
Regardless of whose career he emulates more closely, LeBron James is well on his way to being the game's next dominant superstar. The fact he's above the league average in every category in just his second year out of high school only proves how rapid his ascent has been, and how high he could be headed.
