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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses
- Thread starter Holden
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Alx
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R_thanatos
Member
And during the lesgislative right after , the result was even between left and right with a very limited support for Lepen.
We can only hope something similar will happen here.
Palette Swap
Member
Haha, IFOP trolling Filteris and their bullshit: https://twitter.com/ifopopinion/status/856247149474045952
Lol I think Wauquiez was saying this earlier too, ridiculous.
gutter_trash
Banned
just wait for the big cities to finigh counting and Macron will bounce back into 1st
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Yeah but you factor in hidden Le Pen vote and it's really only like 3 points and then the electoral college means anything can happen.
benjipwns
Banned
Don't forget when Russia releases John Podesta's e-mails.
This fucking guy lmao
I'm fucking dead lmao
R_thanatos
Member
Who again ?
Vivid flashbacks to the US election here.
Just wait for Florida to come in it'll be fine, etc.
I mean i'm sure you're right, just observing.
Clintons campaign manager.
whyamihere
Banned
I mean he's already taken the lead and her vote share is continuing to go down.
Frankfurter
Member
It has already happened, though
Macron is first right now and it seems like the gap is getting slightly bigger too.R_thanatos
Member
All the memes from the US election are meaningless in this french election ..
this cannot be stated enough
It already happenned
Palette Swap
Member
You guys should really stop with the terrible analogies, you're out of your depth. He's leading right now, and there's 25% of votes left to report. They're mostly urban and will boost him.
Interesting data on 2nd round's prospect (Ipsos, 2000 ppl sample polled after 8pm)
This is unreadable.
Yup. It's why I'm not too worried about things in Germany, what with their parliamentary system designed to keep out the nutters.
StopMakingSense
Member
fwiw he was not campaign manager, was a campaign chair and close ally.
I'm glad, despite a terrorist attack 2 days before elections, french people keep their cool and did not swing to far right as in UK or the US.
Le Pen did better than FN used to, but not by much. Macron is sure to win now, and Europe to prevail.
Old Europe, as Trump said to disminish it, is here to stay, and lead the world to more wisdom and sanity.
Le Pen did better than FN used to, but not by much. Macron is sure to win now, and Europe to prevail.
Old Europe, as Trump said to disminish it, is here to stay, and lead the world to more wisdom and sanity.
Red Arremer
Member
That's ONLY the Parisienne results, not those of France entirely.
Wafflecakes
Member
Makes sense to me...
Interesting data on 2nd round's prospect (Ipsos, 2000 ppl sample polled after 8pm)
More data on the sociological profiles of the voters (Ipsos too)
By salary
btw yes comparisons with the US are not relevant
I don't get it can you explain for me?
Just wait for him to flip flop: "Europe is no longer old".
R_thanatos
Member
It mean that lepen will get a few of fillon and dupont aignan votes in the second turn , while macron will get the rest
Was gonna say... looks pretty clear to me.
As much as I'd cheer for a woman, a member of a minority, or an LGBT person as a president, let's not overlook the ideas and stances of a candidate... (I assume you were joking anyway.)
benjipwns
Banned
On the left is their vote in the first round, follow the path to see how they plan to vote (or abstain) in the second round.
So to see how Fillon voters plan to vote in the second round, follow the blue paths.
Wafflecakes
Member
First chart is showing who voters will likely vote for second round. So where the voters from the losing candidates go.
Bottom charts are demographic breakdowns.
Red Arremer
Member
What exactly do you not understand? Seems like a regular voting transition chart. The little "arms" going to different points show predictions of which voters will go for which option. So the fat arm going from Melenchon down to Abstention is "we predict this many voters that voted for Melenchon in this round will abstain in the second", etc.
I don't even see "Old Europe" as something bad. I like Old Europe. I like being part of Old Europe.
Our 2 rounds system is also made to keep out the nutters.
Even though they represent almost 25% of the population, the front national only managed to get 2 members elected to parliament ...
A progressive choice that leads to regressive actions.
Palette Swap
Member
This is pretty much what I expected, except for the result by age where I didn't think MLP would be so high among 35+ people.Interesting data on 2nd round's prospect (Ipsos, 2000 ppl sample polled after 8pm)
More data on the sociological profiles of the voters (Ipsos too)
By salary
By level of degree/diploma
By socio-professional category
By age
btw yes comparisons with the US are not relevant
Because of the lack of numbers or you don't understand what it means ?
Which one ?
The first one is how the voters of the 1st round are going to vote in the second round (follow the colors)
The other four charts are how voters did vote today for each big candidate based on their age, diploma, socio-profesionnal category and salary so you can see the détails of the sociological profiles of the voters
AnotherDayAnotherDollar
Banned
Interesting data on 2nd round's prospect (Ipsos, 2000 ppl sample polled after 8pm)
More data on the sociological profiles of the voters (Ipsos too)
By salary
By level of degree/diploma
By socio-professional category
By age
btw yes comparisons with the US are not relevant
So common day workers and poor people are overwhelmingly for LePen whereas rich people and very educated people are overwhelmingly for Macron. Very interesting, Tells us non-french folks a lot actually. Thanks for the data.
Not very pretty but not very surprising (last updated at 22:49):
(source: https://twitter.com/julesbonnard/status/856251433494204417 )
The higher educated you are the less you like LePen. Students are very much not in love with her. Their disruptor of choice is Melenchon not LePen.
At least according to these charts.
And old people are standing for Fillon, which is also not surprising since he is very conservative
(regressive)
Red Arremer
Member
I put in a ghetto "commentary" thing in order to try to explain the voter transition graph. I used the 2 biggest branches of the Melenchon voters and the abstainers going to Macron as examples. I hope this makes it a bit more clear.
Hmmm I think it's worth mentioning that Mélenchon scores high for low incomes as well.
And since you're not french it should be said that : 2000-3000 is hardly "rich", and "niveau bac" (high school education) is hardly "very educated".
They are close to 22% at most tonight with 80% of the voters that did participate today. It's a large score, quite frightening when you think about it, but much weaker than what we all expected (and feared) the last 2 years.
Although yeah our electoral system manages to keep out parties who can't make alliances. But this time at the parliamentary élections we'll see a lot of 2nd round with three to four candidates of each big party (if they have IIRC 11% of the people registered). That way they can get a great number of MPs and their goal will likely to be the first opposing force in the Parliament. So we might see 50+ FN MPs.
Palette Swap
Member
Yeah, the legislative elections are going to be a triangular graveyard.
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