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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

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Averon

Member
Politico is the tabloids of the political news realm. Anything they post must be taken with a huge grain of salt.

Going to have President numbers in Iowa and Ohio tomorrow...Obama looking pretty good in both

Romney can't afford to lose OH. I can't see a path to 270 for him without OH. Obama getting IA is just icing on the cake.
 
Aaron Strife with another wildly off base congressional election prediction? Oh my
hahahahahahaha christ

Averon said:
Romney can't afford to lose OH. I can't see a path to 270 for him without OH. Obama getting IA is just icing on the cake.
Obama would probably win Iowa sooner than Ohio. It's something of a bellwether state, it's only gone red once in the past five elections (in 2004, when Bush won the popular vote).

It's trending away but Obama still won by a big margin in 2008. I'd guess the reason it doesn't get that much attention is because it's too small a state to swing an election on its own. That's Florida and Ohio. This is also why the coalition of Kerry states+IA/NV/NM/CO (the most likely scenario for a close Obama victory) doesn't get much play in the media. It's easier to push winning one BIG state as determining the election than it is winning a bunch of smaller states.

Kerry+IA/OH is also a winning combination, so it's good that he's doing well in those states.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/...stry_n_1498520.html?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000003

During an interview with WEWS-TV in Cleveland following a campaign stop, Romney said his views helped save the industry.

"I pushed the idea of a managed bankruptcy," Romney said. "And finally, when that was done, and help was given, the companies got back on their feet. So I'll take a lot of credit for the fact that this industry's come back."
I'm a bit testy today. With that noted, I read this and thought, Romney can go fuck himself so goddamn hard. What a sad sack of shit.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Am I the only one that gets giddy with the thought of him trying to spout stupid shit like this with Obama standing a couple feet from him?

I basically do a reflexive impression of the Grinch grin every time I think of Romney trying it in a debate. It will not end well for him.
 
I basically do a reflexive impression of the Grinch grin every time I think of Romney trying it in a debate. It will not end well for him.
Romney: "Thanks to my ideas, the auto industry has been saved!"

Obama: "You said in an editorial to let Detroit go bankrupt"

Possible responses:

A) "I fired the intern who wrote that for me, I'm running for office for Pete's sake!"
B) "President Obama is just trying to distract us from the real issues here, like in his book when he admitted to eating an entire dog"
C) "BABA BOOEY BABA BOOEY HOWARD STERN'S PENIS"
D) Doesn't respond, instead runs an attack ad the next day featuring a clip of Obama saying "Let Detroit go bankrupt" while quoting Romney. What's good for the goose is good for the gander!
 

Gr1mLock

Passing metallic gas
Romney: "Thanks to my ideas, the auto industry has been saved!"

Obama: "You said in an editorial to let Detroit go bankrupt"

Possible responses:

A) "I fired the intern who wrote that for me, I'm running for office for Pete's sake!"
B) "President Obama is just trying to distract us from the real issues here, like in his book when he admitted to eating an entire dog"
C) "BABA BOOEY BABA BOOEY HOWARD STERN'S PENIS"
D) Doesn't respond, instead runs an attack ad the next day featuring a clip of Obama saying "Let Detroit go bankrupt" while quoting Romney. What's good for the goose is good for the gander!

He'll just pick 'all of the above'
 
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/...stry_n_1498520.html?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000003


I'm a bit testy today. With that noted, I read this and thought, Romney can go fuck himself so goddamn hard. What a sad sack of shit.

Good luck with that shit in a debate, Romney. Even Rick Snyder agreed with the bailout. And yes a managed bankruptcy occurred but Romney wasn't apart of the conversation.

Obama should just say something like "there were plenty of republicans involved in the discussions on the auto bailout, yet not one of them argued for letting Detroit go bankrupt as you did."
 

eznark

Banned
Primary day! My in-laws are nuts. I just got a big binder with information on all of the local races from them. There are like 30 articles going back years on the county treasurer candidates. Who gives a shit? Also, why are there 7 people running for coroner.

Gee I wonder why no one is asking him about his Let Detroit Go Bankrupt article, and how he specifically mentioned that government shouldn't prop up the failing auto industry?
Those questions are best left for the fall. Spring and summer is for eating dogs and 20 year old letters.
 
There is no way Obama loses if he takes Virginia. Which latest polls have him +7. He could lose NC, Ohio, Fla, Iowa, NH and still win if he holds Nevada, NM and Colo. With Colorado being the only toss-up of the 3.

This game is over folks. All Obama has to do is take Virginia.
 
There is no way Obama loses if he takes Virginia. Which latest polls have him +7. He could lose NC, Ohio, Fla, Iowa, NH and still win if he holds Nevada, NM and Colo. With Colorado being the only toss-up of the 3.

This game is over folks. All Obama has to do is take Virginia.

[insert PhoenixDark here]
 

eznark

Banned
There is no way Obama loses if he takes Virginia. Which latest polls have him +7. He could lose NC, Ohio, Fla, Iowa, NH and still win if he holds Nevada, NM and Colo. With Colorado being the only toss-up of the 3.

This game is over folks. All Obama has to do is take Virginia.

I totally agree that Obama will win going away, but you do realize it's May right?
 

Tim-E

Member
Primary day in West Virginia! The Board of Education campaign in my district is a feisty one! People are angry that one of the candidates stands on the sidelines at football games and signals plays the opposing team is doing to our team!
 

eznark

Banned
If he keeps it within 12 I will be stunned. It's especially interesting considering Dan Coats easily survived tea party challenges in 2010.
 
If he keeps it within 12 I will be stunned. It's especially interesting considering Dan Coats easily survived tea party challenges in 2010.

It's because he replaced Evan Bayh and was untested in national politics. He probably took extreme right wing positions and won. Dick Lugar can't do that because his record is that of someone moderate (compared to others), so he was easy to pick apart by tea party groups and superpacs.
 

eznark

Banned
It's because he replaced Evan Bayh and was untested in national politics. He probably took extreme right wing positions and won. Dick Lugar can't do that because his record is that of someone moderate (compared to others), so he was easy to pick apart by tea party groups and superpacs.

Coats ran right down the middle. He was supported by the party while Hotstetter was the challenger and the TP guy, Stutzman, had a late start and DeMint's group didn't back him til kind of late in the process. If the campaign had been a couple weeks longer Coats probably would have lost. It ended up splitting 40/30/20 or so.

lol at Dan Coats taking extreme right wing positions.
 
Good luck with that shit in a debate, Romney. Even Rick Snyder agreed with the bailout. And yes a managed bankruptcy occurred but Romney wasn't apart of the conversation.

Obama should just say something like "there were plenty of republicans involved in the discussions on the auto bailout, yet not one of them argued for letting Detroit go bankrupt as you did."

I'm willing to bet lots of money that "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt" is the new "The fundamentals of the Economy are Strong" this year
 
Coats ran right down the middle. He was supported by the party while Hotstetter was the challenger and the TP guy, Stutzman, had a late start and DeMint's group didn't back him til kind of late in the process. If the campaign had been a couple weeks longer Coats probably would have lost. It ended up splitting 40/30/20 or so.

lol at Dan Coats taking extreme right wing positions.

I was just guessing. It's harder to prove someone is not "pure" if he's running for first time than it is for someone who's running for 3 decades. So I guess vote split helped him.

By the way, http://www.thedailybeast.com/newswe...e-tea-party-is-now-irrelevant-in-indiana.html
 

eznark

Banned
I was just guessing. It's harder to prove someone is not "pure" if he's running for first time than it is for someone who's running for 3 decades. So I guess vote split helped him.

By the way, http://www.thedailybeast.com/newswe...e-tea-party-is-now-irrelevant-in-indiana.html

I guess you must be confusing him with someone else since Coats was in the senate through all of the 1990's. Or maybe I'm just misunderstanding your point.

Newsweek, prescient as always!
 

thefro

Member
I will not mourn him getting the boot, but it's so funny - and sad - that's he's getting it for not being conservative enough. He's very conservative, and he voted in near lockstep with the party. But "near" isn't enough; the base moved even further right than he did.

If Lugar loses today as expected, it's going to put his Senate seat up for grabs.

Joe Donnelly is a pretty good candidate for the Dems. No Mitch Daniels coattails either and I don't think anyone really likes Mike Pence running for governor (but he'll probably win anyway).
 

GhaleonEB

Member
TPM reader nails it:

Is Romney taking credit for the auto recovery really anyone takes seriously? Besides getting tied up in irritation about what his position really was, the frank facts of history are that it doesn’t matter what his positions were/are/might have been, anymore that it mattered what I or you or most people thought at the time. Obama was the only one of the two people running for president that was in a position to, and did make a decision regarding policy that affected the future of that industry. It turned out to work. He gets the credit, just like he would have taken the fall. Everyone else’s thoughts on this were just parlor talk, and meaningless, which means no credit is assigned.

I don’t get to take credit for the success of apple’s iPhone even though I thought it would be a good idea to have a phone like that. Its ridiculous and part of what makes this whole exercise of presidential campaigns annoying to watch, since Romney seems to be able to offer up that form of comment, and then were stuck arguing whether he deserves or doesn’t deserve credit. It’s not even an option in his case. He was an out of work rich guy. He didn’t do anything. It’s weird.

At best Romney’s comment should be understood as, I agreed with what President Obama did, but somehow we’re stuck in this bizarre story of who gets to take credit. Only one of the two actors in this was in a position to do anything, and it wasn’t the vacationing rich guy.

This is going to be a really long 5-6 months, isn’t it?
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/05/long_time_until_november.php?ref=fpblg
 

ToxicAdam

Member
PPP has Obama up by 7 in Ohio. Obama has a 48/48 approval rating whereas Romney has a dismal 37/53. Which just shows that Romney can't connect with the "average" person.

Romney could have been helped out by a strong Senatorial candidate that would drive up turnout, but Mandel is not that guy. He looks like he's 16 years old.
 
PPP has Obama up by 7 in Ohio. Obama has a 48/48 approval rating whereas Romney has a dismal 37/53. Which just shows that Romney can't connect with the "average" person.

Romney could have been helped out by a strong Senatorial candidate that would drive up turnout, but Mandel is not that guy.

Fucking doomed.
 

Tim-E

Member
Romney needs to play it safe and pick someone dry like Portman who draws no attention to themselves. Then again, it'll do even more to bore everyone of the Romney ticket.
 

GhaleonEB

Member

Also, from the PPP poll:

Rob Portman has received perhaps more attention as a potential running mate for Romney than anyone else over the last month but even with all of that publicity he remains a relatively obscure figure in the state. 36% of voters have no opinion on his job performance, the highest level of indifference we’ve found to any of the 87 sitting Senators we’ve polled on in their home states. Those who do have a take on Portman are closely divided with 31% approving of him to 33% who disapprove.
Between the thin level of recognition, and little evidence of a home state effect, Romney would be foolish to pick Portman.

Personally, I hope his love affair with Paul Ryan continues right through the veepstakes.
 

Tim-E

Member
Also, from the PPP poll:


Between the thin level of recognition, and little evidence of a home state effect, Romney would be foolish to pick Portman.

Personally, I hope his love affair with Paul Ryan continues right through the veepstakes.

I'd probably spend a straight day laughing if he picked Ryan.
 
I want to write a paragraph on why this thinking is incredibly dangerous in our society, but will suffice with a simple comparison.

April 1980. Jimmy Carter gives the go ahead to rescue American Embassy hostages in Tehran. Military brass call for 6 helicopters, yet President Carter insists on getting 8. JSOC displays incredible ineptitude. Fuel calculations were off. Pilots screw up. Everything goes to crapper. Had it not been for 8 helicopters, the operation would've been total fuckup, instead of just a fuckup.

Yet who is blamed for the failure? Jimmy Carter.

Bin Laden's kill. Even a riskier operation. The military including Sec of Defense tells Obama that the probability of finding UBL in that compound is lower than the probability was of finding WMDs in Iraq. Obama also includes extra choppers, and gives the go ahead.

Mission success, but only the spec ops are given the credit?

Fuck people who cannot think. Seriously.
 
PPP has Obama up by 7 in Ohio. Obama has a 48/48 approval rating whereas Romney has a dismal 37/53. Which just shows that Romney can't connect with the "average" person.

Romney could have been helped out by a strong Senatorial candidate that would drive up turnout, but Mandel is not that guy. He looks like he's 16 years old.
Of all the swing states, why do you think Romney is faring the worst in Ohio? Dat Kasich drag?
 

ToxicAdam

Member
Of all the swing states, why do you think Romney is faring the worst in Ohio? Dat Kasich drag?

Democrats want it to be true, but Kasich isn't harming the party. He currently has a 44/42 approval rating and is still trending upwards. I find it dubious that anyone votes for a President based upon how they feel about a Governor anyways. Unless of course that Governor is also up for election in the same year.

Romney's problems in Ohio are just the same one's he has around the country. Not popular with people making less than 50k (working class), not popular with women and not popular with minorities. There's nothing currently in his campaign that is going to turn that around.


---


Also, the PPP is just one poll. There are other polls that show it much closer.
 
Of all the swing states, why do you think Romney is faring the worst in Ohio? Dat Kasich drag?

I fully expect Polls to tighten up leading into the conventions, with Romney even being shown as leading in some swing states (Florida, NC are prime examples for this)

While, we shouldn't ignore current polling, it is just entirely too early to get a good picture of the race.
 
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