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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

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Qazaq

Banned
Walker by 2-3, Romney wins Wisconsin in November due to a completely demoralized and bitter democrat party in the state

Should have waited for a November recall


You really are SO irritating.

Colorado: Polls show Obama's 08 lead has vanished, and the state is becoming more conservative/evangelical

No it's not, Colorado has had such a tremendous shift in becoming so much more liberal over the years. Like, actually liberal. To say it's becoming conservative/evangelical is just so completely...wrong.
 
No it's not, Colorado has had such a tremendous shift in becoming so much more liberal over the years. Like, actually liberal. To say it's becoming conservative/evangelical is just so completely...wrong.
I would hesitate to call any state that voted for a Democratic senator AND governor in 2010 (both aligned closely with Obama - Bennet especially) anything worse than a toss-up.

But then PD doesn't know what he's talking about.

cartoon_soldier said:
And you wake up and its Wednesday Morning.
Probably from all the partying.
 
I would hesitate to call any state that voted for a Democratic senator AND governor in 2010 (both aligned closely with Obama - Bennet especially) anything worse than a toss-up.

But then PD doesn't know what he's talking about.

Yea, CO and NC were the two states where Democrats performed decently in 2010. CO for Senate/Governor and NC with GOP only flipping 1 seat
 
Yea, CO and NC were the two states where Democrats performed decently in 2010. CO for Senate/Governor and NC with GOP only flipping 1 seat
Democrats also did well in California, Delaware, West Virginia, and Hawaii - states where they'd be expected to perform (except for WV, which is blood red in presidential elections).

In NC their congressional seats were a bit foolproof because of the Democratic gerrymander in 2000, one reason why the GOP gerrymander this year is such a loss for Democrats - it turns a blue gerrymander into a red one, doubling the impact (in states like MI, PA, OH etc. the maps were already gerrymanders and the new ones are just slightly worse).
 

eznark

Banned
I would hesitate to call any state that voted for a Democratic senator AND governor in 2010 (both aligned closely with Obama - Bennet especially) anything worse than a toss-up.
.

Remember when Wisconsin leaned Dem last week? By your definition it should be a toss up.

foisted!
 

Particle Physicist

between a quark and a baryon
"Come on dah-ling, join Sara Jessica and Me-shell Obama for a night to remember."

Could they have found someone pretentious sounding?

Uh. I'm pretty sure women in New York are familiar with Vogue and Sarah Jessica Parker. Obviously this ad is only meant to be local.
 

Diablos

Member
Can't wait for PhoenixDark and eznark to tell us Massachusetts is up for grabs, too!

Uh, what?
He said it's not an ad.

And really, it's not. I don't think anyone at the Obama campaign wants this to be at the forefront of their advertising strategy. Don't count on seeing this on tv all too much if at all.
 

Chichikov

Member
I'll be over at the cool kids clubhouse when E3 shuts OT down.
We can talk in code on the gaming side.

"I think the economy has to tank pretty badly for Left Behind: Eternal Forces to have any chance of outselling GTA San Andreas this holiday season".

wink wink.
 
Last PPP poll of WI recall: Walker 50 Barrett 47.

Still a GOP lean, but not unwinnable. We'll see on Tuesday. As PPP's tweet says:

PPP said:
Our projected WI electorate voted for Obama by 7. He won the state by 14. Close that enthusiasm gap in the last 36 hours and Barrett wins
From what I've heard, turnout is pretty close to maxed out in Milwaukee and Madison (the two big Dem strongholds), but Barrett would have to stay competitive outstate to actually win. This'll be a test of his GOTV operation in those areas.
 

Hnkee.gif
 

Averon

Member
No OH or FL, but VA? And IA+CO+NV?

I think Obama will win either OH or FL but not both (probably FL, I dunno). It will be hard for him to win Nevada because they have the worst UE and that's probably not going to change.

Obama's been performing very well in VA even during his toughest times. The rapidly changing demographics of the state is making it very purple (if not outright blue) at the presidential level. It's the same story for NC, though that state isn't tilting nearly as blue as VA is.

VA going blue, NC becoming a legit battleground state, and western states like CO leaning blue is making the EC map tilt in favor of Democrats. Unless the GOP pick off some lean blue states (like WI or OR), the EC map will get really tough for them in the coming years.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
So there's this new talking point that Romney was 51st in job creation when he started as Gov. in Mass, and when he left was 30th.

Anyone have the facts on this?
 

leroidys

Member
Man when did the economist comments section turn into yahoo news?

Obama doesn't rely on economic knowledge he has his extreme left wing ideology to provide all the economic solutions he needs. And it shows. After nearly 4 years the U.S. has the worst long term UNEMPLOYMENT since the Great Depression. The lowest percentage of the American people working since 1981, and the longest period of UNEMPLOYMENT over 8% since the Great Depression. And now the U.S. is headed back into recession and UNEMPLOYMENT has started shooting back up. What Obama knows about economics can be found in the corrupt politics of Chicago, and/or Das Kapital. Not since the start of the Great Depression has a President intentionally inflicted such damaging failed economic policies on the nation!

It's everywhere! This isn't even worse than some of the other comments - just shorter. Maybe those Chinese dime bloggers changed tack.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Wait, so how is poligaf gonna talk about all the shit going on this week if everything besides gaming is gonna be closed?

Do we have a contingency forum we can all meet up at?
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Yet another Republican waxing nostalgically at a President that never existed.

I can tell you how he differs from George Bush, and so can Bill Clinton, who we just saw on tape. This president [Obama] is telling the American people the biggest problem we have are other Americans that are holding the economy back. And Bill Clinton was a "new business" Democrat, a new Democrat. The president's job, Bill Clinton thought, was to grow the economy, grow it for everybody, and not just redistribute what some Americans have.
 

eznark

Banned
Last PPP poll of WI recall: Walker 50 Barrett 47.

Still a GOP lean, but not unwinnable. We'll see on Tuesday. As PPP's tweet says:


From what I've heard, turnout is pretty close to maxed out in Milwaukee and Madison (the two big Dem strongholds), but Barrett would have to stay competitive outstate to actually win. This'll be a test of his GOTV operation in those areas.

For some reason PPP decided to drop the third party candidate from their polling this time around. Barrett gained 2 points from last time to this one, and if I remember correctly that third party nutter got right around 2. The guy is on ballots, so I don't know why they didn't keep him on the poll.


I'm sticking with 6 point win for Walker. I didn't predict the race last time, but it looks like the only senate race that will be close is the Wanggaard race. I think he will lose.

Nevermind, I'm voting Barrett. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w95O2snV430
 

Averon

Member
Breitbart's spirit is trapped in that painting. If you place an infant in front of it, Breitbart will be able to posses him to gain a physical form before the November election.

I thought of Ghost Busters 2 too when I saw that pic. The resemblance at first glance is uncanny.
 
Here's Obama's campaign's map:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=mkK

Odd but understandable (imo) that Wisconsin and New Hampshire are toss-ups, when polls in both have Obama winning by decent margins. I'm sure a lot of that has to do with enthusiasm and maintaining the image of a close race, and things can change depending on the economy and other events. I don't think the WI recall will have much effect on the presidential election though, much to PD's dismay (I can imagine a certain subset of swing voters going for Obama but against recalls on principle, and depressed Dem turnout only goes so far - minorities and youth will still be mobilized to vote for Obama).

The minimum Obama would need to win under such a map would be Wisconsin, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Colorado. It's certainly doable and in a close election, I'd say Romney's the underdog.
 

eznark

Banned
Making any predictions now is kind of a waste of time. Obama will have the opportunity for some heroic moments as Europe descends into chaos. Also with this whole zombie breakout Obamas willingness to murder US citizens is going to play well.
 

eznark

Banned
Weaskamerica.com just released a poll showing Walker up 13. Their model used a much higher turnout number than others (73%). Using the 60% ish number they have Walker up 6.
 
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