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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

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GhaleonEB

Member
"@ppppolls: Romney's favorability nationally is now 29/57, including 32/55 with independents"

Wait . . . am I reading that right? Romney now has a majority of unfavorable rating?

Wow. What was it? Flip-flopping wasn't new. I'm wondering if it is the 13.9% tax rate plus Cayman Island and Swiss bank accounts? I still think that is a tough sell on people who are paying (or think they are paying) a higher rate.

Click this.

Florida demolished his favorable ratings.

At least 3.3 trillion. Even more if Congress 'does nothing' on a bunch of other assorted tax cuts.

donothingplancbpp.jpg


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...h-71-trillion/2011/08/25/gIQAmfIIYN_blog.html

Yup. Deficit is solvable and is a result of a handful of perpetually extended policies.
 
Except I've noticed that almost all conservatives on gaf stay out of poliGAF threads. If you made a thread in OT right now abou t th eupcoming budget, I guarantee you'd get tons of conservatives showing up talkign about obama's spending and whatnot who never show up in poligaf (and never showed up when i t was on OT).

Even on this forum the echo chamber applies because conservatives avoid PoliGAF.

I'd still disagree. The American right show up but then get "owned" by the rational. Some eventually convert some stay stubborn.
 

daedalius

Member
Except I've noticed that almost all conservatives on gaf stay out of poliGAF threads. If you made a thread in OT right now abou t th eupcoming budget, I guarantee you'd get tons of conservatives showing up talkign about obama's spending and whatnot who never show up in poligaf (and never showed up when i t was on OT).

Even on this forum the echo chamber applies because conservatives avoid PoliGAF.

There usually seems to be pretty reasonable discussion in here, if you make a valid point/argument you probably aren't going to get jumped on regardless of the 'side' you are on.

I have no problem with a conservative point of view, though I may disagree with it; but you can't come in here and A27(Starwolf) everything and expect anyone to listen to you or your viewpoints.

Maybe that is why some of the staunch conservatives on gaf who only listen to fox news/talk radio avoid Poligaf? If you can't come up with substantive discussion (aka you only spout talking points), I think you can get banned, heh.
 
At least 3.3 trillion. Even more if Congress 'does nothing' on a bunch of other assorted tax cuts.

donothingplancbpp.jpg


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...h-71-trillion/2011/08/25/gIQAmfIIYN_blog.html
Yeah, it is really the cry baby nature of the electorate that is biggest problem. The problems can be solved by taking some hard medicine. . . . but the cry-baby electorate will throw out anyone who does the right thing.

“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been 200 years.”
― Alexis de Tocqueville
 

Clevinger

Member
was his father a flip flopper or something? it that were to run in the family lol wow

No. Everything I've read about George Romney makes him seem like the opposite of Mitt; a decent man with credibility. One of the more impressive things about him, to me, is he was genuinely affected by seeing the poor suffer on his missionary trips to poor parts of Scotland, so much so that it made him question his faith.

I'm sure he had loads of flaws, but the apple seems to have fallen pretty far from the tree.
 

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
No. Everything I've read about George Romney makes him seem like the opposite of Mitt; a decent man with credibility. One of the more impressive things about him, to me, is he was genuinely affected by seeing the poor suffer on his missionary trips to poor parts of Scotland, so much so that it made him question his faith.

I'm sure he had loads of flaws, but the apple seems to have fallen pretty far from the tree.

What is that supposed to mean, question his faith? Anyone who doesn't reexamine his faith and beliefs over the course of a lifetime is a fool, even the hardened atheist. The man was a stake president in the Mormon church, which is a fairly high calling, somewhat likened to a bishop in the catholic church.

Mitt probably feels the same way about poverty as most Americans, the difference is, he mistakenly believes that everyone is capable of pulling themselves up by the bootstraps and being monetarily successful. When in reality, most people are too stupid, lazy, uneducated, unmotivated, or disadvantaged by lifes circumstances to really make it on any substantial level.
 

zargle

Member
The funny thing is Romney really can't attack Santorum on the virtues on why he is unelectable in the General Election without pissing off that portion of the base. His only hope is Newt goes Nuclear on Santorum instead, or other 'establishment' that don't need to worry about getting elected. Right now Santorum hasn't gotten much full on media exposure due to his lack of money (can't get lots of ads) and the media thinking he is a joke candidate most of the election cycle.

Sounds like a job for someone angling for the bottom half of the ticket. So we shall see who is willing to pick up the hatchet for that gift.

Edit: Also, was this posted? Mitt might not even be able to hold onto the small victories it seems. http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/02/14/pressure_builds_to_reconsider_maine_caucus_results.html
 
Yeah, it is really the cry baby nature of the electorate that is biggest problem. The problems can be solved by taking some hard medicine. . . . but the cry-baby electorate will throw out anyone who does the right thing.

“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been 200 years.”
― Alexis de Tocqueville

Well what system would you prefer that could be a permanent form of government?

Wow. Honestly?

Yes honestly. Recall that I said "AMERICAN RIGHT". Judging from your posts, I wouldn't call you right-wing by American standards. Nor anybody in Poligaf. Well except Jaydubya but he's gone now.
 

Tawpgun

Member
Who is A27?

I AM A27.

I was reading through the militant secularism thing in europe thread. Was reminded of Rick Perry, Santorum, and a bunch of the other GOP candidates.

I liked this image.

jon-stewart-on-christians-in-america.png


Ignore the dumb Jon Stewart braindead liberal brainwashing daily show bias, of course.
That awkward moment when a comedian can articulate talk about politics better and with more intelligence than most politicians....
 

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
Ugh, the "we're right because we're so brilliant" circle-jerk had concluded, DON'T BRING IT BACK!! Please!!!

If it comes back, I'm blaming you, AlteredBeast.

:( I should have let it go, and while I agree that many so-called conservatives are merely ignorant youngsters that rely on fear mongerers from righting radio and tv shows for their "news" and are therefore mosinformed, a great deal of actual conservative positions are tenable and fair.

Right vs left is not right vs wrong. It is uniformed vs informed that is the greatest battle we must face.
 
:( I should have let it go, and while I agree that many so-called conservatives are merely ignorant youngsters that rely on fear mongerers from righting radio and tv shows for their "news" and are therefore mosinformed, a great deal of actual conservative positions are tenable and fair.

Right vs left is not right vs wrong. It is uniformed vs informed that is the greatest battle we must face.

There comes to a point when you can't really go further in the spectrum without being wrong. Vice versa how I'd say some of the left in Latin American countries are just largely uninformed. Again I wouldn't consider you or Toxic Adam "right" to American standards.
 

GaimeGuy

Volunteer Deputy Campaign Director, Obama for America '16
Maybe I heard this wrong, but if the Buffet tax was implemented, it would only bring in $1.5 trillion of revenue over the next ten years? That........doesn't sound like a lot when you factor in the increase of spending over the 10 years. =\

How much revenue would be collected over the next 10 years if the Bush tax cuts expired for everyone?


http://money.cnn.com/2010/12/07/news/economy/tax_cut_deal_obama/index.htm

The bush tax cuts would cost 3.7 trillion dollars (and that's the conservative estimate, btw) if they continued through the rest of the decade. Since they were extended through 2012 (as mentioned in the cnn link), if congress continues ot extend the bush tax cuts, it will cost 3.15 trillion for the rest of the decade. That's on top of the $2.5-3T they already cost from 2001-2010

What really needs to be done is this:
1. Let the bush tax cuts expire (MAYBE keep the bottom 2 income rates of 10% and 15%)
2. Eliminate the social security wage base. All income should be subject to social security taxation, not just the first $110,100.
3. let the estate tax return to the 2001-2002 levels next year.
4. After the bush tax cuts expire, the long term capital gains rate goes up from 15% to 20% (10% for the 15% income bracket). More than half of all capital gains were earned by the top 0.1% last year. Increase the long term capital gains tax rate to 33% and 35% for the 2nd highest and highest brackets, respectively. That will allow people in those brackets to reduce their tax burden through capital gains, but not to a point below the income or capital gains tax levels for individuals in the other brackets. I personally believe that capital gains should be taxed at a higher rate than income (not because it is inherently evil, but because I believe money earned through labor should not be taxed at a higher rate than money earned through investment. Ever. The capitalist's share of the fruits of the laborer's labor should not be taxed at a lower rate than the laborer's share.), but the suggestion I've made here is a reasonable compromise, I think.

I haven't even touched corporate taxes or loopholes like hedge fund managers being able to classify their wages and other compensation as capital gains instead of income, but this is a good start. Even if congress does nothing with regards to taxes, they can achieve 6-7 trillion in deficit reductions over the next decade. items 1 and 3 are aspects of that figure. Item 4 would probably send that above 10 trillion since the buffet rule only a pplies to millionaires and taxes at a lower rate than my suggestion)

Maybe let the payroll tax cut expire, but I'd like to see how these suggestions do first.
 
:( I should have let it go, and while I agree that many so-called conservatives are merely ignorant youngsters that rely on fear mongerers from righting radio and tv shows for their "news" and are therefore mosinformed, a great deal of actual conservative positions are tenable and fair.

Right vs left is not right vs wrong. It is uniformed vs informed that is the greatest battle we must face.
How do you square that assertion with the right's aggressive hostility to intellectualism?

As for StarWolf, I appreciated that he at least attempted to make the right sort of noises about intellectual openness. His boorish defensiveness at having the limits of his knowledge exposed I did not care for so much.
 
So is PoliGAF aware that HR 3864 would basically defund Mass Transit completely by 2016?

It's pretty disgusting, actually. They have a shortfall in highway funding, so they are eliminating the portion of federal gas tax receipts that go to funding mass transit entirely. They're going to give it a one time $40B transfer for mass transit funding that will probably not quite pay for the mass transportation costs for the next five years. After that, all funding is up in the air. The major problem with this is that any improvements or mass transit projects span much longer periods of time, and since funding for them would be in doubt it would be very difficult to make those plans.

The real issue is that tax receipts from federal gas tax are down. Instead of doing the right thing and raising federal gas tax or pegging it to inflation they are instead gutting the future funding of mass transit. Mass transit is going to be the only thing that protects the average US citizen against rising energy costs in the future as it is.
 
At least 3.3 trillion. Even more if Congress 'does nothing' on a bunch of other assorted tax cuts.

donothingplancbpp.jpg


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...h-71-trillion/2011/08/25/gIQAmfIIYN_blog.html

That's an extremely optimistic projection of how quickly the current deficit can drop. For one, it's essentially assuming some substantial Medicare cuts, not that I'm all too against such an entitlement reduction. As I've stated before, I do not believe the Obamacare cost and revenue projections are realistic.

Also, what is does specifically refer to?:
$1.2 trillion from letting the sequestration of spending required if the Joint Committee does not produce $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction take effect

I'd like to the see the annual military budget numbers within this budget as well. And, I like how the projections stop in the early 2020s- just when the Social Security obligations begin to skyrocket.
 
Isn't that what he's saying? The right wing leaders are fostering an anti-intellectualism culture so that they won't lose their flock.
Sort of? I'm not saying it's the case that the left is always correct, but frequently it is the case in the U.S. that to be on the conservative/Republican side of an issue is to be invested in a position that is not rooted in empirical or historical evidence. So (and again, I want to make it clear that I am not trying to equate the Left with correctness) the conflict is between the Informed and the Right.
 

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
How do you square that assertion with the right's aggressive hostility to intellectualism?

As for StarWolf, I appreciated that he at least attempted to make the right sort of noises about intellectual openness. His boorish defensiveness at having the limits of his knowledge exposed I did not care for so much.

"The right" you speak of are intellectually and morally depraved individuals who would leave the poor and weak to suffer, while also preventing free expression and progressive ideals.

"right" on the other hand, a true dedication to conservative ideals, keeping the government out of every facet of business and personal control, is not an inherently evil, wrong, anti-intellectual position as many here would have you believe.

I despise "the right", but hold firm to conservative ideals that may or may not have anything to do with existing GOP, Tea Party, or Libertarian ideals.
 
Well what system would you prefer that could be a permanent form of government?

Many forms of Government have been tried and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.

-Winston Churchill
 
Sort of? I'm not saying it's the case that the left is always correct, but frequently it is the case in the U.S. that to be on the conservative/Republican side of an issue is to be invested in a position that is not rooted in empirical or historical evidence. So (and again, I want to make it clear that I am not trying to equate the Left with correctness) the conflict is between the Informed and the Right.

He doesn't make excuses for the uninformed conservative portions. He IS however, calling people who who dump every single person with conservative viewpoints, however well grounded on reason, as uninformed.
 
Well what system would you prefer that could be a permanent form of government?

At the very least one where you only have the people vote for their representatives, not their laws. That's the whole point of representatives in the first place: It was the compromise between the federalist view of only having educated people vote and the (democratic) Republican view of having everyone (who owned land and wasn't a woman) vote.
 

GaimeGuy

Volunteer Deputy Campaign Director, Obama for America '16
"The right" you speak of are intellectually and morally depraved individuals who would leave the poor and weak to suffer, while also preventing free expression and progressive ideals.

"right" on the other hand, a true dedication to conservative ideals, keeping the government out of every facet of business and personal control, is not an inherently evil, wrong, anti-intellectual position as many here would have you believe.

I despise "the right", but hold firm to conservative ideals that may or may not have anything to do with existing GOP, Tea Party, or Libertarian ideals.

even the left in the US didn't support creating the FAA until there were several midair collisions involving both military and civilian flights, or about crreating medicare until they realized that the employer based model didn't accomodate people who were on disability leave or retired, etc.

The left in the US generally only looks towards government when other options fail.
The right in the US generally opposes government being involved, period, regardless of how things are going.

Those descriptions above, in ideological terms, are center-right and far right, respectively.


Your conservative ideals are alive and well in the democratic party.
 
2. Eliminate the social security wage base. All income should be subject to social security taxation, not just the first $110,100.
I brought this up a long time ago, but can someone explain the cons for paying Medicare and Social Security through federal income taxes instead of the specific labor tax? It seems that you'd capture even more sources of revenue (capital gains, dividends, etc.) for those programs if you didn't limit it to simply labor income and wouldn't have to worry about these caps.
 
"The right" you speak of are intellectually and morally depraved individuals who would leave the poor and weak to suffer, while also preventing free expression and progressive ideals.

"right" on the other hand, a true dedication to conservative ideals, keeping the government out of every facet of business and personal control, is not an inherently evil, wrong, anti-intellectual position as many here would have you believe.

I despise "the right", but hold firm to conservative ideals that may or may not have anything to do with existing GOP, Tea Party, or Libertarian ideals.

"right" is considered "liberal" in modern America.

Many forms of Government have been tried and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.

-Winston Churchill

Anarchy is the only answer.

At the very least one where you only have the people vote for their representatives, not their laws.

I'd disagree to a point. I feel if that people were properly educated and understood the political climate they could do a fair job at deciding how SOME of the things in this country should get done.
 
So is PoliGAF aware that HR 3864 would basically defund Mass Transit completely by 2016?

It's pretty disgusting, actually. They have a shortfall in highway funding, so they are eliminating the portion of federal gas tax receipts that go to funding mass transit entirely. They're going to give it a one time $40B transfer for mass transit funding that will probably not quite pay for the mass transportation costs for the next five years. After that, all funding is up in the air. The major problem with this is that any improvements or mass transit projects span much longer periods of time, and since funding for them would be in doubt it would be very difficult to make those plans.

The real issue is that tax receipts from federal gas tax are down. Instead of doing the right thing and raising federal gas tax or pegging it to inflation they are instead gutting the future funding of mass transit. Mass transit is going to be the only thing that protects the average US citizen against rising energy costs in the future as it is.

And that would be fucking insane. Why the don't they listen to the oil companies that they so worship? The oil companies are telling them that OECD oil usage will pretty much drop between now and 2030 due to increased prices caused by difficulties in growing production and increased oil consumption by China and other emerging economies. Oil is a zero-sum-game for the USA at this point. And no, that is not me saying this . . . that the fucking oil companies saying this.
http://www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle800.do?categoryId=9037134&contentId=7068677

http://www.ifandp.com/article/009081.html

They want to legislate against the laws of physics, thermodynamics, and economics. Nature does not negotiate.

You can't have a certain future just because you want it.
 

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
"right" is considered "liberal" in modern America.

Which is why needless classifications are just that.

I consider myself conservative, but the titles and party affiliations are just a way for people to create enmity between themselves and people they probably agree with, more often than not.

GaimeGuy - I am all for true UHC, and the FAA is an obvious need, as are many things else, I am merely speaking in a general sense.
 
"The right" you speak of are intellectually and morally depraved individuals who would leave the poor and weak to suffer, while also preventing free expression and progressive ideals.

"right" on the other hand, a true dedication to conservative ideals, keeping the government out of every facet of business and personal control, is not an inherently evil, wrong, anti-intellectual position as many here would have you believe.

I despise "the right", but hold firm to conservative ideals that may or may not have anything to do with existing GOP, Tea Party, or Libertarian ideals.
I don't think it's inherently evil, wrong, or anti-intellectual. My difficulty with conservatism as an idea is that I, liberal as I am, also do not want the government involved in every facet of business or personal life. I think any people who do want such a thing, if they exist, are a risible minority. How it comes to be the case that your purportedly broad ideology (not intended pejoratively) represents resisting the most marginal and narrow of faction of society does not really make sense.
 

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
That control does not come all at once, nor even in great strides, but with the incessant passing of minor and small laws. Were it not for public demonstrations of disapproval, SOPA and PIPA could have been passed and implemented. That is just one example. The thing about it is, though, SOPA and PIPA are detestable and ill-meaning, but the law that does get passed is going to be a watered down version that sets precedent for the ass-raping to follow years down the line.
 

KtSlime

Member
I'd still disagree. The American right show up but then get "owned" by the rational. Some eventually convert some stay stubborn.

I think this is false and false in most all contexts. Rarely do irrational people ever enter an argument or conversation with the rational and leave thinking "wow, that rational explanation was really explanatory, I think I will change my mind!". They just become more stubborn. Their iconography really should have been the ass.
 
I think this is false and false in most all contexts. Rarely do irrational people ever enter an argument or conversation with the rational and leave thinking "wow, that rational explanation was really explanatory, I think I will change my mind!". They just become more stubborn. Their iconography really should have been the ass.

Well the people who refuse to acknowledge that George Bush didn't plot 9/11 or that Obama isn't a socialist Muslim from Kenya or that saying nigger is racist often get banned on this site.

I could also say the same with some of the few extreme left that come on here. You know the ones with the Lenin avatars who hold Hugo Chavez as the great leader of the 21st century?

Again thats why its common for juniors.
 
Where in the world is the Romney implosion coming from? I'm aware conservatives don't trust him, and have only really been supporting him due to his perceived elect-ability, and that he has had a few recent gaffes, but this is a pretty shocking dive in approval and popularity.
 

Tim-E

Member
Where in the world is the Romney implosion coming from? I'm aware conservatives don't trust him, and have only really been supporting him due to his perceived elect-ability, and that he has had a few recent gaffes, but this is a pretty shocking dive in approval and popularity.
Heaven.
 
Where in the world is the Romney implosion coming from? I'm aware conservatives don't trust him, and have only really been supporting him due to his perceived elect-ability, and that he has had a few recent gaffes, but this is a pretty shocking dive in approval and popularity.

it's tough to say exactly, but it's definitely florida related.

Mitt flooded the airwaves with negative attacks against gingrich, but no one really outside of florida saw them.

what DID get reported nationwide was that Mitt Romney was airing record breaking numbers of negative ads. I think I heard the number as Gingrich being outspent 6 to 1. And of the insane amount of spending he was doing to fund those ads, almost all of it via ultra wealthy donors funding him via superPAC's. throw in bad press re: paying 13% or so in taxes, and hiding money in the caymans around the same time, and Mitt Romney starts to look like he has a "wealth problem," or is trying to buy his candidacy.

Top that off with Santorum sweeping three primaries (nevermind that one was non binding) mostly because Mitt didn't bother to compete there, and the media was more than happy to run with a new narrative that mitt romney was "failing" yet again, and Santorum was the new conservative candidate of the day.

edit: not that I'm blaming "the media" per se- but media narratives (and polls) tend to take on a life of their own when influencing voters. Primary voters seem to be behaving sort of like investors- wildly overreacting to good and bad news in regards to polls.
 
That control does not come all at once, nor even in great strides, but with the incessant passing of minor and small laws. Were it not for public demonstrations of disapproval, SOPA and PIPA could have been passed and implemented. That is just one example. The thing about it is, though, SOPA and PIPA are detestable and ill-meaning, but the law that does get passed is going to be a watered down version that sets precedent for the ass-raping to follow years down the line.
I'm not saying government is (or even can be) perfect, but again, I don't see how it's the case that anyone wants government involved in everything. SOPA and PIPA were deeply flawed responses to a real problem--also, it should be noted that the ass-rapings in question here are truly being committed by an industry with lots of money to spend on getting its way. That the government is susceptible to that kind of influence is to some degree a problem that can be fixed, but it doesn't seem as if that should damn the whole enterprise.
 
I'm not saying government is (or even can be) perfect, but again, I don't see how it's the case that anyone wants government involved in everything. SOPA and PIPA were deeply flawed responses to a real problem--also, it should be noted that the ass-rapings in question here are truly being committed by an industry with lots of money to spend on getting its way. That the government is susceptible to that kind of influence is to some degree a problem that can be fixed, but it doesn't seem as if that should damn the whole enterprise.

Citation needed.

The effects of piracy are and have always been wildy overblown by the entertainment industry and it's lobbyists.
 

Puddles

Banned
AlteredBeast is only conservative compared to people in the European social democracies.

He's probably left-center for an American, from what I've seen of his posts.
 
Where in the world is the Romney implosion coming from? I'm aware conservatives don't trust him, and have only really been supporting him due to his perceived elect-ability, and that he has had a few recent gaffes, but this is a pretty shocking dive in approval and popularity.

Yeah, I'm wondering too. The 'poor people' gaffe was overblown & silly, IMHO. Perhaps too much stuff has piled up showing how out of touch he is: Corporations are people, $10K bet, 13.9% taxes, pink slips, Swiss bank accounts, love to fire people, etc.


This Man-on-dog vs dog-on-car fight is sure fun though. :)
 

Diablos

Member
I know it had been posted, I just wanted an excuse to use a PoliGAF classic image.

No, I mean the news.

@ppppolls: Romney's favorability nationally is now 29/57, including 32/55 with independents
@ppppolls: Romney's favorability nationally is now 29/57, including 32/55 with independents
@ppppolls: Romney's favorability nationally is now 29/57, including 32/55 with independents

Romney camp must be all like http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xRwR-li5t_A
 
Where in the world is the Romney implosion coming from? I'm aware conservatives don't trust him, and have only really been supporting him due to his perceived elect-ability, and that he has had a few recent gaffes, but this is a pretty shocking dive in approval and popularity.

I just hope the right continues to bitch about abortion and contraceptives, because it clearly is helping Santorum.
 
Yeah, I'm wondering too. The 'poor people' gaffe was overblown & silly, IMHO. Perhaps too much stuff has piled up showing how out of touch he is: Corporations are people, $10K bet, 13.9% taxes, pink slips, Swiss bank accounts, love to fire people, etc.


This Man-on-dog vs dog-on-car fight is sure fun though. :)

I forgot about the "I'm not concerned about poor people" gaffe. That was just icing on the cake and just reinforced the rest of the image

On one hand I want Santorum to win so Obama has an easier victory.

On the other hand, what if Santorum somehow wins? :/

Santorum winning out over Obama is the literal definition of impossible. The economy would literally have to melt down to "great depression" era levels for it to even be feasible.
 
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