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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

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AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
Right-wing radio will be SO much more entertaining.

I may take off work....

The single reason why I am hoping beyond hope that Santorum gets the nom and then loses by 20%+. Of course, then human garbage like Mark Levin and Monica Crowley will forget their assurance that a conservative candidate will win and just return to Obama is a marxist socialist.
 
PPP's tweeting that Romney's actually doing worse against Obama than Santorum (nationally and in Michigan).

What a horrid implosion. Michigan is understandable given Romney's "Let Detroit go bankrupt" but nationally surprises me, even if it's only by a point or two.
 
i honestly think Romney losing to Obama will end any future political office run for him

Not surprising: no party likes losers. Romney has clearly been rejected by republicans and a loss wouldn't endear him to them any more. If he can't manhandle a group of candidates this bad, how could he possibly deal with Christie, Daniels, McDonnell, or whatever qualified candidate enters the race in four years?

It's unlikely he could un-seat Kerry or Warren (assuming she wins in November) for senate in MA, he's not well liked in Michigan...this is his last shot.
 

Measley

Junior Member
The single reason why I am hoping beyond hope that Santorum gets the nom and then loses by 20%+. Of course, then human garbage like Mark Levin and Monica Crowley will forget their assurance that a conservative candidate will win and just return to Obama is a marxist socialist.

People like Mark Levin and Sean Hannity don't even believe the shit they spew on a daily basis. They're just doing it for the money. Sad thing is that they influence millions of people with their over-the-top rhetoric.

The hilarity will be from the callers who will think the world is going to end because Obama won another 4 year term.

PPP's tweeting that Romney's actually doing worse against Obama than Santorum (nationally and in Michigan).

What a horrid implosion. Michigan is understandable given Romney's "Let Detroit go bankrupt" but nationally surprises me, even if it's only by a point or two.

It was bound to happen once the economy started turning around.

A lot of people in the Midwest (Ohio, Wisconsin, Indiana, Pennsylvania) are benefiting from the resurgence of GM and Chrysler.
 

Ecotic

Member
It's a moot point though, Romney's obviously not interested in any political office except the Presidency. At heart Romney's a Mormon whose venturing out into the world to bring good honor for his clan. Only the Presidency has the kind of stature he's looking for.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Not surprising: no party likes losers. Romney has clearly been rejected by republicans and a loss wouldn't endear him to them any more. If he can't manhandle a group of candidates this bad, how could he possibly deal with Christie, Daniels, McDonnell, or whatever qualified candidate enters the race in four years?

It's unlikely he could un-seat Kerry or Warren (assuming she wins in November) for senate in MA, he's not well liked in Michigan...this is his last shot.

And Romney would be blamed for being responsible for losing to Obama. With the likely taken lesson to run a 'true' conservative next time around.
 

ToxicAdam

Member
Our great malaise

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Does it really matter which GOP loses?

Whether its Romney, Gingirch, or Santorum, America's right (note: not "conservatives") will irrationally convince themselves that they need to go in stronger with someone who is further right. The nation will likely changing direction if Obama succeeds and that's something many won't stand for but will have to.
 
Obama = Deval Patrick
Romney = Meg Whitman
USA 2012 = California 2010

Doesnt matter how much money the Kochs and the 1% throw in, americans say no. Cali had a democrat sweep all the way up and down the allot in 2010, and thats with hundreds of millions pouring in on the conservative side.

Oh, and moderate Whitman? She went hard right in the primary, and lost the independents even when she tried to get back to the center.

Romney wasnt paying attention.
 
Our great malaise

6a00d83451c45669e2016301508241970d-550wi

Well I can't blame them. The situation sucks and none of the candidates have any good solutions. Dems feel Obama is a sell-out. GOPers feel Romney isn't one of them and the rest of the crew were idiots, corrupt, horndogs, boring, etc. Everyone voting will be voting "against the other guy" instead of voting "for" the persons they pick. Welcome to my world.
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Our great malaise

6a00d83451c45669e2016301508241970d-550wi

They should have tried to show the independent enthusiasm depending on political leanings?

And we still can't say anything for sure about obama winning, especially since all that the GOP need to do to hurt his chances are cutting off either the payroll tax or unemployment benefits in time to make the economy sink again in the fall.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Does it really matter which GOP loses?

Whether its Romney, Gingirch, or Santorum, America's right (note: not "conservatives") will irrationally convince themselves that they need to go in stronger with someone who is further right. The nation will likely changing direction if Obama succeeds and that's something many won't stand for but will have to.

Pretty much the way I feel. The excuse will be the same. And why not? Did going full tea bagger hurt them in 2010, despite the fact that the country was fucked by the time 2008 came around?
 
Anybody catch The Daily Show tonight? good lord, he destroyed Santorum and the catholic church. So good.

Would be nice to see him on the factor telling O'Reilly how retarded it is for christians to claim to be a persecuted group in the US like when he called Fox out for attacking Common.

Pretty much the way I feel. The excuse will be the same. And why not? Did going full tea bagger hurt them in 2010, despite the fact that the country was fucked by the time 2008 came around?

Well after a certain point it will become too toxic to associate oneself with the tea party and far right. We already know that for a while now a majority of americans don't think highly of the Tea Party, and that will extend further if the GOP decide to be as adamant on social issues as they are now.

Right now the GOP isn't trying to win by having popular opinions. It's just trying to win by feeding the crazier part of its fanbase while hoping that the economy sinks again enough that independents will be swayed more by a anti-incumbent anger. If the economy doesn't sink they won't be able to win on views.

Seriously, there is no way for a GOP to win on the ideas that birth control is bad and that obama is a food stamp president.
 

I consider the part on Starbucks is false unless west Washington is represented with a columbian black hole. Something that bends time and space is the only scientific way to explain the numerous places where you can see one Starbucks from another Starbucks.

Also, the graph needs to have a third chart showing Dunkin Donuts per capita and a forth chart showing Dunkin Donuts and Starbucks per capita.
 
Pretty much the way I feel. The excuse will be the same. And why not? Did going full tea bagger hurt them in 2010, despite the fact that the country was fucked by the time 2008 came around?
Part of the reason the GOP came to power in 2010 was because they won independents. Independents were comfortable enough voting even for the teabaggers because 1) they largely kept quiet about their more extreme position (especially social issues, and the ones who made a big deal about them like Sharron Angle and Christine O'Donnell got destroyed), and 2) it was a referendum on Obama who was unpopular.

Those tea party congressmen that gave the GOP the majority are going to give them headaches this year. Had they nominated more establishment GOPers everywhere, the political miscalculations on the debt ceiling, payroll tax cut fight, Ryan plan etc. probably wouldn't have happened, and Boehner keeping his job would be a much safer bet even with an improving economy.
 

Jackson50

Member
Gelman's done an excellent job refuting the notion that liberals are haughty aristocrats while Republicans exemplify middle and working class virtues.
PPP's tweeting that Romney's actually doing worse against Obama than Santorum (nationally and in Michigan).

What a horrid implosion. Michigan is understandable given Romney's "Let Detroit go bankrupt" but nationally surprises me, even if it's only by a point or two.
I don't think it's terribly surprising. Although, I did not expect his bounce to be this pronounced. He benefited tremendously from Gingrich and Romney's bickering. While they were vituperating each other, Santorum played the respectable, insouciant conservative whose only concern is defeating Obama. Also, he's largely avoided scrutiny. His support should diminish in the forthcoming weeks as he's drawn into the campaign.
 

Al-ibn Kermit

Junior Member
The only advantage Romney would even bring now as a running-mate is that he might be good debating Biden. But I can see Biden just pulling out the "aw shucks, I'm a lovable asshole who rides the trains" and burying him.

You also have to consider that if he loses to Santorum, the shame may be too much for him to continue on the campaign trail. Santorum makes up for his lack of money by having crazy beliefs, it would pretty hard to follow that guy down the rabbit hole.
 
re:House

I was really bored and procrastinating so I decided to run some numbers wrt redistricting (with some guesswork for states that haven't completed their process yet). Assuming GOP gerrymanders hold to their intended partisan divides (e.g. the Ohio map is supposed to produce a 12-4 delegation for Republicans), the Democratic floor is about 200 seats. That's still a net gain of 7, but not enough to win back the House.

What it comes down to is if Democratic strength nationally is enough to overcome said gerrymanders and make strides in blue states as well. Democratic pickups in California, Illinois, New York, and Texas alone would probably be about 15 seats. It should be noted that the only really effective GOP gerrymander as far as netting seats goes is North Carolina (7-6 Dem advantage to probably 10-3 GOP). Everything else just shores up Republican incumbents, and are so lopsided from the 2010 results that it couldn't be much worse.

In order to win a majority, I'd say Democrats would have to beat the GOP gerrymanders and win 2 more seats each in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and 3 in Florida, salvage a few of their endangered seats in states like AR, NC and GA, and pick up some scattered seats elsewhere.

Like everything, it mostly comes down to how the economy is doing, and Obama's performance. If Obama wins by a hair, Democrats probably won't get too far past 200. If his margins he's recording against Romney and Santorum right now hold, they've got a pretty decent shot.
 
Hey guys, I've missed you all.

I took a break from politics mostly.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/02/14/politics/payroll-tax-negotiation/index.html?hpt=hp_t3

Oh hey, that wasn't expected. Good job house? I guess? Hardly makes up for your other mistakes/lack of actions.

I did want to let you all know I'm reading a very interesting book on Powerful Governments and Systems that turn regular ordinary people into Human Killing Machines. The book is titled, Human Killing Machines, by Adam Lankford. There is a section on modern day Iran '80-Now. Can't wait to get to that part.
 

War Peaceman

You're a big guy.
I did want to let you all know I'm reading a very interesting book on Powerful Governments and Systems that turn regular ordinary people into Human Killing Machines. The book is titled, Human Killing Machines, by Adam Lankford. There is a section on modern day Iran '80-Now. Can't wait to get to that part.

Sounds like a good read.
 

Effect

Member
Hmm. When people talk about "entitlement" spending going up don't they realize that part of that is because the population overall is simply increasing (also people are living longer) as well so more and more people end up being covered under the various programs? It's not like it exist in a bubble and can have the same amount spent each year. It has to scale. I don't think I ever hear people even touching on this part of it and it seems very important to me to put the discussion into proper context. Instead of republicans just jumping to cut, cut, cut as if it's simply a money only issue.
 
This race still seems like it is Romney's to lose. Losing Michigan is significant, but it still awards its delegates proportionally. Arizona is winner-take-all. Santorum doesn't have a strategy that brakes away from these midwest states that award proportionally.

And then there are those Ron Paul supporters who thinks he'll win all the delegates, everywhere, by the time of the convention...
 

markatisu

Member
Part of the reason the GOP came to power in 2010 was because they won independents. Independents were comfortable enough voting even for the teabaggers because 1) they largely kept quiet about their more extreme position (especially social issues, and the ones who made a big deal about them like Sharron Angle and Christine O'Donnell got destroyed), and 2) it was a referendum on Obama who was unpopular.

The main reason the GOP took power in 2010 is because the people who vote in 2008 and 2012 don't vote in midterms

It had nothing to do with any wave or great rebel against Obama and the Dems, the GOP just has better "regular" voters since they target the more reliable groups (Whites 45-70)
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Romney's latest op-ed on the auto bailout.
http://www.detroitnews.com/article/...-ed--Taxpayers-should-get-GM-shares’-proceeds

Something about union bosses

Reading it I can't figure out what his point is. I did enjoy this contrast though:

The president tells us that without his intervention things in Detroit would be worse. I believe that without his intervention things there would be better.

....

The course I recommended was eventually followed.
Then something about evil unions and the need to punish them.
 
from politicalwire:

Perry Suggests He May Run Again
Texas Gov. Rick Perry told Jon Karl that he's very likely to run again for president in 2016.

Said Perry: "Absolutely."

He also had some unsolicited advice for Mitt Romney: "Governor you gotta stand up in front of the American people and say what you did on health care in Massachusetts was wrong.You need to stand up and clearly distance yourself from the biggest issue that's out there with this president."

ignoring for a second that Rick Perry thinks he has a chance in hell again- look at that "unsolicited" advice.

Yes Rick Perry, what Mitt Romney REALLY needs to repair his image as inconsistent and inauthentic is to completely reverse course on a major campaign issue.

How this man manages to shower without drowning himself in the morning is a mystery to me.
 
Brokered convention. BELIEVE

p.s. Ron Paul 2012 as a third party candidate. He has nothing to lose as his seat goes buh byes next year.

please please please happen.

I still think Romney will be the nominee, but he's going to waste a ton of money and get really bruised and beaten up in the process.

the Newt-Mitt florida fight REALLY hurt him.
 

GaimeGuy

Volunteer Deputy Campaign Director, Obama for America '16
Hmm. When people talk about "entitlement" spending going up don't they realize that part of that is because the population overall is simply increasing (also people are living longer) as well so more and more people end up being covered under the various programs? It's not like it exist in a bubble and can have the same amount spent each year. It has to scale. I don't think I ever hear people even touching on this part of it and it seems very important to me to put the discussion into proper context. Instead of republicans just jumping to cut, cut, cut as if it's simply a money only issue.

Context is neglected by the masses which is why it's never mentioned in political speeches. Unfortunately it's also being neglected in policy discussion and debate, particularly on the right.

If you compare the GDP growth under obama vs government expenses, you'll find that spending increases have actually trailed GDP increases. In other words, the US government has become a smaller aspect of the overall economy during obama's presidency.

The REAL issue lies in tax revenues, which have actually decreased by a larger amount than expenses have increased (in other words, the changes in the deficit are more attributable to taxes going down than expenses going up).

Household/personal income and wealth has stagnated for all but the top tiers of society, and corporate profits are at an all time high. The growth in economic output and the wealth it creates is all concentrated in the ranks of the upper tiers of society and non-personal legal entities and institutions. Our tax code is structured in such a way that the only way for the government to grow in proportion with the economy is when growth is from the bottom-up, in personal income taxes.

Business taxes are set up in such a way that the larger a corporation is, and the more it grows, the lower it can reduce its tax burden. (Not to mention the larger a business is, the more it can lobby for tax exemptions from local communities..). Too many loopholes for corporations that scale regressively.

Capital gains can get measured discretely, but are actually taxed less aggressively than wages earned from continuous labor. I'm not saying investment is bad, but generally, it is more demanding on an individual to earn $1 million through labor than through investment, which is just your share of the fruits of another's labor. Low capital gains taxes compared to income taxes mean that the most demanding types of wealth generation get taxed the most, and the least demanding methods get taxed the least. This would be fine in a society where personal growth and enlightenment is done at one's leisure without the need to sacrifice or risk access to basic necessities, but our society is not modelled in such a way yet. Furthermore, because we are structured to provide conditional acquisition of basic necessities to individuals, and it is through labor we allow access, it means that we are naturally creating an aristocracy.


Man I've really gone off on a tangent....
 

Miletius

Member
Brokered convention. BELIEVE

p.s. Ron Paul 2012 as a third party candidate. He has nothing to lose as his seat goes buh byes next year.

I'd be pretty excited for a brokered convention only because it's such a rare phenomenon. I don't think it's likely, but it'll be one of those "aint it cool" stories if it comes to pass.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Hmm. When people talk about "entitlement" spending going up don't they realize that part of that is because the population overall is simply increasing (also people are living longer) as well so more and more people end up being covered under the various programs? It's not like it exist in a bubble and can have the same amount spent each year. It has to scale. I don't think I ever hear people even touching on this part of it and it seems very important to me to put the discussion into proper context. Instead of republicans just jumping to cut, cut, cut as if it's simply a money only issue.

Actually no people don't understand that. And to be fair the DEMs don't do a good enough job explaining that point enough either. Some do, but it should be a the number 1 talking point when talking about increasing cost.

But then again the GOP wouldn't care if the DEMs explained that well enough. Just like how Newt says that Obama is the food stamp President because more people use them now. Well of course more people are using food stamps with the unemployment rate over 8%.

And we all know the unemployment rate being high wasn't Obama's fault.
 
I see A27 was banned. I'm guessing it had to do with this post:

I suspect it might come to this. Say what you want about Israel, Iran is a place that wants to wipe Israel off the earth, and World Domination is one of their stated goals. That and the amount of people in Iran who have been brainwashed into thinking like their crazy radical government. I do understand that not everyone in Iran is like that though, just the majority

I never understood people like him, and him being 19 isn't an excuse for his asinine posts. He can research his arguments, but I think his problem is that he watches Fox News and takes the TP to every thread he posts on GAF.

Oh well. Maybe this'll teach him a lesson.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
World Domination is one of their stated goals. That and the amount of people in Iran who have been brainwashed into thinking like their crazy radical government. I do understand that not everyone in Iran is like that though, just the majority
Sigh. Yeah, this reeks of your basic Fox/right wing fear mongering and demonization. I hope his ban notice called out how inappropriate it is to drop stuff like this into a thread.

I still can't believe, after being called out on the kind of stuff he posted, he retorted with how he didn't need to research his opinions. Opinions should be formed from an understanding of fact. Reasonable people can disagree about things, but he refused to even inform his opinion when it was pointed out that he basing it on misinformation or a lack of understanding. Or the kind of stuff that just got him toasted.
 
Sigh. Yeah, this reeks of your basic Fox/right wing fear mongering and demonization. I hope his ban notice called out how inappropriate it is to drop stuff like this into a thread.

I still can't believe, after being called out on the kind of stuff he posted, he retorted with how he didn't need to research his opinions.
Opinions should be formed from an understanding of fact. Reasonable people can disagree about things, but he refused to even inform his opinion when it was pointed out that he basing it on misinformation or a lack of understanding. Or the kind of stuff that just got him toasted.

I didn't catch that, LOL.

If his ban is temporary, then he's going on my ignore list.
 
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